Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Apr 12, 2024 17 tweets 6 min read Read on X
The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/
Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/ Image
2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…
3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks.  5/ Image
4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…
Image
5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/
6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…
Image
Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…
Image
7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/
8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…
Image
9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/
There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…
Image
So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/
Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

Feb 28
Trump: To Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, military, and police, I say tonight: you must lay down your weapons and have complete immunity.

Or face certain death. 1/
Trump: We are going to destroy Iranian missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground.

It will be totally, again, obliterated. We’re going to annihilate their Navy. 2/
Trump: To the great, proud people of Iran, I say: don’t leave your home. It’s very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere.

When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours. This will be, probably, your only chance for generations. 3X
Read 4 tweets
Feb 27
Russia conducting sabotage campaign across Europe: arson, parcel bombs, disrupting air traffic, damaging undersea cables.

Hybrid attacks rose from 13 in 2023 to 44 in 2024. But Putin's attempts to intimidate Europe backfired, triggering strong pushback — Washington Post. 1/ Image
MI6 chief Blaise Metreweli: "Russia is testing us in gray zone with tactics just below threshold of war. Drones buzzing airports and bases, state-sponsored arson and sabotage.

Attempts to bully, fearmonger and manipulate." 2/
Britain imposed nearly 300 new sanctions on people and companies aiding Russia's war effort.

Restrictions on 50 ships in shadow fleet transporting Russian oil and gas, bans on 175 companies linked with Azerbaijani oligarch, sanctions on 18 companies selling military products. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Feb 27
“In school I used to send drawings to soldiers — now they send them to me,” says Dmytro Kovalchuk, who joined the AFU at 18.

Hromadske tells the story of Dmytro, 19, and Yaroslav Kravchuk, 50. They serve in the same 95th Air Assault Brigade and fight side by side. 1/ Image
On February 24, 2022, 50-year-old Yaroslav Kravchuk, director and wrestling coach at a youth sports school in Zhytomyr, woke up at 5 a.m. to a call from a comrade: “It’s started.” 2/ Image
By 8:30 a.m. he was at the enlistment office. That evening he joined the 2nd Battalion of the 95th Air Assault Brigade. His first task: prepare for a possible Russian airborne landing at a military airfield. 3/
Read 12 tweets
Feb 27
Kyslytsya: Resolving biggest problems is impossible without a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin. Even better, if it were a trilateral meeting with the participation of Trump.

This year, real negotiations of the three parties took place twice in Abu Dhabi and in Geneva. 1/
Kyslytsya: When I was a representative in New York, one of the topics that worried some of our Western partners was how to keep me as the permanent representative to the UN in the event of the occupation of Ukraine. Some of our partners did not believe we’ll endure. 2/
Kyslytsya: There are layers of mythology surrounding the Budapest Memorandum.

The English text does not contain the word "guarantees". It speaks of assurances, commitments, obligations.

The official Ukrainian text is called guarantees. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Feb 27
A Ukrainian child watched a Russian soldier shoot his grandfather at a checkpoint while fleeing Volnovakha in 2022. He saw it through a car window fogged by his own breath

Some saw their homes turn to rubble. Others fall asleep to sirens and missiles overhead – The Telegraph. 1/ Image
In a foster home in central Ukraine, nine children wake each night to air raid sirens. Alina, 3, hides under a blanket.

Ivan, 2, cries. Anatoly, 10, sits alone. Mishka, 16, checks online chats to see whether Shahed drones, ballistic missiles or artillery are flying overhead. 2/
Artem, 11, Zhenya, 10, and Maria, 7, lost most of their hearing after adults abandoned them at the start of the war and insects burrowed into their ears.

A doctor in Kropyvnytskyi found the cause. The damage disrupted how they learn to speak, and they now struggle to talk. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Feb 27
McFaul: Putin would be really happy to go back to the 18-18th century. No institutions, no roles, just spheres of influence, great powers getting together and carving up the world. That world leads to a lot of chaos, a lot of conflict, and a lot of war. 1/
McFaul: US have to share the burden too when it comes to Ukraine. We can't just assume that the Europeans are going to do it on their own. I'm very uncomfortable with the current fact that American companies are now profiting from the war in Ukraine. It’s immoral. 2/
McFaul: We want to make the invasion of the island of Taiwan as costly as we can.

Yet, make crystal clear to Beijing that the US is not going to recognize Taiwan as an independent country. I just think that those kinds of declarations are not in the interest of stability. 3X
Read 5 tweets

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