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Emil Kastehelmi

Apr 16

One of the most significant current battles in Ukraine is taking place in the small city of Chasiv Yar.

In this thread, I will analyze the current situation, defensive preparations, terrain, participating units, various scenarios and future developments. 1/

Chasiv Yar is an important city. It’s the last somewhat larger built area before the crucial crossroads town of Kostiantynivka and other important cities in Donetsk. Encircling the city is difficult, as the Donets-Donbas canal forms a difficult obstacle for mechanized units. 2/

Ukraine has constructed several layers of trenches and other defensive positions north and south of Chasiv Yar. Even if the Russians managed to cross the canal at some point, they would still need to break through multiple fortified positions to seriously threaten the area. 3/

Read 19 tweets

Emil Kastehelmi

@emilkastehelmi

Mar 22

Russian Telegram channels are flooding with videos of a terrorist attack in Crocus City Hall, a music venue Moscow.

The video material suggests that there were at least four attackers, some sources say five. They were armed with fully automatic AK-type assault rifles. 1/

The building was set on fire during the attack. According to Ria Novosti, a Russian state media, the "fire is getting stronger". This means confirming the amount of dead and injured may take a while. 2/

t.me/rian_ru/237104

It's not known who is behind this, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was Islamic terrorists. Wouldn't be the first time in Russia.

It's interesting to see what will the official explanation for the attack be, who will they blame, and if they try to tie Ukraine to this. 3/

Read 9 tweets

Emil Kastehelmi

@emilkastehelmi

Feb 24

Dark months ahead for Ukraine.

The third year of the Russian full-scale invasion begins, and Ukraine is facing multiple difficulties. There's no room for optimism, as many problems can’t be solved in the coming months.

In this thread: Issues, threats and the future. 1/

While Ukraine was on the offensive in 2023, Russia silently amassed significant forces. Since mid-October, Russians have been attacking on multiple fronts. At the same time, Ukraine faces both external and internal challenges. Let’s start with the Ukrainian problems. 2/

Ukraine experienced unfortunate losses in 2023. The summer offensive was costly, but it didn’t reach any strategic goals. After the summer, the losses were increasingly difficult to fully replace. The military leadership likely saw the incoming problems. 3/

Read 17 tweets

Emil Kastehelmi

@emilkastehelmi

Feb 9

I watched Tucker Carlson’s interview with Putin. It exemplifies how a person who thinks too much of himself is put into the position of a useful idiot.

Dictators aren't interested in truth or journalism; those who think otherwise are only deceiving themselves. 1/ 🧵

Carlson's bias is well-known. He has repeatedly criticized Western media and leaned towards the Russian narrative.

Even though there was no critical element involved in the interview, he may have genuinely thought he still could get something valuable out of it. 2/

For me, the expectations were low. Everything Putin said was predictable, as is often the case with dictators. All the talking points have been heard before. The end result was a boring lecture, where Carlson was unable and likely also unwilling to challenge Putin. 3/

Read 8 tweets

Emil Kastehelmi

@emilkastehelmi

Jan 20

Russian operations in the Kupiansk direction have continued with varying intensity for months.

Russian gains have been very limited, but this evening the Russians announced that they have taken the village of Krokhmalne. 1/6

Ukrainians have also reported continuous Russian attacks in the Synkivka area. Despite Russian efforts, they haven't been able to punch through Synkivka, which would be the shortest route to Kupiansk.

There's also no indication of Russians continuing far beyond Krokhmalne. 2/

Krokhmalne, a small village with only a handful of houses, is the first Ukrainian village the Russians have been able to capture anywhere in months.

It's worth noting that they actually re-captured it, as Ukraine liberated the village in autumn 2022 (and took some POWs too). 3/

Read 7 tweets

Emil Kastehelmi

@emilkastehelmi

Jan 15

Ukrainian operations on the eastern bank of the Dnipro river, in the village of Krynky, have been ongoing since October 2023.

In this thread, I'll analyze the current situation and the future of the bridgehead in Krynky.

The thread includes high-resolution satellite images. 1/

A brief timeline of the events in the Dnipro River Delta since the liberation of Kherson. The “river war” has been a long process, often conducted in challenging conditions.

However, it has not generally been discussed as much in the media as some other sectors. 2/

In the village of Krynky, Ukrainian forces have been fighting a difficult battle for a prolonged time. The area controlled by Ukraine is small and natural cover is very limited. There is a forest next to the village, but it seems the Ukrainians have not advanced far into it. 3/

Read 23 tweets

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