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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 12, 2024 • 17 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X

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The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/

Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/

2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…

3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks. 5/

4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…

5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/

6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…

Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…

7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/

8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…

9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/

There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…

So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/

Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 17

French baker Loïc Nervi bakes bread in Troyeshchyna, Kherson, and Kramatorsk. Locals call him Vitalik.

Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, he has been baking bread for elderly people in frontline and hard-hit areas, writes Hromadske. 1/

He is 43. In France’s Var region, he owns four bakeries and leads a team of 25 people. At home, his wife and two daughters, aged 7 and 9, wait for him. 2/

In March 2022, he went to the Polish-Ukrainian border. Then to Kherson, Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, Fastiv, and Kramatorsk. This is now his tenth mission to Ukraine. 3/

Read 8 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 17

Ukraine recaptured 201 sq km in just five days last week — the fastest battlefield gains since June 2023.

Starlink shutdown crippled Russia's communications and drone operations across the front — The Guardian. 1/

The ISW confirms Ukrainian counterattacks are "likely leveraging the recent block on Russian forces' access to Starlink, which milbloggers claim is causing communications and command and control issues on the battlefield." 2/

201 sq km recaptured in 5 days is almost equivalent to all Russian gains for the entire month of December. The Starlink shutdown is already reshaping the battlefield in Ukraine's favor. 3/

Read 9 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 17

Innovation → test → analytics → scale.

This is how the battlefield evolves in Ukraine’s fifth year. This is how a war of endurance works now.

Michael Kofman writes in Foreign Affairs that the war has shifted from maneuver to positional, drone-saturated attrition in 2026. 1/

In February 2022, Russia aimed to seize Kyiv in days. That failed. What began as a rapid assault has become Europe’s largest conventional war since WWII. Advances are now measured in meters. 2/

Since 2023, the war has turned positional. By 2024–2025 it became a contest of adaptation. Every 3–4 months, tactics change.

Drones, electronic warfare, and precision strike now define who holds initiative on the ground. 3/

Read 14 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 17

Former Ukraine PM Arseniy Yatsenyuk: The position of the American administration is to avoid involving the EU in negotiations with Russia on Ukraine.

Zelenskyy performed here to the maximum — everything that could be said and everyone that could be met, he did it. 1/

Yatsenyuk: We have to prepare for the next winter. Russia caused $65B in damage to Ukraine's energy sector.

Without long-range missiles, without Tomahawks, without Ukraine having the ability to retaliate, we will not be able to ensure energy security for the next year. 2/

Yatsenyuk: Starmer's statement is very clear. Even if a peace agreement is signed — Great Britain, the EU, and everyone else must continue funding Ukraine's defense.

He is saying that even if a peace agreement is signed, Russia will continue preparing for the next offensive. 3/

Read 9 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 17

Ben Shapiro: Russia has never quite entered Europe; it’s existed on the fringes. As Dugin says, “Atlanticist” ideas aren’t Russian ideas.

Integrating Russia into Europe has been a failed experiment. Europe and the U.S. must uphold shared values to sustain their alliance. 1/

Ben Shapiro: The Germans and the French fought for centuries. The French and the English fought for centuries.

The Roman Empire was its own civilization; outlying areas were “barbarians.” After Rome fell rose Christendom, ended by the Reformation and the Peace of Westphalia.

2/

Ben Shapiro: Civilizations define themselves internally and against others. Rome was not only what was under its sway, but in opposition to German, Assyrian, Persian armies.

Christendom was forged in opposition to Islam, which spread deep into Europe, even into France.

3/

Read 4 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 17

Sanna Marin: We, as Europe, would be fooling ourselves to think there will be peace if Russia wins.

If a bully in a classroom is allowed to take whatever it wants, would we think it would stop? Absolutely not. The war would continue in the future. 1/

Marin: Long-lasting just peace cannot be made on Putin’s terms. I don’t see that Putin has any initiative to even come to the peace negotiation table with a serious mind.

He doesn’t want peace. The only way to stop this war is to support Ukraine. 2/

Marin: Ukraine shown incredible resilience, but they are constantly in a situation where they are begging for things they already need — or needed yesterday.

If we give too little, too late, the war will only continue. We need to support more, regardless of what the US does. 3/