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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 12, 2024 • 17 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X

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The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/

Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/

2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…

3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks. 5/

4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…

5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/

6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…

Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…

7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/

8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…

9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/

There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…

So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/

Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 16

Andrey Kurkov, Ukrainian writer: Nobody’s winning in Russia-Ukraine war.

Trump wants to be a winner and look like a peacemaker, but he’s a business dealer. He wants a deal with Russia, and Ukraine is an obstacle to restarting joint oil projects and profits. 1/

Kurkov: I feel like I spent already half of my life in war. Now it became part of daily life and lottery. You never know who will be killed tomorrow by Russians.

You just live one day at a time, hoping to survive till the next year, but with no guarantee. 2/

Kurkov: This winter became the main enemy — it allied with Russia.

Not sleeping because of explosions is one thing, not sleeping because of the cold is another. With no heating, you go to bed with plastic bottles filled with boiled water. It isn’t good for your health. 3/

Read 8 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 16

Bolton: It was a mistake not pressing earlier to admit Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova to NATO. We absorbed eastern Europe for one reason — space.

Every country pushed the front line closer. We failed to close the gap and Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus were left in a gray zone. 1/

Bolton: The French and the Germans objected Ukraine and Georgia in NATO. Ukraine is an incredibly rich powerful country striving to be Western, rejecting the nationalism of Putin.

It was closely related to our vital interest in the peace and stability of other NATO members. 2/

Bolton: We don't have a national security decision-making process anymore. Trump has proposed a $500 billion increase in the defense budget. Great, but we are behind.

Communist China is becoming a peer nuclear competitor. In a tripolar nuclear world, none of treaties work. 3X

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 16

A mine tore off his foot. He tightened a tourniquet and crawled six hours under FPV drones to stay alive.

This is “Keks,” a fighter from Ukraine’s 144th Special Operations Center. — Ukrainska Pravda 1/

At 05:00 he moved out with three comrades. High grass covered the trail. He stepped on a Soviet-designed “petal” mine.

The blast shredded his foot. He tried to run, collapsed twice, then dragged himself to a tree for cover. 2/

A teammate on his first combat mission tightened the tourniquet.

Keks handed over his machine gun, gave orders, and told the group to move ahead while he crawled behind them. FPVs hunted overhead. Mortars struck nearby. 3/

Read 11 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 16

Estonia FM Tsahkna: The story “Estonia is one of the most vulnerable countries” is fake news. We prepare for a Russian probable invasion and the deterrence is really strong. NATO is stronger than ever. If Russia is coming to our territories, we will bring the war to Russia. 1/

Tsahkna: For 20 years we have been saying Europe must do more and have more self-confidence. Our relation with US is very strong but not anymore unconditional. Let’s use this pressure to wake up Europe. The new vision must be let’s unite Europe. 2/

Tsahkna: There was no support for idea to start talking with Kremlin on Thursday informal meeting of European leaders. We must put more pressure on Russia not to talk with them. 3/

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 16

Volker: We need more Europe in NATO, but the US doesn’t go to zero.

Europe is preparing a ‘coalition of the willing’ to deploy to Ukraine after a ceasefire. They’re reviewing forces and equipment to be more capable.

But they still see the alliance with the US as essential.

1/

Volker: Trump got Ukraine to accept a ceasefire idea, aligned US-Ukraine economically, and pushed Europe to step up.

But he hasn’t pressured Putin.

Without secondary sanctions and action against the shadow fleet, Moscow has no reason to stop.

2/

Volker: Zelenskyy’s move to allow drone exports is smart.

Yes, it brings money to Ukraine. But more importantly, the West needs Ukrainian know-how.

We build high-end, expensive weapons. Ukrainians build high-tech, effective, low-cost ones — and know how to use them.

3X

Read 4 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 16

Ex-Nato Chief Stoltenberg: We might have prevented the full-scale invasion in 2022 — if we had started helping Ukraine in 2014.

If we had armed and trained Ukraine back then, Ukrainians would control more of their territory today.

1/

Stoltenberg: My first decision as finance minister was to triple Norway’s military support to Ukraine.

We provide €7.3 billion a year. We are fewer than six million people.

No country gives more per capita or as a share of GDP. That’s 1.3% of GDP, higher than most allies.

2/

Stoltenberg: In 2025, Russia captured less than 1% of Ukrainian territory, about 0.8%.

For that, they paid around 1,000 killed and seriously wounded every single day.

Their economy is in deep trouble. Finland and Sweden joined NATO.
If we keep up support, Ukraine can prevail
3X