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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 12, 2024 • 17 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X

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The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/

Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/

2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…

3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks. 5/

4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…

5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/

6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…

Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…

7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/

8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…

9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/

There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…

So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/

Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jul 16

Azov and Khartiia commanders backed Ihor Klymenko for defense minister.

Khartiia's Obolenskyi: He can turn resources into battlefield results, reform the army and grow arms production.

Azov's Prokopenko: He knows the front, worked on the corps system and can fix mobilization.1/

Obolenskyi: A wartime defense minister must turn resources into battlefield results, reform the army, and grow defense industry.

It is like changing a race car’s wheels while driving. Ihor Klymenko is worthy of this new challenge.

2/

Prokopenko: In a short time as defense minister, Fedorov strengthened Ukraine’s defense and weakened Russia’s military power.

Klymenko knows front-line needs, worked on the corps system, defended National Guard soldiers, and has the experience to fix mobilization.

3X

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jul 15

Lindsey Graham embodied a political bargain.

He mocked Trump, then became one of his closest allies.

That turn bought Ukraine time and leverage. Trump backed deep strikes into Russia, let Kyiv build Patriot interceptors, and moved toward sanctions bill — Bret Stephens, NYT. 1/

Their relationship began with humiliation. In 2015, Trump gave out Graham’s phone number at a rally.

Graham answered by destroying the phone on video: blender, golf club, toaster oven, lighter fluid. 2/

Then came the turn. Graham went from brutal critic to loyal Senate friend. He said a round of golf showed him Trump was “funny as hell.” Stephens calls it a devil’s bargain — honesty traded for influence. 3/

Read 10 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jul 15

Russian POW Maksim (born 2007): I joined the army and stayed. An order is an order. I only saw myself in the army. It is prestigious. It is beautiful. It is a source of pride to be a soldier.

Q: Your motivation was not material?

Maksim: No. 1/

Maksim: I was not interested in the war in Ukraine. I wanted to be a soldier for my country, for my state. But when the order came, I had taken an oath, like any citizen of my country. An order is an order. 2/

Maksim: People think, “It’s just a little war. It will end soon. I’ll sign a contract, make some money, and that’s it.” But in reality, you either come home in a body bag or end up in captivity. That’s all. 3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jul 15

Fire Point co-founder Shtilierman: When Russia enters a territory, it kills at least 20% of the population.

It happened in the Holodomor, the Baltics, western Ukraine, and Chechnya. If they come here, they will cut down 20% as “prevention.”

1/

Shtilierman: The company’s goal is to help humanity avoid the Fermi paradox and not destroy itself as a civilization.

Russia stands in the way. It fuels war and confrontation to keep Europe from living in peace.

2/

Shtilierman: The U.S. already treats Russia like losers. Russia keeps showing weakness: burning forums, Moscow’s “roof,” failed signals.

And if Russians had not killed civilians in Bucha, the world might never have started supporting Ukraine.

3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jul 14

Khodorkovsky [former Russian oligarch brought down by Putin]: Putin may decide NATO will not answer strike for strike.

In that case, he could hit logistics chains and transport hubs in Europe that feed supplies into Ukraine. As I remember, there are two major entry points.

1/

Khodorkovsky: I doubt the stories about camouflage nets and taking Kostiantynivka are for Trump. Trump does not care where Kostiantynivka is.

They are for Russians. Putin thinks Russians care about it. They don’t. They care that the war ends on Russia’s terms.

2/

Khodorkovsky: Trump may warn Putin that any strike beyond Ukraine will end badly. Poland would be hit first, and its diaspora matters in the U.S.

I think Trump will cover Poland. Putin won’t stop before spring, but by spring he may have to.

3X

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jul 14

Khodorkovsky [former Russian oligarch brought down by Putin]: Putin now has to manage what he never learned: a real economic breakdown.

He knows recruiting and special operations. Now the system’s “pants” are tearing, and he does not know how to stitch them back. 1/

Khodorkovsky: Now a critical amount of refinery capacity is under threat.

If Ukraine keeps striking and Russian air defense keeps missing about 20% of incoming drones and missiles, plants across European Russia, the Urals, and western Siberia will stay at risk. The only fix is a sharp cut in private fuel use.

2/

Khodorkovsky: Russia may not raise fuel prices on paper.

In practice, people will pay more to skip lines and get gasoline delivered, as in St. Petersburg. In a poorly regulated economy, this is how shortages spread. We saw the same thing at the end of the Soviet Union.

3X