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Ian Ellis Profile picture
@ianellisjones
Apr 27 • 11 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
New map — Major military activity in the Indo-Pacific:

- 1/3 of US Navy Fleet in theater
- Balikatan underway, many major firsts
- Taiwan inauguration May 20 & potential Chinese response
- Increased PLA military activity around Taiwan, 120+ ships in SCS

What you need to know 🧵 Image
Tracking heightened & steady Chinese PLA military activity in 2024, highlighted by a balloon barrage in January, encircling Kinmen island in February, increasing frequency, scale, & scope of drills in March, & surging warships to end April.
Approximately 40 U.S. Navy ships are in the Indo-Pacific theater, including 2x carrier strike groups (1x deployed & underway near Thailand) & 2x amphibious ready groups (1x deployed & underway in the Philippines). Image
“This upsurge is out of the norm. This coincided with the launching of Balikatan,” Philippine Navy Commodore Trinidad said Tuesday.

The 124 ships (compared to an average ~60/week in months prior) included 3 PLAN, 11 Coast Guard, & a low of 50 maritime militia ships rose to 110+ Image
Over 1,000 U.S. Marines & Sailors embarked on amphibious transport dock USS Somerset (LPD 25) & amphibious dock landing ship USS Harpers Ferry (LSD 49) consolidated near Palawan, Philippines on 22 April to participate in 🇵🇭🇺🇸🇦🇺🇫🇷 Exercise Balikatan 2024.


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Balikatan brief—

- 39th iteration, ~3 weeks long
- Premiere annual military exercise
- 17,000 American, Philippine, Australian, & French personnel participating
- Philippine warships: BRP Davao del Sur, Ramon Alcaraz, & Antonio Luna
- High-end coastal defense activities, including counter-landing & sinking exercises
- First launch of an anti-ship missile from a Philippine Navy warship & the Air Force’s surface-to-air missiles
The U.S. Marine Corps' first new armored infantry landing craft in over 50 years—the Amphibious Combat Vehicle (ACV)—is embarked on the Boxer ARG. This is the first time they are both deployed & operational.
In a historic first, the 1st Multi-Domain Task Force successfully deployed the Army’s Mid-Range Capability (MRC) missile system to Northern Luzon, Philippines, on 11 April.

“A versatile capability—the MRC Launcher can fire Standard Missile 6 & Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles.”
“Exercise Balikatan is one of the most important exercises in the Pacific, & the 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit is proud to participate, shoulder-to-shoulder (“Balikatan”), with our fellow Philippine Marines,” said U.S. Marine Corps Col. Sean Dynan, commanding officer, 15th MEU.

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The 15th MEU will participate in each of the 4 combined joint all-domain operations events during this year’s exercise, highlighting the combined capabilities of the Marine Air-Ground Task Force & the Philippine Marine Corps’ 3rd Marine Brigade.

“Their training activities will include securing key maritime terrain to support territorial defense, conducting simulated long range, precision strike fires, & sensing & shooting surface threats with missile defense systems.”
Elevated Chinese PLA air activity around Taiwan just reported, with an early release from Taiwan’s defense ministry stating 22 aircraft were detected during a ~3 hour period from 0930. In the 24 hours before, 1 plane was identified.

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More from @ianellisjones

Ian Ellis Profile picture
Apr 26
China has the world’s largest Navy—& soon to be the world’s largest Air Force, U.S. Navy Adm Aquilino told Congress.

“The magnitude, scope, & scale of this security challenge cannot be understated.”

Today, the U.S. Air Force is the smallest it’s ever been, writes @defense_news:
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USAF “expects its fleet of fighters, bombers, tankers, cargo planes, drones, etc. to dip below 5,000 in FY2025, as retirements of older & outdated airframes outpace procurement of their replacements. The fleet could drop to 4,900 next year—but it may yet fall further.”
“Right now, the Air Force is as big as it will be,” USAF Maj. Gen. Dave Tabor said in a March interview.

“In light of the budget uncertainties, it’s really difficult to predict exactly what size [the fleet] will be, next year or five years from now.”
Read 11 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Apr 24
“Xi’s most critical choices reflect a march to war,” writes RADM (ret) Studeman.

“He may conclude he has everything to gain & nothing to lose by waiting. Xi’s absolute prioritization of security over the economy is the most telling of all war preparation indicators.” Must-read👇 Image
“A storm from Beijing is heading to Taiwan...

