Russian Oligarchs' Role in Drone Manufacturing and Sanction Evasion: Investigating sanctions evasion with exclusive documents and email correspondence.
đź§µThread exposing manipulation, cover-ups, and state aid to evade sanctions revealed through leaked documents and emails:
2/ Russian companies aiding military production may not be easily discernible. Consider RusAgro, which presents itself solely as a major agricultural player, owned by sanctioned oligarch Vadim Moshkovich. Another key figure is Maxim Basov - its CEO. Keep these names in mind
3/ In addition to their association with RusAgro, Maxim Basov and Vadim Moshkovich co-founded a company called AssistAgro in 2021. Both RusAgro and AssistAgro have been subject to sanctions from both the US and Ukraine.
4/ When the invasion of Ukraine by Russia began and sanctions were imposed on oligarchs, some of them made attempts to alter the nominal ownership of companies.
5/ Public registries indicate that AssistAgro owners Maxim Basov and Vadim Moshkovich were replaced by new owners, including Ilya Voronkov, linked to Albatros. Albatros LLC is sanctioned by several countries for producing reconnaissance drones for Russia, as per Swiss SECO.
6/The drones produced by Albatros were delivered and utilized in Eastern Ukraine against Ukrainian forces during combat operations. Furthermore, this assertion can be independently confirmed through video evidence, which has been published by Russian sources themselves.
7/ The ties between these individuals and companies go beyond ownership changes. Through accessing hundreds of emails, we've uncovered correspondence among members deliberating on drone-related issues. Discussions involve representatives from RusAgro, AssistAgro, and Albatros.
8/ The discussion revolves around testing and issues related to UAVs, accompanied by photos, which further substantiates that these companies are not only linked by common founders but also by collaboration in drone production.
9/ With that information in mind, let's revisit Maxim Basov. On 09.06.2022, Maxim Basov contacted Elvira Nabiullina, the Head of the Central Bank of Russia, asking for the transfer of financial assets from his Cyprus-based company to his own name to evade sanctions.
10/ The proposed scheme: The Cyprus company RIGPA LIMITED, owned by Maxim Basov, transfers 54M Rus AGRO depositary receipts, held at brokerage Renaissance Securities, to Basov himself, enabling their use in Russia and avoiding the risk of asset seizure in Cyprus.
11/ On the 22nd of August, he receives a rejection letter from the Central Bank, explaining why his requested actions are not applicable to his specific case.
12/ On October 26, 2022, Basov sent another request, reaching out to Minister of Agriculture Dmitry Patrushev. The name may sound familiar, as he is the son of Nikolai Patrushev, former FSB director and head of the Russian Security Council - one of Putin's staunchest allies.
13/ The balance document issued by Renaissance Broker on February 10, 2023, indicates that the Rus Agro (Ros Agro PLC) depositary receipts are registered under his name - Maxim Basov. This suggests that he successfully transferred them from RIGPA Limited to himself
14/ In August 2022, Basov worked with UBS Bank (Switzerland) - specifically with Victoria Sokolova and Ruslan Katov. Victoria sought Basov's input on a KYC statement regarding his connection to sanctioned Vadim Moshkovich. Basov claimed that he was not his business partner
15/It's a clear fabrication, given that Basov served as CEO at RusAgro under Moshkovich until 2021 and co-founded another company, AssistAgro, with him. Furthermore, in a May 2022 letter to Nabiullina, Basov identified himself as the Chairman of the Board of Directors of RusAgro
16/ In another request addressed to the Deputy Minister of Finances, Alexey Moiseev, written in October of 2022, Basov asks to help with his efforts to mitigate the risk of sanctions being imposed on depositary receipts of Rus Agro, and he also links this to oligarch Moshkovich
17/ We also noted that Basov was corresponding with an employee of Russian origin to address this issue at UBS Bank. Upon conducting an additional check, we discovered interesting information. According to the Delta Executive Search post, Victoria Sokolova, to quote:
18/ ...has over 20 years of experience in Corporate and Investment Banking... as a top ranked Equity Research analyst in London and more recently as part of the oligarch coverage team at Sberbank CIB
19/ Based on UBS sale documents issued to Rigpa Limited - Maxim’s offshore company registered in Cyprus, it's evident he continued operating via UBS in 2023. This suggests he likely passed the KYC process, despite affiliations and direct involvement with sanctioned entities.
