Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Apr 12, 2024 17 tweets 6 min read Read on X
The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/
Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/ Image
2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…
3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks.  5/ Image
4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…
Image
5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/
6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…
Image
Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…
Image
7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/
8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…
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9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/
There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…
Image
So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/
Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

Jan 30
Kyrylo Horbenko joined the Ukrainian army at 18 under the “18–24” contract.

After six months of service, he was killed by Russian artillery near Pokrovsk.

He was what Ukraine calls “the future of the army,” — WSJ. 1/ Image
Right after turning 18, Kyrylo joined the Armed Forces.

He wanted frontline experience to later enter a military academy his family could not afford.

He wanted to become an officer. He wanted to serve for life.

Less than six months later, he was dead. 2/
In October 2025, the 18-year-old soldier was sent to the Pokrovsk sector.

Russian forces there outnumbered Ukrainian units by up to 10 to 1.

Kyrylo was killed during an artillery strike when his group was rushed to reinforce positions. Out of six soldiers, only one had real combat experience. 3/
Read 11 tweets
Jan 30
Trump’s peace push on Ukraine runs into reality: territory, force, and exhaustion.

Washington’s idea is simple — Ukraine gives up land, gets security guarantees. Russia keeps bombing cities. Kyiv keeps fighting. 2026 offers three plausible paths, WSJ. 1/ Image
Scenario 1: Keep fighting, keep talking.

The most likely outcome. Talks continue. War grinds on. Ukraine refuses to hand over Donbas without firm US-backed security guarantees. Russia demands territory first, rejects Western troops. 2/
Putin hasn’t softened.

Russian strikes on energy, maximalist goals and continued mobilization signal Moscow plans to keep going.

Ex-defense minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk: Giving Donbas now would hand Russia territory it failed to take by force and a launchpad for the next war. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Jan 30
Petraeus: If Russia was ever successful in Ukraine, Moldova would be next. That country does not have capabilities to withstand Russian action. Then you start to worry about one or more of the Baltic states, in particular Lithuania, which has featured in Putin's diatribes 1/
Petraeus: Wars no longer clearly defined by trenches. It's so lethal to be in the area of the front lines. Ukraine has turned its incredible innovation in air, ground, and maritime systems into very substantial strategic achievements and have sunk over 35% of the Russian Black Sea fleet 2/
Petraeus: One of Russian calculations is that they can out suffer the Ukrainians the Europeans and the Americans. I don't think that is true or will prove to be true if the U.S takes the actions that I think we should be taking together with our European partners. 3X
Read 4 tweets
Jan 30
Washington stays silent as China escalated pressure on Japan and Taiwan.

China responded to Japanese PM Takaichi’s comments on Taiwan with threats, trade bans, travel warnings, and Chinese army (PLA) radar locks on Japanese aircraft, yet Trump has avoided pushback. — FP 1/ Image
Since fall 2025, Beijing has increased military, economic, and diplomatic coercion. The pressure on Taiwan expanded after a $11.1B U.S. arms package, launching its largest PLA exercises since 2022 and rehearsing blockades. Trump publicly dismissed the drills. 2/
U.S. silence contrasts with earlier responses, including 2013 bomber flights after China declared its air defense zone. In 2025, military signaling was delayed, limited, or absent, while China tightened economic coercion against Japan, including export restrictions. 3X
Read 4 tweets
Jan 29
American historian of the USSR and Russia Kotkin: Russia became a kind of subordinate or even vassal state to China.

They refuse to be a vassal state to the West and embraced being a vassal state to China. China could at any moment abandon Russia to its fate. 1/
Kotkin: The theory was that even your worst enemies can flip and join your alliance system.

You can defeat your enemies and co-opt them, change their behavior and make them your allies. West Germany and Japan were transformed into democracies, partners of the U.S. 2/
Kotkin: Europe is still today spending more money on Russian hydrocarbons than it is spending on supporting Ukraine in the war, still to this day, almost four years into this war. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Jan 29
65% of Trump voters back military action in at least one foreign country.

Iran tops the list: 50% of Trump voters support military intervention there, rising to 61% among self-identified "MAGA Republicans."

The new POLITICO poll shows how MAGA has changed. 1/ Image
32% of Trump voters support military action in Mexico, 30% in Colombia, 28% in Cuba — all targets Trump has publicly threatened as part of his Western Hemisphere dominance strategy. 2/
Only 18% of Harris voters support Iran intervention vs 50% of Trump voters. Just 10-11% of Harris voters back action in Mexico, Colombia, or Cuba. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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