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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 12, 2024 • 17 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X

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The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/

Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/

2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…

3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks. 5/

4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…

5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/

6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…

Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…

7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/

8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…

9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/

There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…

So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/

Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 2

Sarah Paine: Putin is fixated on Ukraine, Xi on Taiwan — opposite ends of Eurasia. Their main theaters don’t align.

The West should avoid hot war, avoid trade wars, grow stronger. While Putin burns through Russia’s assets in Ukraine. That’s how the last Cold War was won.

1/

Sarah Paine: Putin is trying to build an empire in the age of nationalism. It’s a non-starter.

He’s burning Russia’s military in Ukraine while China expands into Central Asia.

Moscow chose a hot war while weak, and Beijing is strong. That’s what makes this so damaging.

2/

Sarah Paine: Siberia has exactly what China needs — resources and, above all, water.

Lake Baikal holds over 20% of the world’s surface freshwater.

China is famous for massive water projects, and Siberia is the nearest ‘quick fix.’

3X

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 2

In a Kyiv suburb a Shahed strike erased a family in minutes.

Svitlana Blatova and her partner Maksym were killed instantly. Their 4-year-old daughter survived.

“A child screaming, ‘Mama, mama, mama.’ And her mother wasn’t answering. The upper floor was burning,” — Hromadske. 1/

Hours before the hit, Svitlana posted plans for the next day — errands, work, preparations for her eldest son’s 20th birthday. She went to sleep smiling. 2/

At 1:30 am, a Russian Shahed hit her apartment in Bilohorodka.

The duplex they had nearly finished paying off burned out completely. Svitlana and her partner Maksym were killed instantly. Their 4-year-old daughter survived. 3/

Read 10 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 2

Colombian volunteer in Ukraine, DW: As of now, the president of Colombia sees us as mercenaries. He said we're mercenaries.

Because we're fighting for the freedom of a country? I personally fight for freedom. 1/

“The moment you get to this position, you see it's hell. Three orcs came up to my position, and I killed them. One FPV hit me, broke my finger. I bandaged myself up and kept fighting. That night I repelled a lot of assaults.” 2/

“One of my colleagues told me, we have to cross one kilometer of open field. Many people died there. He went and he was killed. I started to walk, they attacked me again. I was wounded. The 21 days in the position were very difficult. I almost died.” 3/

Read 7 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 2

Putin cannot win on the battlefield, so he сonducts genocide against civilians — cutting heat, electricity, gas, and water to millions of Ukrainians during winter, writes Peter Dickinson in the Atlantic Council. 1/

Since late 2025, Russia has launched its most comprehensive campaign of strikes on civilian infrastructure since the full-scale invasion.

Power plants, heating hubs, gas and water systems are hit repeatedly to block repairs and keep cities freezing. 2/

Most Ukrainian cities rely on Soviet-era centralized heating plants that cannot be shielded from missiles.

The Kremlin exploits this vulnerability, bombing the same facilities again and again to collapse repair efforts during the coldest weeks of winter. 3/

Read 9 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 2

Hodges: What makes NATO successful? Cohesion.

The Soviet Union and Russia avoided a conventional attack because they knew we would all show up.

That certainty — that everyone would be there — was the secret sauce, more decisive than money spent on equipment. 1/

Hodges: The seizure of a Russian tanker showed how the alliance works.

US helicopters staged through UK bases, refueled with British naval support, operated with US ships based in Spain by allied permission. Half of the intelligence came from allies, not only the UK. 2/

Hodges: It is sickening to hear how the US president and DefSec daily smash our allies, denigrate their sacrifice, and say “we didn’t really need them.”

Thousands of allied soldiers were killed or wounded in Afghanistan after Article 5 was invoked. I served among them. 3X

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 2

Matviichuk, Nobel Peace Prize winner: It's very difficult on daily basis to work with human pain. Russian war turns people into the numbers.

We have more than 100,000 episodes. But people are not numbers. With our documentation work, we are returning people their names. 1/

Matviichuk: War test us and provide people an opportunity to express the best in them, to be courageous, to fight for freedom and to help each other. In Ukraine, people risk their lives for others who they never met before. We have no luxury to become cynical. Cynicism is illness. 2/

Matviichuk: It's possible to sign something which Russia will violate immediately. What and how to make Putin to stop this war, not to make a pause, to retreat, to regroup and to start large scale war again? I don't see any discussion about security guarantees. 3/