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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 12, 2024 • 17 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X

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The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/

Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/

2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…

3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks. 5/

4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…

5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/

6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…

Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…

7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/

8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…

9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/

There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…

So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/

Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

May 25

Czech President Pavel: if Russia's violations of NATO airspace continue, the alliance will have to shoot down unmanned, or manned , aircraft.

Russia does not understand nice language. They mostly understand the language of power. — The Guardian. 1/

Pavel proposed asymmetric responses: switching off Russia's internet or satellites, cutting Russian banks from the global financial system.

"Not killing people — but sensitive enough to make Russia understand this is not the way they should go."

2/

Pavel on how Russia calibrates its provocations: When I asked them why they do provocative actions — overflights, close encounters over battleships in the Baltic — their answer was 'because we can.'

That's exactly the kind of behaviour we allowed.

3/

Read 7 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

May 25

Former Ukrainian FM Dmytro Kuleba: Poroshenko already understood Normandy was really a 3+1 format: Russia, Germany and France on one side, Ukraine on the other.

Not because Berlin and Paris wanted us destroyed, but because they imagined peace through Ukrainian concessions. 1/

Kuleba: In Paris, Putin realized Zelenskyy had become president of Ukraine. He expected a show-business Zelenskyy from the post-Soviet world.

Instead, Zelenskyy came as president — and refused the Minsk algorithm Russia had pushed onto Ukraine with Germany and France. 2/

Kuleba: The main goal is not to break one specific person, but to break Ukrainians’ will to resist.

One way is to spread “the authorities are bad” until society starts eating itself. Different actors add their interests, and it becomes a cumulative bomb. 3/

Read 7 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

May 25

Two years ago a Ukrainian seven-year-old boy named Oleh was declared an orphan and placed with the family of a Russian paratrooper from Pskov Oblast.

In 2022 his adoptive father served in the unit that killed civilians in Bucha — Ukrainska Pravda. 1/

Oleh is one of 37 children taken from the Donetsk orphanage “Teremok” on February 18, 2022 — six days before the full-scale invasion. That day 626 orphans were taken from occupied territories to Russia. 2/

Oleh was lifted by his arms and carried onto a bus. The children were born after 2014 — in occupation. They waved through the windows. 3/

Read 14 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

May 25

Russia’s elites start to believe Putin is leading the country into a dead end — but still expect him to escalate the war, not stop it.

One businessman close to the Kremlin: “There is profound disappointment in Putin,” The Guardian. 1/

Putin publicly projects calm and control.

Days after reports claimed he was hiding in a bunker fearing assassination or a coup, Kremlin TV showed him casually driving his former schoolteacher to dinner at the Kremlin carrying flowers in jeans and a light jacket. 2/

Behind the image, cracks are spreading.

Russian officials, business figures, and Western intelligence sources describe growing frustration over the stalled war, economic decline, internet shutdowns, and “senseless, self-destructive decisions.” 3/

Read 11 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

May 25

Zelenskyy: Russians just destroyed the Chornobyl museum — built one month ago. Crazy assholes.

We strike military targets — weapons production, energy that funds their army. Russia hits museums, schools, apartments.

1/

Zelenskyy: Russia destroyed the Chornobyl museum — built to honor those who saved lives. Then hospitals, kindergartens, schools.

They call it retaliation. They started this war. When we respond, we hit military targets. When they respond, they kill civilians.

2/

Zelenskyy: Russia struck Kyiv — residential buildings, schools, one of the city's oldest food markets burned.

The Chornobyl Museum destroyed. National Art Museum damaged. 69 injured in the capital. Two dead. My condolences to all who lost their loved ones.

3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

May 25

Rubio: Iran deal still in progress. The offer is solid — open the Strait, enter real time-limited nuclear talks.

Every country we've briefed calls it the right thing for the world. President won't rush and won't take a bad deal. Diplomacy gets every chance first.

1/

Rubio: Lebanon and Israel aren't the problem — Hezbollah is. Last night they called for the Lebanese government's overthrow.

100% Iranian proxy. They victimize Lebanon's own people. The 45-day ceasefire holds. We work the track and make progress.

2/

Rubio: Israel always has the right to defend itself — during the ceasefire and beyond.

If Hezbollah fires missiles, Israel responds. That's never been in question.

3X