Post

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
Click again on or Share Via icon
Click on Copy Link to Tweet
Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
More info at Twitter Help

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 12, 2024 • 17 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X

Scrolly

The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/

Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/

2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…

3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks. 5/

4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…

5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/

6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…

Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…

7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/

8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…

9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/

There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…

So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/

Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 5

Kyrylo Veres, commander of Ukraine’s K2 unmanned systems brigade: Reaching 50,000 confirmed enemy losses per month is realistic.

Unconfirmed can become near 80,000.

When you add unverified losses from infantry, and artillery, the real number is much higher.

1/

Kyrylo Veres: In the army, every specialist has a cost. As cynical as it sounds.

Training an FPV drone pilot costs about 300 times more than training an infantryman.

2/

Kyrylo Veres: If there’s another breakthrough toward Kyiv, many fighters will want to leave to defend their homes. Then it will collapse on both fronts.

I know this personally — in 2022, when my home near Kyiv was occupied, I begged my brigade commander to let me go.

3/

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 5

Zelenskyy: I hear signals about recognizing occupied Ukrainian territories as Russian to end the war.

That would change nothing. Not everyone would accept it, and only Ukraine signs for Ukraine. Our territories remain ours.

1/

Zelenskyy: Ukraine’s security guarantees will rest on preserving an 800,000-strong army and, after the war or a ceasefire, transitioning it from a mobilized force to a professional contract army.

2X

Source:

Read 4 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 5

Vance: We will work with Russia and China to reduce the amount of nuclear weapons in the world.

When Trump draws the “red line”, like that Iran can’t have nuclear weapons, he always keeps his options open, and only uses military strength when there are no options left.

1/

Vance: If Russia or China controlled Greenland, America’s missile defense wouldn’t work.

In a missile attack on the U.S., we simply couldn’t defend ourselves.

2/

Vance: We disagree a lot with Russia, but there may be limited areas of cooperation.

Putin should not have invaded Ukraine, and we will work to end the war. But U.S. policy isn’t about simple friends and enemies.

3X

Read 4 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 5

Zelenskyy: It will take the Russians at least two years to capture Donbas, but they won't last that long.

It will cost them another 800,000 lives.

If we freeze the front line, that would be a significant concession on our part.

1/

Zelenskyy: Putin only fears Donald Trump, so Trump won’t accept all Russian conditions.

Trump knows that he has leverage over Russia through the economy, sanctions and arms supplies.

We are grateful to the Europeans. They have helped us a lot. But Putin is not afraid of them.2/

Zelenskyy: If we lose the war, we will become part of Russia.

We will simply lose our country's independence.

But I am confident that this will not happen.

3X

Read 4 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 5

The Kremlin directly runs cyberattacks against the West.

Russia’s military intelligence (GRU) created, funded, and directed CyberArmyofRussia_Reborn, which attacked US and European critical infrastructure. One of the member is being tried in US court — Kyiv Independent. 1/

In January 2024, Russian hackers remotely sabotaged the water system of Muleshoe, Texas.

They disabled sensors so tanks overflowed. The attackers later posted control-room footage on Telegram, openly claiming responsibility. 2/

The US Justice Department says CARR operated under GRU command.

A GRU officer selected targets, paid for hacking services, and coordinated operations. “Hacktivism” served as cover for state-run cyber operations. 3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 4

Kellogg: The longer the days go by, the better it is for Ukraine than it is for Russia. This war has gone on for four years.

Russia's only been able to take 1% more land. Once you get through the winter, I think it’s better for Ukraine than for Russia. 1/

Kellogg: Putin’s losses have been so severe, economic and personal, that he’s trying to find a way out of this. When he says he’s winning, I don’t think he’s winning this war. Historically, they will find they have failed. Ukrainians have done very well. 2/

Kellogg: In World War II with the Baltic states, the Welles Doctrine recognized no land conquered through aggression. I think the same thing is going to happen here. You don’t recognize it legally, and over time you hope that it changes. 3/