NEW: The current US debate about providing additional military assistance to Ukraine is based in part on the assumption that the war will remain stalemated regardless of US actions. That assumption is false. Russian advances will accelerate absent urgent American action. 🧵(1/8)
2/ The Russians are breaking out of positional warfare and beginning to restore maneuver to the battlefield because of the delays in the provision of US military assistance to Ukraine.
3/ Ukraine cannot hold the present lines now without the rapid resumption of US assistance, particularly air defense and artillery, that only the US can provide rapidly and at scale.
4/ Lack of air defense has exposed Ukrainian front-line units to Russian aircraft that are now dropping thousands of bombs on Ukrainian defensive positions for the first time in this war.
5/ Ukrainian artillery shortages are letting the Russians use armored columns without suffering prohibitive losses for the first time since 2022.
6/ The Russians are pressing their advantage and advancing slowly but steadily on several sectors of the front. Since the beginning of this year, Russian forces have seized over 360 square kilometers - an area the size of Detroit.
7/ Russian advances will accelerate absent urgent American action. US policymakers must internalize the reality that further delaying or stopping American military assistance will lead to dramatic Russian gains later in 2024 and in 2025 and, ultimately, to Russian victory.
8/ Special Report: America’s Stark Choice in Ukraine and the Cost of Letting Russia Win isw.pub/AmericasChoice…
9/ From November:
https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1724819553601957957
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