Sergej Sumlenny, LL.M Profile picture
Apr 5 8 tweets 2 min read Read on X
THREAD Some thoughts on Ukraine-US tension amid Ukraine's Russia strikes:
1) US administration's first interest is to preserve Russia from defeat and collapse, not to ensure Ukraine's victory
2) Ukraine's interest to win is much stronger then the US Interest to keep status quo /1
3) Ukraine will continue striking Russia, as Ukraine has a lot to win and everything to lose if Ukraine stops, while the US has not that much either win or lose;
3.1) That is why the US will continue criticise Ukraine, but will have to accept Ukraine's strikes vs. Russia; /2
4) Important is, that Ukraine seems to have understood: in a case they follow terrible advice from Biden's incapable administration, there will be no reward for that (but a lot of harm from Russia), and if they do not, and continue striking RU, there will be no bad consequence /3
5) Therefore, US impotence has at least one good consequence: Ukraine may ignore US administration and fight its war for Ukraine's right to live. Russia's leverage within Biden's administration is still huge, but paradoxically, it means nothing. /4
6) Ironically, this elimination of the US role in Ukraine was 100% Biden-made. Under Biden, the US reduced its military support for Ukraine to minimum, and let MAGA hijack the process. Ukraine effectively gets almost nothing from the US now. But UA produces long-range drones. /5
6.1) So how do you plan to influence Ukraine's behaviour vs. Russia now? Ukraine is under rain of Russia's missiles, but can hit Russia's nerve knots with own-produced drones. There is no place for the US in this fight anymore, the Ukrainians will defeat Russia on their own. /6
6.1) The last night's example: Ukraine hit a Russian airfield in Russian Rostov region, allegedly destroying six high-value bomber jets, and attacked airbase Engels where Russian strategic bombers are stationed. This was done with Ukraine-produced drones. Try to influence that /7
6.2) Abandoning your ally for months amid the largest existential challenge for this ally automatically disqualifies you as one who has influence on this ally. So simple. Of course, Ukraine won't openly say this, but its actions will speak loud: it will continue hitting Russia /8

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More from @sumlenny

Nov 6
A large number of genuine Ukrainian accounts I follow on different social media (and in many cases I personally know people behind them) are looking positively towards Trump's presidency, and see him as a hope for any true action. This shows how much Biden has pissed off Ukraine.
I stress: I don't say if Trump is good or bad. I say: many Ukrainians who risk their life daily, many at the front, are glad that Biden's team leaves the stage. They are well aware of Trump's ambiguity, and of what he & his team said about 🇺🇦 or Putin. Still they are relieved.
Biden's team went to this catastrophe deliberately and for years. From Ukraine's hero who has provided Ukraine with Javelins - to a pity old delusional man who is afraid of the might of the country he runs.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 2
THREAD The real problem in communication btw Ukraine and its allies is the total lack of a common post-war world vision ➡️ the lack of a common goal. 🇺🇦 goal is to guarantee survival of the 🇺🇦 state AND of 🇺🇦nation, AND to achieve sustainable security for them in the future. 1/8
This goal is impossible to achieve without a full military defeat of Russia, and either significant demilitarization of Russia, or a significant increase of Ukraine’s military capacities, including gigantic long-range strike capacities (cruise missiles and Air Force). 2/8
The Western goal is different. While it’s not aimed against Ukraine per se
and would even welcome Ukraine’s survival, first of all it is aimed at prevention of Russia’s uncontrolled collapse, which associates with global risks (while Ukraine’s defeat is seen as a local risk). 3/8
Read 9 tweets
Oct 30
I have just return from a very interesting NATO conference in Yerevan, Armenia. As much as the conference was amazing, the contrast to practically Russia-occupied country was grotesque. Lots of signs of Russia’s dominance: from cinema Moscow to purely Russian advertising /1 Image
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Russian plates on luxury cars, Russian announcements regarding the Eurasian Economic Union in the airport, Russian business lounges, tasteless Russian ad of “Crude Oil Vodka” /2 Image
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I felt absolutely unsafe every minute outside of the group. The level of subordination is crazy. Russian flags even on sweets shops, and even “Armenian-Chinese Friendship Society” addresses people in Russian (!) not in Armenian or Chinese. /3 Image
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Read 4 tweets
Oct 1
The event at Germany’s army academy @FueAkBwHH has started. Ukraine‘s honorary consul Iryna Tybinka: Ukrainians are tired, but everyone understands: we have no choice but to fight. Those who demand a sort of cease fire, or stop of arms delivery, demand our death. /1
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Marcus @MarcusFaber: Ukrainians defend us all with their fight, we need to be thankful. I visit Ukraine regularly, have been five times in Ukraine, and speak with civilians and NGOs, they know why they fight. /2
@MarcusFaber Hendrik Remmel from #GIDS: Ukraine is in strategic defensive since a year, its army's challenges are the same. First of all the lack of manpower. Ukraine needs tanks, IFVs, other equipment, to achieve dominance vs. Russia, as Russia's strategy is now: "we hold longer than UA". /3
Read 12 tweets
Sep 18
A marvelous explosion of a Russian ammunition depot in Toropets, Tver region, north-west from Moscow, after a Ukrainian drone has hit it last night.
More video from this morning in Russian #Tver region where an ammunition depot has been demilitarized by a Ukrainian drone.
International seismic stations have recorded up to 15 massive explosions equivalent to earthquakes of 2.0 to 3.2 magnitude, likely related to secondary explosions in a Russian Toropets ammunition depot in Tver region, hit last night by a Ukrainian drone. Image
Read 5 tweets
Aug 29
Why does the @POTUS administration effectively support Russia in this war? It’s not because they like Putin (like Trump does). The reason is different (but makes no difference in the result)
1) Biden’s team thinks in categories of red lines. This means, a superpower has core… /1
…interests. Everything outside of them is just spare change. But core interests may not be violated. If they do, the very existence of the superpower is threatened, and it goes into survival rage mode.
2) Biden’s delusional team thinks, Ukraine is not a core thing for Russia /2
They falsely believe, Ukraine war for Russia is something like Vietnam war for the U.S. Russia has its interests, but as soon as Russia starts suffering too high price, it will pull back. Because Ukraine is not Russia’s core interest. But IF the Ukrainians hit Russia’s core… /3
Read 9 tweets

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