Today, I went to the Chad-Sudan border - Darfur starts behind the trees. It was eerie to see a RSF checkpoint, the first houses, a telco mast and Sudanese crossing to shop. It looked peaceful but there's also a rather dark backstory showing the conflict's complexity..
1. You can't see much on the mobile phone pictures but there is in the background a tent housing RSF fighters next to the first houses -- they check Sudanese crossing into to a Chadian village. The border is just a wadi separating two villages.
2. There was a market day on the Chadian side. You can see Darfuris coming with carts to buy sugar, fruit and beans. It was a constant flow of people. Chadian security checks everyone but lets civilians pass. Chad has an open door policy for refugees.
3. Now it gets even more interesting. Many market traders were Darfuris -- people among the 750k who'd fled the conflict. I was surprised that Sudanese pounds were changing hands.... The vendors had businesses in Darfur, lost it and try to make a new start in Chad. So far so good
4. So where is the dark side ? The vendors are victims of RSF's killings. Many are from the Masalit or other non-Arab tribes targeted by the Arab-led RSF. They were victims of "Janjaweed" fighters in the first Darfur war. They simply cant go back though they lived close.
5. And the Sudanese shoppers ? There could be a harmless explanation as there has been no recent fighting in this area so some normal life has resumed for the villagers living next to Chad. But ...
5. the shoppers come from villages where RSF is in charge and are (apparently) from groups which have at least arranged themselves (if not worked) with the RSF. People on the Chadian side said the RSF only lets those cross who are not against them. So some Darfuris suffer less
6. It's great that markets in Chad serve food-scarce Darfur. But it also shows Sudan's complexity with pockets of peace amid despair just nearby and different dynamics. El-Geneina city is another case. The RSF is accused of having killed or expelled non-Arabs. Arabs stayed.
7. I remember from covering Darfur for @Reuters 2011-13 that you had camps such as Zam Zam full of Africans tribesmen, mostly farmers, who had fled. Their abandoned fields were sometimes just 10km away -- but they couldn't go back as Arabs backed by Khartoum were cultivating them
8. After the border trip I met many Masalit in a camp who had fled El Geneina - they said Arab neighbours had helped the RSF identify them. But some 30,000 (mostly Arabs) are thought to have remained in El Geneina (once a major city)
9. The refugees are unlikely to return as RSF controls much of Darfur/Sudan. Next to the camp is an old one from the 2000s when 400,000 fled. Like Zam Zam camp in Darfur tents became houses -- see the difference. Some new arrivals now collect stones assuming they cant go back
10. Another interesting detail of Sudan's complexity is that despite the wars Darfur used to supply eastern Chad with food and petrol, even imports coming via Port Sudan. Darfuris are great business people and found ways to keep trading routes open
11. Now, food is brought from as far as N'Djamena and Cameroon to the east - prices for sugar or petrol have risen 4-5 times, adding to the hardship in one of the world's poorest regions. This is what a roads looks like in the eastern Chadian countryside.
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Arrived for the night at Farchana in eastern Chad, home to a huge refugee camp and UN/ NGO hub to bring aid to Sudanese fleeing war - arrivals have surged again since last week with fighting flaring up near El-Fasher, Darfur's last city so far largely untouched by the conflict
1. When the 2023 Sudan war between Hermedti's Rapid Forces Forces and Burhan's army reached the western Darfur region some thousands fled every day to Adre, a small Chadian town on the other side of the border. Recently, numbers dropped to some 200 a day -- still many but
2. Since Hermedti last week attacked villages near El-Fasher, up to 1,000 have fled to Adre on some days. There are already 750,000 refugees in eastern Chad plus 400,000 "old" ones who fled the first Darfur conflict in the early 2000s.
Last week, flying to Vienna I had a strange but fascinating encounter. There were five very fit young men hand carrying each a huge bag – there were so heavy that two had to lift each bag step by step, holding up at Istanbul the terminal bus. Guess what was in there ?
1. Being very tired after an overnight flight, I didn’t really figure out what they were carrying until I approached them -- and was told they were hand-carrying a total of 250 kg gold bars to Dubai.
2. This is most likely gold from informal mines, a major source of employment in the Sahel. Thousands dig for gold at makeshift sites, whose output is bought up by traders and then smelted at Bamako market into bars.
I am in Burkina Faso this week but plenty of news coming out of Niger tonight. A break with EU defense cooperations and a new military assistance with Russia. Mali 2.0 ? A few quick thoughts
1. Niger's new military government basically ended the EU police and military missions @EUCAPSahelNiger and EUMPM, which had provided training and equiment for Niger's police and army - part of a massive Western push in recent years to stabilise the Sahel country.
2. Niger had already ten days ago suspended a 2015 anti-migration pact with the European Union which had (pretty much) closed the main transit migration route from sub-Saharan Africa to North Africa. In return, Niger got massive aid.
Sharing some observations from my trip to Chad, the only Sahel country (apart Mauretania) where you still see French flags in public – but for how long ? A thread
1. The government of transition President Deby remains allied to France which has several bases in the central African country. Losing Niger was a shock for Paris but an exit from Chad would be even bigger blow given the importance for its African military ops plus psychology.
2. Total is about to exit Chad as they apparently struggle to make a profit – a reckoning of what is in store for France ? On social media, influencers playing Russia's game have been trying to stir up trouble by falsely claiming French troops leaving Niger via Chad will stay.
Back in Niger last week as we are about to start a new project there, joining the Western policy focus to stabilize this key Sahel state. With the @UN_MINUSMA retreat from Mali, Niger will become even more important. A few thoughts.
1. You know when foreign aid is flowing when the local Toyota dealer has dozen of Landcruisers "dispo immediatement", such is NGO demand. Niamey is booming. Villas for expats are hard to get and hotels are full of Western soldiers and consultants. It feels a bit like Juba 2011.
2. It really makes sense to work with Niger as the government is an elected one, welcomes foreign partners and has also some promising ideas such investing in its army or educating girls at school until they are 18 to curb the world's highest population growth.
German army posting tonight a series of tweets outlining the latest challenges in Mali for @UN_MINUSMA casting fresh doubts about the UN mission‘s future. A thread.
1. Mali is still not allowing troop rotations following the arrest of 49 Ivorians in July at Bamako airport over what authorities say was a lack of authorization to deploy.
3. Therefore Germany’s planned boosting of troops to help replace the French army leaving this month (camp security, medical services etc) will not go ahead for now. Flights have been cancelled.