The Russian economy is losing momentum. Sberbank chief German Gref warned that the country is entering a period of serious challenges. Speaking at the bank’s annual shareholders’ meeting, Gref pointed to military spending, inflation, and high interest rates as key factors
1/14 that will continue to weigh on the economy through 2026. He noted that loan quality is declining, and more individuals and businesses are seeking to restructure their debts. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that senior bank executives see the risk of a banking crisis within
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According to BILD, "Russia is expected to emerge stronger after the war in Ukraine, and the Kremlin is actively preparing for a potential invasion of NATO countries." While the Russian threat remains real, and it must not be dismissed — and we must indeed prepare for it — at
1/16 this stage, nearly all statements about a potential Russian attack on NATO countries are nothing more than attempts to divert NATO’s attention and resources away from the war in Ukraine. Let’s look at the facts. The so-called “grand” summer offensive in the Sumy region
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Ultimately, the main achievement of both Putin and Trump is that NATO has now committed to increasing annual defense spending to at least 5% of GDP by no later than 2035 — a level unseen since the Cold War. Previously, the target was just 2%. Some countries, like Estonia,
1/7 are already set to reach this threshold as early as next year. Spain opposed the move, but it is geographically the farthest from the main threat — Russia. At least, that’s how it seems to them. But one should not forget that Russia’s core strategy revolves around hybrid
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NATO suggests that Russia can sustain the war at its current pace until 2027. Of course, I may be accused of being sympathetic to Ukraine and having a biased opinion, but let’s look at the facts—what’s wrong with this statement? The Russian war machine currently relies on
1/18 Soviet-era equipment reserves, a large number of soldiers, and the National Wealth Fund. Let’s start with the first point. Soviet equipment reserves are almost completely depleted. The offensive on Sumy is carried out mainly through infantry assaults, and the amount of
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The appointment of Robert Brovdi, known by his call sign "Madyar," as head of the Unmanned Systems Forces of Ukraine has already yielded noticeable results, according to Russian military bloggers. They report that Ukrainian drone strikes are now primarily aimed at eliminating
1/12 Russian UAV operators. Madyar has openly declared his goal of building a "drone wall" along the entire front line and destroying up to 35,000 Russian soldiers per month—the estimated number that the Russian army can mobilize on a monthly basis. He advocates for establishing
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The war in Iran benefits Russia in the short term, but in the long run, the loss of Iran would be a major defeat for Moscow in the region, further weakening its already diminished position in the Middle East. The fall of Syria has significantly undermined Russia’s influence
1/15 there, and Iran remains its last major ally in the region. Russia is trying to squeeze every possible advantage out of this unfavorable situation. The war in Iran distracts the West and its allies from the conflict in Ukraine, but the main gain for Russia is the rise in oil
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British intelligence notes that the conflict between Israel and Iran may put Russia in a difficult position; however, the Kremlin also sees the escalation as an opportunity for its own benefit. The agency recalled that Russia has no formal obligations to provide Iran with any
1/5 military assistance in its conflict with Israel. The Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement signed between Russia and Iran in January 2025 covers cooperation in a number of areas, including defense and security, but does not include a mutual defense clause.
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Israel has demonstrated what it truly means to possess powerful air power — something Ukraine unfortunately still critically lacks. What else do Israel's strikes in the war with Iran reveal? Russia’s weakness. In January 2025, Russia signed a military cooperation agreement
1/11 with Iran, in which both sides promised mutual military support in case of "security threats." But Russia's air defense systems did not work — nor did the agreement itself. The air defenses were neutralized in advance by Mossad agents during an operation similar to Ukraine’s
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The best gift for Russia Day has been prepared by the Armed Forces of Ukraine – one million Russian army personnel neutralized. This figure does not represent the number of Russians killed, but the total losses suffered by Russia, including the wounded. The number of killed
1/13 is estimated at approximately 400,000. However, this is not a reason for joy, because behind every killed Russian there is also a killed, wounded, missing, or captured Ukrainian. Ukraine’s total losses are currently estimated at around 400,000, of which about
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The threat of "little green men" appearing in the Baltic states is becoming increasingly real amid reports of Russia preparing a hybrid operation involving unmarked soldiers, as cited by German intelligence. Vladimir Putin seems to be growing more confident that with
1/8 Donald Trump in the White House, he can test NATO’s resolve, exploit hesitation among some member states, and probe the reaction to the invocation of Article 5, hoping to sow doubt and create division within the alliance. However, the window of opportunity for such actions
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Ukraine does not strike at random or hit arbitrary targets. Every operation is a well-planned step. Last year’s series of strikes on oil depots, the drone attacks on military electronics factories in recent months, and now—carriers of long-range missiles. The list doesn’t end
