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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 12, 2024 • 17 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X

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The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/

Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/

2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…

3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks. 5/

4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…

5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/

6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…

Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…

7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/

8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…

9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/

There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…

So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/

Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

May 1

Zelenskyy approved new drone strikes on Russia.

Zelenskyy: Ukrainian drones — our long-range sanctions.

1,500 km range is no longer news. Russia’s oil sector, military logistics, production are legitimate targets.

If Russia doesn't want diplomacy, it must be imposed on it. 1/

Zelenskyy: We have Russian documents showing that Russia considers our arms exports a specific threat to itself.

Political leadership of Russia is set to disrupt Ukraine’s access to such new investments.

We will counter this. 2/

Zelenskyy: Russia has no goodwill. It must be forced to reduce aggression. And let them later call that their “gestures of goodwill.”

Belarus must not be drawn into the war. There must be no operations against other European countries. 3X

Read 4 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

May 1

Russia now calls Leningrad Oblast a “front-line region” after Ukrainian strikes reached ~1,000 km from the border.

Governor Drozdenko says oil terminals and ports became primary targets, hitting core infrastructure behind the front, The Kyiv Independent. 1/

Ust-Luga and Primorsk — Russia’s main Baltic oil ports — handle 60M tons annually and generate major budget revenues, now struck since March 22. 2/

Ukraine's long-range strikes hit fuel tanks, piers, and tankers far from the battlefield. 343 drones were intercepted in the region in just the first 3 months of 2026. 3/

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

May 1

AI will soon decide who dies on the battlefield. In 2002 the US MQ-1 Predator drone carried out one of the first targeted strikes in Afghanistan. In 2026 Ukrainian ground robots capture Russian soldiers without a single human soldier present — Al Jazeera. 1/

In January Ukrainian defense company DevDroid released footage of three Russian soldiers surrendering to a ground robot armed with a machinegun. In April Zelenskyy confirmed: for the first time in the war, a position was captured exclusively by unmanned platforms. 2/

Ground robotic systems conducted over 22,000 missions on the front in three months. Some brigades report that up to 70% of front-line supplies are now delivered by robots. These machines transport ammunition, food and medical supplies and evacuate wounded troops. 3/

Read 11 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

May 1

"Ukraine's lack of Western weapons forced it to invent a different kind of warfare — civilian technology and business practices brought directly into combat.

NATO is now studying this." — Gen. Kaspars Pudāns, commander of the Latvian Armed Forces for Kyiv Post. 1/

Pudāns: "What has been surprising is the ability of Ukrainian soldiers and leaders at all levels to innovate and develop new approaches so quickly.

This was partly driven by a lack of support from the West, which forced Ukraine to adapt by using civilian technologies. 2/

Pudāns: "What is surprising is how quickly these ideas were implemented in practice and delivered results. It was practical and effective.

This is something we will definitely learn from, particularly the role of industry and its ability to deliver new solutions." 3/

Read 9 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

May 1

Budanov: “You have one chance to stay alive — come out into the open and surrender. If you don’t decide in five minutes, I will order an assault.”

That’s how he spoke to Russian border guards during a raid inside Russia in summer 2023. 5 minutes later, they surrendered, Babel.1/

Artan unit commander Viktor Torkotiuk: the operation was planned two months in advance.

They gathered human intel, ran drone reconnaissance, sent teams deep inside to map routes. Budanov personally adjusted the final plan. Goal: disrupt Russia’s planned offensive on Kharkiv. 2/

Ukrainian units advanced tens of kilometers into Belgorod region, secured Nova Tavolzhanka, and began destroying Russian troops and equipment.

Russia threw wave after wave of assaults — and failed to push them out. 3/

Read 8 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

May 1

NATO Admiral Dragone: The next war won’t look like today’s in Ukraine. We must balance traditional weapons with new systems — drones, cyber, and cognitive warfare.

Russia alone spends about $2B a year on disinformation.

1/

Dragone: The outcome of Russia-Ukraine war is unlikely to be decided only on the battlefield. Russia’s economy will play a key role.

Sanctions and economic pressure should be restored and strengthened once the Gulf conflict ends.

2/

Dragone: The battlefield is at a stalemate — no major territorial gains.

Russia is taking heavy losses, while Ukraine is holding the line. It’s a “frozen” phase, but the key point is that Ukraine maintains its positions.

3/