Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Apr 12, 2024 17 tweets 6 min read Read on X
The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/
Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/ Image
2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…
3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks.  5/ Image
4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…
Image
5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/
6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…
Image
Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…
Image
7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/
8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…
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9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/
There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…
Image
So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/
Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

Jun 19
Petraeus: Ukraine is outnumbered five to one in personnel and twelve to one in the economy.

They are taking the fight to Russia on the front lines, on the Black Sea, in the depth of the battlefield, and inside the Russian Federation itself. Every single day. 1/
Petraeus: Ukraine has sunk over 35% of the Russian Black Sea Fleet — without a navy.

They did it with aerial drones that find the ships and maritime drones that sink them, all designed by Ukrainians themselves. The fleet is now hiding in a port as far from Ukraine as possible. 2/
Petraeus: They have hit at least 40% of Russia's fuel storage and refineries.

They blew up a fuel depot in St. Petersburg the morning Putin opened his economic forum, then hit again the next day. Russia has taken more killed and wounded than the US did in all of World War II. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Jun 19
Snyder: Russia's 2022 war plan was not a military plan, it was a political plan. It assumed Ukraine is artificial, not real, invented by the West. Within days they expected to be in Kyiv.

Not because of military calculation, because they believed no one would fight back. 1/
Snyder: Putin read intelligence through a worldview where Ukraine isn't real. Agents promised support once troops came. In that framework — invade and everyone sides with you.

All that money paid to agents led to nothing. People in Ukraine were politically Ukrainian. 2/
Snyder: It was a huge miscalculation — Ukrainians were going to resist. The ideological convictions from books Putin read, from Soviet attempts to Russify history, shaped how this war was planned.

This invasion wouldn't have happened if Russia understood Ukraine was real. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Jun 19
Macron: Trump arrived thinking Ukraine would lose and wanted a quick deal. At the Anchorage summit, he nearly handed over territory Ukraine still controls on the ground.

Then three things fundamentally changed his calculus and the shift has been decisive for the war. 1/
Macron: Every three months, Western and Russian analysts predict Ukraine will finally collapse.

Every three months, they are proven categorically wrong. Ukraine is resisting with stunning innovation and a military production capacity that no one anticipated. 2/
Macron: First, Trump saw Ukrainians are credible, determined fighters who defy every prediction.

Second, Europeans are finally taking real military responsibility — a coalition of willing armies will march in the July 14 parade. That signal reached Washington clearly. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Jun 18
Applebaum: Putin has presented a fake image of Russia to the world. He talks about leading a traditional society

In reality, divorce is very high, abortion is common, very few Russians go to church and less than 5% have ever read a Bible. It's not a traditional culture at all 1/
Applebaum: Part of the European right and the American right have this imaginary Russia they use as a political symbol — not understanding it has no relationship to reality.

Most people who admire Russia haven't even been to Moscow or St. Petersburg, let alone the rest of the country. 2/
Applebaum: Putin went back into Soviet history books and re-imposed old plans.

The Soviet occupation of Ukraine in the 1930s and Czechoslovakia in the 1940s looks like Ukraine today — filtration camps, arrests of teachers, mayors, political leaders. It's the old playbook brought back. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Jun 18
Applebaum: 90–95% of Ukraine's weapons are now either made in Europe or made in Ukraine. Ukrainians make most of their own drones — around 4 million last year and 7 million this year, maybe more.

They're becoming more and more self-sufficient in what they can produce. 1/
Applebaum: There's now a 20 km wide zone on the front line fully controlled by drones. Ukrainians can see every Russian person, tank, or vehicle that enters it.

Crossing is nearly impossible. That has effectively frozen the front — Russia is no longer able to move forward. 2/
Applebaum: Ukraine will soon be able to export its drone and defense technology. Right after the Iran conflict broke out, Zelenskyy was in the Middle East talking to Gulf state leaders.

Gulf states are sovereign countries — they can talk to whoever they want to talk to. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Jun 18
Applebaum: Putin doesn't want to end the war — he wants to win it. Winning still means the same thing it always meant: occupying Ukraine, changing the government, making Ukraine a satellite of Russia.

Donbas is where he'd start, but he's never given up the bigger idea. 1/
Applebaum: The only deal possible with Putin is to convince him he can't win — through military pressure and sanctions. Trump hasn't been willing to do that.

He's actually stopped aiding Ukraine militarily. He has no leverage over Russia and can't convince them of anything. 2/
Applebaum: Russia can't conquer Donbas, but that doesn't mean they couldn't use military force against a Baltic state — less protected now than Ukraine.

They may want to show the NATO guarantee doesn't work anymore. The risk of Russia using military power remains very real. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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