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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 12, 2024 • 17 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X

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The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/

Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/

2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…

3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks. 5/

4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…

5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/

6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…

Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…

7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/

8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…

9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/

There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…

So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/

Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jan 7

The UK and France have pledged to deploy troops and weaponry to Ukraine as part of security guarantees to underpin a proposed peace deal.

A European-led deterrence force would provide reassurance in the air, at sea and on land with US support — FT.

1/

UK PM Starmer said allies made commitments paving "the way for the legal framework under which British, French and partner forces could operate on Ukrainian soil."

After a ceasefire, the UK and France will establish military hubs across Ukraine with protected weapons facilities.

2/

The commitment is the most significant promise of ongoing support from European allies in the "coalition of the willing" as US-led peace negotiations gain momentum.

Macron said there's been recent "convergence" between US, Ukrainian and European positions.

3/

Read 9 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jan 6

Dmytro, Russian POW: Try to leave your position and we’ll shoot you ourselves. That’s what commanders told us.

Over the radio, wounded soldiers begged to pull back — some without arms, some without legs.

[Russians treat their people no better than enemies]

1/

Dmytro: We walked for five days and nights with no food or water, sleeping in forest pits.

Wounded were brought in, one had lost a leg to a mine, but no food, no medicine arrived.

About 25–30 went in. Only three survived.

2X

Source:

Read 4 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jan 6

They stripped me naked and put a dead body next to me. “If you move, you’re next.”

Russian forces told this to a Ukrainian captured near Mariupol on March 3, 2022. He spent more than three years in captivity.

This is the story of Oleksandr Hurzhov — Hromadske. 1/

Hurzhov is 30, from Mariupol. Russian troops captured him less than a week after the full-scale invasion began.

He was wounded, cut off from Ukrainian units, and later listed as AWOL while in captivity. 2/

Russian guards beat him, used electric shocks, and staged mock executions.

They searched his phone, tried to extract information, and took his money. They never filed charges. 3/

Read 12 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jan 6

Sikorski: Putin may have hoped, as he did from the beginning, that democracies are pathetic, democracies don't have the staying power.

Now he has to be ready to fight for another two years. And it's not clear that his army and his economy can bear that burden. 1/

Sikorski: The list of agreements where West Europeans decide above the heads of Central and Eastern Europe is a long and a very unhappy one.

And we know what they are. The latest ones, of course, were Minsk I and Minsk II, and we don't need a Minsk III. 2/

Sikorski: We need to rebuild our defense industry to deter Putin irrespective of what the United States does. Intention is one thing, but capability is another.

Till the end of the decade, we have to build the kind of military that Putin will be reluctant to challenge. 3X

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jan 6

A 55-year-old Ukrainian infantryman went to the front for two weeks.

He stayed on the front line, meters from Russian positions, for 165 days.

This is the story of “Udav,” a soldier of the 152nd Separate Jaeger Brigade, — Ukrainska Pravda. 1/

Udav entered the position on June 18, 2025. He exited on November 30.

Command attempted to rotate him five times, but no replacement reached the position. 2/

Planned rotation intervals changed over time. Initial rotations lasted 3–4 days, then two weeks, and later up to a month.

Command cited shortages of infantry and problems with incoming replacements. 3/

Read 13 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jan 6

John Bolton: Putin believes Ukraine belongs in a restored Russian empire and launched unprovoked aggression.

Ukraine posed no threat to Russia. That’s nothing like Venezuela, which directly threatened U.S. security. Ukraine, Taiwan, and Venezuela are not comparable cases.

1/

Bolton: After removing Maduro, Trump signaled the U.S. would “run Venezuela for a while.”

By sidelining the democratic opposition and dealing with Maduro’s inner circle, Trump risks settling for “Maduro 2.0” to secure oil—undercutting the case for removing him at all.

2/

Bolton: Venezuela is playing for time. Maduro’s inner circle is signaling “cooperation” to stall, secure loyalty from the military, and colectivos and line up backing from China, Russia, Iran, and Cuba.

This is a classic delay tactic—not a move toward a democratic transition.
3/