The sharp rise in oil prices due to the war in Iran strongly plays into russia’s hands, as prices for russian oil grades have exceeded 100 dollars per barrel and Asian countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia and Sri Lanka are actively ordering russian
🧵 oil, increasing the likelihood that demand in the region will exceed russian supply. This is driven by the easing of US sanctions. This allows russia, despite waging an aggressive war, to improve its standing on the international stage. Along with oil contracts, russia also

Russia is facing severe budget problems and is looking for additional ways to replenish it. At a closed meeting with oligarchs held on March 26 after the congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP), Vladimir Putin stated his intention to continue
🧵 the war against Ukraine and proposed that large businesses make voluntary contributions to the budget. This was reported by The Bell citing sources familiar with the discussion. “They said, we will keep fighting,” one source summarized Putin’s remarks. “We will go to the borders

The story of internet shutdowns in Russia is not an accident and not a “temporary measure.” It is a system that has been built for years and has now simply begun to operate at full capacity. What many people saw in Moscow in March 2026 - the inability to pay a bill,
🧵 open a map, or simply send a message - has long been the norm for other regions; Moscow has simply been the last to enter this reality. The timeline is important here: back in 2019, the law on the “sovereign internet” was adopted - formally to protect against external threats,

Exports of Russian oil through Baltic Sea ports - the main channel for shipping “black gold” abroad - have been completely halted, Reuters reports citing industry sources familiar with the situation. According to them, due to a drone attack on the Leningrad region, which 🧵 became the largest since the start of the war and involved at least 60 UAVs, both Baltic ports - Primorsk and Ust-Luga - have stopped operations, and together they handle up to half of all oil exported from Russia. On the evening of March 22, Leningrad region governor

Vladimir Putin has stopped appearing at public events in the Kremlin after details emerged about a US and Israeli operation to eliminate Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. As previously reported by Financial Times, before the strike Israeli intelligence tracked Khamenei’s movements using hacked surveillance cameras. According to calculations by the outlet “Agentstvo,” the last time Putin held a public event in the Kremlin was on March 9 - a meeting on the situation in the global oil and gas market. After that, according to the

The Estonian initiative currently being discussed in the EU to ban former Russian army combatants from entering the Schengen area should become a model for others. And here is why. The issue is not only that they pose a threat to society through the risk of committing crimes -
🧵 these individuals also pose a threat to state integrity. At present, citizens from more than 120 countries and unrecognized territories are fighting on Russia’s side. The largest numbers of mercenaries come from countries such as Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Nepal

Russia’s war around Iran may provide only a temporary reprieve through higher oil prices but it cannot fix its deep economic problems - for higher oil revenues to meaningfully support the budget, prices would have to remain extremely high almost all year, which is unlikely
🧵 given global pressures to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. On this backdrop the Russian budget has already entered a crisis phase - the deficit for the first two months was about 3.5 trillion rubles against an annual plan of 3.8 trillion rubles, meaning almost the entire planned

The Baltic states and Finland are increasingly considering the use of natural landscapes as an element of defense on NATO’s eastern flank. The idea is not only to build traditional fortifications, but also to make the terrain itself less passable for a potential advancing
🧵 force. Among the measures being discussed is the restoration of bogs, peatlands and other wetlands that could serve as natural barriers for heavy vehicles and slow the movement of troops. The idea is being actively discussed in Lithuania, Latvia and Finland. For example,

Investigative journalists, together with European security services, have established that Russian leader Vladimir Putin instructed a group of political technologists and Russia’s military intelligence to interfere in Hungary’s parliamentary elections in April in order to
🧵 secure the victory of incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Putin assigned responsibility for "handling" Hungary to Sergei Kiriyenko, the first deputy head of the presidential administration, who is considered the architect of Russia’s entire infrastructure of political

Another large anti-corruption operation is underway in Ukraine. Law enforcement officers exposed the Commander of Logistics of the Ukrainian Air Force, Andrii Ukrainets, and the head of the Security Service department in Zhytomyr region, Volodymyr Kompanichenko, over
🧵 corruption during the construction of aircraft shelters. This was announced by Ukraine’s Prosecutor General Ruslan Kravchenko. "This was the largest special operation in recent years. Documentation of the criminal activity lasted about two months. The most difficult task was

In Russia, "import substitution," like many other things, has long turned not into technological development but into a convenient way to siphon off budget funds. The state allocates money for the creation of "domestic developments," after which companies take ready-made
🧵 Western solutions, slightly adapt them, and present them as their own innovations, keeping subsidies and reporting an alleged technological breakthrough. A telling example is the case of the company Newco. The Ministry of Industry and Trade attempted in court to recover

