Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Apr 12, 2024 17 tweets 6 min read Read on X
The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/
Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/ Image
2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…
3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks.  5/ Image
4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…
Image
5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/
6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…
Image
Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…
Image
7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/
8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…
Image
9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/
There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…
Image
So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/
Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

May 4
Macron: The Russian war against Ukraine revealed our over-dependence on Russian gas.

We are experiencing the cost of our over-dependence on the US in defense and security, and will probably experience the cost of our over-dependence vis-à-vis China.

1/
Macron: You cannot have sustainable strategic autonomy on defense if you are 100% dependent on other countries for semiconductors or food.

We experienced the cost of over-dependence in past years, including dependence on China.

2/
Macron: Democracy, rule of law, free trade, and climate through innovation create real links among allies. Our predictability on this agenda is a big advantage.

When I look at the Gulf, Asian countries, Latin America or Africa — they just want predictable partners

3X
Read 5 tweets
May 4
Putin fears a coup, an assassination and distrusts his own elite. The top risk: Sergei Shoigu.

CNN: Putin installed surveillance in staff homes, banned cooks and guards from public transport, introduced double screening for visitors and switched inner circle phones to offline.1/ Image
On March 5, 2026, authorities arrested Ruslan Tsalikov, Shoigu’s close ally.

This move weakens Shoigu and breaks informal “elite protection” rules inside the system. 2/
On December 22, 2025, attackers killed Lt. Gen. Fanil Sarvarov in Moscow.

After that, Putin expanded protection: 10 more senior commanders received FSO security. 3/
Read 6 tweets
May 4
Denys Yeromov spent 38 months in captivity in Chechnya. No toilet in the cell — only five-liter bottles. Washing once a week.

In all that time he was allowed to call his father once. On April 24, 2026 he was exchanged, writes Suspilne. 1/ Image
Denys was mobilized in the summer of 2022 and went to serve in the 10th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade Edelweiss in Donetsk Oblast. Seven months on the front line and in March 2023 contact disappeared. 2/
His father Serhiy and mother began searching for any information: scrolling social media, watching videos, joining groups about prisoners of war and writing appeals to Zelenskyy, Lubinets, Budanov and Maliuk. 3/
Read 10 tweets
May 4
Kasparov: In Russia, tsars and dictators are forgiven everything except a bad war. If the war goes well, nobody cares how many die.

But when the ruler cannot win, discontent begins. That is the law of Russian history, and we are seeing it again now. 1/
Kasparov: There is no remorse in Russia for starting this war. The complaint is only that it cannot be won.

Ukraine is not striking homes. It is striking military, oil, and arms targets. Even that was enough to make Russians feel abandoned, exposed, and afraid. 2/
Kasparov: The key question is not what society thinks, but what Putin’s oil-and-gas beneficiaries think.

Strikes on Tuapse and Perm are not just “arrivals” to them. They are direct hits on cash flow, rents, and the business interests that hold the regime together. 3/
Read 6 tweets
May 4
Zelenskyy: This summer, Putin will choose — escalate or move to talks.

We must increase pressure now to force him toward diplomacy.

1/
Zelenskyy: The Iran war is unresolved and risks long-term instability, higher energy prices, and political shifts.

We need real energy coordination, prepare for winter, and secure the Strait of Hormuz.

2/
Zelenskyy: Russia may hold its May 9 parade without military equipment — for the first time in years.

It suggests shortages and fear of drones over Moscow. A signal of weakness, not strength.

3/
Read 6 tweets
May 3
Applebaum: Of course Orban was authoritarian. The fact that he gave up power peacefully proves nothing by itself.

What matters is what it took to beat him: 16 years in power, panic before the vote, and a campaign that felt to Hungarians like regime change. 1/
Applebaum: To defeat Orban, Peter Magyar had to endure bugging, sex-tape leaks, grotesque smears, and an 18-month grassroots campaign.

No democratic leader should have to go through that. That is what unwinding authoritarian rule looked like. 2/
Applebaum: There is a very narrow window to move fast after authoritarianism. In Poland, taking back state media quickly worked.

Moving slowly on the courts left a mess. That is one of the clearest lessons for Hungary now. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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