Estonian Reserve Soldier.
Bringing you the latest updates on the Russo-Ukrainian war.
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May 6 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
1/6 Ukraine has successfully developed a domestic cruise missile with the range to strike deep into russian territory. Update by @joni_askola 2/6 The Ministry of Strategic Industry of Ukraine has unveiled a new long-range Neptune missile, designed with the capability to target locations up to 1000 kilometers away.
May 6 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
The Russians are trying to take Chasov Yar by May 9. It has no special tactical significance and, as usual, is a political order. So that by Victory Day on May 9 there will be something to present to Putin. But, apparently, this will not happen. The Ukrainian army holds the 1/8
dominant heights and is still repelling Russian attacks. Heavy fighting is taking place in this direction. Russia is using its usual tactics of meat assaults, but apparently is experiencing problems with armor, because more and more in these attacks they are using motorcycles 2/8
May 6 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
1/10 Finland is consistently prepared and is further enhancing its readiness in response to russian aggression, setting an example for others to follow. Update by @joni_askola
2/10 According to the Financial Times, Finland has effectively tested its capacity to manage a military economy and has initiated the storage of military equipment outside its borders as part of its preparations for potential confrontation with an increasingly aggressive russia.
May 5 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
1/5 French intelligence estimates that russia has incurred over 500,000 casualties, including approximately 150,000 deaths in their failed invasion of Ukraine. Update by @joni_askola 2/5 French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné, in an interview with Novaya Gazeta, indicated that russia has suffered approximately 500,000 casualties in its unsuccessful invasion of Ukraine.
May 4 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
1/7 Japan is contemplating a change in its laws to permit the export of weapons to nations combating an invasion, a move that could greatly benefit Ukraine. Update by @joni_askola 2/7 According to Nikkei Asia, Japan's assistance to Ukraine has been restricted to sending bulletproof vests and nonlethal equipment, in compliance with existing export regulations.
May 3 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
1/5 Air Defense News: Italy is likely to send an additional SAMP/T battery to Ukraine. Update by @joni_askola 2/5 Ukraine currently operates a single SAMP/T battery provided by France and Italy. Recent rumors suggested that no additional batteries were forthcoming, so it's excellent news to hear that Ukraine will be receiving a second one, donated by Italy.
May 3 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
1/12 Patience is key: Ukraine should refrain from seeking to launch a counteroffensive right after the situation stabilizes at the end of the year, or in the near future thereafter. Analysis by @joni_askola
2/12 Based on the ISW's assessment, it is highly probable that Ukraine will achieve stabilization of the frontlines in the coming months and might have the ability to initiate limited counteroffensive operations in late 2024 or early 2025. This assessment is controversial.
May 2 • 19 tweets • 8 min read
The introduction of NATO troops into Ukraine will serve as a de-escalation rather than an escalation of the conflict. The opinion that support for Ukraine by Western countries will lead to a Third World War is wrong. But if you try to appease the dictator and give him what
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he demands, then this could be the cause of the Third World War. After all, if Putin gets his way, it will serve as a signal to other dictatorships like China, Iran, and the DPRK that the West can be intimidated, that it can be manipulated and they can achieve their goals
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May 2 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
1/14 Ukraine's biggest mistakes of the war: the delayed response to its manpower issue and succumbing to western pressure to launch a counterattack in 2023. Analysis by @joni_askola
2/14 Overall, this unjust war represents a significant failure for russia and a notable success for Ukraine thus far.
May 1 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
1/6 The Ukraine National Guard's expansion persists, heralding the imminent establishment of its first artillery brigade. Update by @joni_askola based on information from @Militarylandnet 2/6 As per @MilitaryLandnet, the Ukrainian Army command has authorized the establishment of a distinct artillery brigade within the structure of the National Guard.
