🧵 Lipetsk, Russia.

Ukraine sent what appears to be a large number of UAVs (unconfirmed what actually was sent) to the airbase there.

An ammunition depot was hit, and local residents recorded the sounds of planes leaving the airbase.

1/





2/ This isn’t a run-of-the-mill airbase, though. This is home to the 4th State Center for Aircrew Training and Field Tests.

From 2016 to December 2022(?) Lt. Gen. Yuri Sushkov was in charge of training pilots on MiG and Su fighter bombers.

According to Kommersant, he retired.

🧵 Did a little digging on Victoria Pinchuk.

1. Like many Western billionaires, he launders his reputation by donating prolifically to influential charities and organizations (Gates, Clinton, Kyiv School of Economics), and documenting Russian war crimes.

https://twitter.com/robbiegramer/status/1819850273264632218

2. However, he is currently selling critical wheels for Russian railway cars to Russia. As @Prune602 so thoroughly documents, railways are the lifeblood of Russian logistics, and their trains are in disrepair.

He’s also declaring their customs value at 0.1% of the true price.

1/ AiM propaganda has Americans at each other’s throats. And the media’s failure to account for it buries one important aspect of the Russia-China axis to go underreported:

Ukraine, a fellow democracy, has trillions in mineral riches.

2/ Ukraine supplies 90% of the neon needed to make advanced semiconductors in the U.S.

90%! And it’s the 5th largest gallium producer.

Our economy runs on oil and computers.

And our future economy will run on renewable energy. That takes beryllium, uranium, and lithium.

1/ I focus on Crimea (Qırım) quite a bit. Catherine II annexed the peninsula in 1783, and created mythology around how it’s “naturally Russian.”

If the occupation of Qırım becomes untenable for Russia, the war is over. The Russian elites and population can’t accept losing it. 2/ Ukraine knows this. In the past month, I’ve seen a steady uptick in disinfo ops from both the Russian and Ukrainian sides. For example, Russia purported a radio in Kerch was hacked and played Ukrainian songs. (This is false).

🔥Mutiny!

Crimean resistance group Atesh reports Cuban 🇨🇺 mercenaries killed their Russian commander due to “constant humiliation, beatings, and nonpayment of wages” in Donetsk.

Russia is the colonizer it says 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇬🇧 🇫🇷 🇩🇪 are.

1/

https://twitter.com/atesh_eng/status/1784272688220913855

Russia has recruited 10,000s impoverished men from India, Ghana, Cameroon, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Jordan, Iraq, China, Serbia, France, and other countries by promising $2,000/month.

☠️ Their survival is measured in hours, not days.

There’s an endless supply.

2/

🧵 Outstanding points made by @RepMcCormick in a hearing 2 weeks ago.

1. The war in Ukraine is obviously winnable.

2. Ukrainian victory is in the U.S.’s strategic security and economic interests.

3. The U.S. isn’t sending what Ukraine needs to win.

1/n McCormick would know. He spent 20 years in the military, reaching the rank of commander in the Navy. He also was a helicopter pilot in the MarinesC and served in Africa, Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf. He’s also an ER doc, which checks out 🤣

2/n

🧵 If you have time, listen to this episode of #ShieldoftheRepublic podcast.

It is *imperative* that this Ukraine aid bill passes. I’d argue the most important aspect of the bill requires naïve bureaucrats like @JakeSullivan46 to submit a *strategy* for Ukrainian victory.

1/n Co-host @EliotACohen just got back from Ukraine and Poland, and had a conversation with Eric Edelman. I felt seen.

“I’m deeply ashamed that we were letting these people down because of some stupid, stupid, blind, selfish, uninformed, Republican congressmen.”

2/n

Ukraine Supplemental 🧵

1. Personnel:
$207M - Army
$3.5M - Marines
$23M - Air Force
$4M - Space Force

https://twitter.com/gaudetterob/status/1780641610910269581

2. Operations and Maintenance

$4.888B - Army
$0.997B - Navy
$0.069B - Marine Corps
$0.371B - Air Force
$0.009B - Space Force
$27.931B - General Defense
• Includes $13.772B for USAI, of which ~$300M is used for replenishment, refurbishment, and repair

Subtotal: $34.265B

The House is voting now on H.Res. 149 - Condemning the Illegal Abduction of Children from Ukraine to the Russian Federation. Under Suspension of the Rules, it requires 2/3 majority to pass. It will pass - there are already 360+ votes.

There are 9 “no” votes 👀. 384-9.

Look at the Polish responses to this post. Most are positive and understanding. Agriculture accounts for just 2.1% of Poland’s GDP. By comparison, it’s 0.96% of the U.S.’s economy and 8.2% (!) of Ukraine’s economy.

statista.com/topics/11324/a…

https://twitter.com/tatarigami_ua/status/1763281508947648808

USAID estimates that agriculture accounts for 20% of GDP, 40% of Ukraine’s exports, and 17% of the workforce. Russia caused an estimated $6.6 billion in agricultural sector damage, which is ongoing.

usaid.gov/news-informati…

🧵 How screwed is Trump?

