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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 12, 2024 • 17 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X

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The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/

Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/

2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…

3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks. 5/

4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…

5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/

6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…

Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…

7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/

8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…

9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/

There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…

So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/

Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jul 26

Krotevych, former Azov officer: Syrskyi would never admit a mistake. He would probably say his only mistake was being too soft. That is dangerous. In my view, he has repeatedly lied to Zelenskyy. 1/

Krotevych: Drapatyi will face an extremely difficult job. If allowed to build a strong team, he can succeed. Syrskyi placed loyalists throughout the army and pressured principled commanders. One man cannot change everything; reform requires honest reporting. 2/

Krotevych: Russia has never stopped because of losses. People are its cheapest resource. If Ukraine destroys one Russian infantryman and one truck, the truck is worth more to Russia than the soldier. 3/

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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jul 25

Russia will fund children conceived from the very soldiers it already sent to die in Ukraine.

The State Duma passed a bill giving their widows fully state-funded IVF and artificial insemination, drawn from the biomaterial these men banked before they deployed — United24. 1/

A widow can claim the state benefit for five years after her husband dies, and she keeps it only if she does not remarry.

She also needs a notarized consent form for the storage and use of his biomaterial, one the soldier had to sign in person while he was still alive. 2/

Russia will deliver the procedures under its program of state guarantees for free medical care, and its Health Ministry will write the detailed rules.

The bill funds both IVF and artificial insemination for these widows, but it still draws the line at surrogate motherhood. 3/

Read 8 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jul 25

CNN: Russian hackers spent a year targeting nuclear scientists, defense firms, governments, police, schools and energy.

They tested tools on Ukrainians first, then used them against NATO to seek Western military, logistics and policy intelligence. 1/

The campaign focused on email servers used by nuclear installations and the U.S. defense industrial base. Researchers say the hackers appeared interested in nuclear fusion and intelligence useful to Russia’s war against Ukraine. 2/

The exploit was unusually dangerous because victims did not need to click a link. Opening an email on a vulnerable system could let hackers steal three months of communications and an organization’s full email directory. 3/

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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jul 25

Laura Loomer: I said I didn’t care if Putin conquered Ukraine, had no problem with Putin, and mocked Zelenskyy for not wearing a suit.

People urged me to delete those posts, but I left them online so people could see what I said before and how I feel now. 1/

Loomer: We joked that after receiving billions, Zelenskyy could buy the most expensive Italian suit. I later realized it was much more serious than joking around.

I had been consuming a lot of Russian media and was influenced by Russian propaganda. 2/

Loomer: After the 2020 election, many conservatives were banned from social media and shut out of US news outlets.

RT [Russian state media] offered me a platform. It felt like I finally had a voice again. I took no money, but I regret accepting the offer. 3/

Read 7 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jul 25

Laura Loomer: I apologize to Ukrainians for what I said about their country. People here were kind to me.

I doubt Putin would sit down with me or Moscow would welcome me if I criticized its government. Zelenskyy answered every question I asked. 1/

Loomer: I expected Kyiv to have far more destruction and rubble.

Instead, people were living their lives. Nobody was hiding. They were smiling, walking their dogs, and the city looked far more put together than I expected. 2/

Loomer: During the 15-hour train ride, I saw areas that had been destroyed.

The conductor told us Russia tries to bomb train stations to disrupt people’s ability to travel freely. What surprised me most was how resilient Ukrainians are. 3X

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jul 25

Volker: There will never be a real peace agreement with Putin. That requires him to accept Ukraine as sovereign, Zelenskyy as its legitimate leader, and a real border.

He'll never agree to that. The best we'll get is a ceasefire, made as durable as we can. 1/

Volker: Putin isn't motivated by peace, lifted sanctions, or money.

He's motivated by rebuilding the Russian empire and subjugating Ukraine. Trump didn't fully grasp that at first, but the more he's dealt with Putin, the more he's realized Putin is lying to him. 2/

Volker: Putin doesn't want an off-ramp, and he's willing to inflict enormous suffering on Russia's own people to keep chasing his goal.

But oil and gas money will eventually stop covering the war, and he can't replace the roughly 30,000 soldiers he's losing a month. 3X