The inheritance tax/wealth distribution debate raises old, rehashed, populist - and more importantly, the destructive worst of our politicians. 🧵
The fast upward-ascend of the nation has taken over 250 million people out of absolute poverty in just the past decade - but people don't like to talk about that - they would rather talk of wealth inequality.
2/n
Much of this increased wealth discussed is only paper wealth - and assumes all shares of promoters were sold tomorrow morning (assuming such a sale would be possible at any price at all)
3/n
Here is the nature of wealth - you can either increase the size of the wealth and income pie where both rich and poor gain. That can only happen if the nation grows at high growth rates - which requires productivity gains and capital infusion.
4/n
Or we can keep everyone poor and thus make them dependent on the political class for handouts.
5/n
There is not even 1 country in the past 100 years which has distributed wealth and even survived, leave alone become prosperous. Argentina which was one of the 2 richest American countries (one of the 10 richest in the world by capita, and ahead of Canada, Austria and Japan) - now has 57% poverty rate and has defaulted on its sovereign debt 9 times.
6/n
Oh why look far, just look at India in the 20th century - conveniently kept poor. It was a feature not a bug to keep us poor.
7/n
Are we creating the legacy of Mugabe, Kim Jong Un (two to choose from), Stalin, Mao - or do we have better political icons? Make your choice soon. And make it count. It is important. May not seem so, but it is.
8/n
What’s going on is very hard. Time to appreciate it.
🧵 Those who are asking why we are not growing at 15% or 150% - ye koi Ferrari thodi hai ki accelerator press kiya aur gaadi nikal padi. Even a small increase in GDP growth rate requires massive effort on the ground. Thread on why we have done well and what me must do:
a) cleaning up of the banking system (took a decade) - but remember, it is easy to slide back, so constant vigilance is required.
b) clean up of the corporate sector: this requires both banking cleanup as discussed above and also clean up of the bankruptcy system, which has been a success.
That’s how long it takes to clean the financial system if you have the right intent. The upwards and downwards trajectory narrates to us thousands of unstated stories without reading anything except this chart.
These are only dates of recognising that loans couldn’t be recovered. To really figure when the rot happened, you need to see when the loans were given and what was their term maturity. For SBI and associates 76% of all loans given were with a maturity of 1 year or more. See the data from 2012 to get a sense of the era of free money, and see the data with the fattest numbers - 1 to 3 years maturity. These are the loans which soured from 2013 to 2016 and beyond. As they say jokingly, lending is an unskilled job. Source ~RBI data.
*note the 1st chart is for the entire banking system, while the 2nd is for only the SBI family. So the problem was much worse than what the 1st chart lets on.