During a press briefing, US Representative to NATO Julianne Smith said that the US is not particularly supportive of Ukraine going after targets inside Russia, sparking understandable outrage. I echo this sentiment. In this context, I think we should look at a few key points:
Firstly, when a military adversary strategically positions hubs and vital industries, integral to its military operations, within its territory, targeting becomes necessary for achieving victory. Therefore, statements like those made by the US representative may seem either ill-informed or hypocritical, given that the US used this approach in almost every conventional war, such as WW2, Desert Storm, or the 2003 Iraq War. For instance, during the Desert Storm air campaign, 17 out of 20 generating plants were damaged or destroyed, with 11 considered total losses.
While Russia has attempted to reach similar objectives in Ukraine over the past years with partial success, it defies logic and reason why Ukraine should refrain from hitting targets crucial to Russian forces and its military complex.
Secondly, there's a diplomatic aspect to consider. It's unfair to blame the representative herself solely for the US policy stance, which likely stems from the current administration's security approach. While the US has the right to impose restrictions on supplied weaponry, even though it's not helpful, public dissatisfaction with Ukrainian strikes made by Ukrainian weaponry is harmful.
It may appear as mature diplomacy to certain circles in Washington DC, but it's viewed as a weakness by the Russian side, potentially inviting further escalation. This is evident in Russia's continued escalation of the war and deployment of North Korean ballistic missiles to target locations within Ukraine.
When we compare straightforward facts and metrics between 2024 and 2022, it's clear that both the number of participants and the geographical dimension of the war have grown. If anything, it just underscores the glaring failure of the current administration's approach focused on containment and de-escalation.
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Russia aim to manufacture up to 120,000 glide bombs this year, including 500 of a new, longer-range version capable of flying up to 200 km from the point of release, according to a representative of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence. 🧵Thread with data mentioned in the interview:
2/ Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, deputy head of Ukraine's Defence Intelligence, disclosed that Russian forces are firing between 200 and 250 glide bombs every day. Last month, the daily average was about 170, according to data from the defence ministry quoted by Reuters.
3/ He added that Russia is working on modifications that would allow glide bombs to fly up to 400 km, enabling Russia to strike deep without using missiles. Skibitskyi provided estimates for Russian drone production: Russia is expected to produce around 70,000 long-range drones
У США спалахнув гучний скандал після того, як Конгресовий комітет опублікував переписку Джеффрі Епштейна, відомого організатора зустрічей із неповнолітніми та впливовими людьми. Серед тих, хто згадується у листах - Дональд Трамп. Крім того, у документах не обійшлось без росіян:
2/ Зокрема, у листі Джеффрі Епштейна до Торб’єрна Ягланда від 24.06.2018 р. він зазначав: «Чуркін був чудовим. Після наших розмов він зрозумів Трампа. Це не складно - йому потрібно лише побачити щось, щоб зрозуміти, усе дуже просто». (Чуркін на той час був постпердом РФ при ООН)
3/ Його наступна відповідь звучала так: "Я думаю, ви могли б запропонувати Путіну, щоб Лавров поспілкувався зі мною і отримав необхідне розуміння. Віталій Чуркін раніше це робив, але він помер. ? !"
На той час, Торб'єрн був Генеральним секретарем Ради Європи
A few broad observations on the course of war, based on observations, discussions with officers, soldiers, and analysts, data, and other relevant sources. I will begin with a high-level sociopolitical overview before gradually moving toward operational-tactical level. 🧵Thread:
2/ Overall, the situation for Ukraine has not improved since last year. Ukraine has markedly increased its long-range strike capabilities, which have very tangible effects across Russian society. However, the battlefield initiative remains with Russia, much as it did most of 2024
3/ A plausible Ukrainian "victory" approach can be summarized as: disrupt logistics, degrade the Russian economy, and avoid catastrophic operational collapses. Russia’s apparent approach is simpler: keep pressing until Ukraine exhausts its will or physical capacity to resist.
According to Russian milblogger Fighterbomber, who has a wide network within the Russian Air Force, an Il-76 was shot down in Sudan on November 4 by the Rapid Support Forces. According to him, the aircraft had been purchased in Kyrgyzstan a month and a half ago for $12 million
2/ A video showing a burning object falling from the sky, likely the claimed Il-76, has also been recorded and published
3/ While I do not have solid sources in Sudan, one of my contacts located there has confirmed that reports about a downed Il-76 have been circulating within the RSF since yesterday. Government forces are actively using the Air Force to supply besieged cities
Some observers have described the fall of Pokrovsk as “sudden.” That may be true if one followed the wrong analysts. In reality, the defense deterioration was apparent as early as 2024 and became unmistakable by 2025, as the underlying dynamics made the outcome nearly inevitable:
2/ That the city continued to hold out until November is, in itself, an achievement. Still, the rapid loss of positions in summer/fall 2024, which left logistics vulnerable and exposed the flanks, combined with manpower shortages, largely dictated the outcome now unfolding
3/ Launching a counteroffensive capable of retaking the city and securing its flanks, or even holding for another year, would have required diverting significant resources from other sectors of the front, a tradeoff that would result in disastrous situation elsewhere.
North Korea and Russia are rapidly building their first road bridge to enhance logistics and expand military and economic ties. Frontelligence Insight has analyzed satellite imagery and project documents to estimate its completion and potential impact. 🧵Thread:
2/ Today, Russia and North Korea have no direct road connection. The only land crossing is the 1950s-era Korea - Russia Friendship Railroad Bridge. Air and maritime routes, via Pyongyang Airport and ports like Rajin, exist, but their capacity and costs are often suboptimal.
3/ In the summer of 2024, Russia confirmed plans to build a road bridge over the Tumen River, with construction led by Russia’s TunnelYuzhStroy. The project is budgeted at ~9 billion rubles (~$110M), spanning 4.7 km in total, with the bridge itself about 1 km long