Why is a port at "the end of the world" suddenly gaining interest from both Washington and Beijing? 1/x
Punta Arenas, Chile, has seen shipping traffic nearly double in the last 4 years -- as wars choke shipping lanes in the Middle East and Europe, climate change snarls the Panama Canal and technological breakthroughs such as green hydrogen come to the fore.
The Strait of Magellan is also a jumping off point for exploration / exploitation of Antarctica, expected to become even more strategic as the Earth warms. US Southern Command chief Laura Richardson visited the area last year.
To keep pace with rising interest, Chile's government recently announced a 5-year, $400 million investment plan to upgrade ports and infrastructure in the region. Punta Arenas is also, intriguingly, President Boric's hometown
Interest in Latin America's seaports is surging due to nearshoring, climate change & new industries. Here's our graphic showing the top 10 ports in the region by shipping volume
For a deeper look at the race for global influence at South America's southern tip, and how governments like Chile and Argentina are trying to seize the moment, here is our new cover story, reported from Punta Arenas by the great @GaripPatricia
I’m not sure anybody realizes JUST HOW MUCH oil Guyana has. On a per-person basis, it’s more than any country in the world — and it’s not even close. This sudden bonanza could improve lives, or ruin the country as it has Venezuela & others. Which will it be? A short thread.
*At least in theory*, Guyana could become as rich as Italy or Japan by the end of this decade, according to the IMF. Before oil was discovered in the 2010s, this former British colony was one of the poorest countries in South America.
Our managing editor @ArriojaJoseE spent a week in Guyana and saw a place still struggling with classic development challenges — but as oil boom starts, inflation is soaring. Some worry about strength of democracy in a country w/ history of ethnic tension
That speech was Lula staking his claim to be the true voice of the Global South, a mantle he aspires to share with Modi. A few observations:
The speech was very ambitious, more so I thought than 20 years ago when Lula focused on hunger & inequality. Today he also touched on climate, democracy, big tech, war in Ukraine & more -- appealing to conscience of the rich world to do more.
Lula today was credible, measured & good humored -- free of the controversy and ill-advised rhetoric that has sometimes marked his off-the-cuff comments in 2023 on Ukraine, Venezuela, etc. Even his allies say he is often better with a script.
Here finally is the untold story of how Biden administration helped dissuade Bolsonaro & parts of Brazil’s military from overturning the 2022 election. Congrats @mj_stott & team. A few thoughts follow
The story gets the most critical detail right — the survival of Brazilian democracy in 2021-22 was mostly a tale of Brazilian institutions & individuals. Some of whom showed great personal courage.
But at several junctures, US officials — and especially the military —told their Brazilian counterparts in no uncertain terms that if democracy was subverted, it would mean the end of bilateral cooperation. This was important to Brazilian military which gets much hardware from US
This piece accurately reflects how Lula’s foreign policy is being perceived in much of Washington – that Brazil has become a threat to the US. I disagree with the author's analysis of Lula's motivations -- I don't think it's anti-Americanism per se (more) theglobalamericans.org/2023/06/brazil…
... Rather, I think Lula & allies believe a multipolar world order will be better than the current US-dominated one. That's a valid & rational doctrine for a country like Brazil, even if I personally have doubts (multipolar worlds historically more unstable... )
Add to that Lula's obvious tolerance for dictators "as long as they're on the left," and I understand why the author -- and many others in Washington -- are coming to this conclusion.
Last July during Brazil's election, Bolsonaro summoned the diplomatic community to give a completely unfounded presentation alleging the voting system was vulnerable to fraud
This week, as a result, he is likely to lose his eligibility to run in elections until 2030
Brazil's electoral court will consider charges that Bolsonaro abused his power and misappropriated government resources to spread fake news about the election, which he lost to Lula in October. More here:
Bolsonaro's attorneys allege the ex-president was engaging in a "debate of ideas" in order to improve Brazil's voting system. But numerous media reports have suggested Bolsonaro has more or less accepted his loss of eligibility, & his more focused on staying out of prison
The opportunity: Both leaders defeated a wannabe authoritarian, anti-Constitutional threat. They are democrats in world where democracy is under pressure. More meeting about this, the better
The risk: Ukraine.
Lula has engaged in both-sides-ism, saying Putin & Zelensky share equal blame. He is also interested in mediating peace, which is 1) unviable at present 2) reminiscent of Lula’s failed effort at Iran deal in 2010
If this dominates mtg they will walk away mad
Many other areas of Brazil-US cooperation including green energy, fight against Amazon deforestation. Some in US govt believe Brazil could participate more in “nearshoring” trend — it’s not that “near” but has industrial base & sophistication that most other LatAm countries don’t