Post

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
Click again on or Share Via icon
Click on Copy Link to Tweet
Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
More info at Twitter Help

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 12, 2024 • 17 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X

Scrolly

The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/

Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/

2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…

3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks. 5/

4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…

5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/

6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…

Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…

7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/

8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…

9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/

There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…

So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/

Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 19

Zelenskyy: Lukashenko says he doesn't want to be dragged into this war. He should be honest with his own people.

It's not him being dragged in, it's his entire country, dragged in by Russia. They've been doing this since day one of the full-scale invasion. That is a fact. 1/

Zelenskyy: When the full-scale war began, missiles flew from Belarus — killing children, killing adults.

He called and apologized, said he didn't control it, that Russia acted on his territory. I don't believe that. Now Russia will keep pushing him deeper into this war. 2/

Zelenskyy: Right now on Belarusian towers along our border there are Russian retranslators and equipment correcting fire on Ukrainian civilians.

People are dying every day because of this. Children are being wounded. Can he remove it? If he doesn't — we will do it ourselves. 3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 19

Keane: If we can’t go any place we want, when we want, for as long as we want, we don’t have verification.

Any Iran deal must include anywhere, anytime inspections. 1/

Keane: Iran manipulated the IAEA for years. Old protocol let Tehran decide where, when, and how long to inspect.

U.S. and Mossad intelligence must drive inspections. When it pointed to secret sites, enrichment, or centrifuges, Iran said: No deal. That’s not in the protocol. 2/

Keane: The nature of the regime has not changed. They say one thing and do another. We cannot trust them. We have to enforce compliance.

The U.S. could have finished the offensive operation. Now we are on a diplomatic path. We’ve got them on their knees. Let’s finish this. 3X

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 19

Fukuyama on Trump's Iran deal: This was not a win. It was a total US capitulation, merely solving a problem that Trump and Netanyahu themselves created by launching the war in the first place.

No regime change. No surrender. The IRGC is more firmly in control than ever before 1/

Fukuyama: No commitment to stop enriching uranium. No commitment to ending support for Hezbollah or Houthis. No agreement on protesters. All kicked down the road into 60-day negotiations.

Trump treated these issues as already conceded. But if so — why weren't they in the MOU? 2/

Fukuyama: It is very unlikely Iran will budge over the next two months. These are precisely the issues that speak to the regime's core identity and survival.

He chose to back down and accept a return to the status quo from before he started the war on February 28th. 3X

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 19

Petraeus: Ukraine will manufacture 7 million drones this year, doubled from last year. They use 10,000 per day.

Software changes every week or two, hardware every three to four weeks. About 60% of battlefield drones now use fiber optic cable extending 30 to 35 kilometers. 1/

Petraeus: Ukraine created an entirely new military branch, an Unmanned Systems Force alongside army, navy, and air force.

This organization is inflicting over 90% of all casualties on Russians on the battlefield daily. No other country has done anything like it. 2/

Petraeus: What is coming next: autonomous systems of autonomous systems.

Sensors collecting autonomously, integrated into a common picture, command and control making decisions, issuing orders to autonomous weapons. Coming soon to a theater near us. Ukraine will show it first 3X

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 19

Petraeus: Ukraine is outnumbered five to one in personnel and twelve to one in the economy.

They are taking the fight to Russia on the front lines, on the Black Sea, in the depth of the battlefield, and inside the Russian Federation itself. Every single day. 1/

Petraeus: Ukraine has sunk over 35% of the Russian Black Sea Fleet — without a navy.

They did it with aerial drones that find the ships and maritime drones that sink them, all designed by Ukrainians themselves. The fleet is now hiding in a port as far from Ukraine as possible. 2/

Petraeus: They have hit at least 40% of Russia's fuel storage and refineries.

They blew up a fuel depot in St. Petersburg the morning Putin opened his economic forum, then hit again the next day. Russia has taken more killed and wounded than the US did in all of World War II. 3X

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 19

Petraeus: There is a death zone of about 35 kilometers on the front lines in Ukraine. You do not drive a vehicle in it.

Commanders cannot visit their troops. There are no trenches, drones fly through trenches. Only survivability positions underground. You burrow in from the side. 1/

Petraeus: All resupply is done by remotely driven vehicles. Medical evacuation, ammunition, food, batteries — everything.

Soldiers come out at night to collect supplies and get back underground before the enemy can react. That is the reality of this war right now. 2/

Petraeus: I watched engagements in drone operation centers. A Russian soldier appears on screen.

If he is not back into cover very quickly — it is over. They use multiple surveillance drones, 5 to 10 minutes of battery life on station each. Then the suicide drones come. 3X