Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Apr 12, 2024 17 tweets 6 min read Read on X
The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/
Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/ Image
2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…
3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks.  5/ Image
4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…
Image
5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/
6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…
Image
Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…
Image
7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/
8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…
Image
9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/
There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…
Image
So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/
Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

Feb 28
Russia weighs halting peace talks unless Ukraine cedes territory, Bloomberg.

If Kyiv refuses concessions on Donetsk, Moscow is prepared to exit negotiations.

Next week’s negotiations will determine whether a Zelenskyy-Trump-Putin summit happens — or talks collapse. 1/ Image
Russia is ready to sign a draft memorandum if Ukraine withdraws from the eastern Donetsk region.

That would be followed by a Zelenskyy-Trump-Putin summit and a mutual pullback of forces. 2/
Zelenskyy rejects withdrawing from fortified areas of Donetsk and refuses to recognize any occupied territory.

Kyiv proposes a ceasefire along current frontlines, diplomatic restoration of land, and US-European security guarantees. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Feb 28
‘If Putin is ready for a trilateral meeting, we have months to try to finish the war. If not, after the U.S. elections it will be harder — Washington will focus on domestic issues.’

Zelenskyy on the narrowing window for talks.

1/
Zelenskyy: Russians know I won’t go to Moscow. I’m not playing games about ending the war.

I’m ready to meet and speak — but not on Russian or Belarusian soil. Belarus is Russian ally in this aggression.

2/
Zelenskyy: Russia tries to divide our free society. At home, they’ve shut everything down — people don’t even know their losses.

Body counts won’t shake them. Only the economy will. When Russians feel poorer each day, they’ll start asking the Kremlin questions.

3X
Read 4 tweets
Feb 28
Trump: To Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, military, and police, I say tonight: you must lay down your weapons and have complete immunity.

Or face certain death. 1/
Trump: We are going to destroy Iranian missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground.

It will be totally, again, obliterated. We’re going to annihilate their Navy. 2/
Trump: To the great, proud people of Iran, I say: don’t leave your home. It’s very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere.

When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours. This will be, probably, your only chance for generations. 3X
Read 4 tweets
Feb 27
Russia conducting sabotage campaign across Europe: arson, parcel bombs, disrupting air traffic, damaging undersea cables.

Hybrid attacks rose from 13 in 2023 to 44 in 2024. But Putin's attempts to intimidate Europe backfired, triggering strong pushback — Washington Post. 1/ Image
MI6 chief Blaise Metreweli: "Russia is testing us in gray zone with tactics just below threshold of war. Drones buzzing airports and bases, state-sponsored arson and sabotage.

Attempts to bully, fearmonger and manipulate." 2/
Britain imposed nearly 300 new sanctions on people and companies aiding Russia's war effort.

Restrictions on 50 ships in shadow fleet transporting Russian oil and gas, bans on 175 companies linked with Azerbaijani oligarch, sanctions on 18 companies selling military products. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Feb 27
“In school I used to send drawings to soldiers — now they send them to me,” says Dmytro Kovalchuk, who joined the AFU at 18.

Hromadske tells the story of Dmytro, 19, and Yaroslav Kravchuk, 50. They serve in the same 95th Air Assault Brigade and fight side by side. 1/ Image
On February 24, 2022, 50-year-old Yaroslav Kravchuk, director and wrestling coach at a youth sports school in Zhytomyr, woke up at 5 a.m. to a call from a comrade: “It’s started.” 2/ Image
By 8:30 a.m. he was at the enlistment office. That evening he joined the 2nd Battalion of the 95th Air Assault Brigade. His first task: prepare for a possible Russian airborne landing at a military airfield. 3/
Read 12 tweets
Feb 27
Kyslytsya: Resolving biggest problems is impossible without a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin. Even better, if it were a trilateral meeting with the participation of Trump.

This year, real negotiations of the three parties took place twice in Abu Dhabi and in Geneva. 1/
Kyslytsya: When I was a representative in New York, one of the topics that worried some of our Western partners was how to keep me as the permanent representative to the UN in the event of the occupation of Ukraine. Some of our partners did not believe we’ll endure. 2/
Kyslytsya: There are layers of mythology surrounding the Budapest Memorandum.

The English text does not contain the word "guarantees". It speaks of assurances, commitments, obligations.

The official Ukrainian text is called guarantees. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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