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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 12, 2024 • 17 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X

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The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/

Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/

2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…

3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks. 5/

4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…

5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/

6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…

Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…

7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/

8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…

9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/

There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…

So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/

Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 23

Kellogg: No more Mr. Nice Guy. Keep tearing apart Iran economically, and if that means going to the home base of Kharg Island, that’s what we’ll do.

You are looking for domestic revolt. That is the only way the regime falls or stops causing us problems. 1/

Kellogg: Break the impasse by breaking off negotiations. We’re done with these guys. Take a harder line.

If it means taking Kharg Island and the other islands in the strait, so be it. We have Marines offshore and the 82nd Airborne ready to move immediately. 2/

Kellogg: As long as the IRGC is in charge under Vahidi, they have a problem.

It controls a 500,000-strong paramilitary force that keeps the civilian population down. The army is twice the size of the IRGC. You want to fragment them and force hard choices. 3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 23

Budanov: Russia’s bigger loss is reputational. War sanctions may end someday, but doubts about Russia as a reliable supplier will last much longer.

Deliveries through the Black Sea and even the Baltic face major disruption.

1/

Budanov: Striking one target now often requires many drones as effectiveness drops under EW and air defenses. It’s a constant race.

The next leap must be AI, new communications, and better control systems — current methods are near their limit.

2X

Source:

Read 4 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 23

Zelenskyy: Orbán is a skilled and experienced political operator.

It’s a pity someone so strong chose Russia’s side. I believed he would lose because he built his campaign on hatred of one nation toward another.

1/

Zelenskyy: Ukraine can stop Shaheds and has built its own wartime systems, but we still lack Patriots or equivalents. If needed, we’ll produce them ourselves or with Europeans.

My top priority is finding more air defense, especially anti-ballistic systems.

2/

Zelenskyy: I feel like a parrot repeating the same answer — elections during war are not possible under the constitution.

They will happen when the war ends, and until then I will support and lead my country.

3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 23

Former Ukraine FM Kuleba: Trump will not change his stance on Ukraine. He rejected Zelenskyy’s offer to help in the Gulf for one reason: he doesn't want to owe anything to Ukraine

He would even see it as a humiliation to admit that he cannot fix Iran without Ukraine’s support 1/

Kuleba: Trump’s line is clear and consistent. He wants to press Ukraine into concessions in the form of a withdrawal from the rest of the Donbas.

The part of Donetsk region Ukraine still controls, and then use that concession as the basis for a ceasefire. 2/

Kuleba: We are facing great-power thinking. Trump sees Russia as a great power and believes smaller nations should subjugate themselves to stronger ones.

In his world, Ukraine resisting Russian demands is like Venezuela resisting American demands. That is how he sees politics. 3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 23

American planners estimated three days to break Serbia's will in 1999. It took 79. Trump's team thought Iran would fold quickly. Six weeks later, the war continues.

Same cultural blind spot, different president — The Economist. 1/

A 2011 CIA paper on "Cultural Topography" used Kosovo as a case study.

Serbia's national day marks a 1389 defeat at Ottoman hands. Had analysts weighted Serbian honor, they would have warned: Serbia wins by standing up when the world expects it to fold. 2/

The same blind spot caused "terrible harms" in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Jeannie Johnson, professor at Utah State: "American commanders see foreign difficulties as problems to be solved or targets to be struck — rather than terrain to be navigated." 3/

Read 8 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 23

Browder: The €90 billion EU loan is existential for Ukraine. If that money had stayed blocked, Russia could have regained the advantage.

Orban’s defeat removed the veto and gave Ukraine what it needs to keep the government running, pay soldiers, and fund drone production. 1/

Browder: Orban’s defeat was not only decisive for Hungary and Ukraine.

It also sent a message to every pro-Russian politician around him: back Moscow and you can lose in a landslide. That warning now hangs over Fico, Babis, and others. 2/

Browder: Ukraine hit about 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity. They should hit 100% of it.

They should absolutely destroy Russia’s ability to generate hard currency for the war, because if Putin loses that money, he has no choice but to negotiate. 3X