Thread by @Smug_editing

Morning after follow-up on Iran v. Israel.

Short version: Scenario 1 playing out.

Iranians whacked Israelis hard enough to reestablish deterrence, while the White House is telling the Israelis that "if you want a war, get out of my house".

Longer explanation below.

1/x

https://twitter.com/Smug_editing/status/1779259753597685952

So now that it's morning in Israel, whats happened?

We have the Israelis claiming like 99% of the drones/missiles/etc were intercepted.

Damage assessments are still coming in, but honestly, news reports indicate relatively minimal damage.

2/x

That said, the Iranians DID get hits in and the failure of some interception systems to stop some missiles is going to give Israel/Western defense analysts some very restless nights in the weeks to come.

So did Iran's attack achieve nothing?

Well... not quite.

3/x

VISUALLY, the attack was a solid success. The Iranian regime can go to its people, proxy groups, and international audience and say:

"Yeah bro, we had missiles OVER ISRAEL'S PARLIAMENT in Jerusalem. Jews running around screaming in terror. Shit was so cash money."

4/x

Again, in the Middle East, PERCEPTION MATTERS almost as much as actual strength. Looking *too* weak is an invitation for attack.

Humiliating the Israelis — the 800-pound gorilla in the room — and showing them to be vulnerable, like they did above, is a strong signal.

5/x

The Iranians are also signaling LOUDLY that they consider the matter more or less settled.

Israelis whacked them with a stick over Damascus, now Iran whacked back with *their* stick via these strikes.

"Lets be civilized and stop here. America, don't push this or else."

6/x

The White House is basically in agreement. They know this was for show.

From DC's point of view, the Western alliance demonstrated that it could defend Israel, intercept attacks, etc.

The Israelis are being told — LOUDLY — that they won't be supported if they escalate.

7/x

Adding pressure is that basically the rest of the world, including the major powers, agree. They either have been or are now calling for "restraint".

i.e., this matter is settled, don't escalate this into a war.

8/x

The Israelis, being the attacked/now-"humiliated" party are being VERY LOUD about how ANGRY they are and promising strikebacks.

Calling for a UNSC meeting (lots of eyes rolling over this), some figures promising ~REVENGE~, and mulling strike-back options.

9/x

And of course, the commentariat + lobbying groups are now in overdrive, trying to frame the attack as A NEW LINE THAT HAS BEEN CROSSED.

They'll spend the next few days trying to whip up a frenzy and mobilize some more Western (read: US support).

10/x

This includes a lot of the usual "we should apply/reapply" sanctions discourse.

11/x

But honestly — without U.S. support and with the entire international community basically saying "don't push this further" — Israel's options are limited.

Jerusalem is probably sitting around discussing what face-saving minor retaliatory attack can be done.

12/x

The IDF — which, as military guys, are the most cognizant of their abilities and on-the-ground-realities — are likely being very careful outlining "here's what we could realistically do" options that don't push escalation.

13/x

In summary: we're moving toward Scenario 1: facing-saving tit-for-tat stuff that de-escalates the situation. Iran's established that consulate hits are red lines and everyone seems to agree.

Stick-whacking logic remains dominant.

14/x

Note: there is STILL a chance that Israel could do something to escalate, not de-escalate, the situation.

But without US backing, I'm personally struggling to imagine what that could be.

THIS time around, it's a win for #TeamNothingEverHappens.

15/15

Afternoon update, and calling it for now.

Barring a dramatic reversal over the next few hours/days, this looks to be winding down.

We now return to our regularly scheduled shitposting.

https://twitter.com/Smug_editing/status/1779550831341183442