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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 12, 2024 • 17 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X

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The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/

Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/

2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…

3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks. 5/

4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…

5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/

6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…

Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…

7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/

8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…

9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/

There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…

So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/

Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Dec 8

Zelenskyy considers 5 candidates for Head of the Presidentʼs Office: Fedorov, Shmyhal, Budanov, Kyslytsya, Palisa — Suspilne.

Fedorov — Deputy PM. Leads major reforms and tech. Shmyhal — Defense Minister. Handles full defense budget and wartime responsibility. 1/

Kyslytsya — Deputy FM. Key on foreign issues. Zelenskyy: Not sure he wants internal work.

Palisa — Deputy Head of Presidentʼs Office. Zelenskyy: Very good military, but his priority is the war. 2/

Budanov — Spy Chief. Runs military intelligence, “important direction.”

Zelenskyy: Options are Shmyhal or Fedorov. But it’s like Jenga. Remove one piece — everything collapses. 3X

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Tymofiy Mylovanov

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Dec 8

Kasyanov, Putin’s first-term PM, says Putin reshaped Russia by “poisoning minds” with fear, loyalty tests and money.

He recalls Putin warning him: “If you get into politics, I’ll crush you.” He says this tactic later spread from elites to the whole population - The Times. 1/

After he distanced himself, Putin revived an old smear calling him “Misha two per cent” — a claim that he took a 2% cut from big deals while in office.

Kasyanov says the accusation was false but used to damage him and signal how dissenters would be handled. 2/

Russia later labeled him a “foreign agent” in 2023 and a “terrorist and extremist” in 2025.

The FSB accused him and other exiled opposition figures of plotting to overthrow Putin and funding Ukrainian units. 3/

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@Mylovanov

Dec 8

Gen. Dan Caine: Ukraine’s industrial base building tens of thousands and even hundreds of thousands of drones is extraordinary.

Those are the entrepreneurial lessons we need from that fight. It’s another case study in the importance of putting air power over a battlefield. 1/

Caine: The fixed and frozen lines in Ukraine show an opportunity to learn about protecting the force on the ground.

Having been one of those guys on the ground, I value air power that can put an adversary in a particular place of pain. We must scale our own FPV capabilities. 2/

Caine: A major lesson from Ukraine is the need for mass.

Future wars will involve unprecedented kinetic and non-kinetic exchanges.

So we’ll need a new high-low mix: a few bespoke systems, but far more low-cost, expendable ones that create many dilemmas for an adversary. 3X

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Tymofiy Mylovanov

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Dec 7

62 days underground. Two infantrymen from Ukraine’s 31st Brigade, Bohdan and Ivan, survived in a 3-square-meter basement near Pokrovske. No light, no communication, food and water dropped by drone.

Any detection by a Russian drone meant instant death, The Guardian. 1/

At the beginning, 3 Russian soldiers appeared just 10-15 meters away. The Ukrainians killed 2, the 3rd managed to call in drones. Strikes sealed their exit.

For weeks they could not surface. Their withdrawal took 3 days on foot in fog and rain to avoid thermal cameras. 2/

While they were underground, Moscow issued its peace plan: Ukraine must hand over all of Donetsk, abandon NATO, and legitimize Russia’s occupation. It was an ultimatum for surrender. Ukraine rejected it. 3/

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Tymofiy Mylovanov

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Dec 7

Macron: Russia’s position about peace in Ukraine hasn’t changed since Istanbul 2022.

It demands control of all claimed territories, no security guarantees for Ukraine, and political changes in Kyiv.

These are surrender terms. Peace proposals exist, but Russia rejects them. 1/

Macron: If Russia keeps these terms, talks cannot move. The only strategy is to continue military support for Ukraine and provide economic pressure on Russia.

The US and Europe must stay aligned: the US leads diplomacy, Europe provides security guarantees and frozen assets. 2/

Macron: China and Brazil work in the “group of friends of peace.” China accepts that any peace must prevent renewed aggression.

Defense chiefs from the US, France, and the UK coordinate on security planning, but Russia shows no readiness to negotiate. 3X

Read 4 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Dec 7

Democratic Senator Peter Welch: Congress rejected Trump’s 28-point “peace plan” because it looked like a surrender to Russia.

The plan required Ukraine to give up territory it still controls — that’s unacceptable. 1/

Peter Welch: Some in Trump’s team lean toward Russia, but he wants a deal. A sanctions bill now has 85 co-sponsors — almost never happens in the Senate.

Any peace agreement must ensure Russia cannot resume aggression. Ukraine needs real security guarantees. 2/

Peter Welch: If peace talks fail, the U.S. should increase pressure: allow Ukraine to hit military sites inside Russia and cut Moscow’s oil revenues from India and China.

The terms must be set by Ukraine — not Washington and not Moscow. 3X