Thread by @ArturRehi

Russia has two main weapons - money and bluff.
20 years of soft power, lobbies and corruption and we have a UN where Russia occupies the chair of Security Council, Iran chair of Disarmament, Saudi Arabia as chair of Gender Equality and Women's Rights. Now Russia is trying
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to use all the possibilities of hybrid warfare, pushing for escalation in all zones of influence available to it. But Putin, as always, miscalculated. From the very beginning, things don't go quite according to plan. Putin expected that he would ride across Eastern Europe
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with tanks to the borders of the former USSR, intimidating the West with a nuclear baton. The bluff was turned against him. Because his army, faced with real force, stalled. Because it, too, was a complete bluff. The Ukrainian army was not comparable even to neighboring
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Poland, not in numbers, but in equipment and modern weapons. But instead of taking Kyiv, we are discussing taking small villages. So, the population of Avdiivka before the war was about 30K. The fact that Iran attacked Israel at the instigation of Russia is almost beyond
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doubt. However, its result is almost zero. If Iran and Israel start a new war between themselves, then fuel prices will definitely go up. Putin benefits from rising oil prices. Unlike Ukraine's bombing of Russian refineries, this has a direct impact. When the United States
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expressed concern that Ukraine was destroying Russian refineries and this would affect fuel prices, there was no logic in this. Refineries do not produce oil, but only process it, and their destruction cannot affect the price of raw materials. It is clear that Russian
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agents of influence were at work again. Oil is still one of the main exports, despite sanctions and oil price cap. However, sanctions, although slowly, are working. The economic situation in Russia is really bad, despite some progress in Ukraine, it is obvious that they
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lack equipment and other resources. They are already carrying out banzai attacks on Ural trucks without armor. And advances of several kilometers and the capture of a couple of villages do not have major strategic significance. That is why Russia cannot carry out
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mobilization. They cannot equip the required number of soldiers. The discussed attack on Kharkov is the same bluff that Russia always uses. The goal is to convince the West that helping Ukraine is pointless, since it will lose anyway. It’s very difficult for Ukraine now, but
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Russia’s situation is getting worse every day. Although officially inflation is 7.5%, its real figures are about 14-17% according to experts on this topic. After the Iranian attack, it is possible that the aid to Ukraine, which the Republicans have been blocking for eight
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months, with one stroke of Johnson’s pen, will be sent to Israel. And the news will talk less about Ukraine. This is exactly what Russia is trying to achieve. However, this was a common package for Ukraine and Israel. Let's see how events develop. Russia is doing poorly on
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the Ukrainian front, but on the other fronts of the hybrid war it is successful. Despite the fact that the opinions of decision-makers in the United States often differ from the opinions of the actual majority, they still remain decision-makers. Some of Russia's main allies
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are sitting in the White House now. However, Russia's loss in this war is inevitable. Russia has no chance of winning. Attempts to drag Iran and Israel into a new conflict show that Russia is in despair.
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