Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Apr 14 9 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Today the narrative among some is that Iran’s unprecedented massive attack with missiles and drones is just “symbolic” and didn’t harm much so therefore it can be shrugged off.

That was the same mentality about the rocket fire from Gaza two decades ago and also the Hezbollah rocket fire and the Houthi attacks. The always change the goal posts so hundreds or thousands of missiles are no big deal. And then when Hamas massacres 1,000 people and takes 250 hostage then they are surprised.
If you don’t take one missile being fired as a threat then it becomes two and then ten and 100 and 1,000. The fact is that systematically Iran has been allowed to spread drone and missile terror around the Middle East and also sent drones to Russia to terrorize Ukrainians. Did the same people who say it was just “symbolic” say that when missiles and drones rain down on Ukrainian civilians?
The fact is that the decision to ignore Hamas rockets and then Hezbollah rockets and then Houthi attacks and then Iraqi militia attacks and now Iran’s attacks is destroying the region. Air defenses are not a magic wand OR A SUBSTITUTE FOR POLICY AND STRATEGY.
Countries that dismiss these attacks will find they get worse and worse. That’s what happened with Hamas and Hezbollah and Israel’s answer has been to evacuate the borders but it has no strategy to defeat them and end the threat. And these groups know this.
It always starts with self delusion and 3D chess of saying “well no one was harmed in the attack” but eventually people are harmed and then one evacuates the borders and surrenders part of the country to these attacks and then hostages are taken and people massacred. It’s a bad cycle to enter
Hamas was emboldened by a decade of wars where Israel didn’t retaliate and just “managed” the conflict or wanted to “shrink” the conflict until it blew up. Conflicts can’t be managed forever. It’s not a policy, it’s attrition and it’s a losing prospect. Israel has to find a way to break this cycle
Entering into the Hamas-Hezbollah equation with Iran and the Houthis and PIJ and the PMU in Iraq has emboldened all of them and let them dictate the time and place of attacks and surrenders initiative on all fronts under the delusion that air defenses are enough and that they alone are a strategy and policy.
The fact is that having walls is not a strategy. Athens learned this during the Pelopenssian war and so did Byzantium. Walls are just a way to postpone the inevitable defeat. Israel must rethink this absence of a clear strategy because while it looks phenomenal now to intercept 200 drones and missiles, the larger picture requires a next step.
One the one hand April 14 was important for air defenses and an unprecedented defeat of drones and ballistic missiles but that’s just a tactic, the next step is to form these various fronts into a strategy and stop letting Iran have the initiative on every front.

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More from @sfrantzman

Apr 16
There should be a kind of "alternate history" article(s) on how Iran and its proxies were empowered to grow exponentially in the region and it should include Israel's policies, which were ostensibly against Iran and the proxies...but explain how this ended up with Iran in an unprecedented and strong position on Israel's borders.
What I mean is the aphorism, when everyone is thinking the same thing, someone isn't thinking. It requires a critical reading of the history to explain the policies that enabled Hamas to become exponentially more powerful than it was 20 years ago.
And it requires some explanation why Israel's conception of strategy decided that having an increasingly powerful Hezbollah on the northern border, especially after the challenges of 2006...became "this is fine." Even as it became clear that Hezbollah was not deterred, but rather Israel was becoming deterred.
Read 19 tweets
Apr 15
I just realized that one outcome of Iran launching such a massive unprecedented attack using drones and missiles is that it wanted to create a new bar for such attacks in the future so it can attack Israel with fewer projectiles directly and then have it portrayed as normal and acceptable
You see all the people who already went to bat for this narrative claiming this was just a symbolic attack not meant to succeed…so they now define 350 missiles as acceptable. And so if Iran launches 20 missiles they will have redefined that as fine
The whole narrative when it comes to Israel is always to define things that are unacceptable in any other context, such as attacks on civilians, as basically normal and acceptable “retaliation” or “resistance” and thus make any Israeli response “escalation”
Read 4 tweets
Apr 15
The worst takes on the Iranian attack of April 13-14 are those who call it “symbolic”. This was a massive, unprecedented attack of historic proportions. Never before in history were so many drones, ballistic, missiles and cruise missiles (350 in total) used at the same time in an attack, and from several different fronts and directions, including attacks from Hezbollah in Lebanon and from the direction of Yemen and over Iraq and Jordan, and almost all of it timed to arrive within around ten minutes of eachother…

