PERSISTENT ABSENCE

I’ve been scratching my head trying to figure out where this magical 440,000 figure came from which the DfE are quoting as the reduction in persistent absence…

…because that’s NOT what the official data shows!!

Read on to find out more…

🧵⬇️
Image
According to the latest DfE report, the number of persistently absent pupils decreased from:

▪️22.5% in 2021/22
= 1.64 million pupils

to

▪️21.2% in 2022/23
= 1.57 million pupils

That’s a reduction of just 70,000 pupils, NOT 440,000!

…e-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistic…
Image
The more important point that is rather glossed over here is that the persistent absence rate of 21.2% in 2022/23 is still nearly DOUBLE the pre-pandemic rate of 10.9%.

Hardly something to be boasting about! Image
But if the official DfE report states that just 70,000 fewer children have been persistently absent in 2022/23 compared to the previous year…

…why is the government quoting a reduction of 440,000 pupils, more than 6 times the official figure?!

We need to dig a little deeper… Image
Up until April 2022, an additional code was used in school registers:

▪️CODE X: “Not attending in circumstances related to COVID”.

Code X was used in the Autumn & Spring terms in 2021/22.

After April 2022, this code was no longer used for this purpose.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6329a77a…
Image
Prior to April 2022, Code X was used for children who were required to self-isolate (eg. due to close contact) but who did *not* have Covid themselves (those with Covid were recorded as Code I for illness).

Importantly: Code X is NOT counted as an absence in official figures. Image
Of course, if you include these Code X absences (which are NOT included in official figures), then the number of pupils who missed more than 10% of sessions in 2021/22 is considerably higher.

370,000 pupils higher to be exact. Image
You may notice a subtlety in the wording used here.

In the official report, they don’t describe these pupils as persistently absent, they refer to them as pupils who missed 10% or more sessions…

…because Code X absences DON’T count towards official persistent absence figures. Image
So there we are… mystery solved.

The way they arrived at the 440,000 reduction in pupils who are ‘persistently absent’ is by including Code X absences which are NOT officially counted as absences.

I don’t know about you, but this feels a little bit like cheating to me… Image
Now you may be wondering what’s causing all this persistent absence…

In 2022/23, the #1 driver of persistent absence in every age group was ILLNESS.

In fact, in primary schools, persistent absences due to ILLNESS accounted for OVER HALF of the total.

ffteducationdatalab.org.uk/2023/11/persis…
Image
In 2022/23, persistent absences were highest in Autumn:

▪️Autumn: 24.2%
▪️Spring: 20.6%
▪️Summer: 23.9%

Let’s take a closer look at what was driving persistent absences that term.

▪️12.4% of persistent absences in Autumn 2022 were solely due to ILLNESS. Image
And yet, despite this, our education leaders stubbornly refuse to acknowledge that ILLNESS is the primary driver of the attendance crisis.

The narrative always focuses on truancy, anxiety, child mental health problems, loss of routine during lockdown, etc…
Yes, these do all play a part in the bigger picture.

But this narrative completely fails to address the elephant in the room.
 
The PRIMARY driver of the high rates of pupil absence is ILLNESS, as the data clearly shows.
 
But illness never even gets so much as a mention!
The simple truth is that we now have another highly infectious respiratory virus in the mix, namely Covid-19…

…so it’s really not surprising that we have more illness absence.

The graph below illustrates this point neatly (h/t @PaulMainwood). Image
Children are not being kept at home because they’re truanting…

…they’re staying home because they are genuinely ill & the government are doing absolutely NOTHING to stop it spreading!!

Just look at the comments on this recent mumsnet thread ⬇️

mumsnet.com/talk/am_i_bein…
Biorisk consultant @brownecfm articulates it perfectly in this succinct thread:

“With Covid in a state of constant and unmitigated transmission, children will be sick more often.”

“It’s literally that obvious.”

“If you don’t address Covid, you’re not addressing the problem.”
Image
It’s little wonder so many parents are furious about the government’s irresponsible attendance campaign which actively encourages parents to send sick children to school, as covered here in iNews by @AasmaDay.

