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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 12, 2024 • 17 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X

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The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/

Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/

2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…

3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks. 5/

4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…

5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/

6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…

Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…

7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/

8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…

9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/

There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…

So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/

Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jan 27

Rutte: We’re coming up to the 4th anniversary of Russia's all-out war on Ukraine.

This is the harshest winter for Ukrainians in over a decade. It is -20°C in Kyiv. Russia is heavily targeting civilian infrastructure, leaving Ukrainians in freezing cold without heat or water. 1/

Rutte: Europe cannot provide enough of what Ukraine needs to defend itself today and to deter tomorrow.

Without flow of weaponry from the US, we cannot keep Ukraine in the fight. They provide interceptors to take down missiles going into Kyiv. 2/

Rutte: The time when we let the US carry much of the burden for our shared security is over. It's fair that Europe and Canada take more responsibility for their own security. And they do. 3/

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jan 26

Stoltenberg on Greenland: It’s serious when NATO's biggest ally, the US, is challenging the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Denmark and Greenland.

Especially because the core mission of NATO is to protect borders and sovereignty. 1/

Stoltenberg on progress in Davos: When there are disagreements among NATO allies, it’s good to find different platforms for talking.

There have been some contacts between Denmark and the US. That's a good thing. 2/

Stoltenberg on the existential moment for NATO: It's serious. We have made it clear that Greenland is part of the Kingdom of Denmark that has been recognized by Nordics and the US for many years.

There are challenges in the Arctic strategically. 3/

Read 8 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jan 26

Russia has just 3 Oreshnik missiles but is trying to scare Europe with a growing “arsenal”.

Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence (FISU): The system is a tool for intimidating Ukraine’s partners, but it's combat performance is dubious and relies on outdated technology — United 24. 1/

FISU: Moscow plans to start serial production of Oreshnik in 2026, aiming for at least five missiles per year. But its combat value is doubtful.

The system relies on Soviet-era designs, suffers frequent failures, and one launch reportedly flew without a proper warhead. 2/

The Oreshnik strike on Lviv earlier this month appears to have been psychological, not kinetic.

With only a handful of missiles available, Moscow is using them to amplify fear and political pressure on Europe. They compensate for limited stock with intimidation. 3X

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jan 26

Three Ukrainian officers carried out a solo assault in Lyman, and captured a Russian infiltration group — United24.

Officer “Fifteen”: “Orel” was wounded, but he didn't mention it when we were escorting the prisoners. He said he didn't want them to hear it and get any ideas. 1/

Three officers — Granat, Fifteen, and Orel, launched the operation after intel confirmed Russian troops inside the town.

Russians had set up a covert outpost in a basement, with antennas, radios, ammo, thermobaric grenades, and supplies — planning to hold until reinforcements arrived.

2/

The assault was coordinated with aerial reconnaissance. After a short firefight, the Russian soldiers surrendered.

No Ukrainian casualties reported.

3X

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jan 26

The Pentagon has unveiled a new US defense strategy: Russia will remain a persistent but manageable threat to NATO's eastern members for the near future.

Russia suffers from demographic and economic issues. Moscow is not in a position to make a bid for European hegemony. 1/

Russia still retains deep reservoirs of military and industrial power. Russia has also shown that it has the national resolve required to sustain a protracted war in its near abroad. 2/

Our NATO allies are strongly positioned to take primary responsibility for Europe's conventional defense, with critical but more limited US support. 3/

Read 11 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jan 26

Stubb: We need to reverse the narrative that Putin is winning the war in Ukraine. He is not.

He tried to take over Ukraine. He failed. He tried to stop NATO from expanding. Also failed. He tried to keep NATO’s defense spending down. It’s now at 5%. 1/

Stubb: My big fear is that the Russians are going to say “nyet” [no to a deal on Ukraine].

Ukraine, the US, and Europe are now on the same page, there is a clear some progress in negotiations. But it is still unclear what the Russians are going to do. 2/

Stubb: The US is able to project power, but Russia is not.

Put simply, what the US did in Venezuela in less than 24 hours is what Putin tried — and failed — to do in Kyiv four years ago.

One million died in casualties later, here we are. 3/