Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Apr 24 3 tweets 1 min read Read on X
The more you zoom out, the more the situation looks worse for Russia. Their long term prospects are really very bad. But when you zoom in to details, it flips and Russia looks like it is in a better position. The trick is balancing the two perspectives.
If you stay too focused on one or the other, you lose perspective. Both are important. The short term advantages Russia has must be actively mitigated, and you must also understand they are short term. If you don’t take these issues seriously, bad things will happen.
But at the same time, they shouldn’t be taken too strongly as to imply they will last forever, because they cannot and will not. All planning at every level, from government down to volunteers, should be built around balancing the long and short term realities.

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

Apr 14
Officer wrote about this today, but it is blatantly obvious just by looking at what vehicles get destroyed and where and how: Russian casualties do not usually come from an assault. They come from trying to build up forces for an assault.
In other words, Ukraine destroys Russians as they drive to the front. Once at the front, the infantry disperse into various underground shelters to hide until such a time a large enough force is gathered to begin assault operations.
The assault operations don’t have nearly the casualties as you may expect. And this is what you hear from Ukrainian assaults as well, where you see Ukrainians say they captured a trench without casualties, but took heavy casualties in the subsequent artillery barrages.
Read 6 tweets
Apr 12
AI cannot get data for my project. It cant. AI cannot understand what the data means. AI cannot read between the lines. AI cannot do anything. It is useless. I wish people would stop suggesting it. It isn’t an option.
No lazy shortcuts. Work is done by hand. At most, the AI can check if a video is a duplicate, or a script can compile a list of sources that must then be analyzed by hand. But the AI is not, cannot, and will never be a substitute for doing work. Period.
Even if you could get AI to analyze the video, break it down, and label everything with 100% accuracy, how would you then even analyze the dataset? You would have no knowledge or expertise. You wouldn’t know what questions to ask, or what caveats exist, or why decisions are made
Read 5 tweets
Apr 11
The people who want to limit collateral damage, casualties (civilian and military), environmental damage, and destruction of infrastructure should also support using the most powerful weapons in the greatest number. Because ending the war as quickly as possible achieves all goals
The people who say they are against using weapons to destroy Russian infrastructure are, in a round about way, arguing in favor of getting more civilians killed.
There is this mind rot that occurred when uncritical people somehow weaseled their way in charge over the past few years. They wanted to limit collateral damage and civilian casualties, which is admirable and is necessary, but they wanted to do so at the expense of logic.
Read 10 tweets
Apr 7
Here are the losses I could identify today.



There is another video of like 10 more russian losses but I am not confident they aren't duplicates and I need to precisely geolocate them before I say anything more about them. losses.ukrdailyupdate.com
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Dear Russians, please stop. Just go home. You're getting massacred. Every single day. Just go home. Sitting here watching a platoon of infantry get hit by like 9 dpicm in a row and I think like 1 guy survived. Imagine if those 30 guys stayed home instead.
This russian guy is sitting here holding his severed leg. Imagine if he stayed home.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 28
I was only just now able to finish updating my map for yesterday. But here are some news stories I want to highlight.

A civilian was wounded by UXO near Kharkiv.

map.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=50.113420…

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A 12 year old boy was killed in Borova.

map.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=49.377844…

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The last remaining civilian was killed in Yampolivka.

map.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=49.063748…

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Read 12 tweets
Mar 13
People trying to downplay Russias improved ISR capabilities are missing the boat. Just because something existed for a long time doesn’t mean it isn’t improved. Fucks sake.
Especially an issue where improvement is fixing communication friction. Do people really think thats something that cannot be addressed? Cutting down time from observation to engagement is, like, normal.
Really, the problem here, is that Ukraine had all of this time to develop systems to deal with the drones while they were hindered by systemic communication problems, but since that was never done we are seeing the impact of those systemic problems being alleviated.
Read 4 tweets

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