Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Apr 12, 2024 17 tweets 6 min read Read on X
The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/
Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/ Image
2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…
3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks.  5/ Image
4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…
Image
5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/
6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…
Image
Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…
Image
7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/
8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…
Image
9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/
There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…
Image
So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/
Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

May 7
Blumenthal: Iran has a lot of cards. Americans are paying much higher prices for gasoline, food and everything dependent on petrochemicals and plastics.

You can't count on war being quick and easy or base it on bombing alone. The costs of this war have yet to be fully felt. 1/
Blumenthal: A nuclear armed Iran is unacceptable. The President made a fundamental miscalculation that bombing alone would accomplish his objectives.

Those objectives have been shifting and contradictory. None has been achieved. 2/
Blumenthal: Iran is weakened economically, but it is in control of the strait. Where Trump is now headed seems very much the JCPOA 2.0.

It could have been the result of negotiations, not a war based on a fundamental miscalculation. 3X
Read 5 tweets
May 7
Russian GRU opened its own Hogwarts — where students learn to hack servers, write viruses, produce disinformation videos and run propaganda campaigns.

The Insider reveals how Russia’s military intelligence trains its hackers. 1/ Image
Department 4 is a secret faculty inside Bauman University in Moscow — 30,000 students, reputation of Russia’s MIT. The faculty’s name is deliberately meaningless: “Special Training.” 2/
It produces officers, hackers and saboteurs for the GRU. In 2024, 1,563 reservists and 429 prospective contract officers studied there across 14 military specializations. 3/
Read 10 tweets
May 7
Zelenskyy: Hungary returned $82m in Ukrainian cash and gold seized from Oschadbank.

Ukraine brought the staff home earlier, now the money and valuables also returned in full.

1/ Image
The shipment included:

- $40m cash
- €35m cash
- 9 kg of bank gold

Oschadbank transported the assets from Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank to Ukraine when Hungarian security services stopped the convoy on March 6 in Budapest. 2/
Hungary detained Ukrainian cash collectors for 24+ hours, confiscated the money, and later passed a law allowing seizure of foreign cash shipments.

Orbán claimed, without evidence, the money could fund his political opponents. 3/
Read 8 tweets
May 7
Russia spent 20 years attacking the “rules-based order.” Now Trump is dismantling it faster than Putin ever could.

This may hurt Moscow more than help it: Trump ignores Russia as an equal, weakens the UN[Russia holds veto] and could target allies like Cuba next, Notte for FA. 1/ Image
Putin wanted Russia free from rules while the US stayed constrained by them.

That strategy worked only while Washington still followed the old system. 2/
Russia mocked the UN, NATO, and “Western rules,” but still used the UN Security Council veto to project power and block Western moves.

Trump now weakens the same institutions Russia relied on. 3/
Read 11 tweets
May 6
Putin’s meat grinder update — Russia lost 35,203 troops in April alone with almost no territorial gains to show.

More than 70,000 Russian troops were killed or wounded in just 2 months of spring. No major Ukrainian city captured. Front lines largely unchanged, United24. 1/ Image
Russia’s “spring offensive” stalled almost entirely in Donetsk.

More than 2/3 of Russian attacks are concentrated there, with losses exceeding 400 soldiers per km² while failing to fully occupy the region. 2/
Kremlin has so little to present that Russia reduced the military part of its May 9 parade.

Fewer vehicles, fewer weapons displays — while Putin even discussed a possible ceasefire around Victory Day. 3/
Read 6 tweets
May 6
Ukraine is building a Hague tribunal for Putin, Lukashenko, and Russia’s top leadership — while demanding over $1T in reparations from Russia.

Iryna Mudra, deputy head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office: “Accountability is not a subject of bargaining in peace talks,” EP. 1/ Image
Russia repeatedly demanded immunity.

During talks in 2022 and in its recent 28-point “peace plan,” Moscow pushed for lifting sanctions, ending court cases, and granting amnesty for Russian leadership and war crimes. 2/
Tribunal moves from politics to implementation. Council of Europe ministers will finalize legal creation of the court in Chisinau on May 14-15. It will operate in Hague.

Mudra: “A tribunal for Putin.” 3/
Read 12 tweets

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