5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/
6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…
Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/
7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/
8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/
9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/
Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.
Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/
There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/
So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.
Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine
16/
Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Kasparov: America is no longer the rock people knew. For dissidents it was a beacon; for everyone else, a force to reckon with.
Today all bets are off. The world built around US military, economic and political power is over, and America’s role will be reconsidered. 1/
Kasparov: NATO is dead. It is not just irrelevant; it refused to take part in the war it was built for.
Russia was the original threat, and when the real challenge to European security came from Russia, NATO waffled, ducked, and categorically refused to join. 2/
Kasparov: Europe is now building defense plans without America. Once Europeans erase old plans that included the US and build new ones, why bring America back?
America lost its reputation, and the geopolitical damage will be felt for years, maybe decades. 3/
Kellogg: Iran has two options. A deal written with disappearing ink, or military operations continue.
They use a mosaic defense, decentralizing command and control across 31 districts. We do not really know who is in control, so keep eliminating the Revolutionary Guards. 1/
Kellogg: I strongly advocate going after Kharg Island and putting a provisional government in charge.
There are Iranian opposition groups that could lead. Otherwise Tehran will keep doing what is in its playbook: talk, fight, talk again, and fight again. 2/
Kellogg: I do not see this ending soon unless we change the game plan and take mosaic warfare away from Iran’s advantage.
They will keep throwing mosquito boats and small fleets at us. One day they could get lucky, and we lose a tanker or a warship. 3/
Pompeo: Since October 7, the grip of Russia, Iran, and China on the Middle East has become much smaller.
Russia’s position in Damascus has collapsed, Hezbollah is badly diminished, Hamas is weaker, and Tehran is now in a much more difficult position. 1/
Pompeo: If we stop halfway, Iran gets another 30 to 50 years of extortion power.
This action was not only proper but necessary, because a nuclear-armed Iran with its conventional system intact would soon have made this kind of operation impossible. 2/
Pompeo: The IRGC is failing to meet payroll and bonuses, and the sanctions squeeze is choking the regime financially.
Systems like this can look incredibly strong until they suddenly crack. People said the same thing about the Soviet Union until the wall came down. 3/
Pompeo: For 40 years, our policy was to sell more stuff into China and hope China would become more like us. That was wrong.
Of all the hostile leaders I dealt with, the Chinese Communist Party is the one that can actually change the way we live. 1/
Pompeo: We are not going to fully decouple from China.
But anything tied to technology, security, pharmaceuticals, or biotech should be made in friendly countries, so we are never again left in a crisis without the things we actually need. 2/
Pompeo: The Chinese Communist Party is already inside the gates—in universities, labs, companies, and farmland deals.
My answer is reciprocity: if they would never let us do it in China, we should stop letting them do it here. 3/
“If Russia tried to seize Kyiv again, it would be the biggest bloodbath in world history. Two million drones would swarm over the tanks and burn them mercilessly.”
The Guardian: Madyar is Russia’s top assassination target after Zelenskyy. 1/
Robert “Madyar” Brovdi, commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces, leads the 414th brigade — the unit that has made Putin cancel tanks at this Saturday’s Victory Day parade for the first time in nearly 20 years. 2/
Brovdi acknowledges a “symbolic” attack on Red Square would generate headlines. But: “Why waste drones on the great wall? If you hit the energy sector or military — that’s the best strike, on the periphery.” 3/