1/9 It's important for Americans to realize that European support for Ukraine is often conducted in a secretive manner. Analysis by @joni_askola
2/9 Many refer to stats from the Kiel Institute to determine which country has provided the most assistance to Ukraine. However, this approach has limitations, as Kiel's methodology relies on announcements, and numerous European countries do not publicly disclose all their aid.
3/9 For months, there was widespread belief that France had provided less than 1 billion euros in military aid. However, the French Senate eventually acknowledged that they had actually already allocated nearly 4 billion euros in aid.
4/9 For instance, Finland does not publicly disclose its contributions and only includes the value of equipment that needs replacement. This makes it difficult to ascertain the actual extent of Finland's assistance.
5/9 Numerous other examples exist, including Bulgaria, which is recognized for providing and selling a significantly greater amount of equipment to Ukraine than what is officially reported.
6/9 It's also important to note that even based on official statistics, many European countries contribute a larger share of their GDP and defense budget to Ukraine than the US.
7/9 Comparing donations becomes challenging due to the varying methodologies and levels of transparency employed by each country. As highlighted by @ColbyBadhwar, Germany is likely the sole European country to approach a level of transparency comparable to that of the US.
8/9 In recent months, Europe has significantly increased its support. One positive outcome of Johnson's prolonged blocking and delay of Ukraine aid is that it compelled Europe to respond and ultimately enhance its assistance.
9/9 This doesn't imply that Europe has sufficiently increased its efforts. There is still much more that can be accomplished. However, it's important to recognize that Europe is actively engaged in a significantly greater level of support than many American analysts may realize.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
The defeat of Viktor Orban in the Hungarian elections, after he was strongly backed by Donald Trump and US Vice President JD Vance, has become a turning point for Europe’s far right. According to Politico, many ultra-right parties are now distancing themselves from Trump,
🧵
as his increasingly aggressive stance toward Europe and the new war in the Middle East has made him politically costly. It is becoming clear that closeness to him can damage electoral prospects. “We need to keep our distance from him,” Marine Le Pen told members of her party
at a National Rally meeting, according to a senior party official present. A further factor has been Trump’s attack on Pope Leo XIV. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni had been one of the last European leaders trying to maintain good relations with Trump, but reportedly
russian President Vladimir Putin demanded that the government and the Central Bank explain why economic indicators are falling short of forecasts and again called for measures to restore growth, noting that GDP has been declining for two consecutive months. After slowing
🧵
sharply to about 1% growth in 2025 due to weak domestic demand, high borrowing costs, and expanded Western sanctions, the economy has now shifted into contraction, shrinking by around 1.8% over the first two months of the year. The Ministry of Economic Development initially
attributed the decline to a calendar effect, citing fewer working days compared to the same period last year, but Putin dismissed this as insufficient and asked officials to explain why actual data is worse than their own projections. Speaking to senior economic officials,
The State Duma has approved in the first reading a bill expanding the powers of the President of russia to deploy troops abroad to “protect the rights of russian citizens.” According to the government proposal, Vladimir Putin would be able to use the military in response
🧵
to the arrest, detention, or prosecution of russians in foreign countries, including decisions made by courts and international bodies that russia does not recognize. The president already has authority to send troops abroad under the law “On Security,” particularly if actions
by other states or institutions are seen as contradicting russia’s interests or public order. The new bill comes amid growing warnings from NATO and European intelligence agencies about a potential conflict involving russia and alliance members. In 2025, Germany’s BND warned
On average, from March 8 to April 5, russia exported 3.35 million barrels of oil per day - the highest export level since June 2022. Bloomberg reports this. The largest deliveries went to Asian countries, particularly India and China. In China, an average of 1.07 million
🧵
barrels of oil per day was delivered, and to India - 1.9 million. Turkey also purchased 210 thousand barrels per day. Overall, russia earned about $2.02 billion per week from this export. Some russian tankers also do not have a specified destination. Instead, Suez or Port Sudan
is often listed as the final point. The number of such tankers is increasing, while the number of tankers officially heading to China and India is decreasing. In addition, the amount of oil loaded onto tankers at sea dropped to 105 million barrels. By mid-March, this figure was
Over the past couple of months, russian military sources have been reporting that the intensity of Ukrainian strikes on logistics has increased many times over. We are talking about so-called middle strike. Until 2025, despite innovations in drone technology, Ukraine was
🧵
losing to russia in this segment. The “drone wall” developed by Ukraine is effective at relatively short distances - up to 20 km from the line of contact. At the same time, long-range drones were developed, which Ukraine has been actively using to strike oil refineries and
the military industry of russia, but until recently Ukraine could not effectively carry out middle strike. This problem began to be actively discussed in the summer of 2025, and since then the Armed Forces of Ukraine have taken the right steps in the right direction. In June,
The sharp rise in oil prices due to the war in Iran strongly plays into russia’s hands, as prices for russian oil grades have exceeded 100 dollars per barrel and Asian countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia and Sri Lanka are actively ordering russian
🧵
oil, increasing the likelihood that demand in the region will exceed russian supply. This is driven by the easing of US sanctions. This allows russia, despite waging an aggressive war, to improve its standing on the international stage. Along with oil contracts, russia also
offers investments in other sectors and new business opportunities, including military cooperation. Thus, instead of isolation and toxicity, russia gains new markets and expands its influence. All thanks to Trump. However, oil is not only russia’s strength but also its most