Thread by @TroyTeslike

Tesla is not going to answer some of these questions but here is my take:

1/10

The hardware for the Optimus Robot is 20% ready and the software is 5% ready. The hardware will likely take 6-9 years and the software 5-10 years to complete. app.saytechnologies.com/tesla-2024-q1

2/10

4680 cell production at Giga Texas was operating at 6% capacity on March 20, 2024, when Tesla tweeted that they produce enough 4680 cells for 1,000 Cybertrucks per week. It took Tesla 3 years and 3 months to get to 6% capacity. The plan was to get to 100% in 1 year.

The Cybertruck battery is 122.4 kWh according to EPA documents. 1,000 Cybertrucks per week would require 122,400 kWh/week of batteries.

The design capacity of the 4680 production lines at Giga Texas is 100 GWh/year = 100 million kWh/year = 2 million kWh/week.

Therefore, they were at 122,400/2,000,000 = 6.1% capacity a month ago.

3/10

Tesla has never conducted any driverless Full Self-Driving (FSD) tests. Such a vehicle would probably require additional hardware, and there would likely be countless unforeseen issues when they begin testing. As a result, it could take 5 to 10 years before they can offer driverless rides to the public.

4/10

The compact car's production is delayed due to a lack of batteries. The Panasonic factory in Kansas, currently under construction, will start delivering 2170 cells to Tesla next year.

56% of the batteries from that factory will likely be used for Model 3 production in the US as Tesla needs to switch from cells imported from China to US-made cells to restore the $7,500 tax credit.

The remaining 44% is enough to produce 220,000 compact cars per year at Giga Texas. In theory, Tesla could start production in Q4 2025 with about 3,000 units, increase to 120,000 units in 2026, and reach 220,000 units in 2027, but it's unclear if they want to do that.

5/10

No, it's unlikely because Tesla's software is a Level 2 driver-assist system, but the name 'Full Self Driving' has already caused a lot of controversy since it's not truly self-driving. Other manufacturers wouldn't want to be linked to that controversy.

The term 'Full Self Driving' is problematic. Tesla should consider rebranding it as a driver-assist system.

6/10

5 years probably, 10 years definitely.

7/10

Production was around 700/week at the end of March based on VIN data. At full capacity, it will reach 5,000/week. That means production was running at 14 capacity. I will get new data soon.

8/10

It costs Tesla $29,200 to produce a Model 3 Standard range in China. The compact car would most likely cost around $24,000 to produce.

Therefore, Tesla wants to start production in the US instead of China or Europe because there is a $7,500 tax credit in the US. However, battery supply issues have caused some delays.

9/10

Yes, that's actually a good idea. Tesla started selling FSD in October 2016, but after all these years, the software is still far from being Full-Self Driving. Therefore, it makes sense to allow the software to be transferred to a new vehicle.

10/10

Tesla unveiled the Semi in December 2017, and it's been more than six years since then. Currently, there are two main problems with the Semi:

1. There is no dedicated factory.
2. There is a lack of batteries.

Tesla is about to start building a new factory in Nevada, which is expected to take about two years to complete. However, the situation with batteries remains unclear.

Here is the correct question for 5/10:

I meant 14% capacity.