1/ I've been asked several times since I started writing threads on the updated AFV counts if any Russian storage base has been depleted of equipment. Well, it's not that simple, but I figured it's worth writing a short thread about it.
https://x.com/AirElbonia/status/1766519783959179672
2/ Of the major Russian military storage bases, only the 1295th is close to being emptied out, like I explained here:
https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1771849113451040993
3/ However, let's look at it more closely. This was the 1295th in late 2021. It stored almost a hundred BTR-50s, close to 200 BMP-1s, a similar number of T-54/55s and T-62s, and a small number of MT-LBs, BRDM-2s and ARVs, plus a huge pile of scrapped hulls. Overall, not that impressive equipment quality-wise, but big nonetheless.
4/ By October 2023 only 1 BTR-50, 10 MT-LBs, 13 BRDM-2s, 104 BMP-1s, 44 tanks and 19 ARVs remained.
5/ Based on the increasing use of T-54/55s by Russia and the constant need to replenish BMP losses, we can assume that by now every working piece of equipment must've been removed from the 1295th. Whatever remains by the next time we get satellite footage will be the non-operational armor.
6/ This also says a lot of the state of the base:
https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1750565689453076911
7/ But that's just the 1295th. As you saw over the multiple threads HighMarsed posted while we we're doing our prewar AFV count, Russia has a huge number of smaller storage depots. Here's one such thread, as an example:
https://x.com/HighMarsed/status/1756301007556899297
8/ I wanna show here some (not all, as that would make this thread endless) of these smaller bases, and how it's very likely that many of them have run out of equipment by now, despite the lack of footage to prove my suspicions.
9/ First, the one base that did actually run out of armor: the 4998th at Wyborg. Before the war there were 33 BTR-60s stored there, including these R-145BM command vehicles. By May 2022 all BTRs were gone.
10/ Now the former Ukrainian base at Sebastopol, which I already mentioned in the past. It stored mostly BMP-2s, but also several dozen BTR-60s and 70s and 5 MT-LBs. By June 2022 most BMP-2s and the few BTR-70s there were gone. Only BTR-60s and MT-LBs remained.
https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1769272075741434013
11/ Another interesting base is the one located near Novaya Stanitsa. You can clearly see in these pics how the equipment sharply decreased by June 2023. I'm just gonna post an analysis on this base by another account as it already has the numbers:
https://x.com/OSINTdepot_i/status/1701449793208266967
12/ Now let's look at the 5349/104th base. Comparison between prewar and May 2023. Before the war there were 123 AFVs here, not counting tanks. By May 2023, only 10 BMPs remained.
13/ The base at Saigrajewo didn't see a drop in stored armor, but it was instead cannibalized. All 198 BTR-60s (might be 70s, I'm pretty unsure about my IDs on this base) stored here have been rendered unoperative.
https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1769272950803382521
14/ Another example of depleting bases: the 4989th base at Moschkowo. From 311 MT-LBs before the war to barely a few dozens by September 2022.
https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1766488340277162476
15/ Another examply from my MT-LB thread: an undesignated base, this time in Pervomayskiy. Before the war and August 2022. By then only 3 BRDM-2s remained.
https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1766488346425987559
16/ Then the 7022th base at Kandalakscha. @hizzo_jay counted it months ago. Only 3 BTRs remained there by May 2022, one of which seemed to be a radar station.
https://x.com/hizzo_jay/status/1709266050817118642
17/ This is most likely related to the Finnish border being depleted of Russian troops and equipment to keep the war effort in Ukraine. ft.com/content/f7587d…
18/ Finally, as I don't wanna make this thread infinite, let's look at the 245th base at Lessosawodsk. Although an active unit base, part of it appeard to be a storage base, more concretely the part of the base I'm showing in the pics.
Before the war there were many armored vehicles stored here, and most of them even covered and probably pretty well-preversed. By June 2023 only those BMPs remained, every other piece of armor was gone.
Before the war there were many armored vehicles stored here, and most of them even covered and probably pretty well-preversed. By June 2023 only those BMPs remained, every other piece of armor was gone.
19/ I don't know how Russia stored equipment withdrawal prodecures work. don't know if there's any sense of order there, but I speculated that reserve bases have quotas of equipment to fulfill and send to the frontline. I don't know, tho.
https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1772929249088819247
20/ One thing I do know for sure, and it's that most Russian storage depots are pretty small and spread out all over the huge country. While the dozen or so big bases could carry out the war effort on their own for some months, the smaller ones would be depleted in a few weeks at most, and many of them probably are depleted already, but there's just no satellite images available to confirm it.
21/ It wouldn't be the first time this happens. If you research, you'll find many former storage bases that the Russian military eventually abandoned or sold. Here's one such base, the 7045th at Armawir.
22/ In fact, a lot of Russian storage bases have parts of them abandoned and with collapsed buildings because they either reduced the amount of stored equipment and didn't need so many facilities or they couln't maintain so much military infrastructure. Here are some examle of this, all of them in active bases: the 1311th, the 5349/104th, an undesignated base at Ussurijsk and the 2456th/103rd.
23/ Here's another half depleted base which I just remembered: the 7027th at Pospelicha. This base mostly stored engineering equipment, specially pontoons and fording vehicles, which I never counted. Comparison between prewar and June 2022.
24/ Before ending this thread, I want to note that when I talk about depleting storage bases I'm talking about armored vehicles, artillery and other equipment that several of us have been counting. A base can hold no armor at all, like Wyborg, but still store trucks, as that's the case. I'm just focusing on what's been counted.
25/ And that would be all, hope you find it interesting and I shred some more light on Russian military storage and their current situation. Hopefully the next thread is the updated BTRZ count, although the lack of satellite footage might make it disappointing.
26/ One final thought, since the 2008 Russian military reforms there have always been talks about consolidating stored equipment in a smaller number of bases. I'm sure Russia is unable to do that right now, while the war is raging, but they'll probably go for that option in the near future, as it makes the most sense to make military storage efficient and economically rational.
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