US European Command (EUCOM) Commander and NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) General Christopher Cavoli reported that EUCOM and NATO are strengthening their ability to respond to the “chronic threat” that Russia poses to global stability and European security in hopes of deterring future Russian aggression against NATO. 🧵(1/6)
2/ Cavoli stated during a briefing to the US House of Representatives Armed Services Committee on April 10 that Russia poses a “chronic threat” to the world and warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin does not intend to limit or stop his aggression at the borders of Ukraine.
3/ Cavoli reported that EUCOM is responding to the Russian threat by enhancing its deterrence posture across Europe, including strengthening EUCOM’s eastern flank with rotational force deployments, expanding EUCOM’s pre-positioned stocks, and modernizing EUCOM’s infrastructure to enable a rapid reception of reinforcing forces.
4/ Cavoli stated that EUCOM and NATO are exercising extensively to demonstrate their ability to defend against and deter future Russian aggression against NATO.
5/ Cavoli noted that China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia are forming “interlocking, strategic partnerships” that are antithetical to US national security interests and aim to challenge the existing global security framework. isw.pub/UkrWar041124
6/ Kremlin officials, particularly Putin, are increasingly contextualizing the war in Ukraine as part of a long-term geopolitical confrontation between Russia and the West in order to justify Russia’s long-term war effort in Ukraine and future Russian aggression against other European countries.
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NEW: Tonight's Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment considers several most dangerous courses of action (MDCOAs) that could occur if Ukrainian forces continue to suffer from critical shortages in essential artillery, air defense, and other munitions and systems. (1/4)
2/ ISW is not currently forecasting that these MDCOAs will occur, and, on the contrary, assesses that they are very unlikely to occur if additional US and Western aid is rapidly forthcoming.
3/ Current Ukrainian shortages of shells and air defense systems, however, have increased the likelihood of these MDCOAs to the level at which they demand careful consideration.
NEW: The composition of the ongoing Iranian attack on Israel is similar to that of strikes that Russia has repeatedly conducted against Ukraine in efforts to determine the optimal package to penetrate Western-style air- and missile defenses. 🧵(1/8)
2/ The Iranian drone and missile attack into Israel shows that Iran is learning from the Russians and the Houthis to develop increasingly dangerous and effective strike packages against Israel and the US.
3/ The combination of Iranian drones and both cruise and ballistic missiles against Israel is meant to confuse and overwhelm Israeli air defenses. Launches of concurrent attacks by Iranian-backed actors in Lebanon and Yemen are part of this effort.
More Key Takeaways from the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:
ISW continues to assess that the development of Ukraine’s defense industrial base can allow Ukraine to sustain its defense against Russia and longer-term national security needs with significantly reduced foreign military assistance.
2/ Russian forces are domestically producing and fielding a new air-to-surface subsonic cruise missile against Ukraine designated the Kh-69 as part of continued efforts to improve strike packages and penetrate Ukraine’s degraded air defense.
3/ The Russian Federal Security Service claimed that it prevented a group of Central Asians from perpetrating a terrorist attack against a Russian military facility in occupied Ukraine with Ukraine’s help, likely as part of efforts to set information conditions to portray any future Ukrainian attack on legitimate Russian military targets in occupied Ukraine as “terrorist” attacks.
NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged that Russia’s ongoing strike campaign against Ukrainian energy facilities aims in part to devastate the Ukrainian defense industry. (🧵1/5)
2/ Putin's statement confirms ISW’s ongoing assessment that Russian strikes against Ukrainian energy facilities aim to degrade Ukrainian defense industrial capacity.
3/ Significant delays in Western aid, due in part to successful Russian information operations and Western hesitancy, have created an opportunity for Russian offensive operations and Russia’s strike campaign.
NEW: Russian forces conducted another large-scale series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of April 10 to 11 that caused notable and likely long-term damage to Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. 🧵(1/6)
2/ Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated that Ukraine needs more Patriot air defense batteries to protect both Ukraine’s population centers and frontline areas.
3/ Russian strikes have forced Ukraine to make difficult decisions between providing air defense coverage to large population centers in the rear and active areas on the frontline, and Russia appears to be exploiting Ukraine’s degraded air defense umbrella...
Russian forces recently advanced west of Avdiivka and likely captured Pervomaiske (southwest of Avdiivka) as of April 9. Additional geolocated footage published on April 9 shows that Russian forces advanced in fields northeast of Netaylove (immediately west of Pervomaiske). (1/5)
2/ Russian forces recently advanced west and southwest of Donetsk City. Geolocated footage published on April 8 shows that Russian forces made gains along Vatutin Street in southeastern Krasnohorivka (west of Donetsk City) following a mechanized assault with roughly two platoons.
3/ Geolocated footage published on April 9 shows Ukrainian forces counterattacking in the same area on Vatutin Street, indicating that Ukrainian forces regained their positions following the initial Russian mechanized assault.