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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 12, 2024 • 17 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X

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The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/

Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/

2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…

3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks. 5/

4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…

5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/

6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…

Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…

7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/

8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…

9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/

There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…

So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/

Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Mar 22

Niall Ferguson: If the United States is going to learn anything from what happened in the Black Sea, a lot of damage can be done with some fairly basic sea drones.

The Ukrainians created enough risk that the Russian Black Sea Fleet has been knocked out of the war. 1/

Ferguson: If U.S. is going to help the fleet insurers, they're going to have to step up on a much larger scale. The fiscal constraints of the U.S. are real.

Any great power that's spending more on interest payments on its debt than on defense will not be great indefinitely. 2/

Ferguson: If the Russians can build 4 million Shahed drones in a year, who knows how this can develop? Shahed drones are really easy to make.

They're still a major problem, and it's harder to track down somebody firing a Shahed than a ballistic missile. 3/

Read 7 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Mar 22

“Do you wish to continue serving in the Russian Federation?” — “Why the fuck would I?”
That was 18-year-old cadet Dmytro Klymovych answering the Russian officer who seized their academy in Sevastopol. 1/

He was one of the cadets who sang the Ukrainian anthem while Russians raised their flag. During the full-scale invasion Russians took him prisoner — beating him day and night. Now he is home, making up for lost time with his son — Hromadske. 2/

March 20, 2014. Two days after Russia annexed Crimea. Russians raise their tricolor over the academy. Loudspeakers blast ceremonial music to drown out what happened next. Dozens of cadets ran onto the parade ground and sang the Ukrainian anthem. 3/

Read 12 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Mar 22

“We must face reality — the West has split.”

Finland’s President Stubb: “Salvage what you can” of the trans-Atlantic alliance as Trump’s policies fracture relations with Europe and weaken pressure on Russia, Telegraph. 1/

Stubb: “I’m more pessimistic now, in that sense, more realistic.”

Stubb admits that Trump’s actions — tariffs, easing Russia sanctions, and acting without allies — have shifted the US policy away from Europe. 2/

Stubb: “Ukraine today is much better on the battlefield than it was a year ago. In the past 3 months, Ukraine has killed over 90,000 Russian soldiers.

Russians aren't able to recruit soldiers at the same pace they are losing them. 80% of the deaths come through drones.” 3/

Read 9 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Mar 22

A Russian soldier surrendered via Telegram instead of fighting.

POW: I wrote to the “I Want to Live” hotline. A bot took my details and passport. I sent my location. Then they gave a password, passed me to another operator, and connected me with someone on the ground.

1/

POW: I came from conscription, spent 6–7 months without work. After a fight in the city, four people filed charges.

I got 3 years in a correctional facility and a $8,000 fine. I signed a contract to clear it and debts, but nothing was cleared. They sent me to assault units.

2/

POW: I was sent to Kupiansk and thrown into assault within a day.

Moved 13 km through a pipe, held a building for 5 months with no rotation or supply. We decided to surrender — otherwise we would die.

3/

Read 9 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Mar 22

Russian commanders treat their own soldiers like disposable bodies.

They force men to fight each other to death, beat and electrocute them, strip them naked and tie them to trees in freezing cold.

Wounded men on crutches go straight back into assaults – Daily Mail. 1/

Videos show commanders chaining soldiers by the neck inside small boxes and mocking them with food

One man gets a plate thrown at his head while a commander pours water over him and tells him he will die there. Others get forced to crawl through mud while being kicked and hit 2/

In one clip, two naked soldiers lie in a pit while a commander fires bullets into the ground next to them and orders them to stay there.

In another, men tied to trees get beaten, threatened with execution and forced to bark like dogs while commanders humiliate them. 3/

Read 9 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Mar 22

Pomerantsev: We’re approaching a moment where discussion about Russia is not about countering disinformation to defend democracy.

But about how to “fuck Russia up,” because in a war you need to to beat the psychological daylight out of our enemy, not just defend democracy. 1/

Pomerantsev: Russia is trying to psych us out.

They’re hitting us with bombardments and then with loads of propaganda to make us feel unsettled and concerned and scared.

The best psychological defense teaches you how to work with your own emotions. 2X