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Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
@TheStudyofWar
Apr 14 • 9 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
NEW | The Iranian April 13 missile-drone attack on Israel was very likely intended to cause significant damage below the threshold that would trigger a massive Israeli response. The attack was designed to succeed, not to fail. 🧵(1/9)Image
2/ The strike package was modeled on those the Russians have used repeatedly against Ukraine to great effect.

The strike consisted of approximately 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles.
3/ The drones were launched well before the ballistic missiles were fired, very likely in the expectation that they would arrive in Israel’s air defense window at about the same time as the cruise missiles and drones.
4/ The Russians have used such an approach against Ukraine repeatedly.

Only a few ballistic missiles penetrated Israeli air defenses and struck near Israeli military bases out of the 120 or so the Iranians fired.
5/ Ukrainian air defenses have averaged interception rates of only about 46% of Russian ballistic missiles during recent large strikes.
6/ The Iranians likely expected that Israeli rates would be higher than the Ukrainian rates but not above 90% against such a large ballistic missile salvo—the Russians, after all, have never fired close to that many large ballistic missiles in a single strike against Ukraine.
7/ Israel’s air defense system has several obvious advantages over Ukrainian air defense, but the full implications of some of those advantages might well have been unclear to Iranian strike planners.
8/ Ukraine has, in particular, been unable to use combat aircraft to shoot down Russian drones and cruise missiles at scale, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently observed that Kyiv will likely use the F-16s Ukraine will receive this summer in those roles.
9/ Iran will learn additional lessons from the failed attack that it can leverage to launch more successful attacks in the future.

Special Report w/ @criticalthreats: Iran’s Attempt to Hit Israel with a Russian-Style Strike Package Failed...for Now: isw.pub/IranSpecial041…Image

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More from @TheStudyofWar

Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Apr 16
NEW: The current US debate about providing additional military assistance to Ukraine is based in part on the assumption that the war will remain stalemated regardless of US actions. That assumption is false. Russian advances will accelerate absent urgent American action. 🧵(1/8)Image
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2/ The Russians are breaking out of positional warfare and beginning to restore maneuver to the battlefield because of the delays in the provision of US military assistance to Ukraine.
3/ Ukraine cannot hold the present lines now without the rapid resumption of US assistance, particularly air defense and artillery, that only the US can provide rapidly and at scale.
Read 12 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Apr 16
Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Siversk (northeast of Bakhmut), Avdiivka, and west of Donetsk City as of April 15. 🧵(1/6)


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2/ Geolocated footage published on April 9 indicates that elements of the Russian 123rd Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd Luhansk People’s Republic [LNR] Army Corps [AC]) advanced northwest of Vesele (northeast of Bakhmut and south of Siversk). Image
3/ Geolocated footage published on April 15 indicates that Russian forces advanced in central Semenivka (west of Avdiivka), and Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced in the area. Image
Read 6 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Apr 15
2/ Russian forces have experimented with cruise missile, ballistic missile, and drone strikes of varying sizes and combinations, and are now routinely conducting large, combined strikes against targets in Ukraine.
3/ Iran’s similarly large, combined strike package was far less successful than recent Russian strikes in Ukraine, however, with Israeli air defenses intercepting almost all of the roughly 320 air targets except several ballistic missiles.
4/ Iranian drones and missiles had to cross more than 1,000 kilometers of Iraqi, Syrian, and Jordanian airspace before reaching Israel, affording Israel and its allies hours to identify, track, and intercept missiles and drones on approach to Israel.
Read 8 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Apr 15
NEW | Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 14, 2024

Israel’s success in defending against large-scale Iranian missile and drone strikes from Iranian territory on April 13 underscores the vulnerabilities that Ukrainian geography and the continued degradation of Ukraine’s air defense umbrella pose for Ukrainian efforts to defend against regular Russian missile and drone strikes. (1/4)Image
2/ The exhaustion of US-provided air defenses resulting from delays in the resumption of US military assistance to Ukraine combined with improvements in Russian strike tactics have led to increasing effectiveness of the Russian strike campaign in Ukraine.
3/ Russia’s strike campaign against Ukraine demonstrates that even a limited number of successful ballistic or cruise missile strikes can cause significant and likely long-term damage to energy and other infrastructure, highlighting the need for an effective and well-provisioned air defense umbrella capable of a sustained high rate of interception.
Read 4 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Apr 14
The Russian military command likely assesses that Ukrainian forces will be unable to defend against current and future Russian offensive operations due to delays in or the permanent end of US military assistance. 🧵(1/8)
2/ Though Russian forces likely lack the ability to conduct more than one simultaneous effective large-scale operational effort as they have throughout the war, Russian forces are now able to use multiple alternating offensive efforts to stretch Ukrainian defensive capabilities amid Ukrainian artillery and air defense shortages.
3/ The current pattern of Russian offensive operations allows elements of units participating in less intensive efforts to rest and reconstitute while other units, presumably those that are more rested or those that have recently received reinforcements.
Read 8 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Apr 14
NEW: The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force launched a large-scale drone and missile attack from Iranian territory that targeted Israel from Iranian territory on April 13 - the first time Iran has targeted Israel directly from Iranian territory. (1/5)Image
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2/ Members of Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance” appear to have conducted attacks targeting Israel simultaneously with Iran’s first wave of attacks.
3/ Iran warned Israel’s partners, particularly the United States and Jordan, not to intervene in Iran’s attack against Israel.
Read 5 tweets

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