Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Apr 12, 2024 17 tweets 6 min read Read on X
The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/
Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/ Image
2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…
3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks.  5/ Image
4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…
Image
5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/
6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…
Image
Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…
Image
7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/
8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…
Image
9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/
There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…
Image
So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/
Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

Feb 18
Hillary Clinton: If Trump thinks he can dominate the Western Hemisphere and give Europe to Putin, he’s mistaken — and Europeans must prove it.

If you want a just, lasting peace in Ukraine, you have to better equip them. That’s the only thing Putin understands. 1/
Clinton: One of the biggest threats we face is Trump and Putin forcing an insecure, unjust end to the war in Ukraine that favors Putin.

There is reporting about corruption among their allies and oligarchs trying to profit from the misery and death of the Ukrainian people. 2/
Clinton: The rift between Europe and the US is deep. For a year, Trump and his administration have baited and insulted European leaders, countries and civilization.

After disbelief that a close ally would act this way, Europeans are pulling together and facing the reality. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Feb 18
Leavitt: Yesterday there was a round of trilateral talks between the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine. Meaningful progress was made.

Both sides agreed to brief their leaders and continue working toward a peace deal. Another round of talks will follow. 1/
Reporter: Zelenskyy said it is not fair Trump is saying Ukraine has to make concessions and not Russia.

Leavitt: The President would say it's not fair that thousands of Ukrainians are losing their lives, and Russians too, in this deadly war. 2/
Leavitt: The President also sees this situation as unfair for the American people who were funding the war effort before President Trump stopped it.

The U.S. continues selling weapons to NATO that are sent to Ukraine. 3X
Read 4 tweets
Feb 18
Ukraine’s former army chief Zaluzhnyi: Tensions with Zelenskyy began soon after the 2022 invasion over how to defend Ukraine.

It peaked when SBU agents raided my office. I called Yermak and warned: I will fight you. The 2023 counteroffensive dispute was especially bitter, AP. 1/ Image
Zaluzhnyi: Dozens of SBU officers entered my Kyiv headquarters in 2022. I stopped them from searching documents and computers. I viewed the raid as intimidation.

2/
Zaluzhnyi: My 2023 plan concentrated forces into a single fist toward Zaporizhzhia and the Sea of Azov to cut Russia’s land corridor to Crimea. Political decisions dispersed the troops and diluted the strike.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Feb 18
Stubb: Is it in U.S. interests that Finland, with its 1,340 km Russia border, has a strong army?

That Sweden and Norway defend the Arctic? That Russia creates no spheres of influence in Europe? Yes. Right now, interests matter more than values.

1/
Stubb: Europe and America’s interests sometimes align, sometimes don’t — values are complicated.

One strand is MAGA, which sees Europe as too liberal, “killing itself with immigration,” and attacks places like London as multicultural melting pots.

2/
Stubb: The other strand is policy — America First. There’s a pecking order: 1) Western Hemisphere, 2) Pacific, 3) Europe, 4) Middle East, 5) Africa. That’s the reality we live in now.

3X
Read 4 tweets
Feb 18
Kasparov: Any real compromise removes the causes of conflict. Ukraine-Russia “peace talks” are cowardly and corrupt, openly corrupt on Trump’s side.

Europe isn’t ready to admit this isn’t just a standoff, but a real war. Even after four years, it’s still living in illusions. 1/
Kasparov: The cause of this war is Putin’s desire to destroy Ukrainian statehood, restore imperial influence in Eastern Europe, and revise the Cold War’s outcome.

A “compromise” just lets him regroup — his war is against the liberal democratic West.

2/
Kasparov: Witkoff is basically a mid-level real estate speculator now trying to “sell property the size of New Jersey.”

Europe makes a brave face but avoids saying the simple words: Ukraine must win. Instead, it keeps searching for a middle ground to avoid decisive action.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Feb 18
Ukraine recaptured 78 sq miles of land in 5 days — its fastest pace since summer 2023.

That equals Russia’s total gains for the entire December, due to Russian battlefield communications collapsed, The Telegraph. 1/ Image
After Starlink access was restricted to verified Ukrainian terminals, up to 90% of Russian units reportedly lost connectivity — crippling drone coordination and command links. 2/
ISW: Ukrainian counterattacks likely leveraged the Starlink block.

Russian milbloggers report C2 disruption. Drones were grounded. Armored vehicles advanced through the grey zone — normally a kill zone. 3/
Read 7 tweets

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