Post

More from @Pataramesh

Patarames

@Pataramesh

Jun 21

https://twitter.com/Pataramesh/status/1935262208092725652

People want 🇮🇷🇮🇱 insights
Let me give them some:

➡️ In the first week of OTP-III Iran's primary goal was to degrade Israel's air- and missile defenses

- By forcing ripple launches against single high-speed 🇮🇷 missiles
( I observed up to 14 against a single missile)
1/5

https://twitter.com/Pataramesh/status/1935262208092725652

- by hitting high-end sensor elements like the X-band AN/TPY-2 radars

➡️ Which in turn disables 🇮🇱 capability to identify and discriminate between real targets and decoys, but most importantly; avoid wasting interceptors on empty spent 1st stage boosters which come behind them

If Iran manages to deplete 🇮🇱's interceptor inventory, it will not only cause a 2-digit billion $$$ financial loss
➡️ An Israel which can't defend against ballistic-missiles can't continue a war for long and will have a very bad negotiation position at a future table

Read 4 tweets

Patarames

@Pataramesh

Jun 15

Time to explain some realities:

- Israeli missile interceptors stocks & sensor performance will degrade over time

- Iranian missile bases & launchers safety protocols will get more loose once the in-situ sabotage assets like OWA- & FPV-drones/ATGMs are found or depleted

1/4

Since Israel hit civilian targets at the start of the attack, Iran will use heavy missiles like Emad to hit targets, even in urban regions.

Once Arrow-3 and THAAD are exhausted by trying to catch hypersonics like Kheybar-Shekan-2/Fattah-1 via multiple launches against single missiles

➡️ The gates are open for heavy Emad hits

And up until here, there is no talk about higher end even heavier warhead missiles like the Khorramshahr family

In comparison, Israel relies primarily on OWA-type drones to hit soft targets.

The psychological effects of seeing a burning oil depot are very different to experiencing a blast of a 1-ton warhead at mach 6

Read 5 tweets

Patarames

@Pataramesh

Jun 13

🟡 As Operation True Promise III is about to unfold:

➡️ A thread on which weapons 🇮🇷 will likely use for what targets:

1: Fattah-2
Maybe the best tool to take out 🇮🇱's U.S. AN/TPY-2 radar, a key asset for missile defense

But not known to be operational

2: Khorramshahr-4

Unlikely to be used but among the best systems to directly strike the THAAD AN/TPY-2 radar and battery components.

It would also be a suited tool against the Arrow missile defense layers.

Use unlikely as Fattah-1 is available.

3: Fattah-1

Operational and suited for taking out missile defenses and their radars

Probably the missile most likely to be used at the very start of the OTP-III strikes

Read 18 tweets

Patarames

@Pataramesh

Dec 26, 2024

🔴 🇨🇳 6th Gen. fighter

- 20km+ altitude operation regime
- Long-range super-cruise
with a high-lift ↔️ low-drag low-observable airframe...

A new era of beyond visual range warfare
➡️ And it was not started by the usual suspects 🇺🇸🇷🇺

➡️ First 🇨🇳 thrust-vector-control fighter

There is a non-zero chance that it has a hybrid propulsion of two jet engines and a RAM-jet with a top intake

But for now it seems its size and the resulting thrust requirements could not be meet with just two engines

If it was a bomber, J-20-like DSI would have done the job.

➡️ This beast is made for very high speeds

Oh and those things at its cheeks are side radar arrays. You don't need that on a bomber...

Read 4 tweets

Patarames

@Pataramesh

Apr 30, 2024

Weapon systems not unveiled yet:

Next generation 🇮🇷 "Guerrilla" air-defense

➡️ Combining Tabas and Raad ambush SAM systems in the yet unknown SAM system (left photo)

Lets take a look at the features of Raad-3/Tabas-2 (whatever its called), some of which are unique
1/2

Main feature is passive engagement capability of the Raad system, which combines infrared volume search with a long-range laser-range-finder

➡️ It allows passive engagement up until the last seconds before SAM impact, when it switches to terminal SARH mode and radar is turned on

In the new system, infrared search cameras are likely mounted on the mast, putting it at higher position

On the photo, the mast only mounts the long-range directional data-link antenna, which is a very important capability of the system.
It relies on upper-echelon early warning

Read 5 tweets

Patarames

@Pataramesh

Apr 16, 2024

I mean, 🇮🇱 already put it into a graphic how the retaliation against 🇮🇷 could look like & which weapon type to be used, if things go kinetic

➡️ Terrain-masking F-15I flying over Jordan
➡️ Popping up over Iraq
➡️ Dashing to mach ~1,5 at ~14km ALT
➡️ Launching two Rocks ALBM

1/6

➡️ Rocks flying under low drag conditions & mach ~1,5 initial velocity to 600-800km range at mach >6

➡️ DSMAC terminal seeker allowing attacking accurately, targets that are masked by terrain towards west attack vector

➡️ Retaining mach ~5 impact velocity for penetrating effect

➡️ mach >5 Terminal evasive maneuvering, would mean only few 🇮🇷 missile defense interceptors could defend against it (e.g S-300PMU2)

➡️ A raid size of 80 F-15, would mean 160 Rocks ALBM, which can easily saturate S-300 battery

➡️ Penetration warhead could put Natanz UGF at risk

Read 6 tweets

Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

Patarames

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

More from @Pataramesh

Patarames

Patarames

Patarames

Patarames

Patarames

Patarames

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Send Email!