Trump must come up with $661,502,661 at a MINIMUM within the next 30 days to stop enforcement of two judgments against him (E Jean Carroll I & NY Civil Fraud).

If he doesn’t pay, plaintiffs can start seizing his assets.

I had a beautiful thread and Twitter refused to post it. Thanks Elmo.

I caveated this by saying Trump doesn't lose his appeal rights if he doesn't pay. Just that he can't stay the enforcement of the order while his appeals are pending.

Total judgment against Trump.
$453,424,598!

The prejudgment *interest* is killer, if I’m calculating it correctly. 9% per annum interest. The calculation is judgment amount x 0.09 / year 365 days/year x days of interest owed + leap year days.

There are three judgments against him, with pre-judgment interest starting on different dates.

1. $168,040,168 starting March 4, 2019. Judgment = $168,040,168 + ($168,040,168 x 0.09/365 x 1806 days) = $168,040,168 (civil penalty) + $74,830,818.90 (pre-judgment interest) = $242,870,986.

2. $126,828,600 starting May 11, 2022.
Judgment = $126,828,600 (civil penalty) + $20,233,505 (prejudgment interest) = $147,062,105.

3. $60,000,000 starting June 26, 2023. Judgment = $60,000,000 (civil penalty) + $3,491,507 (prejudgment interest) = $63,491,507.

Total against Trump = $453,424,598.

But wait, there’s more! Don Jr and Eric Trump were both slapped with their own individual penalties:

Each has to pay $4,013,024 (civil penalty) + $640,215 (prejudgment interest starting May 11, 2022) = $4,653,239.

Allan Weisselberg has to pay $1,000,000 (civil penalty) + $99,616 (prejudgment interest starting Jan 23, 2023) = $1,099,616.

Total monetary damages awarded to the state = $453,242,598 + ($4,653,239 x 2) + $1,099,616 = $463,830,692.

🚨 Elon Musk’s Trumpist turn might have a greater motive than we previously thought.

The magnanimous @AnnMLipton, business law professor at Tulane, found a little nugget nestled in an SEC filing with a federal court. It hasn’t been widely reported on. The SEC appears to be investigating Musk for his Twitter acquisition. The SEC is a civil enforcement body; it can’t prosecute people. But it certainly can refer cases to the U.S. Attorney’s Office.

🧵Putin is spending $1.6B on propaganda.

In fact, it's why we're contacting our Senators and Representatives in Congress to vote for something so obviously in U.S. interests.

It's way past time we talk about it. Buckle up for this Mirror Propaganda 101 crash course.

/1 You might have heard the phrase, “accuse your enemy of that which you are guilty.”

It’s often attributed to Hitler’s chief propagandist, Joseph Goebbels. But as far as I could find, he never actually said it.

/2

🧵 Ukraine supporters of Twitter! Update. Your calls, emails, and letters WORKED. I’m quite optimistic, but you cannot let up on the emails and phone calls, for reasons I’ll explain.

60 votes were needed to move forward. All 47 Democrats plus 2 out of 3 independents who caucus with the Dems voted to move forward with the bill. (49 votes).

The 8 Republicans who voted to advance the bill on Tuesday night were:

Collins - ME
Kennedy - LA
McConnell - KY
Moran - KS
Murkowski - AK
Romney - UT
Tillis - NC
Young - Indiana

(58 votes)

On Wednesday, 9 more Republicans voted to advance the bill(!)

Capito - WV
Cassidy - LA
Cornyn - TX
Ernst - IA
Grassley - IA
Rounds - SD
Sullivan - AK
Thune - SD
Wicker - MS

That brought the advancement vote well above the threshold needed. 67-32.

Sanders (Vermont) was still a “no.” 🤬 Not a surprise to me. He had a fascination with the USSR and visited Russia several times. He’s concerned about human rights in Gaza, but can bring it up for an amendment during debate.

I’ve color-coded a spreadsheet. Pink = Republicans who changed their mind. Contact them, thank them, and encourage them to pass the final bill. Contact Senator Sanders as well to cajole him. It’s unacceptable. He needs a strong Democratic opponent in the general election — he’s up this year. /1

There’s confusion about what happened earlier this week. Two bills were considered. The Lankford bill that combined foreign aid with funding to secure the U.S. border, and the “standalone” foreign aid bill.

The Senate voted down the Lankford bill and moved forward with the foreign aid bill. /2

🧵 85% of the KGB budget during the late Soviet Union was spent on disinformation operations. KGB agents’ annual review accounted for how many fake news stories they created and successfully propagated. The goal was to use freedom of speech to undermine enemies (i.e. the U.S.) In the 1980s, the KGB used the Indian newspaper “the Patriot” to claim that the U.S. invented HIV. They then paid two East German virologists to publish a paper in an academic journal supposedly proving the allegation. It ended up on the nightly news with Dan Rather.