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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 12, 2024 • 17 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X

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The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/

Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/

2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…

3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks. 5/

4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…

5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/

6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…

Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…

7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/

8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…

9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/

There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…

So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/

Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Mar 11

Ukraine will train the German army.

Berlin agreed that Ukrainian military instructors will teach German troops combat lessons from the war against Russia as NATO prepares for a potential confrontation by 2029, Reuters. 1/

German army chief Christian Freuding: “The Ukrainian military is currently the only one in the world with frontline experience against Russia.”

He said Germany has “high expectations” from the Ukrainian instructors. 2/

Western intelligence estimates Russia could be ready for a large-scale attack on NATO by 2029.

Freuding: “That’s almost the day after tomorrow. We have no time — the enemy doesn’t wait for us to declare we're ready.” 3/

Read 7 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Mar 11

Kurt Volker: The world is not moving in Russia’s direction.

Putin believes he can manipulate Trump, divide the West, support far-right parties and undermine democracy using disinformation and social media.

He knows that if he loses this game, he loses everything. 1/

Volker: Dictators are threatened by democracy, especially near them where their own people could say: ‘We should have that too.’

That is why Putin sees a democratic, prosperous, sovereign Ukraine as a threat. Russian people could see the hollowness inside his regime. 2/

Volker: Putin has seen Russian equipment does not stand up well against Western systems.

Ukrainians have been more innovative, including with drones, while Russia is losing more people on the battlefield. NATO has also stuck together and expanded with Finland and Sweden. 3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Mar 11

Kim Jong-un watched the US bomb Iran and drew one conclusion.

Last week he launched a missile from the Choe Hyon — North Korea’s largest warship. He called it “satisfactory progress.” The message was for every regime watching Iran burn — The Guardian. 1/

Iran chased a nuclear weapon for decades and never got one. The US bombed it anyway. Saddam had no nuclear weapon.

Gaddafi gave his up. Both are dead. Kim watched all three and built 50 warheads — with material for 40 more. 2/

Song Seong-jong, former South Korean defence official: “Kim must have thought Iran was attacked like that because it didn’t have nuclear weapons.”

That is the lesson Trump’s Iran war teaches every regime on earth. 3/

Read 10 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Mar 11

Peter Magyar, Hungarian opposition leader, a year ago: Hungary is Europe — not Russia or Asia.

Hungarians are proud of their nation, but also proud Europeans, and Hungary’s direction should remain firmly in Europe.

1/

Magyar: Since 2010, Orbán and Fidesz always need an enemy — Soros, Brussels, EU leaders.

Now they label opponents “foreign agents” to distract from Hungary’s real problems.

2/

Magyar: Ukraine accepted a ceasefire proposal backed by the U.S. Now the ball is in Putin’s court.

I call on Orbán and Fidesz to urge their ally in the Kremlin to accept it — because peace is the only chance for Europe and Ukraine to live normally.

3/

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Mar 11

Zelenskyy: I warned Trump about World War III. Russia already supports Iran with drones, missiles, and air defense.

The question is when troops appear — like the 10,000 North Korean soldiers now in Russia. The same could happen with Iran if Russia sends forces.

1/

Zelenskyy: Air raid sirens have become part of daily life in Ukraine.

Like defending against missiles and Shaheds, stopping Putin also requires quick steps — without them, you risk being destroyed.

2/

Zelenskyy: The Middle East has long tried to balance because of economic ties with Russia.

They understood Russia is the aggressor but were not very loud about it or strong on sanctions. Now they are beginning to understand what it means to live under attacks.

3/

Read 8 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Mar 10

Fukuyama: Trump likely hoped for a quick victory with Israel.

But within days Iran was launching missiles and drones across the region, making clear the conflict could last weeks. Instead of setting limited goals, Trump did the opposite and raised expectations.

1/

Fukuyama: Strategic bombing alone has rarely achieved political goals.

Two main exceptions were Japan’s surrender after Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and Kosovo, where NATO air strikes helped trigger a revolt against Milošević.

2/

Fukuyama: If Iran doesn’t capitulate, Trump faces three options: declare victory and leave a weakened regime in power, send in ground forces despite political risks, or expand air strikes to civilian infrastructure — which would mainly harm ordinary Iranians.

3X