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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 12, 2024 • 17 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X

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The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/

Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/

2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…

3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks. 5/

4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…

5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/

6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…

Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…

7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/

8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…

9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/

There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…

So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/

Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Mar 20

Allied leaders stopped trying to find hidden logic behind Trump's actions.

They understand any contribution they make will count for nothing. Few days later, Trump will not even remember it happened — Anne Applebaum, The Atlantic. 1/

For 14 months American president tariffed allies, mocked their security concerns, repeatedly insulted them.

In Jan 2020: Trump told European officials "if Europe is under attack, we will never come to help you." In Feb 2025: told Zelenskyy he had no right to expect support. 2/

Trump called British "our once-great ally" after they refused to participate in initial assault on Iran.

When they discussed sending aircraft carriers to Persian Gulf, he ridiculed on social media: "We don't need people that join Wars after we've already won!" 3/

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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Mar 20

The new world war has already started. Ukraine and Iran are not two separate conflicts — they are Act One of the same war.

The war in Ukraine involves Russian soldiers, Chinese circuits, Iranian drones, and mercenaries from North Korea, writes Will Lloyd in New Statesman. 1/

Lloyd met author Oleksandr Mykhed in Kyiv. Mykhed wrote The Language of War — a landmark of conflict literature written from the perspective of a soldier defending his homeland. 2/

When Lloyd asked about peace, Mykhed hated the question. “People think this is the third act. You should think of this as the first act.” 3/

Read 11 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Mar 20

Bill Browder: Putin is definitely licking his lips, feeling like a real gift has come out of left field. The extra money he'll be getting will be about $10B.

That goes to pay for soldiers, ammunition, and whatever else he needs to carry on his war in Ukraine. 1/

Browder: At the same time the Ukrainians have gained territory because they've gotten so good with drone warfare.

Putin's not getting any more territory, he's hiding in a bunker.

It's not all one-sided, it's a complicated story where he's winning some, he's losing some. 2/

Browder: We can't be in a situation where a country [Hungary] with one or two percent of the population of Europe threatens the stability and safety of the entire Europe. Ukraine will get the money, but it will force Europe to restructure how big decisions like this get made. 3X

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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Mar 19

CIA Director Ratcliffe: “I don’t take Vladimir Putin at his word.”

Ratcliffe confirmed Iran is seeking intelligence from Russia and China to target US forces. Moscow may be providing data like satellite imagery, NYPost. 1/

Ratcliffe: “The Iranians are requesting intelligence assistance from Russia, from China, and from other adversaries of the US.”

Details on whether support is being provided were kept classified. 2/

Russia may be supplying targeting data, including satellite imagery and intelligence on US assets in the Middle East, to support Iranian operations. Moscow denies the claims. 3/

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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Mar 19

Keane: European weakness comes from decades of cutting defense spending to pay for domestic programs.

Russia saw those vulnerabilities and invaded Ukraine, while the US now needs allied support for operations — and expects Europe to step forward after initial hesitation. 1/

Keane: The US objective is to strip Iran of both defensive and offensive weapons, including its nuclear capability.

Progress has been systematic and accurate, with 5,000-pound bombs now used to hit deeply buried missile storage sites that cannot be destroyed from the surface. 2/

Keane: Israeli operations are targeting the organizations that sustain the regime, including militias and command structures

Leadership is being systematically removed, cracks are appearing and the goal is to set conditions for regime collapse by breaking the chain of control 3X

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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Mar 19

Kellogg: The Strait of Hormuz is passable now — we just need the courage to do it.

They are softening targets by taking out shore-to-ship missiles and batteries. If you take Kharg Island and secure the strait, you’re in great shape and can move ships through. 1/

Kellogg: The strait is about 25 miles wide, but shipping lanes are only two miles each way.

You clear mines and missile threats — Iran’s systems come largely from Russia and China — and run escorted ships through to reopen the route. 2/

Kellogg: War is a two-way street — you’re going to get hit.

The first runs will face drones or missiles, like the “Thunder runs” into Baghdad. You push through expecting fire — you just have to kill them all, and sooner or later they’re going to break. 3X