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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 12, 2024 • 17 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X

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The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/

Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/

2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…

3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks. 5/

4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…

5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/

6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…

Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…

7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/

8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…

9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/

There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…

So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/

Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jul 6

"I slowly looked to the side and saw my legs. One leg was bent like the letter G. Hysteria started.

You can't move, no help coming, and you can do nothing." — Volodymyr Prostokishin, 23, lost both legs in Bakhmut.

Ukrainska Pravda writes his story.

1/

He was evacuating a 100-kilogram wounded soldier across an open minefield. A 120mm mortar hit. Two legs gone. Right arm shattered. Shrapnel entered his body and exited in spirals.

His comrade Grusha, who he was saving, died. It was two days before Volodymyr's 24th birthday.

2/

When he regained consciousness, his first thought was about his rifle. Then he tried to stand.

"I woke up and thought — I'll get up, go to work. What a dream — both legs gone." He says this with a smile now.

3/

Read 7 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jul 6

"Russians call it games. They put a bag over your head, pour water on your face until you almost drown.

They stick needles under your fingernails and apply electric shocks to your ears, your testicles, your fingers." — Yevhenii Malik, Mariupol defender — Kronen Zeitung.

1/

Malik on daily beatings: "In the morning they beat the whole barracks — just to say hello." Ten men in a 20-square-meter cell, standing from 6 AM to 10 PM.

No walking, sitting, talking, looking out the window, or smiling. Toilet and water only on command.

2/

The torture had a goal: to extract confessions of war crimes.

"They bombed Mariupol for a month with jets and artillery, killing enormous numbers of civilians. But they wanted to portray us as war criminals." Malik signed under torture. "You have no other option," he says.

3/

Read 7 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jul 6

Russia shifted air defense systems to Moscow from elsewhere in the country. Ukraine still penetrated them — The Atlantic, Phillips Payson O’Brien.

By revealing the limits of Putin's power, Ukraine has to be making his allies and flatterers very nervous.

1/

Ukraine struck the Dubna Space Communications Center twice in one week. Russia uses it to collect intelligence and coordinate army units in occupied Ukraine.

Zelenskyy: "Relevant actions are also being prepared against other similar enemy facilities."

2/

The Moscow refinery hit on June 18 produces 40% of the Moscow region's fuel. It is reportedly out of action for the remainder of 2026. The strike created a massive black smoke plume visible across the city.

The message: Ukraine hits the most important economic targets.

3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jul 6

After 2022, NATO drilled scenarios that still assumed technological superiority and uninterrupted supply chains. In Ukraine, soldiers improvised with software updated overnight.

NATO is not prepared for the battlefield of the future. — Myroslava Gongadze, Ukrainska Pravda.

1/

For decades, NATO exported military knowledge to its partners. Today, Ukraine exports combat experience in drone warfare, electronic warfare, and battlefield adaptation back to NATO.

Integrating Ukraine is a strategic necessity.

2/

Ukraine's factories that once produced furniture and consumer electronics now manufacture drones and military equipment. Ukraine is no longer only a recipient of military aid.

It is a source of combat innovation that can strengthen the US, NATO and the democratic community.

3/

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jul 6

Foreman: Putin is becoming the Robert Mugabe of Russia. Each year he grows older, more detached from the man he used to be and more surrounded by aging sycophants.

He'll die in harness. He's driving Russia into the ground with no plan. When he goes, Russia will face crisis. 1/

Foreman: The Kursk submarine disaster was a huge political lesson for Putin.

He learned never to expose himself that way again. Everything since then has been stage-managed. 2/

Foreman: When the cruiser Moskva sank in 2022, the losses were hidden, families weren't informed and Putin made no public comment.

He had learned the lesson of Kursk and refused to be exposed that way again. 3/

Read 7 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jul 6

Foreman: Putin wasn't a major figure in the KGB. He was a functionary in a minor town in East Germany.

The head of the KGB residency there didn't even know who he was. He was spying on East Germans, not the West. 1/

Foreman: The judo analogy fits Putin better than the idea that he is a grand strategist playing multidimensional chess.

He is reactive. He sees opportunities and takes them rather than following some master plan. 2/

Foreman: There's a huge plot around Putin in many books. People imagine secret KGB circles planning Russia's future for decades.

I think that's rubbish. Putin was a functionary who got his chance, grabbed it and consolidated power. 3X