Thread by @GLNoronha

1 - There’s a memo floating around some Hill offices with serious claims about weapons going to Ukraine – the thesis being that if the US keep giving them weapons, WE will quickly run out ourselves.

Putting my Hill staffer hat back on, a brief THREAD examining the claims. 🧵

2 – The chief concern raised is that Ukraine’s consumption of PAC-3 missile interceptors and 155mm artillery shells far outpaces US production rates.

The memo argues that we then curtail U.S. support & suggests we broker a deal to preserve our weapons for the Indo-Pacific.

Few other important claims:

1. Key stockpiles are depleted & require 3-5 years to replenish if we stopped sending weapons to Ukraine.

2. Supplying Ukraine won’t leave us enough weapons for the Indo-Pacific.

3. DoD said it was risky to draw down weapons without replacing them.

4- Let me go with that last one first.

The claim didn’t come from a military officer – it came from Hillary Clinton/Kamala staffer Sabrina Singh, now the political commissar at DoD’s press shop, who was just trying to guilt trip Republicans for not passing the Dem supplemental.

5- That claim hasn’t been repeated by any senior military leader.

In fact, it HAS been contradicted by our INDOPACOM commander, as I tweeted about months ago, who said DoD could support Ukraine and “not miss a beat” in INDOPACOM.

https://twitter.com/GLNoronha/status/1753154553673912439

6- The biggest problem is with the memo's claims that Ukraine is firing 160 PAC-3s and 4-7 million 155mm rounds per year.

While exact numbers are classified, DOD officials are saying those numbers are not even close – orders of magnitude wrong. The math doesn’t add up.

7- Another issue with these claims is they presuppose all Ukraine’s needs have to come from the United States.

According to senior natsec officials I've talked to, 70% of all artillery systems and 84% of mid/long-range air defense systems were donated by OTHER allies/partners.

8- On 155mm rounds, Europe is actually working to hit production targets of 1.4 million rounds/ year at EOY, while we’re going to 1M rounds/year.

It should be much higher, but the depletion/production ratio is much better than claimed.
defenseone.com/business/2023/…

9- Also the European Commission announced it is working to increase their industrial production capacity up to 2M 155mm shells/year soon.

Our NATO allies have the capacity to help address artillery needs and are doing so.

10- On PAC-3 Patriot production, we lead production, but Germany, Romania, Spain, and the Dutch are working to purchase more missiles from a new German production line.

Japan is building PAC-2 & PAC-3 missiles through Mitsubishi and will give us many of them.

11- The memo is also selective with the munitions analyzed. Ukraine isn’t just fighting with 155mm rounds and defending with PAC-3 missiles.

Ex: Europe is giving IRIS-T and NASAMS interceptors. DoD is working a low-cost air defense interceptor, VAMPIRE.
greydynamics.com/vampires-in-uk…

12- We also have other air defense interceptor stocks in good supply like AIM-9 missiles, AMRAAMs, and we’re building up Iron Dome Tamir interceptor production in Arkansas.

US + Israel will be able to build 7-10k Tamir interceptors/year soon!

13- The analysis crucially omits the MASSIVE stockpile of 155mm cluster munitions (that Team Biden fought so hard to block from Ukraine until the GOP bullied them into finally sending).

These cluster shells do the work of 4-5 regular 155mm shells, according to my Army friends.

14- The premise of the memo is that sending these weapons hurts us in the Indo-Pacific.

But the memo focuses on only 155mm and PAC-3, and ignores the list of munitions our INDOPACOM commander has said are most important for the China fight (see next tweet):

15- Key munitions according to INDOPACOM are:

LRASM/JASSM, SM-6, SM-3, THAAD, Mk48 torpedoes, PrSM Inc 2, Tomahawks, JSM, NSM, Naval mines, and AMRAAM.

There is some overlap with Ukraine needs on munitions. PAC-3 is one of them, which is why we’re increasing production.

16- Yes, we should be at higher production rates to meet Ukrainian requirements, but the reality is that Ukraine is always going to have very aspirational numbers of munitions they want.

Like all good bureaucrats, you ask for the most you can, but you can operate with less.

17- The good news is that as we offload munitions to Ukraine, we’re actually building more modern rounds.

The beauty of drawing down our stocks to Ukraine is that we’re able to replace them with more capable munitions. Ex: if we send PAC-2 missiles, we rebuild w/ PAC-3s.

18/END- None of this thread should detract from the vital importance of ACTUALLY bolstering our industrial base and munitions production rates.

To do that, we need to build up the defense industrial base, which takes time, money, long-term contracts, and predictable funding.

Correction to tweet #6 / it should read 160 PAC-3s per MONTH (or 1920/year). My bad!