A wave of property confiscations that swept across the regions and affected officials, security officers, and judges has brought the state an amount comparable to the annual budget of a small region. In total, over the past 5-7 years, property worth 100 billion rubles has been
🧵 seized in corruption cases, Accounts Chamber auditor Andrei Baturkin reported in the State Duma. The confiscations have reached such a scale that, according to Baturkin, a “road map” is now required to coordinate the relevant agencies that will have to deal with seized companies,

Bloomberg reported, citing sources, that Greece and Malta have become the main obstacles to an EU proposal to replace the price cap on Russian oil with a ban on services necessary for transporting fuel. According to the agency’s interlocutors, the two southern European
🧵 countries raised concerns about this step at a meeting of EU ambassadors on Monday, where the latest sanctions package against Russia was presented. They warned that such a shift could affect Europe’s shipping industry and energy prices. Both countries also requested

The most unpleasant forecasts regarding the Russian economy are beginning to materialize. What analysts cautiously spoke about a year ago is now being discussed openly even by the most pro-government Russian economists: the safety margin is rapidly shrinking. While Putin talks
🧵 about “stability” and “growth,” the reality looks far more prosaic: a country that unleashed a war of aggression against Ukraine is methodically burning through its own financial system. According to estimates by Germany’s BND intelligence service, Russia’s real military spending

According to BND estimates, last year Russia’s military spending may have amounted to almost half of the state budget and around 10% of the country’s GDP. According to the German intelligence service, Russia is spending significantly more on the war and its armed forces
🧵 than it has declared in recent years. Since the start of the war against Ukraine in February 2022, Russia’s defense budget has increased sharply every year. In addition, Russia’s interpretation of “defense spending” differs significantly from the NATO definition, German

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky explained why he sharply criticized Europe at the World Economic Forum in Davos. He made these remarks during a meeting with journalists in Kyiv, according to a correspondent from European Pravda. Zelensky said he had grounds for critical
🧵 statements toward Europe after a lack of funding led to a shortage of air defense missiles, allowing Russia to strike Kyiv’s energy infrastructure. Zelensky did not deny that his speech may have sounded overly harsh from European capitals and explained this by saying that

Putin is losing the game he himself started. His bet was placed on a return to the world of the 19th and early 20th centuries - a world of empires and spheres of influence, where Europe, America, Africa, and Asia are divided among several “superpowers.” In Putin’s vision of
1/19 the world, there were supposed to be three such powers: the United States, Russia, and China. However, the real transformation of the global order is unfolding in a completely different way. The key failure is Ukraine. At the end of the fourth year of war, Russia has still
2/19

Within NATO, the possibility of conducting a special joint mission in Greenland is being considered in order to accommodate the interests of US President Donald Trump. This week, the US president once again stated that he wants Greenland. Military intervention is not being
1/8 ruled out. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen previously said that this would mean the end of the Alliance if the United States were to begin military action against her country. On Thursday morning, the 32 ambassadors of the Alliance gathered for their weekly meeting.
2/8

How the Russian system of lies is structured?

Russia has once again staged a media stunt with the story about a drone attack on Putin’s residence. In the Novgorod region no one heard air raid sirens, yet according to Lavrov, 91 drones were launched from Ukraine and all of
1/25 them were shot down. There is not a single video and not a single piece of evidence. Why is this needed? This entire performance was staged specifically for Trump. Putin personally called the American president and told him about it. Russia has long convinced Trump that it
2/25

Daily strikes by Ukrainian drones and missiles on Russian oil depots, warehouses and refineries have created an image in the information space of a “leaky” Russian air defense system. This image sharply contrasts with what Russian propaganda had been instilling in its audience🧵 for decades, namely the idea of an “impenetrable shield” capable, according to Defense Minister Andrey Belousov, of intercepting up to 97 percent of targets. The reality of a full scale war has proven far more complex. Ukraine has not managed to destroy Russian air defense as a

Seven German journalism students tracked Russian-crewed freighters lurking off the Dutch and German coast and connected them to drone swarms over military bases. Using public tracking tools, their own drones and even driving 2500 kilometers while following a ship, they produced🧵 a far more coherent picture of the Germany and Netherlands drone mystery than months of official hand-wringing and coordinated stonewalling. “Our trail leads to Russia,” the team concludes. “Not beyond doubt, but it’s currently the most probable explanation. We systematically