.@EmmanuelMacron warned today that the European Union and the European model of civilisation could “die” unless steps were taken in the next 5 years to create a European “power” which protected itself from Russian military aggression & Chinese & American protectionism. Thread 1/
In a sweeping 2h speech at Sorbonne University in Paris, Macron called inter alia for a doubled EU budget and the scrapping of Brussels' rules on competition and trade to allow Europe to defend itself from foreign domination and seize the initiative on green industries and AI 2/
He called for EU countries to build a new common European defence strategy (within Nato and not a |“European army”) and repeated his suggestion that France’s nuclear deterrent could become part of the defence of Europe 3/
The speech, billed as Sorbonne 2 after Macron’s influential speech calling for a “sovereign Europe” in the same venue 7 years ago, was mostly intended to shape a debate on the future of the EU due to start in June. But its objectives were also national and electoral 4/
Although Elysée officials insisted that it was “not a campaign speech”, Macron evidently hopes that it will change the course of a so-far disastrous campaign by his camp before European elections in June. His centrist alliance trails Marine Le Pen’s Far right by 14-15 points 5/
At the very end of his speech, Macron lambasted Europhobic politicians (like @MLP_officiel Le Pen, without naming her) who say they will remain within the EU but disobey the rules. This was, he said, “like saying we should keep the building but let it fall down” 6/
The Sorbonne 2 speech - dense & visionary, pessimistic but finally optimistic - will prob have more impact in other EU capitals than on the French electorate. Many Fr voters see EU elections as a free hit against Macron after 7yrs in power – rather than anything to do with EU 7/
The first Sorbonne speech in 2017 succesfully set the agenda for many advances in the EU in the last seven years, such as the concept of a “strategic Europe” to protect member states economically and militarily in a hostile world and the idea of common EU debt 8/
Today’s speech was, if anything , more far reaching - even apocalyptic. The European Union, and the European model of civilisation, were “mortal”, Macron said & would die unless urgent action was taken within 5 or 10y to strengthen European defences – militarily & economically 9/
“Economically, the model we have today is no longer sustainable” Macron said. The US & China had chosen to “break” international rules on free trade established 15y ago. Unless EU reacts it wd no longer be able to create jobs & wealth to sustain its prosperity & welfare state 10/
“The two biggest international powers have decided to no longer respect the rules of trade,” Macron said (referring in America’s case to the Inflation Reduction Act). “I’m stating that crudely but it’s true.” 11/
To survive, Macron said, the EU must also become a global power – “Europe Puissance” – by defending its own borders, economically and militarily and against illegal migration 12/
Macron called for a “Prosperity Pact”, including a system of European preferences, to protect strategic industries such as defence and AI. He also called for a doubling of public green, high-tech & nuclear investments to allow EU to lead the way in industries of the future 13/
To make that possible, Macron said the EU budget should be doubled and financed by new resources such as a tax on financial transactions and a “carbon duty” on imports that failed to meet EU environmental standards. Present EU competition rules should be redrawn 14/
Many of his economic proposals imply a direct confrontation with Germany (ie doubling the EU budget) but also with the United States. The proposal to create a European preference for defence procurement will ring alarm bells in Washington 15/
On EU defence policy, Macron stuck to more familiar ground. He called for talks to “establish a credible defence of the continent”, within “European pillar of Nato.” This wd not mean an EU Army but greater “strategic intimacy” between countries, such as links between Fr & UK 16/
Macron went on to repeat a previous suggestion that the French nuclear deterrent should be considered part of this new European defence structure. “Nuclear dissuasion… is an indispensable element of the defence of the European continent,” he said 17/
Macron will no doubt be criticised (in Berlin and elsewhere) for being more Franco-French than European. European defence preference would, for instance, be great news for France, the world’s third largest arms exporter 18/
Overall though the speech showed a readiness to ask the tough questions about Europe’s future which are rarely asked in other EU capitals (and certainly not in Berlin) ENDS
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