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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 12, 2024 • 17 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X

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The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/

Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/

2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…

3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks. 5/

4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…

5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/

6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…

Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…

7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/

8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…

9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/

There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…

So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/

Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Mar 26

A potential scenario: US Marines land on Kharg Island under fire, take cover behind Iran’s oil terminals.

This forces Tehran into a brutal choice — destroy its own economy or let the US control 90% of its oil exports, — Financial Times. 1/

Kharg is where 90% of Iran’s oil is loaded.

Seizing it wouldn’t be symbolic. It would mean controlling the country’s main source of revenue. 2/

That turns a military move into economic warfare. The US wouldn’t need to destroy infrastructure — just control it, and squeeze Iran’s income without crashing global oil markets. 3/

Read 12 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Mar 26

Zelenskyy: Trump wants a quick end to the war, but “quick” means at someone’s expense — Russia or Ukraine.

I won’t accept peace at Ukraine’s expense. Leaving the east is a major risk — and a bad peace would also be a risk for Trump.

1/

Zelenskyy: Ukraine’s east and its defense lines are core to our security guarantees.

The idea of trading withdrawal from Donbas for US guarantees is shaped by Russia’s narrative — and it’s dangerous.

2/

Zelenskyy: If all sides want to end the war, there must be at least one leaders’ meeting.

The key issues are territory and security guarantees — and the US, as mediator, holds that possibility.

3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Mar 25

In February, Ukraine gained more ground than it lost for first month since 2023, clawing back about 100 square miles in Zaporizhzhia. Now Russia intensifying attacks to retake lost land.

Lt. Col. Gersak: "They are massing and want to push us again" — NYT. 1/

Musk's decision in February to block Russian troops' access to Starlink gave Ukrainian forces brief reprieve from drone assaults and more ease of movement.

This helped Ukraine's counterattack in Zaporizhzhia region. 2/

Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi after visit to front line: "Intensity of offensive operations in Huliaipole area is significantly higher compared with other sectors."

Zelenskyy: Russia also trying to advance in Kharkiv and Sumy regions near Russian border. 3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Mar 25

For Putin, the war in Iran changed everything.

Rising oil prices, easing US sanctions and Western divisions removed pressure on Moscow — halting any momentum toward negotiations on Ukraine, NYT. 1/

At the start of 2026, Russia’s economy was deteriorating.

Oil sold to India at $22 per barrel, about one-third of market rates. High rates, low reserves and falling revenues pointed to bankruptcies and collapse risks. 2/

Putin began reacting.

In February, he focused on the economy, considered reshuffling negotiators and potentially replacing envoy Dmitriev with Sechin — signaling a shift toward serious talks on Ukraine. 3/

Read 12 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Mar 25

“$300-$500 and a trip abroad.”

Moldovan recruit Maxim Roșca was promised easy money and travel — then sent to camps in Bosnia and Serbia to train in drones, incendiary devices and protest tactics, Politico.

Recruits were told instructions would come from Moscow. 1/

In camps, they learned to fly drones, drop explosives, evade police and organize unrest — part of a Russia-backed network targeting operations across Europe. 2/

Moldovan investigator: “Dozens were trained.”

Prosecutors are probing 80 suspects, 20 indicted. Some linked to operations in France and Germany, including vandalism and election interference cases. 3/

Read 12 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Mar 25

Today I said on CNN:

There’s a 50–60% chance of a ceasefire in Ukraine this year — not soon, but before the US midterms.

If this window closes, the war could last another 1–2 years, with major consequences for Ukraine and Europe.

1/

Me: Russia is using global distraction to Iran to escalate — yesterday’s super major attack hit during the day, when people were at work and in traffic.

We can’t view these wars in isolation — Russia and Iran coordinate on intelligence, technology, and military.

2/

Me: Russia is using drones far more intensively than Iran.

To stop it, the key is cutting supply chains — especially sanctioning electronics and enforcing secondary sanctions on those enabling drone production in Iran and Russia.

3/