Although hopes were high that the Russo-Ukrainian War might deter Xi from folly over Taiwan, nothing in his behavior, speech, or actions so far suggests he is learning anything other than how to better prepare to subjugate Taiwan.”
“Xi is militarizing Chinese society and steeling his country for a potential high-intensity war. China’s trajectory signals deepening danger and a hardening of Xi’s intent to execute an act of aggression similar to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.” Image
Read 16 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Apr 22
TikTok is a “tool to exploit all of the things that are keeping us busy as a country right now—racial divide, political divide.

They’re exploiting every freedom that we enjoy as a democracy. It’s ingenious. It’s brilliant. It needs to be banned.”

Eye-opening @IndoPacPodcast 🧵
Retired Lt. Gen. Lori Reynolds, former Commander of Marine Cyber Force to @GordianKnotRay:

“This idea that it’s a violation of free speech is exactly the conversation they want us to have around TikTok. It feeds right into their strategy. So we just have to be smarter than them.”
“It’s just a masterful tool. The reality has changed—and we can't, and should not, allow them to continue to exploit our freedoms like this.”
Read 7 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Apr 20
What scares a retired Lt. General & Commander of Marine Cyber Force?

- China’s embedded “into as much of America’s critical infrastructure” as possible
- New, persistent approach to maintain access
- Significant operational capabilities
- Waiting for the opportune time

Quick 🧵
“The wake up call on this one is that we see now China is shifting from this intellectual property grab to a more persistent approach. Meaning embed yourself into as much of America's critical infrastructure as you can. And by critical infrastructure, we're talking water, energy, power, telecommunications.

Embed yourself. Keep checking to make sure that the accesses that you stole are still good. So you might see some repeat kind of visits to some of these infrastructures. And that signals to us that they are waiting to use these capabilities and these cyber accesses at a more opportune time.

Maybe as they are thinking about making a move on Taiwan. Maybe when the U.S. wants to do something in support of Israel. So it becomes more of an operational capability for them—if they're successful in maintaining these kind of clandestine accesses.

🚨 And that's what's changed. And that's what should scare us a little bit.”
Retired Lieutenant General Lori Reynolds, former U.S. Marine Corps Deputy Commandant for Information, joined @GordianKnotRay on @IndoPacPodcast for an eye-opening conversation on China’s cyber aggression.

Full episode 👇
Read 5 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Apr 20
As the dust settles, here’s what we know about Israel’s strike on Iran 🧵

- Launched drones & fired missiles from fighter aircraft outside of Iran
- Targeted a military base & radar site near Isfahan
- “Hit what they intended to strike”
- No U.S. involvement

New map & report: Image
Israel launched a retaliatory strike against Iran early Friday morning local time, in what’s being characterized as a “limited response,” targeting a military air base near Isfahan.

The aerial attack involved drones & firing missiles from fighter aircraft (outside of Iran). Image
The Israeli strike followed Iran’s attack on Saturday, when it fired 331 drones & missiles toward Israel.

“That attack brought the decades-long shadow war between Israel & Iran — waged on land, at sea, in air & in cyberspace — more clearly into the open.” (NYT)
Read 13 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Apr 10
New from @Noahpinion—Asia is a tinderbox

“WW3 will actually begin if & when the U.S. & China go to war. Almost everyone thinks this would happen if & when China attacks Taiwan, but in fact there are several other flashpoints that are just as scary & which many people seem to be overlooking.” 🧵Image
Definitely worth the read. Here are a few excerpts:

“So even as Europe and China become more deeply enmeshed in a proxy war, there are multiple flashpoints in Asia that could blossom into World War 3 any day now. Asia is an absolute tinderbox right now.”
“Being the guy who’s always shouting about impending disaster is frustrating, thankless work. If nobody listens to you, and the disaster happens, you’re a useless Cassandra. If nobody listens to you and the disaster luckily doesn’t happen, you’re viewed as a fool. If people do listen to you and they take action to successfully avert the disaster, a lot of people will still say that your warning was wrong and the precautions were unnecessary. The only way you’ll ever come out looking smart is if the disaster does happen, and people heed your warning in time to mitigate its impact. At that point, you’re Gandalf. But the problem with being Gandalf is that it involves a disaster actually happening, so it’s not exactly something you should hope for.” @Noahpinion
Read 10 tweets

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