Thread by @WarintheFuture

One of my big takeaways from my latest #Ukraine visit is the need to change strategy. Current war strategy is focussed on 'defending Ukraine'. This is now a strategy for defeat and must evolve. 1/10 🧵🇺🇦
lowyinstitute.org/the-interprete…

2/ It is clear that the strategy of #Ukraine and its partners must evolve to 'defeat Russia in Ukraine'. This is hardly a new insight (I have published on this topic in Foreign Affairs). But the grim situation at present demands an urgent shift in strategy, and a revised Ukrainian theory of victory.

3/ Russia has recovered psychologically from the shock of its early military failures. The Russian president and his government possess a renewed sense of optimism about the trajectory of Russian operations.

4/ In essence, the Russian military in the past two years has undertaken a transformation in its warfighting capability, something that it should have completed, but did not, in the preceding decade of reform. It is much more capable now than in February 2022.

5/ A change in situation demands a shift in strategy. The resources necessary for such a strategy will mean higher defence budgets, increased orders from defence industry, and significantly increased aid to Ukraine.

6/ But given the threats made by Russian officials against Finland, Sweden, the Baltics and other nations, the cost of not resourcing a “defeat Russia in Ukraine” strategy may be far greater in the long run, should Russia defeat Ukraine.

7/ Two foundational elements of a revised strategy are Ukraine's increasingly capable strike complex and its expanding defence industry. Neither are a complete solution to defeating Russia in Ukraine however, and ongoing Western military, financial, diplomatic and info-war support are needed.

8/ Finally, a key element of a revised strategy is strategic influence activities. Russian misinformation, which is having a significant impact on western politics, must be countered. In narrative of inevitable Russian victory (which is wrong) must be countered and not allowed to shape U.S. leadership and resourcing.

9/ At the same time, Ukraine needs a 'new voice' that cuts through the many strategic distractions to explain the purpose for supporting Ukraine and what a Ukrainian 'victory' might look like.

10/ You can read the full article (for free) at the Lowy Interpreter now: lowyinstitute.org/the-interprete…