Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Apr 12, 2024 17 tweets 6 min read Read on X
The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/
Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/ Image
2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…
3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks.  5/ Image
4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…
Image
5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/
6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…
Image
Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…
Image
7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/
8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…
Image
9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/
There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…
Image
So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/
Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Tymofiy Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Mylovanov

Apr 13
Keane: You do not need 10,000 troops to seize Iran’s uranium. The US controls the airspace.

The real threat is rockets and missiles. Another option is to threaten Kharg Island: give up enrichment, or lose more than 90% of your export lifeline. 1/
Keane: Trump’s blockade already shuts down Iran’s oil exports. Zero export oil leaves Iran under this order.

Kharg Island handles more than 90% of that flow, so cutting that artery hits Tehran hard and fast and strips away Tehran’s leverage. 2/
Keane: Iran misread the ceasefire. Tehran thought the shutdown gave it leverage and would push US negotiators into concessions.

Instead, talks collapsed, Trump wanted everything, and Washington’s answer was simple: absolutely not. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Apr 13
Russian soldiers go to war for money, then pay it back to survive.

“I gave $650 to be moved to guard duty in Crimea. Others paid more. One guy said he pays more than he’ll ever earn. Someone turned this war into a business.” — Meduza. 1/ Image
Commanders run it like a system.

Skip a mission: $2,600. Stay in the rear: up to $6,500. Soldiers pay again and again — every rotation, every order. 2/
They pay for everything.

Armor, radios, fuel, food. Units collect $400 monthly per soldier. Some give away $25k+ over time. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Apr 13
When soldiers are taught how to survive an FPV drone, they’re taught “how to try to survive.”

Rule number one: don’t stay together. One strike can wipe out a group. If you scatter, the drone has to pick one target. After that — it’s all down to chance, The Telegraph. 1/
If there’s no cover, drop low and make yourself harder to see. If there is cover — run. Stay in shadows, hug walls, use vegetation to reduce visibility and heat signature. 2/
Drone Fight Club founder Vladyslav Plaksin: You have to think ahead. What you’re doing now is already in the past. You need to know where the drone will be in 2–3 seconds. That’s why musicians make great operators. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Apr 13
Anne Applebaum: If Orbán lost, Putin and Trump can be next.

Illiberal regimes can fall even after 16 years in power — Hungary just proved it, writes she in The Atlantic. 1/ Image
Péter Magyar and his party Tisza won a constitutional majority of Parliament seats.

To get there he had to defeat a regime that controlled the judiciary, bureaucracy, universities and a chunk of the economy through oligarchic companies. 2/
In the final weeks Orbán received support from Trump, Vance, Netanyahu, Marine Le Pen, Alice Weidel and other illiberal leaders from Argentina, Poland, Slovakia and Brazil. 3/
Read 12 tweets
Apr 13
Here is what Peter Magyar plans to do first as Hungary's new leader:

1. pass a new constitution
2. unlock $20 billion in frozen EU funds
3. introduce a wealth tax, repair ties with Ukraine and the EU
4. fix a near-junk credit rating, writes Bloomberg. 1/ Image
Politics: demand resignations of the president, top justices and chief prosecutor. Pass a new constitution. Change election rules that favored Fidesz. Limit prime ministers to two terms — effectively barring Orbán from running again. 2/
Foreign policy: unlock more than $20 billion in EU funds frozen over graft and rule of law concerns. Pass anti-corruption legislation. Restore judicial independence and media freedom. First trip: Warsaw. Then Vienna and Brussels. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Apr 13
McFaul: Before this war, Hormuz was open. Now Trump is talking about a joint venture with the Islamic Republic to charge ships for passage.

Charging for a natural strait is a terrible precedent, and doing business with this regime could hand it billions. 1/
McFaul: The costs go far beyond Iran.

This war generated billions for Putin through higher oil prices, pushed NATO into a major crisis because Trump is lashing out at allies, and made America look less like a defender of order and more like another rogue power. 2/
McFaul: If we want to compete with China, we need allies, values, and a reputation for playing by the rules.

Instead, this war makes China look prudent and cautious while America looks reckless, punitive, and willing to wreck the order it claims to defend. 3/
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(