🧵 Outstanding points made by @RepMcCormick in a hearing 2 weeks ago.
1. The war in Ukraine is obviously winnable.
2. Ukrainian victory is in the U.S.’s strategic security and economic interests.
3. The U.S. isn’t sending what Ukraine needs to win.
1/n
McCormick would know. He spent 20 years in the military, reaching the rank of commander in the Navy. He also was a helicopter pilot in the MarinesC and served in Africa, Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf. He’s also an ER doc, which checks out 🤣
2/n
@RepMcCormick asked whether the war is winnable to @US_EUCOM Supreme Allied Commander Gen. Cavoli, “which is the coolest title ever.”
Cavoli unequivocally answers “yes, with our Ukrainian colleagues.”
@RepMcCormick McCormick agrees. But,
“What’s being supplied is ‘adequate.’ I don’t like that word, ‘adequate.’”
“The U.S. has a GDP of $25-27 trillion. Add Europe? $45 trillion. Russia’s GDP is $1.7 trillion.”
“This shouldn’t be a contest!”
4/n
@RepMcCormick “We’re slow-rolling our support… the idea that we can’t win this war is insane. We outnumber them dramatically.” 👏
“We also continue to hold up aid in Congress, which drives me crazy.”
5/n
@RepMcCormick I’d disagree Ukraine is a third world country, but this point stands:
“Ukraine, with a GDP of $200 billion, has taken out 50% of Russia’s armor and inflicted 350,000 casualties.” (And a lot of that armor is from Cold War era defense stock!)
“That’s success by my measures.”
@RepMcCormick “How do we expect them to succeed if we don’t give them surge capabilities?”
He says we needed surge ops in Iraq and Afghanistan, and we’re the strongest military in the world.
“We can’t give them adequate. We need superiority.”
No one is talking about this!”
7/n
@RepMcCormick Then he shifts to Ukraine’s strategic importance. Ukraine has:
“No one is talking about the economic impact of giving this to our enemies.”
Celeste Wallander, Undersecretary of Defense, agrees.
8/n
@RepMcCormick Third point: “we gave our word.” This is really underplayed IMO. Our word means everything. We can’t give our word and then let Ukraine flounder. Imagine what our enemies will think.
“We gave our word not once, but many times.”
@RepMcCormick “Reagan, at the 40th anniversary of D-Day, said isolationism is a failed policy.” 💯
“NATO was specifically designed for an expansionist, Marxist government.”
“The time to stand is now.”
10/n
“It’s a winnable war and strategically important for the future of the world.”
E.g., we “need to increase our food stores by 50% by 2050. And our natural resources, for us and our allies.”
Ukraine must win if we’re going to remain safe and prosperous!
👏 @RepMcCormick.
11/11.
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$4.888B - Army
$0.997B - Navy
$0.069B - Marine Corps
$0.371B - Air Force
$0.009B - Space Force
$27.931B - General Defense
• Includes $13.772B for USAI, of which ~$300M is used for replenishment, refurbishment, and repair
The House is voting now on H.Res. 149 - Condemning the Illegal Abduction of Children from Ukraine to the Russian Federation. Under Suspension of the Rules, it requires 2/3 majority to pass. It will pass - there are already 360+ votes.
Look at the Polish responses to this post. Most are positive and understanding. Agriculture accounts for just 2.1% of Poland’s GDP. By comparison, it’s 0.96% of the U.S.’s economy and 8.2% (!) of Ukraine’s economy.
USAID estimates that agriculture accounts for 20% of GDP, 40% of Ukraine’s exports, and 17% of the workforce. Russia caused an estimated $6.6 billion in agricultural sector damage, which is ongoing.
Polish farmers’ dumping grain and blockading Ukraine’s borders is criminal.
However, the EU needs to increase its support for its farmers, especially in Poland and Slovakia (Hungary shouldn’t receive any EU subsidies). The first step is banning Russian agro imports.
Trump must come up with $661,502,661 at a MINIMUM within the next 30 days to stop enforcement of two judgments against him (E Jean Carroll I & NY Civil Fraud).
If he doesn’t pay, plaintiffs can start seizing his assets.
I had a beautiful thread and Twitter refused to post it. Thanks Elmo.
I caveated this by saying Trump doesn't lose his appeal rights if he doesn't pay. Just that he can't stay the enforcement of the order while his appeals are pending.
On February 8, a federal judge entered the judgment in this defamation and sexual assault case. Confusingly, this is known as E Jean Carroll I (it concluded after E Jean Carroll II). He has 30 days -- or until March 9 -- to post a bond of 111%. That's $92,463,000.
The prejudgment *interest* is killer, if I’m calculating it correctly. 9% per annum interest. The calculation is judgment amount x 0.09 / year 365 days/year x days of interest owed + leap year days.
There are three judgments against him, with pre-judgment interest starting on different dates.
1. $168,040,168 starting March 4, 2019. Judgment = $168,040,168 + ($168,040,168 x 0.09/365 x 1806 days) = $168,040,168 (civil penalty) + $74,830,818.90 (pre-judgment interest) = $242,870,986.
Don Jr and Eric Trump were both slapped with their own individual penalties:
Each has to pay $4,013,024 (civil penalty) + $640,215 (prejudgment interest starting May 11, 2022) = $4,653,239.
Allan Weisselberg has to pay $1,000,000 (civil penalty) + $99,616 (prejudgment interest starting Jan 23, 2023) = $1,099,616.
Total monetary damages awarded to the state = $453,242,598 + ($4,653,239 x 2) + $1,099,616 = $463,830,692.
In order to appeal the E Jean Carroll (1) judgment, he has to put up 110% of the judgment or $91,630,000 by 3/9/2024. He already put up $5,550,000 in cash for the E Jean Carroll (2) appeal.
In order to appeal the NYS judgment, he’ll need to put up the judgment + 9% per annum. Assuming appeals take 2 years, let’s go with 120% of the judgment. He has to put up $544,159,240. He has 30 days from the date the judgment is ordered, which the AG will move to do swiftly.
In sum, in the next month, he’ll need to put up $635,789,240.
🚨 Elon Musk’s Trumpist turn might have a greater motive than we previously thought.
The magnanimous @AnnMLipton, business law professor at Tulane, found a little nugget nestled in an SEC filing with a federal court. It hasn’t been widely reported on.
The SEC appears to be investigating Musk for his Twitter acquisition. The SEC is a civil enforcement body; it can’t prosecute people. But it certainly can refer cases to the U.S. Attorney’s Office.
I’m not a lawyer, and I know insider trading laws are super complicated. But it appears the SEC is investigating Musk for violations of 15 U.S.C § 78j (no surprise) AND 18 U.S.C § 1348.
§ 1348 is a big boy crime. Look at the language of the SEC filing and the § 1348 statute.