20/ Documentary evidence unequivocally shows the involvement of Maxim Basov, Vadim Moshkovich, and Ilya Voronkov enterprise in drone manufacturing activities, concealed under the guise of existing agricultural enterprises. Not only have they taken proactive steps to evade potential asset seizures through associations, but it appears that Maxim Basov also lied during the KYC process, while UBS may have failed to conduct thorough due diligence. Their efforts to distance themselves from drone production by manipulating formal ownership and transferring assets amidst sanction risks suggest a clear awareness of their involvement in illicit activities, prompting preemptive measures to evade potential repercussions.
Through email correspondence, it has become evident that companies like RusAgro and AssistAgro are directly involved in the production of drones aiding the invasion of Ukraine. Consequently, despite their efforts to conceal their involvement in such activities, there should be a stronger stance from the international community against these companies and their affiliated entities.
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As we approach a point marking the beginning of the war’s 5th year, it is time to discuss how we assess the war’s overall dynamics, strictly from a military standpoint. One method many analysts use is the pace of territory capture. However, this methodology has a serious issue🧵:
2/ Generally, this is not a bad method of analyzing battlefield dynamics, as the history of wars shows far more cases of states advancing along frontlines or into enemy territory before a war ends in their favor than the opposite. The devil, however, lies in the details
3/ Putting aside other domains of war, such as economics and socio-politics, battlefield dynamics are often judged by metrics like casualty rates and square kilometers of controlled territory. This can produce a distorted picture, a problem I informally term the “Sahara Fallacy”
The catastrophic situation of Russian forces trapped in Kupyansk, who continue to lose ground, together with a second consecutive year of failure to fully seize Pokrovsk, represents one of the more optimistic scenarios for 2025.
Thread:
2/ As war fatigue increasingly affects Russia, the prospect of enforcing a rapid, unfavorable capitulation of Ukraine through Washington, DC now appears even more remote, not not entirely excluded
3/ While Russia has used the negotiation process primarily to delay new sanctions and slow support for Kyiv, its economic situation continues to deteriorate, and tactical gains have failed to translate into strategic breakthroughs.
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2/ The missile, fitted with an APU-60-1MD (P-62-1MD) aircraft launcher, is mounted on a special bracket located on the upper front section of the Geran’s fuselage.
3/ The most likely employment of rocket involves transmitting images from the drone’s cameras to an operator via the modem. If a Ukrainian aircraft or helicopter enters the engagement zone, the operator sends a launch command to the missile’s control unit.
Analysis: New Data Suggests Russia Is Sustaining Mi-8 Output Despite Wartime Losses
According to non-public Russian procurement documents obtained and analyzed by the Frontelligence Insight team, current Mi-8 production appears sufficient to offset wartime losses. đź§µThread:
2/ Since the Soviet era, more than 12,000 Mi-8 helicopters of all types have been produced. It’s a versatile military transport platform that can move troops, cargo, serve as a flying hospital or EW asset, and conduct attack missions with unguided rockets and 100–500 kg bombs.
3/ Correspondence between Aviafarm and ZOMZ the Defense Ministry and ZOMZ show a request for 40 IS-264A thermometers: 20 for Kazan and 20 for Ulan-Ude, where Mi-8s are produced.
Most know Kirill Dmitriev as the Russian president’s envoy. But to more than 200 investors in Ukraine, he is known for taking part in a Kyiv real estate project that ended in a fraud and criminal case. Using articles from 2011, I was able to find more details. 🧵Thread:
2/ The story begins in 2000s, when N. Lahuna and A. Dmitriev (Kirill Dmitriev’s father) planned the elite suburban “Olympic Park.” Construction was to be carried out by Traverz-Bud, a subsidiary of "Evropa", in which, according to "Argument," Kirill Dmitriev held a majority stake
3/ Based on court documents cited in the media, in 2011 (links at the end), a prosecutor’s audit found that construction of the properties, which under agreements with the developers of the “Olympic Park” was due to be completed by the end of 2008, has not been carried out
The Financial Times, a media outlet I respect and one of the few that consistently produces exceptional reporting on Ukraine, has released a new editorial opinion. Many, including myself, agree that changes are needed. However, I believe the timing is extremely problematic:
2/ The situation on the frontlines is currently very difficult. At the same time, Kyiv is facing external pressure from Washington, where many are echoing Kremlin-style “capitulation” narratives. In moments like these, the President must stand on solid ground.
3/ This is not about Zelensky personally - it is about the institution of the Presidency. Completely overhauling the government and appointing untested figures in the name of transparency could create a situation where we might end up with no state and government at all