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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 12, 2024 • 17 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X

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The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/

Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/

2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…

3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks. 5/

4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…

5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/

6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…

Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…

7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/

8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…

9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/

There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…

So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/

Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jan 12

Zelenskyy: Russia’s network of partners is shrinking. What is happening in Iran shows that things will not get easier for Russia.

Every normal person wants the Iranian people to finally free themselves from a regime that has caused so much harm, including to Ukraine. 1/

Zelenskyy: There is information from intel that Russians are preparing a new massive strike on Ukraine. They want to take advantage of the cold.

[The last Russian strike left thousands of Ukrainians without electricity, heating or warm water. Many are still without all three] 2/

Zelenskyy: Russia must choose peace or continued war. That choice depends on partners — first of all, the US and Trump.

All pressure options must stay on the table. We see it works: act on shadow-fleet tankers, block sanctions evasion and those who support rogue regimes. 3X

Read 4 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jan 12

Sen. Kelly: With force that we're going to take your territory — is that who we've become? That's Russia.

We are not that kind of a nation. I'm really concerned when you listen to Miller, what he’s said about this. We're the United States of America. We follow the rules. 1/

Sen. Kelly: United States uphold a standard of morality and an ethical code. We just don't go around and take territories from other countries or threaten to do that. I am rather concerned about where this is headed. 2/

Sen. Kelly: If the United States takes Greenland, it would mean NATO, which has been a driver of peace in the world since WWII, as an organization, that is done.

This has huge consequences. 3X

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jan 11

Russia has lost at least 19 generals since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine has killed senior Russian officers — by artillery, sniper fire, strikes on command posts, and suspected sabotage — both near the front and deep behind it, The Insider reports. 1/

Recent losses include top figures from across Russia’s military hierarchy:

- Igor Kirillov, head of Russia’s radiation, chemical and biological defense troops,
- Yaroslav Moskalik, deputy head of the General Staff’s main operational directorate, 2/

- Mikhail Gudkov, deputy commander-in-chief of the Navy,
- Fanil Sarvarov, head of the General Staff’s operational training department. 3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jan 11

Ukraine is producing 1,500 FPV interceptor drones per day.

Each costs $3,000–$5,000. A Russian Shahed costs $100,000. Ukraine is trying to win the air war by matching cheap threats with cheap counters, not $1M+ missiles — United24. 1/

Zelenskyy pushed interceptor drones from an experiment to a core air-defense tool in July.

By January 2026, Ukraine scaled output to 1,500/day and built these FPVs specifically to hunt Shahed-type drones and other low-cost aerial targets. 2/

Zelenskyy: these interceptors now hit an average 68% success rate.

Russia can launch hundreds of drones fast. Missile-only defense bleeds stockpiles and money. Interceptor FPVs absorb the mass. 3/

Read 11 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jan 11

Ukraine should study Baltic integration policies — what works and what backfires. Because after the war we will need to encourage a shift to Ukrainian without pushing Russian-speaking citizens into alienation.

The Economist uses Latvia as a warning case and calls it a “gift to the Kremlin.” 1/

Latvia shut down Latvian Radio 4 (LR4) on Jan. 1, ending public Russian-language broadcasting after nearly 25 years.

LR4 had a stable audience and an anti-Kremlin, pro-Latvian editorial line. It went silent because it broadcast in Russian. 2/

The legal basis is Latvia’s 2023 National Security Concept: public media content must be in Latvian or “languages belonging to the European cultural space.” Russian does not qualify.

Russian-language media can exist only with private funding. 3/

Read 13 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jan 10

Sen. Tillis: We had 17 military installations in Greenland, and they'd be happy to have us back. We could do it without taking over a NATO country.

And I would defy you [Trump] to find any credible general with a star on his shoulder who would say that it is a good idea. 1/

Sen. Tillis: Stephen Miller speaks for the President of the United States. But when he says that the US government thinks that Greenland should be a part of NATO, he should talk to people like me who have an election certificate and a vote in the US Senate. 2/

Sen. Tillis: What makes me cranky is when we tarnish the extraordinary execution of a mission in Venezuela by turning around and making insane comments about how it is our right to have territory owned by the kingdom of Denmark. 3X