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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 12, 2024 • 17 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X

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The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/

Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/

2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…

3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks. 5/

4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…

5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/

6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…

Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…

7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/

8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…

9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/

There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…

So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/

Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 3

Russia is offering students up to $87,000 a year to drop university and fight in Ukraine. Positions available: drone operator, drone engineer, technical specialist. Most universities received recruitment quotas they must fill, writes Reuters. 1/

The full package at Far Eastern Federal University in Vladivostok: first-year salary of $68,000, one-off payment of $31,000 after training, monthly allowance of $3,000, plus $2,500 from the university. Free accommodation. Fees covered on return. 2/

The Kremlin confirmed the recruitment drive. Spokesman Peskov: "This is a completely open offer — an offer to join a new type of unit." T he drone forces were created at the end of 2025 at Putin's direct order. 3/

Read 9 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 3

Sanctioned Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska — founder of Rusal and a longtime Putin ally agreed to fund the war.

His refinery in Limerick, Ireland has been running throughout the war. Alumina exports from Ireland to Russia grew from $243M to $376M since 2022— The Moscow Times. 1/

None of this breaches EU rules.

The refinery is owned by Rusal, where Deripaska holds a quarter of shares. Sanctioning a person while leaving his corporate structures intact lets governments claim compliance while keeping the profits flowing. 2/

An investigation by The Irish Times and OCCRP suggests that alumina produced at the Limerick plant feeds into supply chains that may reach dozens of Russian arms manufacturers.

Ukraine's ambassador to Ireland has raised the issue directly with the Irish government. 3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 3

At 21, Dmytro Dovhenko shot down his first Russian Mi-24 helicopter near Pavlivka with a Stinger. He had been a train driver in the Carpathians two weeks before.

Today, at 25, he commands thousands of soldiers as chief sergeant of Ukraine's 32nd "Steel" Brigade — ArmyInfo. 1/

February 24, 2022. A friend from Lviv called: "Dimon, sirens. It started." Dmytro went to the recruitment office. They told him to go home — he was only 21.

He stood outside 20 minutes. Then walked back in: "Start the process. I want to serve."

2/

A month into service, Russian helicopters flew in low. Dmytro had a Stinger. He aimed, waited for the target lock signal. Fired.

"Adrenaline, trembling, empty tube in my hands. Guys peeked out from their shelters and whispered: that's him, he shot it down. That was forever." 3/

Read 7 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 3

"I don't enjoy killing. I treat it as work that cleans Ukraine of Russians, like Colorado beetles." This is 47-year-old sniper Tetyana Khimion, callsign "Tango" — a former ballroom dance instructor from Sloviansk, writes Ukrainska Pravda. 1/

She started dancing at seven. In 2002 she opened her own club "Four Step" in Sloviansk. At eight months pregnant she showed children how to do cartwheels and splits. On the fifth day after giving birth she was back in the studio. Then she decided dancing was not enough. 2/

In summer 2022 she joined Special Operations Forces without telling her husband. When the battalion commander asked who she saw herself as, she answered without hesitation: "A sniper." She had held a rifle for ten to fifteen minutes in her life. But she felt it was hers. 3/

Read 12 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 3

For seven days straight, Ukrainian drones have been hitting Russia's Baltic oil ports — Ust-Luga and Primorsk, thousands of kilometers from the front.

What started on March 23 has become a sustained campaign that has cut Russian oil exports by a factor of three. — United24. 1/

Primorsk loaded 4 tankers instead of 10. Ust-Luga loaded 2 instead of 8.

Russia's total seaborne oil exports fell from 4.1 million to 2.3 million barrels per day along a route that accounts for 28% of all Russian exports. 2/

On March 29 alone, three fuel storage tanks at Ust-Luga were hit with a combined capacity of 90,000 tons.

After the March 25 attack, three oil tankers, five storage tanks, and three berths were damaged. After each strike, oil-loading operations were halted. 3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 2

Fukuyama: The U.S. does not now have a Trump doctrine.

Its behavior can best be explained not by a set of principles, but by the personal interests and preoccupations of the president.

Trump's head is full of resentments, anger, anecdotes, and made-up facts. 1/

Fukuyama: Trump relies on emissaries like Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, neither of whom have the standing or the knowledge to advise wisely.

Members of Congress, journalists and foreign leaders asking the administration what its goals are will never get a clear answer. 2/

Fukuyama: Trump does whatever will best advance his political standing and enrich himself.

At one moment he's demanding regime change, the next moment he explains the regime has already changed. It is not good when the most powerful country is guided by personal interests. 3Х