Post

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
Click again on or Share Via icon
Click on Copy Link to Tweet
Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
More info at Twitter Help

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 12, 2024 • 17 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X

Scrolly

The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/

Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/

2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…

3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks. 5/

4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…

5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/

6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…

Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…

7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/

8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…

9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/

There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…

So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/

Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jul 9

NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Transformation Vandier: Patriot production is limited — the US can't supply the Gulf, Pacific, and Europe at once.

We need more from all sources. Ukrainians are already building their own ABM system. 1/

Vandier: NATO acquires massive deep precision strike ammunition. Expensive weapons hit hardened targets.

Cheap mass-produced ammo saturates the front. Any massive troop gathering sits under a strike umbrella. That's deterrence by denial.

2/

Vandier: Aegis Ashore is efficient against specific ballistic missiles. Turkey, Italy, France, MBDA all ramp up ABM programs.

Ballistic missiles are expensive — numbers favor us. Israel proves the system works. I'm confident we can fight this battle.

3X

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jul 9

Zaluzhnyi: Do not assume Russia has lost the war.

Russia has not achieved its original political objectives. But it still fights, occupies substantial Ukrainian territory, and shows no intention of accepting terms that would mean defeat, — for Telegraph. 1/

Zaluzhnyi: Ukraine cannot yet claim outright victory either.

Kyiv has stopped Russia’s main goals and damaged its economy and military. But Ukraine still depends heavily on Western money, weapons, technology, and air defense. 2/

Zaluzhnyi: This is no longer a war of swift manoeuvres. It is a war of attrition.

Tactical gains now come at enormous cost. Positions can be taken, but holding them, reinforcing them, and evacuating the wounded is harder under constant drone surveillance. 3/

Read 13 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jul 9

A Russian ex-convict spent a decade in Ukraine under a fake identity, built weapons for the front, and married three women who never knew his real name.

Now Interpol wants him, and Ukraine may hand him over. His real name is Ruslan Puptaev, Babel. 1/

Born 1987 in Kyrgyzstan, raised in Russia’s Ulyanovsk region. Convicted twice — theft at 16, assault at 19.

Russian courts gave him 9 years. 2/

In prison he converted to Islam. Chechen and Dagestani inmates told him about Russian war crimes in their countries.

That’s when he decided to leave Russia. 3/

Read 15 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jul 9

For the first time since the 2022 mobilisation, ordinary Russians are scared. Petrol is rationed and Ukrainian drones hit refineries far from the front.

55% now say people around them feel anxious, up from 40% a year ago. The war has reached everyone — The Economist. 1/

Drone attacks once hit only cities like Kursk and Belgorod. On July 6th Ukrainian drones struck Russia's largest refinery in Omsk, 2,500 km from the front.

The southbound Moscow trains that once carried families to the sea now run spookily empty, crowded with uniforms. 2/

Petrol is rationed across the country. Drivers queue two or three hours for a daily cap of 20 or 30 litres, and many stations have run dry.

Crimea and Novorossiysk banned retail petrol sales. Only officials, public services and fuel-connected businessmen may fill up. 3/

Read 11 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jul 9

Stubb: Russia won't end this war from economic pain or battlefield losses — 1 dead Ukrainian to 8 Russians.

What changes it: Russian population turning against the war. Oil strikes, cancelled Crimea summer camps, internet shutdowns. Pressure forces ceasefire and negotiations. 1/

Stubb: US foreign policy is transactional right now — they'd say so themselves.

They sanctioned Rosneft earlier, hitting Russia hard. Now they're reversing that decision.

2/

Stubb: Worst case is a test of Article 5 — quite far away. NATO defends 1 billion people, never been attacked except on 9/11.

But when the war ends in Ukraine, threat level rises. We need European capabilities and American presence.

3X

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jul 9

Volker, ex US-NATO Amb.: Zelenskyy has figured out how to deal with Trump.

By making clear that Ukraine wants a ceasefire and wants to end the war, he puts the spotlight on Putin, who doesn't. That gives Trump the best chance to pressure Russia. 1/

Volker: Europe needs Ukraine inside NATO. Russia is a threat to all of Europe.

Ukraine is already one of Europe's most capable countries in defending Europe, fighting Russia and producing the defence technology, industry and know-how everybody will need. 2/

Volker: Trump has realised Russia is weaker than he thought.

Russia can't defend its own airspace, is losing oil refining and export capacity, black smoke is rising over Moscow, while Ukraine is doing pretty well. Putin's argument is becoming less convincing. 3/