Those who think it was “symbolic” or designed not to succeed either know nothing about the weapons involved, the complexity of planning this, know nothing about history, know nothing about the complexity of the air defenses involved and billions of investment it took over four decades to meet this attack, or are simply being purposely disingenuous (more likely).
I suspect most of those making the comment aren’t purposely ignorant, they know firing 350 drones and missiles that require different times to arrive and targeting different areas of Israel with precision from four directions is incredibly complex and was not designed to fail…they need to downplay it for some reason. Because by their logic if 350 is symbolic then what would 1,000 missiles be?
If Iran wanted a symbolic attack it would have launched a dozen missiles. Does anyone say the attack on Asad base was “symbolic” and it involved two dozen missiles right?
Read 5 tweets
Apr 15
Israel historically understood that it had to be willing to go it alone.

One of the issues after October 7 is how to restore deterrence. My sense is that Iran and its proxies all feel emboldened and have tried to change the "rules" and the "equation" in the region to make it acceptable for them all to attack Israel whenever they want. Israel's partners are willing to help defend, but their message is for Israel not to respond too much...which creates a situation of endless war and managing the conflict. That is what led to Oct. 7.
Not responding and "managing" conflicts is not a good substitute for strategy. It just kicks the can down the road...and kicking the can leads Iran and its proxies to grow stronger.
There is no evidence that Iran or its proxies have gotten weaker the more the conflicts and various fronts and arenas are "managed."

Hezbollah has acquired PGMs and thousands of drones for instance.
Read 9 tweets
Apr 14
The narratives appearing this morning after the unprecedented Iranian attack on Israel (the largest use of drones at a single time in a long range attack) is that the attack can be kind of dismissed because they were intercepted. This is wrong, and here is why.:

First of all this is one of the catch-22s of having good air defenses, which is that attacks are downplayed and Israel especially is told not to respond because the defenses are successful
I think that’s a misreading of the situation. Iran is emboldened and not deterred every time it feels it can attack, whether it is attacking US forces or hijacking ships or attacking Saudi Arabia or having its militias attack Israel, and the U.S. and other countries, such as attacks on Erbil, or killing Americans in Jordan in January
Iran even attacked Pakistan recently. It feels total impunity, for instance operationalizing the Houthis, backing genocidal Hamas, destabilizing the West Bank with PIJ, pushing Hezbollah to launch thousands of attacks, entrenching in Syria, exporting drones to Russia
Read 6 tweets
Apr 11
This new Crisis Group report is all about "civilian police" in Gaza...which it then notes "do not appear in uniform" and also notes that police have ties to Hamas.

It's worth reading just to think of how much work has gone in to whitewashing the "police" in Gaza and how they play a key role in Hamas control and also hijacking aid. Let's take a look at the article,
crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…Image
Image
First of all Hamas runs Gaza and the police are Hamas no matter how much int'l orgs always want to portray them positively.

How can you call them "civilian police" when on October 7 they didn't do anything to prevent the illegal Hamas attack on Israel or prevent Hamas parading dead bodies in the streets of kidnapped people. Wouldn't the police job normally be to render aid and not have bodies paraded in the streets.
I want you to think long and hard about this. We have the images of Shani Louk's body being paraded in the streets while mobs of men celebrate and one of them spits on her. Where are the "police"? I want you to think back to that movie Mississippi Burning where the police are part of the KKK...the "police" in Gaza are Hamas, they are the KKK...they are part of the abuses and part of the oppression. Not part of the solution.
Read 8 tweets

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