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Alexander Stubb Profile picture
@alexstubb
Apr 3 • 1 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Thank you @ZelenskyyUa for a warm welcome in Kyiv. We had a good discussion on Finland’s strong and continuing support to Ukraine, the wider European perspective and Ukraine’s Peace Formula, which Finland wholeheartedly supports. President Zelensky also briefed me on the current situation on the front lines. My main message: Finland is with you, as long as it takes.Image

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More from @alexstubb

Alexander Stubb Profile picture
Oct 3, 2022
The war in Ukraine has short-, medium- and long-term ramifications. Few reflections on all three after Putin’s two recent speeches and the situation on the ground. Base case is still the same: Putin and Russia growing increasingly desperate. A 15 point🧵.

1/15
First, in the SHORT TERM it is naturally about war and peace. Russia’s strategy has not changed. The aim is to secure a land link to the Crimean peninsula and continue the weaponisation of energy. Testing limits of hybrid warfare by blowing up the Nord Stream pipeline.

2/15
The referenda and annexation of semi-occupied regions, combined with the partial and and times farcical mobilisation of troops, are a sign of desperation from Putin. He is losing on the battlefield, at home and abroad. Therefore strong language on nukes and nation.

3/15
Read 15 tweets
Alexander Stubb Profile picture
Sep 21, 2022
My first reactions to Putin’s speech this morning.

1. We are entering a new phase in the war.
2. Putin is desperate, but take him seriously.
3. We are in this for the long haul - think unpredictable.

A🧵 of five initial questions and conclusions.

1/7
What did he say?

1. Partial mobilisation of 300K (new).
2. Further annexation of regions (old) and referenda (new).
3. Threat of using nuclear weapons (old).

Conclusion: unlikely any of the three will work.

2/7
Why did he say it now?

1. He is in trouble both militarily and politically.
2. Without mobilisation Russia might potentially lose the war.
3. After latest losses - sends message of escalation.

Conclusion: even if bluffing, take him seriously.

3/7
Read 7 tweets
Alexander Stubb Profile picture
Jul 6, 2022
Today’s thriller thread:

Decided to make my trip to the @NHL Draft in Montreal a bit more interesting by leaving my suitcase on the first train on my way to Fuimicino Airport in Rome.

So, here is how it all went.

1/4
1. Told conductor on local train what happened.

2. He called my first train and asked his colleague to drop off the back at Termini (Rome Central).

3. I jumped off the local train and reversed back to Tiburtina.

4. Taxi strike. Took metro to Termini.

2/4
5. As instructed went to Platform 1. Nothing.

6. As instructed went to the Police. Nothing.

7. Asked to go to luggage centre. Nothing.

8. Asked to go to info point. Nothing.

9. Asked to go to Customer Care. Nothing.

10. Asked to go to baggage point. Bingo!

3/4
Read 4 tweets
Alexander Stubb Profile picture
May 19, 2022
This is a brief personal thread 🧵 a few days after the Finnish Parliament voted with an overwhealming majority - 188 in favour and 8 against - for Nato membership. I have been an advocate of Nato membership for thirty years. Been asked how I feel now. So, here we go.

1/10
I guess my first feeling is one of relief. Not that I was worried about the vote, but more about the road that lead us here. With the wisdom of hindshight, there was no need to worry. The de facto decision on Finnish Nato membership was taken on 24 February.

2/10
I wrote a longish journal entry in the early morning hours of Putin’s attack on Ukraine. Looking back at it three months later shows a mixed feeling of anger, worry and determination. Was not difficult to see that the war would shake security in Europe.

3/10
Read 11 tweets
Alexander Stubb Profile picture
May 16, 2022
We EU-nerds love to talk about the future of Europe in all forms and shapes. Been doing it in speeches, articles and books for the past 30 years. And in practice by negotiating the Amsterdam, Nice and Lisbon treaties. So here we go with another 10 point thread. 🧵

1/10
Ukraine is a game changer for the future of Europe. A split Europe with an authoritarian Russia on one side, and 40 democratic states on the other. This will force Europe to think about how it organises itself in the future. Crucial to plan ahead and start immediately.

2/10
A good starting point is to look at different memberships in two of the most important institutions, namely @NATO and the EU. Some are members of both. Some in one or the other. Some in neither. Some want to join both. Some want to stay outside. Open and free choice.

3/10
Read 11 tweets
Alexander Stubb Profile picture
May 10, 2022
We human beings have a tendency to try to find order in a world of disorder. It is our way of making sense of a world which often lacks it. This ten point thread 🧵 is an attempt to simplify and understand an emerging WORLD ORDER in an era of DISORDER. Work in progress.

1/10
During the Cold War the world seemed rather orderly. It was bipolar and ideological. The US and its allies spoke the language of democracy, capitalism and freedom. The Soviet Union and its subjects represented autocracy, communism and control. The US came out on top.

2/10
The early Post Cold War era was unipolar. It was driven by the US and a belief in the ”end of history”. The idea was that all of the world’s 200 nation states would eventually become liberal democracies, market economies and advocates of globalisation. This did not happen.

3/10
Read 11 tweets

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