Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Apr 12, 2024 17 tweets 6 min read Read on X
The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/
Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/ Image
2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…
3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks.  5/ Image
4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…
Image
5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/
6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…
Image
Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…
Image
7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/
8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…
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9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/
There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…
Image
So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/
Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

Feb 17
French baker Loïc Nervi bakes bread in Troyeshchyna, Kherson, and Kramatorsk. Locals call him Vitalik.

Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, he has been baking bread for elderly people in frontline and hard-hit areas, writes Hromadske. 1/ Image
He is 43. In France’s Var region, he owns four bakeries and leads a team of 25 people. At home, his wife and two daughters, aged 7 and 9, wait for him. 2/
In March 2022, he went to the Polish-Ukrainian border. Then to Kherson, Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, Fastiv, and Kramatorsk. This is now his tenth mission to Ukraine. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Feb 17
Former Ukraine PM Arseniy Yatsenyuk: The position of the American administration is to avoid involving the EU in negotiations with Russia on Ukraine.

Zelenskyy performed here to the maximum — everything that could be said and everyone that could be met, he did it. 1/
Yatsenyuk: We have to prepare for the next winter. Russia caused $65B in damage to Ukraine's energy sector.

Without long-range missiles, without Tomahawks, without Ukraine having the ability to retaliate, we will not be able to ensure energy security for the next year. 2/
Yatsenyuk: Starmer's statement is very clear. Even if a peace agreement is signed — Great Britain, the EU, and everyone else must continue funding Ukraine's defense.

He is saying that even if a peace agreement is signed, Russia will continue preparing for the next offensive. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Feb 17
Ben Shapiro: Russia has never quite entered Europe; it’s existed on the fringes. As Dugin says, “Atlanticist” ideas aren’t Russian ideas.

Integrating Russia into Europe has been a failed experiment. Europe and the U.S. must uphold shared values to sustain their alliance. 1/
Ben Shapiro: The Germans and the French fought for centuries. The French and the English fought for centuries.

The Roman Empire was its own civilization; outlying areas were “barbarians.” After Rome fell rose Christendom, ended by the Reformation and the Peace of Westphalia.

2/
Ben Shapiro: Civilizations define themselves internally and against others. Rome was not only what was under its sway, but in opposition to German, Assyrian, Persian armies.

Christendom was forged in opposition to Islam, which spread deep into Europe, even into France.

3/
Read 4 tweets
Feb 17
Zelenskyy: Ukrainians will never forgive me or the US if we cede Donbas to Putin.

Ukrainian people will reject peace deal that involves Ukraine unilaterally withdrawing from eastern Donbas and turning it over to russia — Axios. 1/ Image
Main sticking point in Geneva talks is control of Donbas. Around 10% still in Ukrainian hands.

US mediators proposed Ukrainian forces withdraw from parts they hold and allow area to become demilitarized "free economic zone." Washington has not taken position on sovereignty. 2/
Russian delegation has new leader: Putin adviser Vladimir Medinsky. Zelenskyy worries russian delegation will try to turn talks into meet and greet to buy more time.

Zelenskyy: "Medinsky likes to philosophize about historical roots. We don't have time for all this shit." 3/
Read 9 tweets
Feb 17
FT: Zelenskyy at Munich said he'd hold elections but only after two months of ceasefire and with security guarantees in place.

He's pushing back hard on US pressure to hold votes by May 15. 1/ Image
Washington wants elections and a peace deal by mid-May, with security guarantees contingent on the broader settlement. Kyiv insists security guarantees must come before any peace deal is signed. 2/
White House is pressing — “hold presidential elections and a referendum on any peace deal by May 15 or risk losing US security guarantees entirely.” That's the ultimatum hanging over Zelenskyy in Munich. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Feb 17
Xi Jinping purged 5 of 6 generals in China's top military body over past three years. He reaches back to Maoist tactics of "rectification."

Only two members left in Central Military Commission: Xi and Vice Chairman who oversees purges — The NYT. 1/ Image
In January, Xi called on China to remember Yan'an, where Mao transformed guerrilla fighters into disciplined force through campaign of political terror that eliminated rivals and cemented his absolute authority. 2/
Last year 983,000 officials punished for violating party rules — highest number on record.

John Garnaut, Garnaut Global founder: "Xi believes he needs to build foundation of absolute ideological unity and personal loyalty for future battles." 3/
Read 7 tweets

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