During a press briefing, US Representative to NATO Julianne Smith said that the US is not particularly supportive of Ukraine going after targets inside Russia, sparking understandable outrage. I echo this sentiment. In this context, I think we should look at a few key points:
Firstly, when a military adversary strategically positions hubs and vital industries, integral to its military operations, within its territory, targeting becomes necessary for achieving victory. Therefore, statements like those made by the US representative may seem either ill-informed or hypocritical, given that the US used this approach in almost every conventional war, such as WW2, Desert Storm, or the 2003 Iraq War. For instance, during the Desert Storm air campaign, 17 out of 20 generating plants were damaged or destroyed, with 11 considered total losses.
While Russia has attempted to reach similar objectives in Ukraine over the past years with partial success, it defies logic and reason why Ukraine should refrain from hitting targets crucial to Russian forces and its military complex.
Secondly, there's a diplomatic aspect to consider. It's unfair to blame the representative herself solely for the US policy stance, which likely stems from the current administration's security approach. While the US has the right to impose restrictions on supplied weaponry, even though it's not helpful, public dissatisfaction with Ukrainian strikes made by Ukrainian weaponry is harmful.
It may appear as mature diplomacy to certain circles in Washington DC, but it's viewed as a weakness by the Russian side, potentially inviting further escalation. This is evident in Russia's continued escalation of the war and deployment of North Korean ballistic missiles to target locations within Ukraine.
When we compare straightforward facts and metrics between 2024 and 2022, it's clear that both the number of participants and the geographical dimension of the war have grown. If anything, it just underscores the glaring failure of the current administration's approach focused on containment and de-escalation.
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Mobilization, payouts, demographics, and desertions are central factors shaping the war’s trajectory. Thanks to weekly notes by the Conflict Intelligence Team, we have some data to analyze the current state of affairs in Russia. Below are some key points from the past two weeks:
2/ The sign-up bonus for contracts with the Ministry of Defense in the Novosibirsk region will double from 800,000 rubles ($10200), set in December 2024, to 1.6 million rubles ($20400) between July 1 and September 30. An additional 400,000 will be given from the federal budget
3/ The sign-up bonus with the Ministry of Defense in Vladimir region has been raised to 2.1 million rubles ($26,700) for the period from July 1 to September 30. This marks the third increase in 2025, following rises to 1 million rubles in January and 1.6 million in April.
Did you know Russia’s Su-34 and Su-35S jets, used in bombing campaigns, contain over 1,100 microelectronic parts from 11 Global Export Control Coalition countries? A new joint investigation by IPHR, NAKO, and Hunterbrook uncovers the supply chain. 🧵Thread with key takeaways:
2/ Most components come from the US, but the supply chain spans Germany to Japan. Of 891 parts from 138 firms, 59% are under strict export controls. 36.3% of shipments were small-value (less than $10000), pointing at intermediaries and shell companies use to evade sanctions
3/ Despite sweeping sanctions, Russia continues to receive Western semiconductors at industrial scale. An analysis of more than 180,000 customs records from 2023 shows approximately $805.6 million worth of microelectronics arriving from top-tier global suppliers.
Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Russia has launched 28,743 Shahed/Geran drones at Ukraine - 2,736 of them in June of this year, according to President Zelensky. Our team took a brief look at the Shahed numbers and noted the following trends and figures🧵:
2/ The 2,736 drones launched in June, many targeting Kyiv, make up nearly 10% of the total, proving growing production. This aligns with earlier warnings from Ukrainian intelligence, which estimated Russia’s monthly output at around 2700 Shahed-type UAVs and roughly 2500 decoys
3/ Ukrainian Air Force data shows 5,438 drones of this type were launched at Ukraine in June 2025 - about twice the number cited by Zelensky. The gap likely comes from the Air Force counting both Geran and decoys UAVs, while Zelensky referred only to strictly Geran drones
As Ukraine marked Naval Forces Day, Russia’s Black Sea Fleet started the morning fending off a joint air and sea drone attack on its base in Novorossiysk. Early footage shows no major damage. Our team reviewed satellite imagery from the day before, here’s what we know🧵:
2/ As of July 5, four Kilo-class diesel-electric submarines were present at the Novorossiysk naval base - which is nearly the entire remaining operational submarine force of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. These submarines are equipped to launch Kalibr cruise missiles.
3/ Valuable naval assets, including an Admiral Grigorovich-class frigates, minesweepers, patrol boats, and corvettes, were anchored in the bay at the time of the attack. The strike occurred overnight, and by late morning, local authorities declared the situation to be safe
In recent months, Russia has focused on drone strikes deeper behind the front, aiming to disrupt Ukraine’s supply lines. In return, Ukraine has turned to hitting Russian drone teams. In an effort called "Dronocide," Ukrainian troops found 90 suspected drone sites in Zaporizhzhia
2/ The Armed Forces of Ukraine claim that 42 enemy positions were destroyed or heavily damaged in precision strikes. Notably, it does seem that the operation was a coordinated joint efforts between the Air Force, Defense Intelligence, drone units, and a land forces brigade.
3/ Coordination between various branches and units has long been a persistent issue for the Armed Forces. But based on this limited evidence presented in the video, there are optimistic signs that coordination and joint execution is improving to some degree.