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Patarames Profile picture
@Pataramesh
Apr 13 • 11 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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🔴 My deep article about Iran weapons of choice during the ongoing retaliation strike
⬇️

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More from @Pataramesh

Patarames Profile picture
Apr 12
🇮🇱 Ballistic-missile defenses
🆚
🇮🇷 Ballistic-missile

Arrow-3 effective against:

- Shahab-3
- Ghadr *
- Emad *
-Sejil-2 *
- Dezful
- Qiam-2
- Rezvan
- Khorramshahr-2 *

*(if decoys/chaff/ other pen-aids discriminated by AN-TPY-2)

1/8
Image
Arrow-2 (-1) effective against (1/2):

- Shahab-3
- Ghadr (if non-sub-munition & no "evader MaRV")
- Sejil-2 (if non-sub-munition & no "evader MaRV")
- Emad (if no "evader MaRV")
- Dezful (if no "evader MaRV")
- Qiam-2
- Rezvan (at reduced range/coverage)
⬇️ Image
Arrow-2 (-1) effective against (2/2):

- Khorramshahr-2 (if non-sub-munition & no "evader MaRV")
- Khorramshahr-4 *
-Haj-Qasem *
- Kheybar-Shekan *
- Fattah-1 (at point defense range/coverage or launch on remote of several interceptors)

*(at reduced range/coverage)

⬇️ Image
Read 8 tweets
Patarames Profile picture
Mar 19
Low-cost kill-chain necessary against high-end opponent (🇮🇱):

- Stand-off reconnaissance (SAR, 140km)

- Low observable, long-range drone (~1500km strike radius)

- Stand-off PGM (30-40km)

- Airborne relayed communication

➡️ Omni-direction strike
➡️ Never get closer than 30km


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The strike component, the Shahed-197 drone is/has:

- Physically small
- Flying wing design with extensive RAS
- Low thermal signature piston engine
- Internal weapon bay
- Low-cost

Hence may could get within 30km or 🇮🇱 radars

The subsonic glide-bomb is:
- Small
- Very low-cost
The stand-off reconnaissance sensors on Shahed-129/-139/-149 could operate above friendly airspace (🇸🇾)

SAR/GMTI radar with up to 140km range

Protected by SAM and often still too far away for long-range AAM shot

With low-cost & high numbers jamming & losses could be countered
Read 4 tweets
Patarames Profile picture
Mar 15
Beyond MaRV:

Is 🇮🇷Khorramshahr-4 relying on plasma "stealth" to defeat endo-atmospheric ABM system?

Its exo-MaRV or bus, inserts it at steep angle/AoA into the atmosphere
➡️ The resulting dynamic pressure, may heat up air at nosetip stagnation-point to create ionized plasma
1/3

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This effect usually occurs at faster speeds than the mach 12-14 of K-4 missile

➡️ But a at steep angle & high ballistic coefficient, conditions experienced by the unguided re-entry vehicle, become similar to that of ICBM RV

➡️ Plasma made Starship's Ka-/Ku-band radio-link fail Image
The steep AoA K-4 RV remains for a shorter time inside the atmosphere, compared to faster, ~20° ICBM RV

This means ionized plasma needs to be created for a shorter time

Defeating:
- Arrow-3, THAAD by exo-MaRV maneuvering

and maybe

- Arrow-2, PAC-3 by sufficiently reducing RCS Image
Read 5 tweets
Patarames Profile picture
Mar 3
Up until Zolfaghar SRBM; 🇮🇷BM's needed accurate position of the launch point

Like e.g 🇺🇸 Pershing-I & 🇨🇳 DF-15, IMU of earlier Fateh lineage BM needed to be aligned first ➡️⏱️

Not trusting GNSS robustness, mid-course update is done by ground-based positioning-system "GPS"

1/3 Image
Current "tactical series" BM, hence can launch from any point, without any site preparation
➡️ Improving survivability and launch-time

"Strategic series" liquid-propellant BMs however still go for most robust all-inertial guidance

(Khorramshahr-4 potentially stellar-inertial) Image
Would the antenna stations of ground positioning systems not be too fragile against physical attacks?

Likely, especially if strategic-weapons are used.

➡️ But there is a potential for mobile ground-positioning stations.
Making this component of the navigation system survivable Image
Read 4 tweets
Patarames Profile picture
Feb 24
🇮🇷 "Mahdavi"-class drone-carrier, a serious/robust power-projection asset for the IRGC?

➡️ Lets take a deeper look of its (future) potential

Q - Can it defended itself in front of western naval-/air superiority?

1/9 ⬇️
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A - The rear container area can hold at least 6 containers volume of 6 x 4 = 24 or 6 x 6 = 36 large SAM.
These would be 120km range Sayyad-3 or ABM-capable Sayyad-3F. The longest reach air defense component to attack the carrying aircraft directly
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The space between Sayyad-3s can be used for 3 x 8 = 24 20-30km range Navab/Zoobin SAM

The last defensive layer would be ~18, 20mm "Vulcan" Gatling CIWS

Protection against sub-surface threats would likely only come in form of decoys

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Read 9 tweets
Patarames Profile picture
Jan 21
2024 Qaem-100 "SLV" more ICBM than 2023 version?

Missile detail tweet:

What makes an ideal ICBM?
➡️ Being ready-to-launch and long-term storable without maintenance

It seems that the change of prototype and final version is:
➡️ Getting rid of liquid-fuel roll-thrusters

1/3
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The hypergolic, liquid-propellant. roll-axis stabilization thrusters on the prototype, meant toxic liquids being present in the SLV/ICBM

A "traditional" design path, used in many modern ICBM, that go for single-nozzle motors with highest efficiency

➡️ How to avoid that? Image
The Qaem-105 prototype already had a key "no-maintenance" feature:
All flexseal-nozzle actuators were of electro-mechnical type
➡️ Only requiring a battery

To get rid of any leakage-prone liquids and make it more reliable, a two path solution seems to have been employed ⬇️ Image
Read 5 tweets

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