During a press briefing, US Representative to NATO Julianne Smith said that the US is not particularly supportive of Ukraine going after targets inside Russia, sparking understandable outrage. I echo this sentiment. In this context, I think we should look at a few key points:
Firstly, when a military adversary strategically positions hubs and vital industries, integral to its military operations, within its territory, targeting becomes necessary for achieving victory. Therefore, statements like those made by the US representative may seem either ill-informed or hypocritical, given that the US used this approach in almost every conventional war, such as WW2, Desert Storm, or the 2003 Iraq War. For instance, during the Desert Storm air campaign, 17 out of 20 generating plants were damaged or destroyed, with 11 considered total losses.
While Russia has attempted to reach similar objectives in Ukraine over the past years with partial success, it defies logic and reason why Ukraine should refrain from hitting targets crucial to Russian forces and its military complex.
Secondly, there's a diplomatic aspect to consider. It's unfair to blame the representative herself solely for the US policy stance, which likely stems from the current administration's security approach. While the US has the right to impose restrictions on supplied weaponry, even though it's not helpful, public dissatisfaction with Ukrainian strikes made by Ukrainian weaponry is harmful.
It may appear as mature diplomacy to certain circles in Washington DC, but it's viewed as a weakness by the Russian side, potentially inviting further escalation. This is evident in Russia's continued escalation of the war and deployment of North Korean ballistic missiles to target locations within Ukraine.
When we compare straightforward facts and metrics between 2024 and 2022, it's clear that both the number of participants and the geographical dimension of the war have grown. If anything, it just underscores the glaring failure of the current administration's approach focused on containment and de-escalation.
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From the Barents Sea to China’s southern coast, Russia’s tanker fleet has been quietly tracked by Ukrainians. Thanks to an investigation by the analytical group Dallas Park, we now know more. With their permission, I analyzed the report and put together a thread of key takeaways:
2/ Built in 2011 and flagged in the Marshall Islands as SUEZ VASILIS, the oil tanker was reflagged to Liberia in 2021 and renamed NAUTILUS I. In November 2022, after Russia’s invasion, it changed owners, managers, flag, and name again, becoming SABLE under the Panama
3/ In November 2023, Mikhail Gushchin became the ship’s master, according to a signed contract in Primorsk, Russia. At the time, the vessel was managed by Prominent Shipmanagement Limited.
One and a half months after the successful Operation Spiderweb, which targeted and destroyed Russian strategic bombers, our latest satellite imagery shows bomber wreckage still at several airfields, with the largest concentration at Belaya. A thread with updates on airbases:
2/ Additional analysis of bases such as Olenya and Engels-2, where Russian strategic bombers are deployed, shows no visible effort to reinforce the airfields. Olenya appears more cleared from debris than Belaya Airbase, but bomber wreckage remains visible on the apron.
3/ At Khalino Airbase, previously targeted by Ukrainian forces, Russian troops appear to have completed or nearly completed around 10 reinforced shelters with soil cover, 12 concrete shelters without it, and 8 hangar-style structures positioned on the aprons.
Mobilization, payouts, demographics, and desertions are central factors shaping the war’s trajectory. Thanks to weekly notes by the Conflict Intelligence Team, we have some data to analyze the current state of affairs in Russia. Below are some key points from the past two weeks:
2/ The sign-up bonus for contracts with the Ministry of Defense in the Novosibirsk region will double from 800,000 rubles ($10200), set in December 2024, to 1.6 million rubles ($20400) between July 1 and September 30. An additional 400,000 will be given from the federal budget
3/ The sign-up bonus with the Ministry of Defense in Vladimir region has been raised to 2.1 million rubles ($26,700) for the period from July 1 to September 30. This marks the third increase in 2025, following rises to 1 million rubles in January and 1.6 million in April.
Did you know Russia’s Su-34 and Su-35S jets, used in bombing campaigns, contain over 1,100 microelectronic parts from 11 Global Export Control Coalition countries? A new joint investigation by IPHR, NAKO, and Hunterbrook uncovers the supply chain. 🧵Thread with key takeaways:
2/ Most components come from the US, but the supply chain spans Germany to Japan. Of 891 parts from 138 firms, 59% are under strict export controls. 36.3% of shipments were small-value (less than $10000), pointing at intermediaries and shell companies use to evade sanctions
3/ Despite sweeping sanctions, Russia continues to receive Western semiconductors at industrial scale. An analysis of more than 180,000 customs records from 2023 shows approximately $805.6 million worth of microelectronics arriving from top-tier global suppliers.
Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Russia has launched 28,743 Shahed/Geran drones at Ukraine - 2,736 of them in June of this year, according to President Zelensky. Our team took a brief look at the Shahed numbers and noted the following trends and figures🧵:
2/ The 2,736 drones launched in June, many targeting Kyiv, make up nearly 10% of the total, proving growing production. This aligns with earlier warnings from Ukrainian intelligence, which estimated Russia’s monthly output at around 2700 Shahed-type UAVs and roughly 2500 decoys
3/ Ukrainian Air Force data shows 5,438 drones of this type were launched at Ukraine in June 2025 - about twice the number cited by Zelensky. The gap likely comes from the Air Force counting both Geran and decoys UAVs, while Zelensky referred only to strictly Geran drones