NEW: The US House of Representatives passed a supplemental appropriations bill on April 20 providing for roughly $60 billion of assistance to Ukraine. The bill must now be passed by the Senate and signed by the president before aid can begin to flow. 🧵(1/5)
2/ These requirements and the logistics of transporting US materiel to the frontline in Ukraine will likely mean that new US assistance will not begin to affect the situation on the front line for several weeks.
3/ The frontline situation will therefore likely continue to deteriorate in that time, particularly if Russian forces increase their attacks to take advantage of the limited window before the arrival of new US aid.
4/ Ukrainian forces may suffer additional setbacks in the coming weeks while waiting for US security assistance needed to stabilize the front, but they will likely be able to blunt the current Russian offensive assuming the resumed US assistance arrives promptly.
5/ The threat of an operationally significant Russian advance in the coming weeks remains, but Ukraine may have more latitude to take short-term risks w/ dwindling supplies to prevent such an advance once it knows that more materiel will be arriving soon. isw.pub/UkrWar042024
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