The present historical moment reminds me of the post-Intifada period so much. I think it will also end similarly. Contrary to hasbara folklore, the Intifada didn't push Isralis rightward. It made them tired and more dovish, and in 2006 they crowned Ehud Olmert as Israel's PM. /1
Olmert was widely seen as a continuer of Sharon's legacy; he was elected shortly after his unilateral withdrawal form the Gaza Strip. But Olmert was in retrospect a failure. The Second Lebanon War ended inconclusively, and his 2008 bid for two states was dead on arrival. /2
Some Israelis recall the 2009 election when Tzipi Livni "should have" become PM, since her Kadima got one seat more than Likud. In reality, she cannibalized most of her natural allies, and the Jewish center-left had its third worst performance, *ever*. /3
https://twitter.com/HeTows/status/1641525140595916801
2009 marked the beginning of the long period of Pax Netanyahu, which has come to an end around 2020-2021. Ganz and his bloc will almost certainly win the next election. Probably by points rather than in a knockout, but he will win with near-certainy. /4
What I'm even more sure of is that Ganz will fail, much as Olmert. I think he's a decent man, but he has a mediocre intellect and he's deeply committed to the ideas that led to Oct 7. He won't even make progress on the Haredi problem, because he doesn't believe it's a problem. /5
What will come after Ganz? It's hard to say, but my bet is that after the bitter awakening, there will be another decade of right-wing rule. But it will be different from the Netanyahu era. Whether it will be better or worse, I can't say. But it will be different. /6-end
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
