Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Apr 12, 2024 17 tweets 6 min read Read on X
The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/
Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/ Image
2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…
3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks.  5/ Image
4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…
Image
5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/
6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…
Image
Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…
Image
7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/
8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…
Image
9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/
There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…
Image
So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/
Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

Apr 16
CENTCOM com. Brad Cooper: We launched own one way drones into Iran, originally Iranian designed. We took the guts out, put a "made American" stamp on them and fired them back. Very effective.

We are employing AI to sift through information to help us make decisions faster. 1/
Cooper: We have collected dozens, if not hundreds, of lessons learned. The joint force is taking them and very tactically applying them right now.

Great teams are always adjusting, and that's what we're doing right now. 2X
Read 4 tweets
Apr 16
Zelenskyy: Russia does not want only Ukraine. It has openly said it wants to control all its neighbors and decide what security in Europe should look like.

Russia has carried these war ideas as far as Syria and Africa. This is a truly global threat. 1/
Zelenskyy: At the core of Russia’s war is the false claim that Ukraine does not exist and is merely part of Russia.

Putin knows exactly what he is doing and who he resembles. He is rightly compared to the Nazis. He has the same expansionist ambitions. 2/
Zelenskyy: Air defense remains crucial. Pressure on Russia must continue through sanctions and restrictions, but Russian war criminals must also face justice.

The tribunal for Russia’s aggression must move forward. Do not let Russia go unpunished. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Apr 16
On April 13, 2022 a Neptune operator picked up a target on radar 120 km away. He had minutes to decide: fire or not. Nobody could confirm the target. Bayraktars refused to fly. He pressed launch. UP tells the story of how Ukraine sank the cruiser Moskva four years ago. 1/ Image
That day heavy rain clouds hung just a few kilometers above the Black Sea. Aircraft, Bayraktars, and optical satellites were all useless. 2/
The Neptune's standard radar could see targets only up to 18 km. The Moskva knew this and closed to within 120 km of the Ukrainian coast, certain it was untouchable. 3/
Read 15 tweets
Apr 16
Congress can protect Ukraine from Trump’s volatility — the same way it protected Taiwan in 1979 and forced Clinton’s hand on Bosnia in 1995.

A bipartisan Ukraine Relations Act could do the same today, write Brendan Simms and Edward Siddl in FA. 1/ Image
The problem: Trump has taken contradictory positions.

In September 2025 he said Ukraine should “get their land back” and called Russia “a paper tiger.” Two months later he presented a 28-point peace plan widely seen as favorable to Russia. 2/
Trump said Ukraine would “lose in a short period of time” if it didn’t agree to the plan.

Since then he has pushed to end the war as quickly as possible — even if that means a bad deal for Ukraine. 3/
Read 12 tweets
Apr 16
Pistorius: The €90 billion Ukraine loan will be provided over two years. After elections in Hungary I expect the EU blockade to lift soon.

This money enables Ukraine to procure military equipment sustainably — and rebuild the infrastructure Russia destroyed.

1/
Pistorius: Our support package includes hundreds of Patriot guided missiles, delivered steadily over four years.

Additional launchers for IRIS-T systems. Funding for deep strike drones manufactured in Ukraine.

And we will jointly develop medium and deep strike drones.

2/
Pistorius: A quick end to the Hormuz blockade are in our fundamental interest. Unfortunately, it is not in sight.

Russia benefits from the surge in oil prices. Moscow uses this money to fund its terror against Ukraine.

Russia has never taken the peace talks seriously.

3X
Read 4 tweets
Apr 15
Keane: The Iranians shut down the Strait of Hormuz and got a ceasefire. The war stopped. That's what they wanted, because we are pounding the daylights out of them.

We are shutting down Iran's source of income. Economic warfare. The administration has more leverage. 1/
Keane: The Iranians made two miscalculations. They went into negotiations thinking the administration will make concessions because of pressure. Wrong.

We stood our ground. The president says I want everything. Iran had to go home with their tail between their legs. 2/
Keane: This is phase one. The blockade, taking revenue away from them, make certain no ships go in or out dealing with Iranian oil.

My judgment is it probably won't open up. That brings the operation to open up the straits: clear it, get the mines out, make it secure. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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