Thread by @1goodtern

Here's a thread on the deaths of 5 to 9 year olds in England and Wales in the last four years.
It's not great.
The kids are not alright.
🚨🧵

If you look at the plain data, the number of deaths of kids aged 5 to 9 registered each week, it's very messy data.
You might not even notice a trend.

But there is a trend and it's a nasty one.
Here's what it looks like when you look at the deaths registered in *the preceding six months* for any moment:

There are currently 50% more 5 to 9 year olds dying in England and Wales now than four years ago.

Before we get any further, no, I don't think this has anything to do with these children receiving covid vaccines.
If anything, it's the opposite.

This is the second most under-vaccinated cohort in England and Wales, with coverage varying from something like 10% back in 2021 to less than 5% now.
Remember: 0-5s were not vaccinated here at all, and many of those children are now in the 5-9 age group.

I don't have the data about whether these children were vaccinated or not, so that's not even an avenue I can explore. Maybe someone with access could have a look.

So are there any other clues anywhere as to why 50% more 5 to 9 year olds are dying in England and Wales now than four years ago?

One obvious possibility could be that there are 50% more 5 to 9 year olds now than four years ago.

That seems unlikely, because the birth rates have been gradually declining recently, which actually may mean that the death *rate* has increased by even more than 50%.

But there may also have been an increase in the number of dependent young children brought into England and Wales from abroad with families immigrating here.

But probably not 50% more, I would imagine. That would probably have made the news, right?

What other factors are there... Brexit? Pressure on healthcare? Lockdowns? Immunity Debt? Laziness? Anxiety? Helicopter parents? Mould? Heatwaves? Dust? Alcohol abuse? Strawberries?

But... wait a second... that graph has some *shape* to it.

Maybe if we changed the graph from being the deaths in the last 6 months, to being the deaths in the last 3 months, it would give more definition of the shape.

Wait for a holy shit moment.

Holy shit.

The deaths seem to come in some sort of *wave*.

Maybe it's seasonal.
Let's add... the 'respiratory virus season', November to February.
Hmm. There's a little bit of correlation.

There's some spikes after those seasons, but remember, these are *registrations* of deaths, not the dates of death themselves.
Maybe someone has that data, but I don't.

So it could be that some of the registrations are happening a little bit later, but there are some other patterns in those waves.

Can anyone think of anything else that has come in waves ever since 2020?

Oh yes.
Covid.

This is what it looks like when you add the waves of covid death registrations.
But remember 5-9s weren't vaccinated.
So although you get very precise correlation on that first peak, vaccines were introduced then - so from there on the scenario changes.

Let's change the scale of the graph so the first peak is removed, and we can focus on some of the periods in *just the last 3 years*

Focus on this section.
Lots of the rest of the population are protected by vaccines, but not 5-9s.
The spikes in deaths of 5-9s?
They match far too closely with the covid deaths of the broader population.

You can see all these correlating peaks, right?

They're not going to match precisely week to week or height to height for a hundred reasons.
Registrations can be delayed.
Different waves of covid might cause different health complications.
Some waves hit different age groups at different times.

The green line is *all deaths with covid on the registration as a cause* so that's hundreds of thousands of deaths - and the orange line is *all deaths of 5-9 year olds* which is only 1,000, so just the scale of the data for the 5-9s means that it's more influenced by small changes.

And then in April 2023, something else happens.
There's another MASSIVE drop in testing for Covid.
And guess what, that correlates with a massive drop in the number of covid deaths recorded.

Trump was right.
If you don't test, it just goes away.

So let's change the scale again.

Uh oh.
Every peak in deaths of 5-9s correlates with a peak in covid deaths, however much the government tries hard to pretend they're not happening.

And so here we are.
Back to the waves of the registrations of the deaths of 5-9 year olds, that correlate precisely with the waves of deaths of covid in the broader generation.
Each one.
Each spike.

But that doesn't answer the original question:

Why are so many more 5-9 year olds dying in England and Wales than four years ago?

Or maybe it does.

PS1
and while we're here...
It's not a coincidence that all registered covid deaths decreased so dramatically after that change in policy.
Waves of covid infections have been killing at least twice as many people as official figures say since then.

https://x.com/1goodtern/status/1783451492281639199

My estimate from my own experience of working supporting sick people in hospitals is that it's about 2-3x as many as official estimates - 2-3x as many deaths and hospitalisations since April 2023.

So as bad as 2022, maybe as bad as 2021.

Those are estimates, and I'm just asking for more testing and more attention to the problem.

PS2
DEATH IS JUST THE TIP OF THE ICEBERG.
If you're baffled as to why kids are absent from schools, then look at this graph.
If more kids are dying, it's because more kids are being hospitalised, and that's because more kids are sick.

It's absolutely elementary logic.

If anyone is trying to pretend that sickness is not responsible for kids being absent from school, they are being dangerous and irresponsible.

PS3
So... if kids deaths are peaking with covid waves... why?

It isn't just necessarily acute covid infections.

We know that covid infections damage immune systems - so kids are sicker *after* a covid wave, as well as during a covid wave.
And if you now lump a covid wave in with a flu wave like this winter, and with a whooping cough wave this spring, and with a measles wave...

You're going to get twice as many 5-9 year olds dying in a twelve week period.

The UK government are promoting sending sick children into school with the very symptoms of whooping cough, measles, and covid.

And the government meanwhile are not releasing data on how many children are *dying* from infections like these and Strep A.

Why?

Why are they forcing kids into school sick, and then not releasing the data about what it's causing?

Because they're incompetent and malicious, that's why.

PS4
Waves of covid infections strain the healthcare system, and individual infections strain the body's system.

The healthcare system breaks down when the staff are sick with covid, and the hospitals are filled up with patients who need care because of the problems covid infections have caused.

So even if you *don't* have covid during a covid wave, but you need medical attention, you're going to have to wait longer and you'll probably receive poorer care during a covid wave.

And that's going to lead to an increased risk of death then.

So even just the endless waves of mass illness are going to make things more dangerous.

No, bot, as I explained earlier, this is the second least vaccinated cohort in the country. Fewer than 5% now.

Kym thinks that more kids should die.
What a turd.

PS5
And 1 to 4s aren't doing well either.

PS6
Why else might children die during covid waves?
Another sad truth:
If parents are sick, they are less able to care for their children.

If parents are sick with Covid, they are much less able to care for their children.