Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Apr 12, 2024 17 tweets 6 min read Read on X
The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/
Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/ Image
2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…
3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks.  5/ Image
4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…
Image
5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/
6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…
Image
Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…
Image
7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/
8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…
Image
9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/
There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…
Image
So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/
Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

Apr 29
Fiona Hill: Trump still does not really listen to experts.

In the Iran crisis, he is sending out people with little high-level negotiating experience while believing he knows better than everybody. His gut, not expertise, is what drives decisions. 1/
Hill: Tactically the US campaign has been successful. Strategically it is a blunder because Trump did not understand Iran.

He assumed a top-down system like Russia or China, but Iran is resilient, deeply embedded, and full of people fighting for their lives. 2/
Hill: Hormuz was not unpredictable. Prior leaders knew Iran would do something there.

Trump ignored that risk and has now created something even larger than the 2008 financial crisis. This is not just his own mess. It is a global catastrophe. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Apr 29
A pastry chef from Bucha spends her days making cakes — and her nights shooting down Russian drones.

Lyudmyla Lysenko joined a volunteer air defense unit after returning to a destroyed city in April 2022. “Bucha looked like a zombie apocalypse,” — UkrPravda. 1/ Image
By day she holds a mixer. By night — a machine gun.

She now commands a mobile fire group in the “Bucha Witches,” a unit created in 2024 to hunt Shahed drones over Kyiv region. 2/
Every shift starts at 8am.

They check weapons, count ammo, inspect vehicles. When the alarm sounds, they deploy fast, set up guns, track drones, and open fire. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Apr 29
Trump’s Iran war is pumping billions into Russia’s war machine.

Russia earned €713M per day from fossil fuels in Mar and collected €7.4B in taxes — a 2-year high as oil prices surged >50% after the war began, Foreign Affairs. 1/ Image
Sanctions pressure weakened at the same time.

The US eased restrictions on Russian energy exports for 2 months to stabilize markets, allowing Moscow to sell more oil at higher prices with smaller discounts. 2/
Volumes rose, but revenues surged faster.

Oil exports increased ~16%, while seaborne crude revenues jumped ~115% in Mar, as global prices climbed and Urals discounts narrowed. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Apr 29
Ukrainian combat veterans are now training German troops for a future war with Russia.

Frontline soldiers arrived in Germany before Easter to train Bundeswehr units in drone warfare and modern combat, as Berlin prepares for a possible Russian attack by 2029, Kyiv Post. 1/ Image
Training runs across core combat schools.

Ukrainians teach at tank, engineer, and unmanned systems centers, with artillery schools next. Focus: drone use, protection, and integration into armored and artillery units. 2/
Instructors are not theorists.

“These are not staff officers,” Freuding says — they are soldiers with direct battlefield experience, the only force in Europe with large-scale combat experience against Russia. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Apr 29
Bolton: The US military did sink all Iranian mine-laying ships. But Iran is using fast boats, each carrying one mine and able to swarm tankers with man-portable rockets.

Trump has said for weeks the Iranian navy was destroyed. Except for these boats. 1/
Bolton: I wouldn't have entered into this ceasefire — it purely benefits Iran. They were getting pounded for six weeks.

When the bombing stops, they regroup and reorganize. Military pressure is what moved Iran at all. When you relent — they see American weakness. 2/
Bolton, on Trump's claim of regime change in Iran: It obviously hasn't happened. The Revolutionary Guard holds what they call purification campaigns to ensure no deviations from what the ayatollahs dictated.

That's not regime change. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Apr 29
Von der Leyen: Europe doubles down on support for Ukraine, while Russia doubles down on aggression.

We also adopted the 20th sanctions package. The sanctions are biting so hard that the Kremlin is restricting internet and free communication, creating a digital iron curtain. 1/
Von der Leyen: This is Europe’s second energy crisis in four years. In just 60 days of conflict, our fossil-fuel import bill rose by more than €27 billion without one extra molecule of energy.

The answer is obvious: cut imported fossil-fuel dependence and electrify Europe. 2/
Von der Leyen: Any peace agreement will have to restore full and permanent freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz without tolls.

It will also have to address Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile program. The consequences of this conflict may echo for months or years. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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