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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 12, 2024 • 17 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X

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The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/

Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/

2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…

3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks. 5/

4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…

5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/

6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…

Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…

7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/

8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…

9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/

There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…

So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/

Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 7

Zelenskyy is meeting Starmer, Macron, and Merz in London to decide how to force Putin into a ceasefire.

What pressure to add, which Russian targets to squeeze, and how Europe keeps negotiations moving while Trump is focused on Iran, — The Telegraph. 1/

The summit follows Zelenskyy’s open letter challenging Putin to a face-to-face meeting and a truce along the current front lines.
Putin: “I don’t see any point for now.” 2/

Zelenskyy responded that Russia is “choosing war again.”
Putin does not want peace, so Russia should have less money and face more pressure. 3/

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Tymofiy Mylovanov

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Jun 7

GPS jamming has reached space, and from orbit a single source can blank an entire continent at once, far beyond any jammer on the ground.

Scientists traced short GPS outages across Europe, from Iceland to Italy, to three Russian satellites in at least 3 of 75 cases logged since 2019, NYT. 1/

The disruptions are short, lasting under 10 seconds, but they spread across a continent.

They hit the GPS networks of the U.S., China and the EU. Russia's own system stays untouched. 2/

Richard Bowden of Spanish tech firm GMV said the signal is clearly structured and well designed.

It sits next to a widely used GPS frequency but runs strong enough to bleed over and drown it out. 3/

Read 10 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 7

FT: Zelenskyy invited Roman Abramovich to Kyiv on May 21 and asked him to tell Putin he was ready for their first one-on-one summit after more than four years of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

Ukraine tried a direct peace channel. Putin still saw no point in meeting. 1/

Ukraine wanted to prove it takes direct peace talks seriously while the US, which tried to broker a ceasefire, focuses on the Middle East war.

Kyiv also sees leverage in Russia’s slowed offensive, huge casualties, and Ukraine’s deep strikes behind enemy lines. 2/

Kyiv hopes its success in halting Russia’s offensive, now slowed to a crawl, and hitting deep behind enemy lines can push momentum toward an immediate ceasefire.

Putin still believes Russia’s larger resources will eventually wear down Ukraine’s resistance over time. 3/

Read 10 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

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Jun 7

Snyder: Ukraine is a test of whether people put their country’s interests first or follow the whims of leaders who admire oligarchs and dictators.

People understand that Ukrainians have the right to defend themselves and that they can and should win this war. 1/

Snyder: You're always in history and your choices matter. Not making a choice is also a choice. Trump has weaknesses. He can't win wars, he loses them.
His corruption and greed create vulnerabilities. History won't solve these problems on its own. 2/

Snyder: Trump is trying to blow America’s chance to be a power in the 21st century. The answer is not to reinvent who you are, but to remember who you are and act on it. If enough people do small things together that affirm those values, it will matter. 3/

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Tymofiy Mylovanov

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Jun 7

Putin's chief propagandists can no longer explain what Russia is fighting for.

Aleksandr Dugin spent decades justifying Russia's war against the West. Asked what is worth fighting for today, he failed to give a clear answer, The Atlantic. 1/

Dugin answered with a fantasy of Russians leaving cities for the countryside, living among "neo-ancient ruins" and connecting through an "internet of Russian villages."

Even his interviewer, Sobchak, struggled to keep a straight face. 2/

At the end of May, he wrote that Russia's current elites give the country "critically low" chances of achieving victory.

He also questioned whether those elites could even hold the country together. 3/

Read 8 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 6

Petraeus: The single most catastrophic imaginable event would be conflict between the U.S. and China.

America is spinning more plates than at any time since the Cold War, but the China plate is bigger than all the others combined. It cannot even wobble. 1/

Petraeus: Xi’s goal is Taiwan, reunification is his last bucket-list item. The task is to make sure that every morning in Beijing, when Xi looks at Taiwan, he concludes: not today.

That is the most important mission of the U.S. military. 2/

Petraeus: Deterrence in the Indo-Pacific rests on two things: China’s assessment of U.S. and allied capabilities, and America’s willingness to use them.

The U.S. must transform faster by learning from Ukraine and the Gulf. 3/