Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Apr 12, 2024 17 tweets 6 min read Read on X
The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/
Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/ Image
2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…
3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks.  5/ Image
4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…
Image
5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/
6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…
Image
Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…
Image
7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/
8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…
Image
9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/
There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…
Image
So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/
Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

Feb 19
Suppliers of death.

The Insider identified 300 Russian companies purchasing goods specifically for the military-industrial complex.

Sanction one firm — another appears. But mapping the full network at once could hit production harder. 1/ Image
In 2024, nearly 10,000 Russian companies imported sanctioned goods worth over $22B.

More than 2,000 of them were contractors for leading defense enterprises. Defense contractors imported over $5B in sanctioned goods. 2/
Using domestic transaction data matched with customs records, The Insider identified 160 key intermediaries tied directly to top military plants.

Their confirmed deliveries to defense firms — 80B rubles ($1B). 3/
Read 9 tweets
Feb 19
Ukrainian soldiers survive –25°C this winter — United24.

On the Sumy front, frozen trenches, failing engines, and constant drone surveillance define daily combat.

Commander “Bull”: “You’d doze off… open your eyes, and the snow had already covered you.” 1/ Image
The temperature drops to –25°C. At dawn, 8 km from Russian positions, anti-drone netting covers Ukrainian artillery.

Snow hides positions and exposes them. Footprints can give coordinates away within minutes. 2/
Bull commands an artillery unit of the 47th Mechanized Brigade. “The first two days without heating are manageable. But by the third or fourth day at –10°C, it gets really hard. Frostbite becomes real.” 3/
Read 10 tweets
Feb 19
MAGA could regret backing Europe’s far-right parties because they distrust America and define themselves against U.S. influence.

Janan Ganesh for FT: Europe’s nationalist movements often see the U.S. as rootless commerce, not nationhood. 1/ Image
Germany’s AfD leans pro-Russia in one of the most Atlanticist countries in Europe.

Hungary’s Viktor Orbán builds ties with China. Yet anti-China MAGA elevates Orbán above almost anyone but Trump. 2/
If “America First” means maximizing US leverage, why help bring to power governments in Berlin or Paris that resist American influence over time?

Nationalism at home. Nationalism abroad. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Feb 19
A 15-year-old Yana wakes under rubble in Kyiv. A North Korean KN-23 missile hit her home. Inside that missile were Western components — including British-made converters.

Despite sanctions, Russia and others receive components for their weapons — The Telegraph. 1/ Image
On April 24, 2025, 12 civilians were killed in their sleep in Kyiv. Yana’s parents and brother died. Her ribs and leg were shattered.

Zelenskyy said the missile contained 116 Western-made components. Sanctions exist. Yet the parts keep flowing. 2/
From 2022 to 2024, XP Power-labelled shipments worth $2.5M were imported into Russia. Nearly half moved via Hong Kong middlemen.

Dual-use electronics — as useful in a computer as in a ballistic missile. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Feb 19
Zelenskyy: I don’t need Putin’s historical bullshit. I know Russia better than Putin knows Ukraine.

He is doing his theories to postpone talks.

To end this war, we don’t need this historical crap.

1/
Zelenskyy: Killing Putin won’t help.

It’s not about these things. If Putin dies, there is no evidence that the next person will be any better.

2/
Zelenskyy: I can’t support the idea of just giving our territory to Russia.

I’m not sure our people would ever accept it — tens of thousands have died defending it.

Donbas is not just land. It’s our independence, our values, our people.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Feb 19
Russia is expanding the Russian Orthodox Church across Africa as a tool of Kremlin influence.

In less than three years, the church expanded from 4 to 34 countries, grew clergy to 270, registered 350 parishes. It’s like spiritual colonialism — Bloomberg. 1/ Image
Russia lacks China's resources in Africa.

China is sub-Saharan Africa's biggest trade partner. Russia ranks 33rd. But Moscow uses religion, language, scholarships. More than 32K African students study at russian universities. Since 2020, scholarships to Africans tripled. 2/
Putin created a Kremlin department to coordinate Russia's interactions with nations personally selected by him. Special team to handle Africa policy.

Lavrov: “Russia plans trade missions in 15 African countries by end of 2026.” 3/
Read 8 tweets

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