Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Apr 12, 2024 17 tweets 6 min read Read on X
The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/
Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/ Image
2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…
3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks.  5/ Image
4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…
Image
5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/
6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…
Image
Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…
Image
7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/
8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…
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9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/
There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…
Image
So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/
Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

Apr 16
Pistorius: The €90 billion Ukraine loan will be provided over two years. After elections in Hungary I expect the EU blockade to lift soon.

This money enables Ukraine to procure military equipment sustainably — and rebuild the infrastructure Russia destroyed.

1/
Pistorius: Our support package includes hundreds of Patriot guided missiles, delivered steadily over four years.

Additional launchers for IRIS-T systems. Funding for deep strike drones manufactured in Ukraine.

And we will jointly develop medium and deep strike drones.

2/
Pistorius: A quick end to the Hormuz blockade are in our fundamental interest. Unfortunately, it is not in sight.

Russia benefits from the surge in oil prices. Moscow uses this money to fund its terror against Ukraine.

Russia has never taken the peace talks seriously.

3X
Read 4 tweets
Apr 15
Keane: The Iranians shut down the Strait of Hormuz and got a ceasefire. The war stopped. That's what they wanted, because we are pounding the daylights out of them.

We are shutting down Iran's source of income. Economic warfare. The administration has more leverage. 1/
Keane: The Iranians made two miscalculations. They went into negotiations thinking the administration will make concessions because of pressure. Wrong.

We stood our ground. The president says I want everything. Iran had to go home with their tail between their legs. 2/
Keane: This is phase one. The blockade, taking revenue away from them, make certain no ships go in or out dealing with Iranian oil.

My judgment is it probably won't open up. That brings the operation to open up the straits: clear it, get the mines out, make it secure. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Apr 15
Russian troops surrendered to robots. Drones and ground bots took a Russian position without infantry and without losses on Ukraine’s side — Telegraph.

Zelenskyy: For the first time in the history of this war, an enemy position was taken exclusively by unmanned systems. 1/
Ground robots now carry out assault, evacuation, mine-clearing, logistics, supply runs and reconnaissance.

Zelenskyy: they completed 22,000+ missions in the last three months. Syrskyi says robotic systems handled 50% more tasks in March than in Feb. 2/
Ukraine now has 280+ companies building ground robots. Kyiv aims to produce 20,000+ this year, with 99% made in Ukraine.

Front-line models can operate up to 31 miles away, and many cost £7,500-£22,000. Some brigades already created dedicated UGV units. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Apr 15
Hodges: Crimea is still the decisive terrain of the war. For Putin it is symbolic, because the whole war started with seizing it.

It also anchors Russia’s ports and its ability to project power across the Black Sea. 1/
Hodges: If Russia can no longer use Crimea’s ports, bridge, and ferries safely, the peninsula loses real value.

The Black Sea Fleet has already been pushed out of Sevastopol, and isolating Crimea further would strip Moscow of a key military asset. 2/
Hodges: Ukraine does not need a frontal assault on Crimea right now.

It should keep isolating it, keep hitting airfields and air defenses, and make the Kerch bridge unusable. Crimea is still on Zelenskyy, Syrskyi, and Budanov’s objective list. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Apr 15
Trump deployed 10,000 sailors, a dozen warships, and dozens of aircraft to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. He promised to stop "any and all ships."

In First 24 hours 6 ships turned back. Zero seized. Iran's ghost tankers kept moving — The Times. 1/ Image
Trump ordered the Navy to block "any and all Ships" at the Strait of Hormuz. He warned that anyone who paid Iran's transit toll would lose safe passage.

Central Command narrowed the mission to vessels heading to or from Iranian ports. 2/
The Elpis is a Comoros-flagged tanker under US sanctions for ferrying Iranian oil to China. In March it loaded methanol at Bushehr port and sat in the Gulf for two weeks.

After the blockade started, tracker websites showed it came to a virtual standstill outside the strait. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Apr 15
Hodges: Peter Magyar’s win should remove Hungary’s veto on EU funds for Ukraine pretty soon.

Kyiv is only a couple of months away from literally running out of money, so unlocking the €90bn package would be both timely and important. 1/
Hodges: It feels like momentum has shifted in Ukraine. You no longer hear that Russian victory is inevitable.

Russia seems unable to stop strikes on oil, gas, and defense industry targets, while Putin has gone quiet and moved more air defenses around his residence. 2/
Hodges: With Orban out, Moscow loses another voice inside the EU and NATO.

Russia got nowhere in Venezuela, Armenia, and Syria, failed to swing Moldova, and now has less ability to shape events in neighboring states. Only Georgia and Belarus still stand out. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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