Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Apr 12, 2024 17 tweets 6 min read Read on X
The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/
Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/ Image
2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…
3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks.  5/ Image
4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…
Image
5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/
6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…
Image
Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…
Image
7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/
8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…
Image
9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/
There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…
Image
So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/
Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Tymofiy Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Mylovanov

Feb 18
Stubb: Is it in U.S. interests that Finland, with its 1,340 km Russia border, has a strong army?

That Sweden and Norway defend the Arctic? That Russia creates no spheres of influence in Europe? Yes. Right now, interests matter more than values.

1/
Stubb: Europe and America’s interests sometimes align, sometimes don’t — values are complicated.

One strand is MAGA, which sees Europe as too liberal, “killing itself with immigration,” and attacks places like London as multicultural melting pots.

2/
Stubb: The other strand is policy — America First. There’s a pecking order: 1) Western Hemisphere, 2) Pacific, 3) Europe, 4) Middle East, 5) Africa. That’s the reality we live in now.

3X
Read 4 tweets
Feb 18
Kasparov: Any real compromise removes the causes of conflict. Ukraine-Russia “peace talks” are cowardly and corrupt, openly corrupt on Trump’s side.

Europe isn’t ready to admit this isn’t just a standoff, but a real war. Even after four years, it’s still living in illusions. 1/
Kasparov: The cause of this war is Putin’s desire to destroy Ukrainian statehood, restore imperial influence in Eastern Europe, and revise the Cold War’s outcome.

A “compromise” just lets him regroup — his war is against the liberal democratic West.

2/
Kasparov: Witkoff is basically a mid-level real estate speculator now trying to “sell property the size of New Jersey.”

Europe makes a brave face but avoids saying the simple words: Ukraine must win. Instead, it keeps searching for a middle ground to avoid decisive action.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Feb 18
Ukraine recaptured 78 sq miles of land in 5 days — its fastest pace since summer 2023.

That equals Russia’s total gains for the entire December, due to Russian battlefield communications collapsed, The Telegraph. 1/ Image
After Starlink access was restricted to verified Ukrainian terminals, up to 90% of Russian units reportedly lost connectivity — crippling drone coordination and command links. 2/
ISW: Ukrainian counterattacks likely leveraged the Starlink block.

Russian milbloggers report C2 disruption. Drones were grounded. Armored vehicles advanced through the grey zone — normally a kill zone. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Feb 18
The war is hurting usual Russians' pockets. Food inflation in Russia is accelerating — now hitting households directly.

Alexander, a Moscow ad specialist, saw his monthly food budget jump 22% in one month — from 35,000 to 43,000 rubles. Even his daily Americano rose 26%, BBC. 1/ Image
Rosstat: supermarket prices jumped 2.3% in less than a month at the start of 2026.

BBC’s 59-item basket in Moscow rose from 7,358 rubles in 2024 to 8,724 in Jan 2026 — +18.6%, in line with official food inflation of 18.1%. 2/ Image
Dairy prices in the basket surged 41% in two years.

Fruit and vegetables +15%, sensitive to ruble swings and import disruptions. Russia depends heavily on imported produce. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Feb 18
When will war in Ukraine end? The question is meaningless.

Viktor Frankl: The first to break were those who believed it would end soon, and those who believed it would never end.

N. Gumenyuk writes in NYT how Ukrainian soldiers treat the question of when the war will end. 1/ Image
Capt. Mykola Serga, a former entertainer who joined the army in 2022, says those who endure focus on the task at hand.

Frankl’s Man’s Search for Meaning (1940s) is now a wartime bestseller in Ukraine and is delivered to trenches to sustain morale. 2/
The war no longer feels like a temporary disruption. Soldiers describe it as the only reality they know. The Ukrainian military is exhausted but battle-hardened. 3/
Read 13 tweets
Feb 18
McFaul: As an American, I feel ashamed of my country. I cannot look Ukrainian soldiers in the eyes.

I hope it is not too late to reverse this course and put government back on the side of democracy against tyranny.

I am a patriotic American. I want to feel proud again. 1/ Image
At the 2026 Munich Security Conference, Marco Rubio did not mention Putin’s 2022 full-scale invasion in his speech.

The largest war in Europe since 1945 went unaddressed at a security forum dedicated to Europe’s security. 2/
Since 2025, Europe has surpassed the United States in military and financial aid to Ukraine.

U.S. government support has dropped close to zero. American companies sell weapons to Europe, but Washington does not share the burden. 3/
Read 12 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(