Thread by @emilkastehelmi

One of the most significant current battles in Ukraine is taking place in the small city of Chasiv Yar.

In this thread, I will analyze the current situation, defensive preparations, terrain, participating units, various scenarios and future developments. 1/

Chasiv Yar is an important city. It’s the last somewhat larger built area before the crucial crossroads town of Kostiantynivka and other important cities in Donetsk. Encircling the city is difficult, as the Donets-Donbas canal forms a difficult obstacle for mechanized units. 2/

Ukraine has constructed several layers of trenches and other defensive positions north and south of Chasiv Yar. Even if the Russians managed to cross the canal at some point, they would still need to break through multiple fortified positions to seriously threaten the area. 3/

In addition to the canal and fortifications, Chasiv Yar's terrain poses more challenges for the enemy. The area is dotted with small water bodies, fields and some industrial zones. The city is also located on a higher ground. 4/

At the moment, Russia has already entered the eastern edges of the city, known as Kanal. The buildings in the area can provide relatively good defensive positions. However, the defenders must be supplied through open terrain and over the canal, which can become an issue. 5/

The forests and other covered areas provide shelter for the defenders, but they also come with some difficulties. It allows the Russians to conduct infantry attacks with their so-called infiltration tactics. Such actions have been observed in similar terrain before. 6/

This means the Russians will persistently try to attrit the defender by throwing infantry detachments in these “corridors”, in order to find exploitable cracks, while also pressuring Ukrainians elsewhere in the city. If success is achieved, it will also be reinforced. 7/

Because of these aforementioned reasons, keeping the Kanal can be tricky. The Russians can try to cut the supply routes by infiltrating the Ukrainian defences from the north, and the terrain makes heavier counterattacks supported by armored vehicles difficult. 8/

Holding these dense and covered areas requires more troops. AFU must have reserves ready, so that any possible gaps can be quickly filled. This can be difficult for the Ukrainian brigades, which are not fighting in full strength. Russia has plenty of expendable manpower. 9/

It’s possible the battle of Chasiv Yar won’t consume Russian vehicles as severely as the operations in other directions, like in Terny, Novomykhailivka or the fields west of Avdiivka. Available data has not shown as extreme equipment losses in this direction. 10/

Because of the recent heavy losses elsewhere, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Russia wanted to switch to more infantry-based action in Chasiv Yar, as the terrain and Ukrainian artillery ammo shortages would also enable it.

Next, let's see which units are fighting in the area. 11/

Russians likely have elements of the following units in Chasiv Yar:

98th Guards Airborne Division
11th Guards Air Assault Brigade
4th, 85th and 200th Motorized rifle brigades
Some additional regiments from other units and also territorial/reserve regiments

12/

The Sever-V brigade is likely in the area. The "Terek" Cossack brigade may also be present. The actual size of these units is unclear.

It’s important to note that when I’m saying “elements” of certain units, it means the whole unit isn’t necessarily fighting there. 13/

Ukrainian units in the Chasiv Yar direction:

Elements of 42th, 56th, 67th, 92nd and 93rd Mechanized brigades
112th Territorial Defence brigade
Possibly 5th Assault brigade as a reserve force

Possibly elements of other units too, like the 17th Tank Brigade and 114th TDF.

14/

However, many Ukrainian brigades are suffering from a shortage of men, which may explain the current positioning on a relatively short front. There’s no indication that the Russians would be experiencing the same issue, at least not in the same magnitude. 15/

Still, actual breakthroughs are rare and the Ukrainians are still able to fight a defensive battle. Even if the Russians manage to eventually push through Chasiv Yar, it doesn’t mean they will automatically gain a significant strategic victory in Donetsk. 16/

It took the Russians almost a year to advance about 5-6 kilometres from Bakhmut to the eastern parts of Chasiv Yar. However, Ukraine is in a worse situation than before, and multiple scenarios are possible. If Russia wants to capture large areas in Donetsk, the time is now. 17/

If Ukraine manages to hold Chasiv Yar, it will make the Russian political goals significantly more difficult. There aren’t any shortcuts towards the “belt of cities” between Kostiantynivka and Kramatorsk, so a failed offensive here means a more difficult grind somewhere else. 18/

Our team at @Black_BirdGroup continues to map and analyse the war, as we’ve already done for almost 800 days.

I’ve been a bit busy lately so I haven’t been posting as much, but our interactive map is of course updated almost daily. 19/19

scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-…