5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/
6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…
Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/
7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/
8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/
9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/
Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.
Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/
There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/
So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.
Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine
16/
Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X
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US senators move to sanction Hungary over blocking Ukraine aid.
A bipartisan bill from Shaheen and Tillis would target Hungarian officials with asset freezes and visa bans for obstructing support to Kyiv and buying Russian energy — as Orbán holds up a €90B EU loan, FT. 1/
The “Block Putin Act” is led by Dem. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and Rep. Sen. Thom Tillis.
It would force Trump to sanction officials tied to Russian oil and gas deals and efforts to block Ukraine support. 2/
The trigger is Budapest’s veto. Orbán is blocking a €90B EU loan to Ukraine ahead of elections where polls show his party trailing by 23 points against Tisza. 3/
Iran may be winning the war despite losing battles.
Tehran's goal is to show US and Israel cost of confronting Iran is militarily, economically and politically unsustainable. Strategy is survive and exhaust — Foreign Affairs. 1/
Iran has been preparing for this war for nearly 40 years.
Tehran decentralized command, distributed political authority across regional nodes and cultivated multiple successors at every IRGC level. This enabled regime to withstand assassination of many high-ranking leaders. 2/
US and Israel's decapitation campaign created unexpected problem: replacement commanders are more dangerous.
Younger, fought Americans in Iraq and Israelis in Lebanon and Syria. They don't share older generation's caution who remembered catastrophic Iran-Iraq War costs. 3/
Putin is making $760M a day from oil as the Iran war drives prices higher.
Russia’s oil and gas revenues are set to double this month — from $12B to nearly $24B — boosted by price spikes and US sanctions waivers, Telegraph and KSE Institute. 1/
Even if the war ends soon, Russia’s energy revenues are projected at $218.5B this year. That’s +63% vs pre-war expectations — an $84B windfall under an optimistic scenario. 2/
If the conflict lasts 6 months, revenues could reach $386.5B. That’s +188% vs baseline projections — turning a regional war into a massive cash surge for Moscow. 3/
The Pentagon prepares “final blow” options for Iran.
Plans include ground invasions, seizure of key islands, and a massive bombing campaign if talks fail and Hormuz remains blocked, Axios. 1/
US officials outlined 4 main scenarios.
Seizing Kharg Island (Iran’s main oil hub), Larak (controls Hormuz), Abu Musa and nearby islands, or intercepting Iranian oil shipments in the strait. 2/
Plans also include strikes or raids on nuclear sites.
Options range from ground operations to secure enriched uranium to large-scale airstrikes to destroy facilities. 3/
Shapiro: The only thing Iran can do at this point is harass people.
They can harass their neighbors with occasional missile and drone strikes.
They can bother some shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. 1/
Shapiro: There are two types of victory, political victory and actual victory.
We may already have an actual victory. If Iran ends up falling, that victory will belong to President Trump because we will have weakened the foundations of the Iranian regime. 2/
Shapiro: On the one hand, Iran winning would just be them surviving. That survival amounts to not losing.
But is not losing really victory for Iran? It might be for the moment, but not for long, because Iran would remain isolated and devoid of basic resources. 3/
Rutte: Ukraine's NATO membership is not on the cards for now. When the war stops, Putin must know the reaction will be devastating if he tries again.
In Paris in January, a coalition of the willing agreed on what Ukraine's security guarantees should look like. 1/
Rutte: Critical US support for Ukraine, paid for by allies through PURL, continues to flow — and this is crucial. Intelligence the US shares with Ukraine is essential.
So is defense industrial output from US stockpiles — Patriot interceptors and other vital military gear. 2/
Rutte: Iran's nuclear and missile capability is potentially an existential threat to Israel and a threat to Europe. Iran is an exporter of chaos to the region and to the world. Let's not be naive.
The US is degrading that capability. And yes, I applaud it. 3/