Strong disagreement.

Short answer: The Constitution.

GST wasn’t a unilateral Centre tax—it was a grand federal bargain. Every rate cut needs the consent of all states + Centre in the GST Council. That means politics, not economics, drives speed and extent of reform. Thread. 🧵

https://twitter.com/smarket/status/1956317866342416550

The current structure of GST is a difficult compromise - not that of politicians with voters. But rather of the central government with the anti-reform lobby (which would love rent seeking with hundreds of levies - remember trucks linining up for tens of kilometers to pay octroi?) and also the centre versus state, and more importantly centre versus opposition ruled states. 2/n

🚨 Trump’s tariffs aren’t just bad economics — they’re a slow-motion wrecking ball for the US economy & global trade.

Short term = political theatre.
Long term = broken trust, weaker growth, fractured alliances.

People are over-estimating the short-term impact of Trump’s tariffs… and under-estimating the long-term damage.

A 🧵 on what’s coming 👇

1/n In the short term, tariffs will bounce around.

Political reality: if they spike US inflation (and they WILL), they’ll get rolled back. Critical imports will get exceptions.

The real danger? What happens after the cameras leave.

2/n

Here is a commentary on the board decisions of SEBI from today. Let me start with the last agenda as it is the most important. 🧵
This is really a banger of a start for the new SEBI Chair. It announces from the SEBI Bhavan rooftop that SEBI takes transparency seriously (which it gratituously asks by the kilo from intermediary and listed companies, but refuses to provide even a morsel of, when it comes to fair conduct of senior fuctionaries of SEBI).

There is no need to cut capital gains tax. Since, my Emperor Palpatine tweet was taken seriously by several people, here is a serious tweet thread. 🧵 First of all - remember what I learnt in law of direct taxation class on day 1 back in law school. There is no logic or fairness in tax law and even the most unfair and illogical tax is constitutionally valid (few here will remember the 97% marginal tax rate for those earning 5 lakhs per year). What we should look however is internal consistency. That includes treating both domestic and foreign investors at par with respect to tax rates.

Summary of Economic Survey:
The Economic Survey 2024-25 highlights India's strong economic performance despite global uncertainties. Key takeaways include:

1. Economic Growth & Sectors
GDP Growth: Real GVA growth for FY25 is estimated at 6.4%.
Sectoral Performance:Construction: 15% above pre-pandemic levels, driven by infrastructure growth.
Manufacturing: Recovering but slightly below pre-pandemic trends.
Services: Strong at 7.2% growth, with financial, real estate, and professional services leading. 2. Investments & Fiscal Measures
Capital Expenditure (Capex): Union government capex up 8.2% (July-Nov 2024).
Private Investments: Investment intentions ₹2.45 lakh crore for FY25 (up from ₹1.6 lakh crore in FY24).
GST Revenue: Main revenue source for states, with Manipur and Nagaland most dependent.

So here is the thread which I have promised, my updated predictions of the next few years - of the economy and the markets. Same disclaimer applies - I’m just a twitter economist, and you know what they say about ‘a little knowledge’.

https://x.com/sandeepparekh/status/1534743890485706752?s=61&t=PTT0nDN81Czh3jNE7lETgw

1. Indian Markets will remain choppy for another 2 years. While I don't see a major secular fall - the rockiness will ensure people who are in and out or people who trade in F&O will be punished severely. This is a time for moderate returns, this is a time for safe assets, this is a risk-off market. The markets will again face massive turbulence coming from western shores. As the western rate cycle starts moving down (after the biggest up cycle in 40 years) expect global volatility, equity valuation tempering (even dramatically for tech and other stocks sitting on the moon) and a risk off market there. It will impact India for sure. How much will depend on cushion provided by domestic savers.
x.com/SandeepParekh/…

The inheritance tax/wealth distribution debate raises old, rehashed, populist - and more importantly, the destructive worst of our politicians. 🧵 The fast upward-ascend of the nation has taken over 250 million people out of absolute poverty in just the past decade - but people don't like to talk about that - they would rather talk of wealth inequality.
2/n

The Economist’s 5 stages of grief.
Prologue:



Denial:

🧵 Those who are asking why we are not growing at 15% or 150% - ye koi Ferrari thodi hai ki accelerator press kiya aur gaadi nikal padi. Even a small increase in GDP growth rate requires massive effort on the ground. Thread on why we have done well and what me must do: a) cleaning up of the banking system (took a decade) - but remember, it is easy to slide back, so constant vigilance is required.

That’s how long it takes to clean the financial system if you have the right intent. The upwards and downwards trajectory narrates to us thousands of unstated stories without reading anything except this chart. These are only dates of recognising that loans couldn’t be recovered. To really figure when the rot happened, you need to see when the loans were given and what was their term maturity. For SBI and associates 76% of all loans given were with a maturity of 1 year or more. See the data from 2012 to get a sense of the era of free money, and see the data with the fattest numbers - 1 to 3 years maturity. These are the loans which soured from 2013 to 2016 and beyond. As they say jokingly, lending is an unskilled job. Source ~RBI data.

Gormint today 😂 HR telling employees to travel before 1st July

10 predictions about the future of the economy and markets (I’m a twitter economist - so treat with fist of salt) 🧵 1. Indian Markets will remain choppy with a downward trend for most of 2022. Foreign investors will continue to exit as the global money tap dries. Domestic investors will likely stay invested providing a cushion. Also, there will be few alternate asset classes left.