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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 12, 2024 • 17 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X

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The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/

Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/

2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…

3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks. 5/

4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…

5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/

6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…

Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…

7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/

8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…

9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/

There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…

So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/

Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 30

Macron: We are organizing the coalition of the willing for security guarantees in Ukraine under Franco-British command.

Europeans must take more responsibility for their own defense, keep NATO interoperability, and be able to act together. 1/

Macron: This exercise showed that Europeans can credibly deploy an operation of this scale together, with France as a framework nation.

That is a clear message to our Ukrainian partners and to every European army that knows it can join such missions. 2/

Macron: In February 2022, few experts believed Ukraine would resist.

But Ukrainians held, innovated, and defended their land step by step through force of soul. No equipment will do that in your place. In the end, victory still rests on people. 3X

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 30

Ukraine wants to intercept 95% of Russia's long-range drones.

Borys, commander, 420th Unmanned Systems battalion: "Even if you use 50 drones to shoot down one Shahed, it's worth it. One Shahed can fly in and destroy something far more valuable" — Reuters. 1/

1,000 of 6,500 Russian long-range drones got through last month — Ukrainian air force data.

The hits stripped heating and lighting from millions and gutted energy facilities, military sites, and cities. 2/

In Feb, Defense Minister Fedorov set a 95% interception target. The rate that month: just over 85%.

This month it hit 90%, Fedorov told Reuters. With Russia's land push stalled, he says air defense is vital to surviving another year of war. 3/

Read 11 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 30

Former Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief, Zaluzhnyi: The old world order didn't enter turbulence. It no longer exists

Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014 and 2022, Venezuela and now the Middle East all show the same thing: rules exist on paper, but there is no force to enforce them. 1/

Zaluzhnyi: If any world order still exists, it is the order of the strong.

America is now telling Europe it is no longer the guarantor of European security and that Europe’s security is now in Europe’s own hands. That alone shows the old order is over. 2/

Zaluzhnyi: Whether this is already a third world war, historians will decide later.

But as witnesses, we can see an unfinished war in Ukraine, an unfinished war in the Middle East, and no mechanism able to prevent a third, fourth, or fifth war from breaking out. 3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 30

Yelizarov, founder of drone battalion that destroyed $14B worth of Russian equipment: Risk of tactical nuclear use is real. Partners must define a response in advance.

If Ukraine raises efficiency and enemy losses, it could demoralize Russia and enable a counteroffensive.

1/

Yelizarov: Russia faces manpower shortages. Ukraine could inflict more losses, but targets are limited.

Current Russian losses are about 30–35k per month. If Russia pushes harder, losses rise; if it slows down, they stay around that level.

2/

Yelizarov: Ukraine lost drone advantage. In 2022–23 we stopped Russia and stabilized the front, but didn’t retake territory.

With faster adaptation, we could have. That window is gone.

3X

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 30

Apolitical Russians are starting to feel the war.

Influencer Victoria Bonya[13m followers] urged Putin to “face the truth”: floods in Dagestan, oil spills on the Black Sea coast, internet blackouts and cattle culls in Siberia.

Five days later: 30 million views, The Economist.1/

Bonya is not an opposition politician or activist. She lives near Monaco and sells vegan cosmetics and clothing.

But she addressed Putin: "People are afraid of you, bloggers are afraid, artists are afraid, governors are afraid. But people should not be afraid of their president. I am not afraid." 2/

Her video is not a call to revolutio, but the reaction to it is more telling than its content. Gennady Zyuganov, leader of the Communist Party, told deputies that the video should be taken seriously if the Kremlin wants to avoid another Bolshevik revolution. 3/

Read 10 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 30

Keane: Three weeks into a ceasefire, a deal acceptable to Trump still looks far away.

The reason is simple: the Iranians do not really want a deal. They are playing for time, betting political and economic pressure on Trump will force concessions or make him walk away. 1/

Keane: Keep the blockade, but go back to military operations. When the ceasefire began, about two weeks of assigned objectives still remained.

Central Command has doubled its capability, Israel has replenished munitions, and the next campaign can be far more aggressive. 2/

Keane: Some will argue the blockade alone can break Tehran. Trump rejects that. The regime’s only objective is to survive and stay in power.

Economic collapse, blackouts, gas lines, civilian suffering — none of that will make it give in. That is exactly who they are. 3/