So here is the thread which I have promised, my updated predictions of the next few years - of the economy and the markets. Same disclaimer applies - I’m just a twitter economist, and you know what they say about ‘a little knowledge’.

https://x.com/sandeepparekh/status/1534743890485706752?s=61&t=PTT0nDN81Czh3jNE7lETgw

1. Indian Markets will remain choppy for another 2 years. While I don't see a major secular fall - the rockiness will ensure people who are in and out or people who trade in F&O will be punished severely. This is a time for moderate returns, this is a time for safe assets, this is a risk-off market. The markets will again face massive turbulence coming from western shores. As the western rate cycle starts moving down (after the biggest up cycle in 40 years) expect global volatility, equity valuation tempering (even dramatically for tech and other stocks sitting on the moon) and a risk off market there. It will impact India for sure. How much will depend on cushion provided by domestic savers.
x.com/SandeepParekh/…

The inheritance tax/wealth distribution debate raises old, rehashed, populist - and more importantly, the destructive worst of our politicians. 🧵 The fast upward-ascend of the nation has taken over 250 million people out of absolute poverty in just the past decade - but people don't like to talk about that - they would rather talk of wealth inequality.
2/n

The Economist’s 5 stages of grief.
Prologue:



Denial:

🧵 Those who are asking why we are not growing at 15% or 150% - ye koi Ferrari thodi hai ki accelerator press kiya aur gaadi nikal padi. Even a small increase in GDP growth rate requires massive effort on the ground. Thread on why we have done well and what me must do: a) cleaning up of the banking system (took a decade) - but remember, it is easy to slide back, so constant vigilance is required.

That’s how long it takes to clean the financial system if you have the right intent. The upwards and downwards trajectory narrates to us thousands of unstated stories without reading anything except this chart. These are only dates of recognising that loans couldn’t be recovered. To really figure when the rot happened, you need to see when the loans were given and what was their term maturity. For SBI and associates 76% of all loans given were with a maturity of 1 year or more. See the data from 2012 to get a sense of the era of free money, and see the data with the fattest numbers - 1 to 3 years maturity. These are the loans which soured from 2013 to 2016 and beyond. As they say jokingly, lending is an unskilled job. Source ~RBI data.

Gormint today 😂 HR telling employees to travel before 1st July

10 predictions about the future of the economy and markets (I’m a twitter economist - so treat with fist of salt) 🧵 1. Indian Markets will remain choppy with a downward trend for most of 2022. Foreign investors will continue to exit as the global money tap dries. Domestic investors will likely stay invested providing a cushion. Also, there will be few alternate asset classes left.