Thread by @StateOfUkraine

Ukrainians are understandably upset that the West would deploy forces to help Israel (not a NATO member) shoot down Iranian missiles but won't do the same for Ukraine. This help, however, comes at a great price for Israel, and carries a valuable lesson for Ukraine. 1/19

Since the early decades of its existence, when Israel was attacked by its Arab neighbors, it fought alone, just like Ukraine is now fighting alone against Russia. Both countries bought and received some weapons from other countries but no one fought alongside them. 2/19

Starting in the late 1970s, Israel became increasingly dependent on US weapons as both the reward and price of achieving a cold peace with Egypt. 3/19

At the time, Israel had its own (Kfir/Nesher) fighter jet program and it sought to be as militarily independent as possible, especially in the realm of air power, which is the backbone of Israeli security. 4/19

The peace treaty eventually led to Israel giving up domestic jet production in favor of American F-16s/F-15s. US jet manufacturers didn't want the Israeli Lavi jet competing with American F-16 exports, and the ensuing pressure forced Israel to lose even more independence. 5/19

Meanwhile, Egypt not only received the strategically important Sinai peninsula which Israel had gained in a defensive war, but it also started receiving modern American jets to replace inferior Soviet equipment. 6/19

America gained two more military clients, while subsidizing US weapons manufacturers, and Egypt did not lose any independence because, unlike Israel, it did not have a successful domestic jet program. 7/19

Most importantly, the US gained critical leverage over Israel, whose security now depends on US willingness to provide parts, munitions, and upgrades to US-manufactured Israeli jets, which are perhaps the most critical Israeli military asset (outside of nukes). 8/19

With Israel's deep dependence on American jets, the US can now easily set arbitrary limits on Israel's ability to defend itself. This has been the case for decades and the latest example is the arm-twisting by team Biden to prevent Israel from finishing off Hamas in Rafah. 9/19

Team Biden is applying similar pressure on Ukraine to prevent it from striking oil refineries in Russia. Even though US aid to Ukraine has mostly stopped, Ukrainians still hope to finally receive American weapons and have mostly heeded US warnings. 10/19

US military aid is never a gift. It's always a subsidy for US weapons manufacturers and a way of controlling friends and allies, often against their best interests. Frequently, it's a product of US domestic politics and a disservice even to American national interests. 11/19

By helping Israel shoot down Iranian missiles, the US is entrenching itself even more deeply in Israeli security considerations and gaining additional levers of control. 12/19

As a result of American assistance, Israelis are increasingly conditioned to think that they cannot survive without American help, which embeds America even more deeply into Israeli domestic politics, further undermining Israel's ability to properly defend itself. 13/19

Even though a much weaker Israel overcame much greater odds for decades without US assistance, Israeli society, from the ordinary person on the street to the PM's office, has become increasingly subservient to American whims. 14/19

Ukraine is now much more like an earlier version of Israel. It is largely alone and because it is less dependent on a single country, such as the US, it can avoid repeating the mistakes Israel made. 15/19

To maintain strategic autonomy, Ukraine will need to be more like France. As much as possible, it will need to build its own weapons, perhaps in partnership with real allies, even if that is more capital intensive (it's better for the economy). 16/19

In the long-term, avoiding US weapons would be preferable, although of course, in the short-term they are a much needed stopgap measure. Ukraine should diversify and decentralize weapons manufacturing to the maximum extent possible. 17/19

Ukraine always had a relatively advanced military-industrial complex and it should work with countries like South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, UK, France, Israel, and the Baltic and Nordic states to decouple it and its partners from US domestic politics. 18/19

The US should have done far more to help Ukraine, but if there's any silver lining in America's decline, it's that Ukraine will not only be free from Russian domination, it can also preserve independence from Russia appeasers, colluders, and cowering deescalation managers. 19/19