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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 12, 2024 • 17 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X

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The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/

Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/

2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…

3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks. 5/

4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…

5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/

6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…

Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…

7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/

8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…

9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/

There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…

So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/

Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Mar 6

“I had a $700,000 salary in Seattle. I still went to fight in Ukraine.”

Andrew Webber, a U.S. Army captain and Iraq–Afghanistan veteran, left his corporate law career and joined Ukraine’s International Legion in 2023. He died in combat on July 27, 2023, reports hromadske. 1/

Webber graduated from West Point in 2005. The U.S. Army deployed him to Iraq in 2006, then to Afghanistan in 2008 and 2012.

During his second Afghan tour he commanded the 1191 Cavalry reconnaissance and sniper unit. His callsign was “Palwar” — “fighter” in Dari. 2/

He earned the Bronze Star for valor in Afghanistan.

His mother, Carla Webber, says the family learned about the award only when the certificate arrived by mail.

Andrew later left the Army with the rank of captain. 3/

Read 12 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Mar 6

Here is how interceptor drones shoot down Russian Shaheds and Orlans.

These are the drones Zelenskyy proposed exchanging for Patriot missiles at Gulf States, writes Ukrainska Pravda. 1/

Ukraine cannot fire missiles at every target. Russia launches hundreds of drones per week. Patriot missiles cost millions of dollars. Interceptor drones cost 50,000–100,000 UAH ($1.3k–$2.6k). 2/

According to Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, interceptor drones shot down 70% of all Shaheds destroyed over Kyiv in February. They are now a key layer of Ukraine’s air defense. 3/

Read 12 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Mar 5

Mykola Liubarets flew a helicopter into the besieged Azovstal steel plant to see his wife. He carried out several near-suicidal missions delivering ammunition and evacuating wounded soldiers.

For these flights he received the title Hero of Ukraine, writes Ukrainska Pravda. 1/

When his commander asked him: “Will you fly to Mariupol?”, he did not hesitate.

Liubarets: “If I’m allowed to take my wife out of there, consider me already on board.” 2/

His wife Yuliia was a military anesthesiologist working in the underground hospital at Azovstal, treating wounded defenders during the siege of Mariupol. 3/

Read 13 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Mar 4

Kellogg: The Russians and the Chinese are kind of saying we can't match up. You're on your own with Iran.

The real country that's hurt by this is China, because 20% of their oil has been coming from Iran. 1/

Kellogg: You're going to have a hard time finding anybody that wants to take charge in Iran now because they know it's their demise if they do so.

We've systematically taken their leadership apart. 3/

Kellogg: It's going to reach a point where there's going to be nobody in charge, which is good. The secular state is gone.

The president was so right about the Iranian people taking charge of their government. When that happens, you're going to see a changed Mideast. 4/

Read 9 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Mar 4

Former U.S. Secretary of State Blinken: One possible off-ramp from the war with Iran is simply declaring victory.

Saying the ayatollah is gone and Iran’s nuclear and missile programs have been degraded — and leaving the future of the regime to the Iranian people.

1/

Blinken: Looking at the war with Iran, two factors will determine where this goes and how it ends — markets and munitions.

2/

Blinken: Watch the markets — oil, stocks, and bonds. President Trump is very attentive to them. If stocks and bonds fall, or oil rises sharply and stays there, that could become a limiting factor.

3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Mar 4

J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon: Since World War II, wars usually move markets but rarely have long-term effects.

The exception was 1973, when oil prices tripled. If the Iran war is short and oil hits $80–$100, it likely won’t matter much — but if it drags on, all bets are off.

1/

Jamie Dimon: The most important thing in the world right now is geopolitics.

The free Western democratic world is under pressure — from Russia in Ukraine, Iran in the Middle East, and to some extent China, which wants to divide and weaken the West economically and militarily.
2/

Jamie Dimon: War with Iran can create an opportunity for a longer and more just peace in the Middle East, involving Saudi Arabia, the UAE and some path to Palestinian statehood.

Countries in the region want peace because strong economies and foreign investment depend on it.

3X