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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 12, 2024 • 17 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X

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The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/

Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/

2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…

3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks. 5/

4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…

5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/

6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…

Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…

7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/

8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…

9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/

There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…

So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/

Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jan 19

There is no good Russians on the screen of a thermal scope — Daria “Hilka”, commander of the Ukrainian all-women Typhoon drone unit.

Those who come onto our land with weapons are only temporarily alive.

Their thoughts or dreams don’t matter to me.

They must get out. 1/

Hilka: We’re seen as a curiosity because we’re a female crew.

We work the same way, with the same principles and equipment. There’s no open sexism — but the ‘they’re girls’ attitude exists.

We deal with it by doing the job and proving we’re at the same level as men.

2/

We organized an exhibition “Unissued Diplomas” in uni, to honor students killed by Russia.

Not long ago we were skipping classes and drinking coffee together. Now we’re honoring them - Oleksandra “Smakolyk” on one of the moments that motivated her to join the army. 3X

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jan 19

Sikorski: The way Putin has treated people on occupied territories is unbelievable.

Cruelties, stealing children, arresting at the slightest sign of resistance, russifying the culture.

Ukrainians understood that this is an existential war for them. 1/

Sikorski: When Putin continues to say Zelenskyy is the problem, he wants to create a political crisis in Ukraine, which would allow him to place someone in charge that would follow his wishes.
It's not just about territory, it's about the geopolitical orientation of Ukraine. 2/

Sikorski: Putin has sent us death squads. People have died [killed by Russian agents] in Germany, Britain, Qatar.

They recruit one-time agents on social media, pay them to photograph a target and then to set fire to it. All over Europe, we've had a number of such incidents. 3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jan 19

Military historian Phillips O’Brien: Ukraine understands this war will not be won by a large tank counteroffensive. That kind of warfare is over.

The battlefield no longer works that way. Ukraine’s aim is to inflict heavy losses on Russia while keeping its own losses down. 1/

O’Brien: Ukraine’s way of taking the war to Russia is by hitting the Russian economy with long-range strikes, instead of smashing against Russian forces on the front line.

Kyiv sees the Russian economy as the weak point of the war machine. 2/

O’Brien: The Ukrainians are often more adaptive, but Russia copies those adaptations and builds them in large numbers.

One of the benefits Ukrainians have is a society with young, technologically conversant people like Fedorov, willing to take risks. 3X

Read 4 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jan 19

Ukraine’s new Defense Minister Fedorov is not a crony or an old Soviet insider tainted by corruption - Military historian Phillips O’Brien.

O’Brien: He is a different kind of politician — a Maidan-generation Ukraine. He also is technologically fluent. 1/

O’Brien: Fedorov has overseen drone production, one of the most dynamic parts of Ukraine’s economy.

He is not stuck in an old Soviet mindset. He understands the technological battlefield and how important it is to win the adaptation race. 2/

O’Brien: Fedorov gets things done. He’s not hidebound. He’s not going to be worried about offending different people or taking time to do something.

He’s going to get it done. He seems to be very clear-eyed. 3/

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jan 19

John Bolton: The damage that Trump is doing to America's reputation is just impossible to state.

This is so extraordinary to threaten the invasion of a NATO ally, to seize territory from a democracy. The impact in Europe, you cannot calculate how bad this is for us. 1/

Bolton: There is nothing that we need in terms of security in Greenland that's not amply provided in a 1951 treaty with Denmark called the Defense of Greenland Treaty.

I think diplomats between the two countries and with other NATO allies could resolve this very quickly. 2/

Bolton: Russia and China are a threat in the Arctic — we’ve known that for decades. The U.S. has been just as lax as other NATO allies in responding.

But we’ll do whatever it takes to defend our interests in Greenland, Northern Canada and Alaska — that’s why alliances exist. 3/

Read 9 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jan 19

Fukuyama: Trump is a bully who wants to dominate everyone around him. Trying to placate him with concessions is a fool’s errand. He despises weakness.

As an American, I say to my European friends: do not back down. Appeasing Trump with flattery has failed and must stop. 1/

Fukuyama: Europeans think conceding Greenland will mollify Trump. It won’t. He will come back for more later. Europe says it still depends on the U.S. to deal with Russia.

But Trump’s America has abandoned Ukraine and declared Europe secondary to the Western Hemisphere. 2/

Fukuyama: Countries that stood up to Trump’s threats — Brazil, India, China — have done well. They boosted domestic support, and China forced the U.S. to back down.

Trump is not the United States: most Americans are dismayed by his policies and likely to vote against him. 3X