Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Apr 12, 2024 17 tweets 6 min read Read on X
The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/
Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/ Image
2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…
3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks.  5/ Image
4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…
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5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/
6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…
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Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…
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7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/
8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…
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9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/
There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…
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So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/
Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

May 1
AI will soon decide who dies on the battlefield. In 2002 the US MQ-1 Predator drone carried out one of the first targeted strikes in Afghanistan. In 2026 Ukrainian ground robots capture Russian soldiers without a single human soldier present — Al Jazeera. 1/ Image
In January Ukrainian defense company DevDroid released footage of three Russian soldiers surrendering to a ground robot armed with a machinegun. In April Zelenskyy confirmed: for the first time in the war, a position was captured exclusively by unmanned platforms. 2/
Ground robotic systems conducted over 22,000 missions on the front in three months. Some brigades report that up to 70% of front-line supplies are now delivered by robots. These machines transport ammunition, food and medical supplies and evacuate wounded troops. 3/
Read 11 tweets
May 1
Budanov: “You have one chance to stay alive — come out into the open and surrender. If you don’t decide in five minutes, I will order an assault.”

That’s how he spoke to Russian border guards during a raid inside Russia in summer 2023. 5 minutes later, they surrendered, Babel.1/ Image
Artan unit commander Viktor Torkotiuk: the operation was planned two months in advance.

They gathered human intel, ran drone reconnaissance, sent teams deep inside to map routes. Budanov personally adjusted the final plan. Goal: disrupt Russia’s planned offensive on Kharkiv. 2/
Ukrainian units advanced tens of kilometers into Belgorod region, secured Nova Tavolzhanka, and began destroying Russian troops and equipment.

Russia threw wave after wave of assaults — and failed to push them out. 3/
Read 8 tweets
May 1
Russians tortured Ihor Maksymenko for two weeks — stabbed his leg with a bayonet, cut his ear, ruptured his spleen and after surgery forced him to "confess" he had fallen himself. They punished him for passing SBU coordinates of enemy equipment — Hromadske. 1/ Image
He stayed in the village of Novomykolaivka, when his family fled and refused to take a Russian passport. In 2022 Chechens drove himinto a field, stripped them and prepared to shoot them. The Chechen ordered to fire shot into the ground instead. They left naked in the field. 2/
Five times they threw him into a basement, beat him and released him. Then his mother Olena, returning from Poland, stopped at a checkpoint and the SBU asked for her help. Ihor began passing information about equipment locations and strike coordinates. 3/
Read 10 tweets
May 1
“Without AI, democracies cannot effectively protect peace. This is not only about Ukraine — it is about global security.” Danylo Tsvok, 35, head of the Defense Artificial Intelligence Center of Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense to AP. 1/ Image
The Center was established one month ago. Its mission: make AI the foundation of Ukraine’s battlefield.

Tsvok: “AI is not only a competitive advantage. It is about our survival. We need to be faster than the enemy in decision-making.” 2/
Land drones have already conducted over 20,000 battlefield missions in three months this year — logistics, medical evacuation, direct combat. One attack was carried out entirely without human soldiers. 3/
Read 8 tweets
May 1
Russia is seeing growing internal unrest, and Putin is responding with repression, arrests and the rehabilitation of Soviet symbols of terror — CNN.

In early March the FSB cut off mobile internet access in Moscow and other large cities. 1/ Image
Putin: "The outages are related to operational work to prevent terrorist attacks. Widespread public information in advance can be detrimental to operational work, because criminals hear and see everything too." 2/
On April 22 the Investigative Committee raided the offices of publisher Eksmo and detained staff. Reason: "LGBTQ propaganda."

The book that drew scrutiny: a 2021 bestseller called "Summer in a Pioneer Tie" about a queer romance between two young men at a Soviet summer camp. 3/
Read 10 tweets
May 1
War is the best spur to military innovation.

Ukraine produces 7 million drones this year, builds new ground robots in 6 months, and is now killing Russian soldiers faster than Russia can replace them, writes The Economist. 1/ Image
Ratel Robotics made street lighting before 2022. Today it produces unmanned ground vehicles that deliver supplies, lay mines, evacuate wounded and shoot down enemy drones with nets.

A new model sketched on paper today reaches the front in six months. 2/
Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine captured a Russian position using only UGVs and drones — no human troops.

In Q1 2026 Ukrainian drones and robots conducted more than 22,000 missions. Russia suffered roughly 35,000 casualties in March. 96% were caused by drone strikes. 3/
Read 12 tweets

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