Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Apr 14 8 tweets 2 min read Read on X
NEW: The composition of the ongoing Iranian attack on Israel is similar to that of strikes that Russia has repeatedly conducted against Ukraine in efforts to determine the optimal package to penetrate Western-style air- and missile defenses. 🧵(1/8)Image
2/ The Iranian drone and missile attack into Israel shows that Iran is learning from the Russians and the Houthis to develop increasingly dangerous and effective strike packages against Israel and the US.
3/ The combination of Iranian drones and both cruise and ballistic missiles against Israel is meant to confuse and overwhelm Israeli air defenses. Launches of concurrent attacks by Iranian-backed actors in Lebanon and Yemen are part of this effort.
4/ This Iranian approach mirrors Russia’s experimentation with combinations of ballistic and cruise missiles alongside Iranian drones to launch increasingly effective strike packages able to penetrate US and European anti-missile and air defense systems.
5/ Iran has also learned from Houthi attacks targeting international shipping around Yemen.
6/ The Houthis have used combinations of Iranian drones and missiles against US air and missile defense systems, allowing Iran and the Houthis to test and improve their strike packages.
7/ The continued use of Iranian-designed drones by multiple enemies of the US and the deepening ties between the actors using them will help Tehran, Russia, North Korea, and China to refine their use of these systems against the United States and its allies and partners.
8/ The US and its allies and partners face an increasingly interconnected group of adversaries helping one another and learning from one another.

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More from @TheStudyofWar

Apr 14
NEW: The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force launched a large-scale drone and missile attack from Iranian territory that targeted Israel from Iranian territory on April 13 - the first time Iran has targeted Israel directly from Iranian territory. (1/5)Image
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2/ Members of Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance” appear to have conducted attacks targeting Israel simultaneously with Iran’s first wave of attacks.
3/ Iran warned Israel’s partners, particularly the United States and Jordan, not to intervene in Iran’s attack against Israel.
Read 5 tweets
Apr 14
NEW: Tonight's Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment considers several most dangerous courses of action (MDCOAs) that could occur if Ukrainian forces continue to suffer from critical shortages in essential artillery, air defense, and other munitions and systems. (1/4)Image
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2/ ISW is not currently forecasting that these MDCOAs will occur, and, on the contrary, assesses that they are very unlikely to occur if additional US and Western aid is rapidly forthcoming.
3/ Current Ukrainian shortages of shells and air defense systems, however, have increased the likelihood of these MDCOAs to the level at which they demand careful consideration.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 12
More Key Takeaways from the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:

ISW continues to assess that the development of Ukraine’s defense industrial base can allow Ukraine to sustain its defense against Russia and longer-term national security needs with significantly reduced foreign military assistance.
2/ Russian forces are domestically producing and fielding a new air-to-surface subsonic cruise missile against Ukraine designated the Kh-69 as part of continued efforts to improve strike packages and penetrate Ukraine’s degraded air defense.
3/ The Russian Federal Security Service claimed that it prevented a group of Central Asians from perpetrating a terrorist attack against a Russian military facility in occupied Ukraine with Ukraine’s help, likely as part of efforts to set information conditions to portray any future Ukrainian attack on legitimate Russian military targets in occupied Ukraine as “terrorist” attacks.
Read 5 tweets
Apr 12
NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged that Russia’s ongoing strike campaign against Ukrainian energy facilities aims in part to devastate the Ukrainian defense industry. (🧵1/5)Image
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2/ Putin's statement confirms ISW’s ongoing assessment that Russian strikes against Ukrainian energy facilities aim to degrade Ukrainian defense industrial capacity.
3/ Significant delays in Western aid, due in part to successful Russian information operations and Western hesitancy, have created an opportunity for Russian offensive operations and Russia’s strike campaign.
Read 5 tweets
Apr 12
US European Command (EUCOM) Commander and NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) General Christopher Cavoli reported that EUCOM and NATO are strengthening their ability to respond to the “chronic threat” that Russia poses to global stability and European security in hopes of deterring future Russian aggression against NATO. 🧵(1/6)
2/ Cavoli stated during a briefing to the US House of Representatives Armed Services Committee on April 10 that Russia poses a “chronic threat” to the world and warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin does not intend to limit or stop his aggression at the borders of Ukraine.
3/ Cavoli reported that EUCOM is responding to the Russian threat by enhancing its deterrence posture across Europe, including strengthening EUCOM’s eastern flank with rotational force deployments, expanding EUCOM’s pre-positioned stocks, and modernizing EUCOM’s infrastructure to enable a rapid reception of reinforcing forces.
Read 6 tweets
Apr 11
NEW: Russian forces conducted another large-scale series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of April 10 to 11 that caused notable and likely long-term damage to Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. 🧵(1/6)Image
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2/ Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated that Ukraine needs more Patriot air defense batteries to protect both Ukraine’s population centers and frontline areas.
3/ Russian strikes have forced Ukraine to make difficult decisions between providing air defense coverage to large population centers in the rear and active areas on the frontline, and Russia appears to be exploiting Ukraine’s degraded air defense umbrella...
Read 6 tweets

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