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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 12, 2024 • 17 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X

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The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/

Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/

2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…

3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks. 5/

4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…

5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/

6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…

Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…

7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/

8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…

9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/

There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…

So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/

Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jan 10

Kellogg: Zelenskyy's a tough son of a b*tch. He's stubborn. He has his opinion. He's unafraid to say that. He knows how to use media.

I said [to Trump] he was an embattled and courageous leader. We in the United States have not seen a leader like him since Abraham Lincoln. 1/

Kellogg: There are some malevolent actors out there. You have North Korea, China, what's left of Iran, and Russia. In the past, we didn't allow those four to come together. We kept them separated. Now they've come together. The point is to separate them. 2/

Kellogg: I don't think Putin wants Ukraine to succeed. Putin as a former KGB officer, I don't think they ever outlived their roots. He's got a goal in mind. What we want in the West is not necessarily what he wants. 3/

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jan 9

Is the British Army ready to deploy to Ukraine after a ceasefire?

Former UK defence secretary Ben Wallace questions whether the proposed “coalition of the willing” has the troops, funding, and logistics to succeed. — The Telegraph. 1/

The Paris Declaration suggests Britain and France could put boots on the ground in Ukraine after a ceasefire. Wallace points to funding gaps among coalition leaders.

Wallace: “Britain and France aren’t spending any extra money on defence — only Germany is.” 2/

Wallace questions how long the UK could sustain a deployment without weakening other commitments.

Wallace: “We could do it for a short period of time, but it would come at the expense of something else.”

That “something else” is likely the UK’s 500-soldier NATO battlegroup in Estonia. 3/

Read 10 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jan 9

Ukraine is two steps away from a ceasefire, but the price is high. True peace arrives only with EU membership; now, it’s about a "grand truce."

The main hurdles are the status of Ukraine-controlled Donbas and security guarantees — former FM of Ukraine Kuleba, 24 Channel. 1/

Kuleba: We are standing "at the door." Opening it means a unified position between Ukraine, Europe, and the US. Crossing the threshold means forcing Putin to sign. The US needs a quick result for a Trump diplomatic win, so the pressure on Kyiv is immense. 2/

Kuleba: Ukraine-controlled Donetsk region. Russia demands Ukraine withdrawal and entry of Rosgvardia (de facto sovereignty loss). Ukraine is ready to consider withdrawal only as a tactical move (like in Kyiv 2022), without political concession of the land. 3/

Read 12 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jan 9

Trump told NYT: “I feel strongly they [Russia] wouldn’t re-invade [Ukraine], or I wouldn’t agree to it.”

Trump is ready to commit to the US being involved in Ukraine’s future defense, but only because he is confident that Russia would not try to invade the country again. 1/

Trump made the comment while discussing hypothetical US security guarantees for Ukraine after a ceasefire.

He conditioned any US involvement on his belief that Russia would not invade again — avoiding a direct commitment to fight if a ceasefire collapses. 2/

Trump has previously avoided such commitments.

Zelenskyy is seeking security guarantees that would obligate Western countries, especially the US, to help defend Ukraine after a ceasefire. 2/

Read 10 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jan 9

Ukrainian F-16 pilot: We have cases when a pilot destroyed six cruise missiles in one flight.

Our list of targets included not only destroyed kamikaze drones and cruise missiles, but also enemy aircraft. We can do more. 1/

"It was very difficult to learn English for pilots, because after a combat mission a pilot has to rest, because at some point he will be lifted again.

The pilots knew that they had to improve their English in order to later transfer to more technological equipment. 2/"

"We returned home from training, faced with reality. The tactics that we were taught abroad are not quite suitable for the war in our country.

This war is fundamentally different. We had to sit down, think over the tactics of application. We were the first to arrive. 3/"

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jan 8

Veteran of the 24th Brigade, Petro Buryak: We cleared the area, then a drone hit. I lost my memory. In a coma I fought for my life.

I don’t remember my five clinical deaths, only fragments. I flatlined near Mykolaiv and was revived there and twice more in Odesa — Suspilne Lviv1/

Petro Buryak: My wife brought me out of the coma. Inside it I felt lightness and struggle, searching for a way back.

I remember rising above my body on the table—pain everywhere, no one hearing me. Then I floated free, lighter than a feather, no pain at all.

2/

Petro Buryak: I don’t remember my five clinical deaths as events—only fragments. I don’t know which was first or fifth.

In Mykolaiv and on the road to Odesa the convoy stopped because I flatlined. They revived me there, and twice more in Odesa.

3X