🔗 inews.co.uk/news/education…
Image
This government attendance campaign is utterly counter-productive.

By having sick kids in school, it just spreads the illness to all the other children and teachers, meaning MORE kids and teachers end up sick.

This is a more succinct way of putting it by @drsimonwilliams ⬇️
Image
‘Covid’ may have become a taboo word, but we need to face up to the inconvenient truth that it’s making our kids sick… a LOT.

‘Living with Covid’ shouldn’t mean just ignoring it.

It should mean making environments as safe as possible to reduce the risk of infection.
UK schools are generally poorly ventilated, creating perfect conditions for disease transmission, especially in winter when windows are usually closed.

A CO₂ level ~800ppm indicates good ventilation.

Below are the horrifically high CO₂ levels for a typical UK classroom.
Image
Cleaning the air by improving ventilation & air filtration is a simple, low cost, non-intrusive measure that could HUGELY reduce the spread of Covid in schools.

And it doesn’t just work for Covid - it helps reduce transmission of ALL airborne pathogens - measles, flu, RSV etc.
Clean air in schools is not a restrictive mitigation; it’s an ENABLING mitigation.

It would allow our children to attend school with less risk, less illness, less absence.

And for clinically vulnerable children, it could even be a life-saver.

There’s no downside to clean air.
There’s a mountain of evidence that improving ventilation & air filtration can hugely reduce the spread of airborne illnesses:

▪️A study conducted at Addenbrooke’s hospital showed that air filters removed almost all traces of airborne Covid virus.

cam.ac.uk/research/news/…
▪️An Italian study showed that ventilation delivering 6 air changes per hour could reduce transmission of Covid by a massive 82%.

reuters.com/world/europe/i…
Image
▪️A Swiss study demonstrated that HEPA air filters delivering a clean air delivery rate of 5 air changes per hour (800m3/h) in a typical classroom led to a 5-fold decrease in the cumulative viral dose absorbed by exposed occupants.

smw.ch/index.php/smw/…
Image
▪️A study conducted in Bradford showed that Covid-related illness absence in schools was reduced by >20% when HEPA air filters were used in classrooms.

newscientist.com/article/239871
Image
If you’d like to see more research, here’s a link to a website which has collated 56 research studies from around the world which demonstrate the effectiveness of air filters at removing Covid from the air in different settings:



H/t @CarlvKeirsbilck medium.com/@carlvank/luch…
Of course, the government have quietly invested in clean air and installed state-of-the-art air filtration systems in the Houses of Parliament, Ministry of Defence and other government buildings.

purifiedair.com/case-studies/
Image
…and the Department for Education have recently equipped themselves with brand new enhanced air handling systems at their Westminster HQ.

willmottdixoninteriors.co.uk/news/the-moder…
Image
We don’t have to worry about the water we drink, because we invest in water treatment plants which filter & clean it to a high standard.

It’s just one of those things we accept as a given.

We wouldn’t drink dirty water, so why are we breathing dirty indoor air? Image
The Mayor of London @SadiqKhan recently announced that air filters are being installed in 200 London schools.

It’s a good start, but we need to go further.

EVERY child has the right to breathe clean indoor air.

EVERY classroom should have air filters.

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan…
Image

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More from @_CatintheHat

Mar 15
Today, in honour of #LongCovidAwarenessDay, I’m sharing a series of short videos from Dr Rae Duncan (@Sunny_Rae1) about the ongoing impact of Long Covid.

1. WHAT IS LONG COVID?

Long Covid is a multi-systemic inflammatory condition that can affect almost every organ of the body.
2. WHAT ARE THE PRINCIPAL MECHANISMS & MANIFESTATIONS OF LONG COVID?

Dr Rae Duncan explains some of the key manifestations of Long Covid, including:

▪️immune-mediated issues

▪️abnormalities of the autonomic nervous system (the nerves which control things like our heart rate).
3. WHAT ARE THE MAIN SYMPTOMS OF LONG COVID?

Dr Rae Duncan discusses some of the most prevalent symptoms of Long Covid, such as fatigue and post-exertional malaise.

