Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Apr 12, 2024 17 tweets 6 min read Read on X
The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/
Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/ Image
2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…
3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks.  5/ Image
4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…
Image
5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/
6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…
Image
Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…
Image
7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/
8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…
Image
9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/
There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…
Image
So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/
Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

May 10
Ukraine is the biggest winner of the Iran war.

Ukraine struck 40% of Russian oil exports while Gulf states — burned by China and Russia backing Iran — are now signing defense deals with Kyiv instead, writes Con Coughlin in The Telegraph. 1/ Image
Zelenskyy estimates total gains at 117.6 square miles — about 10% of the territory Kyiv lost to Moscow in 2025. Russia recorded almost no territorial gains for the first time in two and a half years. 2/
Russia’s spring-summer offensive has little prospect of seizing Ukraine’s “fortress belt” in Donbas. Russian casualties are averaging around 35,000 per month. 3/
Read 11 tweets
May 10
“The only thing worse than no tanks in Red Square are burning tanks in Red Square.”

A European diplomat in Moscow captures how fast Putin’s authority is collapsing inside Russia, writes Mark Galeotti in The Times. 1/ Image
For the first time in decades Putin cancelled armored vehicles from Saturday’s Victory Day parade. Moscow is ringed with Pantsir-S missile launchers on rooftops, electronic warfare stations and drone jammers. 2/
The mere risk of an attack changed Putin’s plans. There is no evidence Kyiv planned a strike on the parade — but that did not matter. 3/
Read 11 tweets
May 10
A demilitarized zone in Donbas remains an unrealistic option — Le Monde.

Zelenskyy: “The Russians want us to leave Donetsk Oblast. The Americans are looking for a solution that is not a real withdrawal — they want to create a demilitarized zone or a special economic zone. 1/ Image
Russia claims full annexation of both Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts — including territory its army does not fully control. It occupies nearly all of Luhansk and 80% of Donetsk. 2/
Ukraine refuses to cede any land currently under its control and insists the current front line must divide the two sides in any ceasefire. 3/
Read 11 tweets
May 10
Patriot batteries guard the runway at Rzeszów airport — this small regional airfield 55 miles from Ukraine became the main hub for military aid to Kyiv.

Up to 40 cargo flights per day. Wounded soldiers treated here before flying to European hospitals — El País. 1/ Image
On February 24, 2022 Ukraine closed its airspace. Rzeszów went from 10-12 commercial flights per day to 20-40 large cargo planes daily — Hercules, Boeing 747s, Antonov An-124s from around the world. 2/
The airport had 300 staff. It now has 550. Fuel consumption jumped from 100,000 liters per week to 500,000-600,000 liters per day. Lines of trucks stretched endlessly. 3/
Read 11 tweets
May 10
Fiona Hill: Scrapping the long-range missile program undercuts deterrence against Russia in the short and medium term.

It also pushes more countries to develop these capabilities themselves, creating the risk of a wider arms race. 1/
Hill: Putin’s position is slipping, but we should be careful about calling it a tipping point.

He has always proven resilient in the Russian context, and his extra security precautions are not irrational given the war and attacks on leaders. 2/
Hill: Ukraine has become a system-changing war. It has changed the nature of warfare itself.

Ukrainians are now the most battle-hardened army in Europe, with capacity, lessons, and equipment that others want to learn from. 3/
Read 6 tweets
May 10
Fiona Hill: We are in a realm of magical and wishful thinking.

Iran is another personalized standoff between Trump and whoever his counterparts are, with each side trying to show who has the edge. Everyone else is watching this spectacle with real alarm. 1/
Hill: It will be very hard for any other state to corral Trump into a negotiation track.

This is all about how Trump thinks he is being viewed on the world stage: whether he looks strong, in control, and able to impose his will. 2/
Hill: Trump does not think about consulting allies because he does not think of them as allies. They are supplicants.

He sees them as subcontractors in his project, not partners in a larger enterprise. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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