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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 12, 2024 • 17 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X

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The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/

Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/

2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…

3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks. 5/

4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…

5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/

6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…

Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…

7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/

8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…

9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/

There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…

So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/

Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 10

Europe’s defense is shifting from Brussels to a Germany-Poland core, with France and the UK supplying nuclear and expeditionary support.

As the US signals Europe must carry primary responsibility by 2027, while Russia could be ready to attack NATO within 5 years, FA. 1/

Germany becomes the backbone of European defense.

Berlin plans $750B in military spending over 4 years, now holds the world’s 4th-largest defense budget, and will set standards as US influence over European security declines. 2/

Poland becomes the frontline force.

Warsaw spends 4.5% of GDP on defense, rapidly buying artillery, armor, and air defense to slow any Russian advance, prioritizing speed and domestic production over European suppliers. 3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 10

Ukraine’s top negotiator says a deal with Russia may come soon.

Kyrylo Budanov: “They all understand the war needs to end. I don’t think it will be long.” He says talks are moving toward a settlement despite limited visible progress, Bloomberg. 1/

Budanov, ex-head of military intelligence, leads Ukraine’s negotiating team.

He oversees talks with the US and Russia and manages prisoner exchanges that have already returned hundreds of Ukrainians from captivity. 2/

Budanov says positions are still "maximalist" but adds that both sides now understand the limits of what is acceptable — calling that “enormous progress” in negotiations. 3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 10

Ukraine is winning from Trump's Iran war. The US air defenses are too costly ato counter cheap Iranian drones. Ukraine is the only country with 4 years of proven combat experience against. Gulf states now line up to buy Ukrainian weapons — Christian Caryl in FP. 1/

On March 17, Zelenskyy addressed British Parliament and pitched Ukraine as a 21st-century arsenal of democracy. Days later he signed military cooperation deals with Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar, and launched trade talks with four more countries. 2/

Gulf states hit the limits of their US-supplied air defenses — too costly, too complex, already running low on munitions. Ukraine offers battle-tested drone defense built on 4 years of fighting Iranian Shaheds. Cheaper, faster, proven in combat. 3/

Read 9 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 10

Bolton: Marco Rubio should lead the US delegation. That is his job.

Sending the vice president to meet some unknown Iranian raises the stakes unnecessarily, and you do not let your adversary pick who you send to negotiate. 1/

Bolton: Netanyahu says the ceasefire does not apply to Lebanon and that is exactly what Trump and Vance agreed to.

It is Iran and Pakistan saying Lebanon should be covered. This is not Israel threatening the ceasefire. It is a disagreement over what was actually agreed. 2/

Bolton: Iran may not even show up. They think time is on their side, and they think Trump backed down with the ceasefire.

It is entirely possible they will not appear at all, because they are inclined to press what they see as their advantage. 3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 10

Applebaum: Orban plays the role of Russia’s puppet in Europe. He blocks EU money for Ukraine, blocks sanctions on Russia and ties his fortunes to Moscow.

Yet JD Vance went to Hungary to present him as the champion of “Western civilization.” 1/

Applebaum: The war in Ukraine is about whether Ukraine gets to exist as a nation. Russia has never given up its war aim, which remains the conquest or control of all Ukraine.

To call this haggling over a few square kilometers is an affront and an outrage. 2/

Applebaum: Trump insulted Europe, sneered at its security needs, did not tell allies what he was doing in Iran, then complained NATO was not there for him.

Europeans are not going to leap to the defense of an unpopular president fighting an unpopular war. 3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 10

Applebaum: Orban’s campaign is not even about Hungary. It is about inventing an evil enemy, and that enemy is Ukraine.

All over Budapest there were posters of Zelenskyy and AI videos meant to create a fake world where Ukrainians are somehow the threat. 1/

Applebaum: This is the first election in 16 years where Orban faces a real challenger.

After losing once, he returned to power determined never to lose again, rewrote the system, changed voting rules, and captured the institutions of the state. 2/

Applebaum: He then built a nepotistic, corrupt machine across the judiciary, bureaucracy, media, universities, and big parts of the economy.

It keeps his party powerful, keeps him wealthy, and leaves Hungary with stagnation, corruption, and terrible health care. 3/