There are over 200 recognised symptoms of Long Covid though, so each patient may experience different symptoms.
Read 11 tweets
Feb 18
⚠️ IPC GUIDANCE

Newly-appointed Health Minister @AshleyDalton_MP has just responded to a question from MP @_Chris_Coghlan.

Chris asks when the NHS IPC manual will be updated to reflect the latest science on AIRBORNE transmission.

Let’s take a closer look at Ashley’s reply… Image
The key bit is highlighted in yellow here:

“Should new evidence emerge that warrants updates, the guidance will be reviewed & revised accordingly by NHS England & UKHSA to ensure the highest standards of infection prevention & control are maintained across healthcare settings.” Image
Well @AshleyDalton_MP, new evidence HAS emerged.

It’s not even new news as we’ve known about it since 2020!

There’s not a single credible scientist who still denies that Covid is transmitted via the AIRBORNE route.

Please listen to independent expert witness Prof Beggs here ⬇️
Read 27 tweets
Feb 13
“WHY ARE YOU STILL MASKING?”

The folks at the @TheWHN have put together a really excellent set of science-based answers to various questions about why you’re still wearing a mask.

(Even if you’re not still masking, you might be interested in the answers).

Let’s take a look…🧵 Image
1. “Isn’t the pandemic over?”

Short Answer: The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the emergency phase over, but that doesn’t mean the pandemic itself has ended.

(h/t @TheWHN) Image
2. “But you’re not high-risk, so why bother wearing a mask?”

Short Answer: Because preventing transmission matters for everyone, not just people in vulnerable groups.

(h/t @TheWHN) Image
Read 12 tweets
Jan 30
I’ve been reflecting on this letter from Minister @GwynneMP ⬇️

The letter which says the government supports Dr Lisa Ritchie’s view that “Covid is not predominantly transmitted through the airborne route”.

I suspect there may be a little more to it than meets the eye… 🧐

/1 Image
You see, here’s the thing:

Letters like that don’t get written in a vacuum.

Letters like that are usually drafted on behalf of Ministers by a civil servant who has expertise in the subject matter.

So I’m left wondering: who drafted it?

Who is advising Mr Gwynne?

/2
Dr Ritchie’s testimony at the Covid Inquiry has been widely criticised as her views conflicted so starkly with scientific evidence presented by independent experts like Prof Beggs.

So it seems odd that the letter is written in a way which so emphatically supports her stance.

/3
Read 24 tweets
Jan 19
UK COVID INQUIRY

In this video, I’ve compiled crucial evidence from expert witness Prof Clive Beggs where he confirms:

🔎 Covid is airborne
🔎 Covid is predominantly spread via airborne aerosols (not droplets)
🔎 Breathing & talking generate significant amounts of aerosols.
Here’s a little more detail from Prof Beggs’ testimony where he again confirms that the BULK of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is carried in the small airborne aerosols, NOT in the larger droplets which rapidly fall to the ground.

This is CRUCIAL for infection control purposes.
@CliveBeggs The role of those in charge of infection control in hospitals is to “translate scientific evidence […] into practical IPC guidelines”.

The scientific evidence is clear that Covid is AIRBORNE…

…so why does the IPC guidance STILL not protect against airborne transmission?
Read 10 tweets
Jan 14
As Module 4 of the @CovidInquiryUK begins, attention turns to the Covid vaccines…

And it just happens that UKHSA’s annual accounts for 2023/24 have recently been published, revealing that a staggering £1.09 BILLION were wasted on unused vaccines during 2023/24.

🧵 Image
For me, one of the most shocking things was in Autumn 2023, when the govt bought enough vax doses for ALL over-50s…

…but then decided to restrict eligibility, denying millions of people under the age of 65 the chance to be protected.

theguardian.com/society/2023/a…Image
The reason given for restricting vaccine eligibility was because it would not be “cost-effective” to offer it more widely.

However, a detailed analysis of their ‘bespoke cost-effectiveness analysis’ revealed a number of flaws in the methodology ⬇️

Read 31 tweets

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