A few thoughts after a long night. First, I think there's a strong case that Iran's reprisal was a strategic error. For months Israel was increasingly isolated, America looked feckless and Iran was projecting power through proxies whilst preserving detente with Arab states. 🧵
Then came last night. It was bad for Iranian deterrence. Iran opted for a big attack rather than a symbolic one, but a big attack that was calibrated not to do much damage. That won't deter Israel; on the contrary, it will make Iran look weak and ineffective.
It also brought Western and Arab states together in defense of Israel, and it pushed Gaza down the global agenda. Israel will portray itself as a victim; talk of restricting arms sales will be set aside; the plight of Gazans will be secondary to fears of a bigger regional war.
There are some caveats. Israel's air defenses performed well, but they might perform less well without two weeks to prepare and the help of at least three other countries. On the other hand, though, I doubt Iran could make these sorts of barrages into a regular event.
The question now is whether Israel makes its own errors in response. Israel's current leadership, the one that missed the warning signs of October 7 and then blundered into an atrocious, endless war in Gaza, simply cannot be trusted to navigate an even more complex conflict.
The "bear hug" doesn't work. Biden needs to be absolutely clear (as do Israel's other Western and Arab partners) that they will not support a rash Israeli reprisal that brings us another step closer to all-out regional war, and that there will be real consequences if it happens.
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