Markus Jonsson Profile picture
Apr 6 10 tweets 3 min read Read on X
The Baltic Jammer is in Kaliningrad.

5th proof, 3rd method.

This time with numbers on likelyhood. We just need a statistician to tell us how sure we are. Surely over 9000.

@PajalaJussi computed how many radio horizons of first jammed plane intersect. Here, heatmapped. Image
The Baltic Jammer is in Kaliningrad. 5th proof, 3rd method.

This time with numbers on likelyhood. We just need a statistician to tell us how sure we are.

@PajalaJussi computed how many radio horizons of first jammed plane intersect. Here, all 10x10km cells. Image
This part of the map is obviously the most interesting one. The KALININGRAD part.

Top cells in KGD have +60k circles intersecting, mean is around 4k.

All the top cells (ie most likely ones) are concentrated around the central cape of KGD, where also the highest peaks are. Image
Method is best described in code:

In short this method checks for all 25-165° intersections of radio horizon circles and counts how many there are in each 10x10km cell.

It uses my previous set of only first jammed positions from Feb & Mar 2024. N=11496github.com/jpajala/GpsJam…
For selection of points see this and the following posts:

This is the distribution of numbers of circles intersecting in each cell. Very left-heavy.

Input on feasible stat-testing welcome. Image
Fortunately, the Baltic Jammer has quited down drastically now.
Last 7 days have only seen activity very limited but in coverage and in length of time.
A few beams against Gdansk airport, but that seems to be it. Still too few observations to say anything certain. Image
More persons are recording it now. A few people are working on other localization project. More to come unless Russian EW forces shut it down fully.

Many thanks to @lemonodor @rundradion @giammaiot2 @VelvetBlade @Dmojavensis @EyeofStolas for input.
And for data!airplanes.live

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More from @auonsson

Mar 30
The Baltic Jammer is in Kaliningrad.

The Baltic Jammer is a Russian GPS jammer that since Dec -23 has affected the navigation of 1000's of civilian & military aircraft.

Old method, new dataset, even more obvious.

Finally, data to disprove me. Thread 🧵 Image
These maps depict density of radio horizons calculated from the first positions where 11496 aircrafts lost navigation from Feb to now. Altitude based method.

Below more zoom levels. There is no longer any doubt in my mind. The Jammer is in Kaliningrad, I believe at the coast.
Image
Image
I made this analysis twice before, with less refiend data.

Here is todays refined set but run with the same settings as in January. The Baltic Jammer is clearly in Kaliningrad.

Link to previous analysis:
Image
Read 11 tweets
Mar 24
Baltic Jammer has been running for 47 consecutive hours making this the longest run ever.

Red dots show affected area. Yesterday at 22:00Z it changed into a new configuration, green dots.

1614 unique airplanes affected, most of them civilian airliners. Image
Green dot map show the new configuration fully focused on almost exlusively Polish controlled airspace (Warzawa FIR), leaving a nice clear corridor for Kaliningrad-flights. Image
Here you can see the full metrics for last 3 days. These might need adjustment since the jammer is changing. Image
Read 10 tweets
Mar 18
Today the Baltic Jammer changed. Starting with normal characteristic yesterday, after running for ~11h 0720Z there was a sudden change in area affected.

A NW sector of about 140°-180° is spared from GPS-jamming since then. It has made the problem almost exclusively Polish.
Still images of the periods before and after 0720 this morning. Each dot is a message of NIC 1-6 (low GPS quality).

The Estonia area is another jamming process, with other temporality/spatiality. It is almost always on.
Image
Image
Me and @rundradion discovered it about the same time from our plots.
Suddenly the metrics were different, not clear, not fully on.
When its off the % is at 0 with very few blips, see the period preceeding yesterdays start up.

Image
Read 5 tweets
Mar 16
Last 46 hours Baltic Jammer has been running in south Baltics.

At least 873 unique aircrafts has had their navigation equipment jammed. Each one a passenger jet filled with civilians.

E.g. Ryanairs SP-RKS has been without GPS for at least 2 hours going in and out of Vilnius. Image
SP-RKS's routes and top 43 planes with longest periods affected.
Image
Image
is seeing a very similar distribution for yesterday. Tonights update will look similar. gpsjam.org
Image
Read 7 tweets
Jan 29
Baltic Jammer/strange phenomenon started.

Much stats for various regions, thread.

Count (last 36h) or percentage of aircrafts (last 76h) reporting low navigational accuracy (NIC 1-6) via their transponders.

First, a combined plot of counts, last 36 hours. Europe, top dog. Image
For background, see previous posts.
Europe: count and percentage affected aircrafts. 36 and 76 hours respectively.
Image
Image
Read 13 tweets
Jan 17
Baltic Jammer investigation: metrics.

Thread. Image
To detect aircrafts having their GPS/GNSS jammed I have used the accuracy value NIC, and as a cutoff chosen 1-6 for individual flights. This has worked well and managed to find confirmed jammed flights.

But, the last days I have found suspiciously widespread results with this. Image
1-6 NIC reports to the border of my coverage: Italy, Switzerland, France....

This seems impossible. Indicating too high sensitivity.
I ran the numbers. Plot shows 'Blue: % NIC 1-6' and 'Green: Average NIC' Pink: new cutoff

Plot hints that my cutoff might be too un-sensitive! Image
Read 13 tweets

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