Thread by @Tatarigami_UA

Battle for Chasiv Yar. Analysis, Implications, Projection
🧵Thread:

The battle for Chasiv Yar is a litmus test for both sides. Losing control of it will have dire results for Ukraine. Failure to capture Chasiv Yar on time would raise doubts about Russia's ability to seize Donbas

2/ Chasiv Yar's geography makes it a good defensive position, particularly compared to Bakhmut, blocking Russian progression toward key cities in the Donbas. This is evident on the elevation map, with warmer colors marking higher altitudes and colder colors indicating lower ones

3/ The road linking Chasiv Yar and Bakhmut has multiple bridges over the water channel, which runs through the eastern part of the town, creating a natural defensive barrier. With proper resource allocation, Chasiv Yar can be a formidable obstacle to advancing Russian troops.

4/ If Ukrainian troops retreat from the eastern side, the bridges will probably be destroyed. Though the canal is not deep, it can impede vehicles, shifting the battle to infantry-centric. Orange-marked areas lack water channels but are divided by pipes, as seen in the photo

5/ Traditionally, Russians use airborne forces in key directions. While current airborne units resemble regular infantry, they are more mobile. The use of regiments from the 98th Airborne Division and 11th Air Assault Bde proves the importance of this direction for their command

6/ The probability of eventual Russian advancement into the Kanal district remains high, especially considering the destructive power of KAB bombs, which obliterate defenses and buildings, and the advantage in artillery, complicating the defense of the area.

7/ The assault on April 4th by Russian troops resulted in high casualties and the loss of numerous vehicles among the assaulting troops, as evidenced by a video released by the 67th Brigade. However, despite the initial success, this recent assault has raised some concerns.

8/ Frontelligence Insight analyzed videos and satellite imagery to reconstruct the armored column's route. It traveled the dirt road to Chasiv Yar without encountering minefields, allowing them to enter the Kanal district without facing mines. It can indicate a major issue

9/ Russia deploying four SU-25 aircraft for Close Air Support missions near Chasiv Yar is another sign of a bigger problem. It shows the gravity of Ukrainian air defense problems and shortcomings in SHORAD capabilities. Russians are likely to exploit this vulnerability further

10/ In our assessment, the situation is difficult due to several issues: delays in fortification construction, and lack of personnel from delayed mobilization. There's an obvious shortage of supplies from the West, especially in ammo, artillery, and air defense systems

11/ The terrain alone is not enough to halt advancing Russian forces, heroism and skillfulness of defenders can't be the only pillar of defensive tactics, hence Ukraine needs to have a comprehensive defense approach that accounts for potential weaknesses and previous mistakes.

12/ Meanwhile, the widening advantage of Russian forces over Ukrainian forces is expected to peak this year unless Ukraine and the West take emergency measures. Aid from North Korea, Iran, and China ensures Russia's capacity to sustain tactical advancements for a year or two.

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