1/7 with the destruction of over 20 bombers. A fuel storage facility for those bombers was also hit in Engels, and for the first time, Ukraine successfully targets Russian Iskanders before launch. They are almost impossible to intercept and extremely deadly. The principle is
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Putin responded decisively to the destruction of his air force’s aircraft—he called Trump and every possible politician in the EU. No red button—just whining that Ukraine is escalating the conflict and refusing negotiations. He also released a video accusing Ukraine of
1/12 terrorism, but notably did not mention the airfields; instead, he commented on the collapse of bridges, a story mostly overshadowed by the far more significant events. He claimed it was Ukraine that has no intention of pursuing peace talks. This narrative has been ongoing
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Anyone claiming that Russia will now deliver a powerful retaliatory strike is likely on the Kremlin's payroll. It's been three days since Ukraine's brilliant operation, and Russia's only response has been a long-range rocket attack on Sumy. I mentioned this in my previous
1/20 article, but I’ll repeat it—Russia has nothing left with which to respond. It has already thrown everything it has into the war against Ukraine. According to different sources, destroyed Russian bombers had been preparing for a new massive missile strike on civilian
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With its strike on Russia’s strategic aviation, Ukraine has shown the world that Russia’s nuclear forces—so feared in the West—can and should be destroyed. Pro-Russian commentators rushed to write about an inevitable retaliatory strike, even a nuclear one, but do you know
1/8 how Russia will really respond? It won’t. It will swallow its shame and send yet another wave of drones and missiles at peaceful Ukrainian cities. But it was doing that even before Operation “Spider Web.” Russia is already using everything it has against Ukraine and has no
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The uproar over a Ukrainian drone striking a sitting Russian soldier once again highlights how active the Kremlin’s influence network is—and how powerful its reach remains online. In the face of Russia’s ongoing daily war crimes, it's strange that this is even being debated.
1/14 Yet Kremlin agents are working tirelessly, and the rest of the sane internet is forced to explain why this wasn't a war crime. Everything happening on Ukrainian territory has one root cause: Russia’s invasion. Russia could pull out its troops and it would all stop. This
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Russia is not limiting itself to cyberattacks and acts of sabotage on EU territory—it is preparing a "Crimea scenario" in Europe. Aivo Peterson and Dmitry Rootsi, both accused of treason, began forming a civil defense unit in 2022 with the support of the Koos movement.
1/7 In the event of a crisis, this unit was intended to assume the functions of the armed forces. The organization and recruitment efforts were overseen by Russian military intelligence (GRU). In communications with associates presented by the prosecution in court, Peterson
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Trump’s two-hour phone call with Putin once again reinforced the Russian leader’s perception of Trump’s weakness. Trump flatly refuses to put any pressure on Putin and is once again expected to direct pressure at Ukraine instead. This will bring neither a ceasefire nor peace
1/8 any closer. Trump has also refused to support the EU’s sanctions against Russia and is even open to resuming trade with Moscow. Meanwhile, the EU has finally mustered the will to adopt a 17th package of sanctions against Russia. This round primarily targets Russia’s shadow
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Yesterday's incident involving an oil tanker in the Gulf of Finland once again demonstrates that Russia is a global threat—not just a threat to Ukraine. What happened? According to Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna, "Estonia exercised its right to monitor a shadow
1/16 fleet vessel, the Argent/Jaguar, which was sailing through its exclusive economic zone without a flag or insurance. This vessel is included on the UK sanctions list... Russia responded in a dangerously aggressive manner by sending a fighter jet to the ship, which also
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Putin has found himself in an interesting situation. When Europe started talking about introducing new sanctions, he decided to play the peacemaker once again and said he wanted to meet with the Ukrainian side. Western countries then decided to postpone the sanctions
1/12 — which is exactly what he was aiming for. But Zelensky chose to show the world something we here in Estonia also understand very well: Putin is not seeking peace — he can’t afford it. His entire economy is built around war. If the war ends, so does Russia. Zelensky announced
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At the conference after May 9, Putin himself announced the organization of peace talks. He wanted to once again present himself to the world as a peacemaker, but when Zelensky personally agreed to attend the meeting in Turkey, Putin suddenly changed his mind. Trump also
1/9 approved of the meeting and plans to be present, but now Russia is looking for an excuse not to attend the negotiations. Putin only wanted these talks to buy time once again, and Ukrainian intelligence provides an explanation why: “The Russian Federation is intensively
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Putin’s main air defense system arrived in Moscow for the parade — Xi Jinping — along with other guests such as Aleksandar Vučić, Robert Fico, and various African dictators, including President of the Republic of Congo Denis Sassou Nguesso, President of Zimbabwe Emmerson
1/13 Mnangagwa, and others. Ukraine has always tried to avoid collateral damage. The foreign guests are nothing more than a human shield for Putin and an attempt to convince himself and the world that he still has any political relevance. Robert Fico was particularly offended
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