Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Apr 12, 2024 17 tweets 6 min read Read on X
The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/
Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/ Image
2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…
3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks.  5/ Image
4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…
Image
5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/
6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…
Image
Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…
Image
7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/
8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…
Image
9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/
There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…
Image
So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/
Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Tymofiy Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Mylovanov

Apr 28
Historian Niall Ferguson: Magyar’s victory over Orbán is good not because the left defeated the right.

What happened is that a non-corrupt populist who is not a lackey of Putin and Xi defeated one who became both corrupt and a lackey of our adversaries. 1/
Ferguson: This is a great day not just for Hungary. It is a great day for Ukraine and for everybody who believes in liberty.

If populists can lose elections, they are not fascists. There is hope here for Europe and for the wider democratic world. 2X
Source:
Read 4 tweets
Apr 28
Petraeus: The real future of war is in Ukraine. The mass of unmanned systems there is incomparably greater than anything else on earth.

Ukraine is using nearly 10,000 unmanned systems a day, and traditional combined-arms warfare no longer works on that front. 1/
Petraeus: This is now the most lethal front line in history. You cannot drive through the 35-kilometer death zone.

Drones spot you, then come suicide drones, bomber drones, and glide bombs. Even resupply and casualty evacuation now go by remote vehicle. 2/
Petraeus: The next phase is autonomous warfare: machines replacing remote pilots, then systems of systems where sensors and algorithms make decisions at machine speed.

I visited three major drone makers. One company alone will build 3 million drones this year. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Apr 28
Petraeus: The [Hormuz] blockade was the right call. Ending this war with Iran militarily wrecked but still controlling Hormuz would leave Tehran strategically stronger.

We cannot let Iran decide who sails the strait or turn it into a private Panama Canal and charge tolls. 1/
Petraeus: The benchmark is not insurance cost. It is whether crews live.

CEOs told me they will not send sailors into that risk, and about eight crew members have already been killed by Iranian attacks on ships in the Gulf. That alone is enough to freeze traffic. 2/
Petraeus: Two red lines dominate the talks: Hormuz must be restored as an untaxed international waterway, and Iran must give up the roughly 1,000 pounds of 60% enriched uranium.

That is one turn away from weapons grade. The pressure has to continue. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Apr 28
Keane on Iran: We have about two weeks to complete the operation, with roughly 25% still to go and we now have twice the combat power in the region that we had when we started.

It is time to go back to full military operations and keep the blockade on. 1/
Keane: Opening the Strait without a nuclear deal is not progress at all. After weeks of negotiations, it is pretty obvious the Iranians will never propose a deal we can accept.

All they want is regime survival and the chance to recover enough to become a threat again. 2/
Keane: We keep assuming pain will force Tehran to bend. That is the mistake. They do not care about gas lines, blackouts, or the suffering of their people.

They believe time is on their side: oil prices stay high, pressure rises in the US, and Washington blinks first. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Apr 28
Bolton: I’m not sure Trump knows where he is, because I’m not sure he knew what his objectives were going in.

If you do not know where you are going, any road will do. He wants this over, but because he does not think strategically, he is at a loss over what to do next. 1/
Bolton: The only long-term answer to Iran threat is regime change. New faces are not a new regime.

The ideology is the same. Trump failed to do what a serious regime-change effort required before hostilities, but he still has time to work with and resource Iran’s opponents. 2/
Bolton: It is impossible for me to believe Trump was not told Iran would try to shut Hormuz. Everybody knew that threat was there.

The danger is not just mines. It is anti-ship missiles, fast boats, and drones. Better late than never, but this should have been hit earlier. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Apr 27
NYT: Europe is preparing for a long war with Russia as the US has effectively withdrawn from peace negotiations. 15 months ago Trump promised to stop the war in one day. Today analyst James Sherr: “We find ourselves largely where we began in the negotiations.” 1/ Image
Zelenskyy has “lost 80% of his illusions” about Trump’s support. Ukrainians believe they are holding their own militarily and that any resolution “will take place on the battlefield, if at all.” 2/
Trump and his team are preoccupied with Iran. Witkoff and Kushner are planning another trip to Moscow — again without stopping in Kyiv. Zelenskyy said this week: “It’s disrespectful to come to Moscow and not Kyiv. It’s just disrespectful.” 3/
Read 12 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(