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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 12, 2024 • 17 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X

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The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/

Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/

2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…

3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks. 5/

4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…

5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/

6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…

Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…

7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/

8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…

9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/

There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…

So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/

Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Nov 18

Putin has no plan for winning in Ukraine.

His losses are catastrophic - 984k–1.44m casualties, up to 480k dead and all he has achieved is expanding NATO and wiping out a generation of young Russian men, writes The Economist.

1/

His 2025 summer offensive (the third and largest) — failed.

Russia sends small assault groups into kill zones; if a few break through, they cannot mass without being annihilated.

After tens of thousands of losses, Russia did not seize a single major city this year.

2/

At this pace it would take five more years for Russia to occupy the four regions it claims as its own. If the 2025 casualty rate continues, total Russian losses could reach nearly 4 million.

Every pointless assault today deepens tomorrow’s political crisis inside Russia.

3/

Read 9 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Nov 17

I told CNN that Zelenskyy must act as harshly as possible on the corruption scandal with energy company “Energoatom,” or he risks losing public support among Ukrainians.

1/

People say: “Let’s see how Zelenskyy acts. If he’s not acting, then he’s with the accused. If he really sanctions them, arrests them, prosecutes those who allow this to happen, then, okay, he’s good.”

2/

CNN: It remains unclear whether the scandal will damage Zelenskyy’s standing, as recent KIIS polling still shows about 60% trust in the president.

Ukrainians’ tolerance for corruption has decreased, but not dramatically. 3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Nov 17

Stubb: I'm a realistic optimist, but to be quite honest, I don't see an end to this conflict this year.

The earliest we can get into the negotiating table would be February, March, but that is for President Zelensky to decide. There should be no solo acts. 1/

Stubb: It's obvious that Russia will remain a long-standing threat to security and stability of Europe even after the war. NATO and Europe needs to continue to strengthen our defences.

The defence spending commitment is important and we need greater European investment. 2/

Stubb: We have also recently launched the Shelter Coalition to help protect Ukrainian civilians.

Russia believes they can wear us down by sending more and more troops to the front line, but I firmly believe that they are mistaken. 3/

Read 4 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Nov 17

Ukraine’s ground robot is now fighting like an infantryman.

Droid TW 12.7 held a frontline position for six weeks, writes Militarnyi. Operators sent it to a key crossroads each morning and pulled it back at night.

Russians tried to break through — the robot stopped them.

1/

The robot fired its M2 Browning 12.7 mm and cut down Russian assault groups.

It replaced a full infantry team.

2/

Training operators takes time and money. From zero: 1–1.5 months. A veteran operator needs a week.

Commanders now move operators deeper behind the line to keep them alive.

3/

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Nov 16

Russia’s economy has almost hit a wall.

Q3 2025 GDP grew just 0.6% y/y, down from 1.1% in Q2, and the Central Bank now sees only 0.5-1% growth for the year.

War costs and sanctions are finally biting, writes The Moscow Times. 1/

Two years of war spending kept factories busy but lit an inflation fire: prices are still rising 8% a year.

To fight that, the Central Bank holds rates high, and the civilian economy pays the price with weaker demand and stalled investment. 2/

Russian businesses say lending costs are killing new projects and jobs.

At the same time, the budget is already about $50B in the red this year, so the Kremlin plans to hike VAT from 20% to 22% — pushing the bill onto households and small firms. 3/

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Nov 16

President Stubb: I’m not optimistic about a ceasefire or peace talks in Ukraine this year — maybe by February or March.

Until then, we must maximize pressure on Russia and force Putin to rethink his aim of denying Ukraine’s independence. 1/

Stubb: Ukraine needs two things: financial support, using €140-180B in frozen Russian assets as collateral to get through winter — and increased military pressure.

West must keep supplying weapons. With Putin, only the stick works, he won’t negotiate unless forced. 2/

Stubb: Sanctioning Lukoil and Rosneft was the right move — it hits Russia’s oil sector and the machine funding the war.

Ukraine now needs maximum firepower, not just Tomahawks but anything that can strike Russia’s military and defense industry. 3/