May 1 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
Protests against the so-called “foreign agents law” continue in Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia. The protests have not stopped for several evenings in a row. On April 17, the Georgian parliament adopted in the first reading the law “On Transparency of Foreign Influence”,
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proposed by the ruling Georgian Dream Party. It requires non-governmental organizations and media outlets that receive more than 20% of their funding from abroad to register as a “foreign power organization.” This law is very similar to the one that was adopted in Russia
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Apr 30 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1/4 @auonsson has located the russian GPS-jammer affecting Estonia's airspace. Update by @joni_askola 2/4 It is located in russia, approximately halfway to St. Petersburg from Narva, Estonia. This conclusion is supported by mapping the highest density of intersecting radio horizons of jammed aircraft on a map, and a drone-based method also reinforces this finding.
Apr 30 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
1/6 The homicide rate among russian soldiers returning from Ukraine has seen a dramatic surge. Putin is playing with fire and witnessing the consequences. Update by @joni_askola 2/6 In recent years, there has been a significant increase in the number of russian soldiers convicted of murder after returning from the frontline. In 2023, 113 active servicemen were convicted, representing an almost 900% rise from the 13 convictions in 2022.
Apr 29 • 18 tweets • 7 min read
Putin ordered that Russia should create its own analogue of X-Box or PlayStation with a cloud game server. We all know how this will end. Several more millions of funds will be stolen, a console will be brought from China, on which a Russian logo will be pasted.
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Back in December, Putin ordered a market study and instructed the Cabinet of Ministers to consider the issue of organizing Russian production of games and consoles by June 15. After this, the head of the Ministry of Digital Development, Maksut Shadayev, said that the
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Apr 29 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
1/5 Germany's reluctance to send Taurus missiles to Ukraine is increasingly untenable. Quick take by @joni_askola 2/5 Rumors suggest that both the US government and Republican circles are lacking understanding for Germany's ongoing reluctance to supply Taurus missiles. If accurate, this would imply that the US is not the primary factor behind Germany's decision not to send the missiles.
Apr 29 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
1/8 Anticipate a substantial escalation from russia in both the eastern front and through disinformation tactics in the days ahead. It is probable that russia's main offensive is already in progress in the eastern region. Take by @joni_askola 2/8 Speculations suggest that Putin aims to occupy Chasiv Yar by 'Victory Day', which is less than 2 weeks away. While this scenario is feasible, it is believed to be part of russia's strategy to make significant advancements before Ukraine's future mobilization brings results.
Apr 29 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
1/9 The acquisition of 81 outdated and inoperable Soviet jets by the US from Kazakhstan raises questions. Will these aircraft be directed to Ukraine? We shouldn't expect too much from this. Update by @joni_askola 2/9 According to the report by the Kyiv Post, the US has purchased 81 outdated Soviet-era combat aircraft from Kazakhstan at a price of less than $20,000 per unit.
Apr 28 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
1/7 Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi has issued an update, stating that the situation has deteriorated, providing specific details. The situation is challenging but not dramatic. Update by @joni_askola 2/7 In a telegram post, Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reported on the deterioration of the situation in the east. Defense forces have relocated to new positions west of Berdychiv, Semenivka, and Novomykhailivka. russia has achieved some tactical success.
Apr 28 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
1/6 Italy is supplying Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine. Great news but do not expect many. Update by @joni_askola 2/6 Italy, like many other European countries, is not always vocal about its military aid to Ukraine. While Italy may be perceived as not doing enough, it likely contributes more than what is commonly known or indicated by the statistics from the Kiel Institute.
Apr 28 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
1/12 Do not panic! Ukraine will face significant challenges in the coming months, and russian disinformation will attempt to sow panic within Ukraine and among its supporters. Analysis by @joni_askola with data from @naalsio26
2/12 russia is aware that it currently has a favorable opportunity, despite the dwindling time, as Ukraine grapples with manpower shortages, incomplete defensive lines, and a lack of ammunition and equipment.
Apr 27 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
1/5 Britain's estimate indicates that approximately 450,000 russian military personnel have been killed or wounded. Update by @joni_askola 2/5 When questioned about russian losses, Minister of State for the Armed Forces Leo Docherty stated, "Our estimation suggests that around 450,000 russian military personnel have been killed or wounded, and tens of thousands have already deserted since the conflict began."