5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/
6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…
Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/
7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/
8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/
9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/
Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.
Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/
There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/
So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.
Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine
16/
Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X
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Russian Deputy Defense Minister Ivanov has been accused of corruption and arrested in Moscow
But the truth might be different: treason
Indeed, since when corruption has become a crime? If you are a high-ranked official, you are more likely to get arrested if you are honest 1/
Russian and Ukrainian media report different stories. Ukraine says Ivanov is an innocent victim of a Ukrainian cyber operation. Russian media say he is a traitor. Russian govt says corruption is the only reason. 2/
Russian media: “The bribe is for the public. So far, they do not want to talk publicly about state treason - the scandal is big: after all, the deputy defense minister,” says one of the sources. 3/
How ca. the EU civilians develop the Ukrainian type resilience to be ready for a Russian attack?
Dutch Ministry of Defense’s asked me to speak to this today at their conference in Hague
These are my points informed by my wartime civilian experience: 1/
I asked the audience to get in my shoes and thin about what I was most afraid of on the first day of the war? 2/
That I will run out of gas with my family in the car. Not the Russian jets over me, when we were stuck in a traffic jam. Not seeing tanks on highway. But that I will run out of gas with my wife, with my sister, with my nephew, in a traffic jam. 3/
An incredibly uplifting story in NYT about Speaker Johnson switching to support Ukraine. There are three lessons and all are good news:
1. Facts matter 2. A politician can choose the right things against self-interest 3. A systemic comprehensive persuasion campaign works 1/
NYTimes: Mr. Johnson’s decision to risk his speakership to push the $95 billion foreign aid bill was the culmination of a remarkable personal and political arc. 2/
NYTimes: As a rank-and-file hard-liner, Mr. Johnson had largely opposed efforts to fund Kyiv’s war effort.
But by the time ... Mr. Johnson was speaking a starkly different language. 3/
Visegrad24: Ukraine launched a major drone swarm against Russia, striking 2 power stations and an oil refinery
These strikes defy the US requests to limit strikes to Ukrainian territory, and hint at U.S.-Ukraine conflict about the war doctrine 1/
The U.S. doctrine on Russia war in Ukraine appears to be “escalation management”.
It is inadequate in the environment where both Ukraine and Russia use tit-for-tat strategy on deep strikes, while the U.S. lack the political capability to follow through on its commitments 2/
The title-for-tat structure of deep strike exchanges between Russia and Ukraine is not commonly known by the public. Both sides report their successes and attacks of the opponents as isolated events. But they are not. 3/
Did Ukraine shoot down a Russian Tu-22М3 "Backfire" Strategic Bomber?
Ukraine says yes, Russia says no.
If Ukraine is right, it is a big deal and could have strategic implications for the war.
Details: 1/
There is skepticism about Ukraine’s claim.
“The Russian Strategic Bomber crashed over the Stavropol Krai Region of Southwestern Russia, which is roughly 400 Miles from the Ukrainian Frontline, making this claim Incredibly Unlikely.” 2/
The Military Intelligence Directorat posted a video that aims to prove it was their doing. It is hard to infer much from the video, but they say the bomber was shot from 300km, flew to Stavropol, which is quite a way, then crashed 3/