Rob Gaudette Profile picture
Apr 28, 2024 8 tweets 6 min read Read on X
🔥Mutiny!

Crimean resistance group Atesh reports Cuban 🇨🇺 mercenaries killed their Russian commander due to “constant humiliation, beatings, and nonpayment of wages” in Donetsk.

Russia is the colonizer it says 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇬🇧 🇫🇷 🇩🇪 are.

1/


https://t.me/atesh_ua/4487
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Credit: Institute for the Study of War
Russia has recruited 10,000s impoverished men from India, Ghana, Cameroon, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Jordan, Iraq, China, Serbia, France, and other countries by promising $2,000/month.

☠️ Their survival is measured in hours, not days.

There’s an endless supply.

2/
https://kyivindependent.com/foreign-pows-on-being-lured-to-fight-for-russia-in-ukraine/
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In Cuba, Russia uses Facebook ads (@jason_kint follows Meta and its abuses closely) to lure men to the front.

The U.S. could do more by investigating @Meta for allowing mercenary recruitment.

3/
https://kyivindependent.com/foreign-pows-on-being-lured-to-fight-for-russia-in-ukraine/
https://kyivindependent.com/foreign-pows-on-being-lured-to-fight-for-russia-in-ukraine/
According the National Resistance Center of Ukraine, Russia recruits foreign mercenaries because it’s cheaper and causes less domestic upheaval.

The recruits are used in meat wave attacks. But it gets better!

4/
https://unn.ua/en/news/russia-recruits-mercenaries-abroad-due-to-high-cost-of-mobilization-in-the-country-intelligence
https://unn.ua/en/news/russia-recruits-mercenaries-abroad-due-to-high-cost-of-mobilization-in-the-country-intelligence
Russia is destabilizing Africa, especially in the Sahel and Central African Republic, by creating an “Africa Corps.”

The goal? Destabilizing and outcompeting the West. Russia supports dictators, exploits natural and human resources, and weaponizes migration against the EU.

5/

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Back to foreign mercenaries caught fighting for Russia in Ukraine.

A legal nightmare: if they become POWs, 🇺🇦 must treat them as such under the Geneva Conventions. It’s really hard to prove, under international law, that they’re mercenaries.

So, they can’t be prosecuted.

6/
https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/documents/atrocity-crimes/Doc.34_AP-I-EN.pdf
https://www.ohchr.org/en/node/3383/international-standards
Finally, a logistical nightmare.

The mercenary “POWs” don’t want to go back home, where they could face prosecution. Ukraine has to take care of them because it’s really resource-intensive to prove they’re mercenaries. And the home countries might not take them.

7/
https://kyivindependent.com/foreign-pows-on-being-lured-to-fight-for-russia-in-ukraine/
https://kyivindependent.com/foreign-pows-on-being-lured-to-fight-for-russia-in-ukraine/
The sooner Russia is crushed on the battlefields in Ukraine, the sooner this whole ecosystem collapses.

We must send Ukraine what it needs to win! I hope there will be another massive aid bill soon after the election.

Fin!

8/8

(Links are in alt text, btw).

https://africacenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Regional_disinfo_total_Africa_final.png
https://dailybrief.oxan.com/Analysis/GA267634/?code=nl0b423537-6562-4404-8802-e31e4b07141d
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More from @GaudetteRob

Aug 9, 2024
🧵 Lipetsk, Russia.

Ukraine sent what appears to be a large number of UAVs (unconfirmed what actually was sent) to the airbase there.

An ammunition depot was hit, and local residents recorded the sounds of planes leaving the airbase.

1/



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2/ This isn’t a run-of-the-mill airbase, though. This is home to the 4th State Center for Aircrew Training and Field Tests.

From 2016 to December 2022(?) Lt. Gen. Yuri Sushkov was in charge of training pilots on MiG and Su fighter bombers.

According to Kommersant, he retired.

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5504761
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3/ I could find very little to corroborate his retirement. Citing nothing, Russian Wikipedia reported that a Maj. Gen. Nikolai Mishkin has been the commander since August 2022.

Ukrainian sources claim Lt. Gen. Sushkov was liquidated. Take that with a large grain of salt.
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Read 6 tweets
Aug 4, 2024
🧵 Did a little digging on Victoria Pinchuk.

1. Like many Western billionaires, he launders his reputation by donating prolifically to influential charities and organizations (Gates, Clinton, Kyiv School of Economics), and documenting Russian war crimes.
2. However, he is currently selling critical wheels for Russian railway cars to Russia. As @Prune602 so thoroughly documents, railways are the lifeblood of Russian logistics, and their trains are in disrepair.

He’s also declaring their customs value at 0.1% of the true price. https://www.talk-finance.co.uk/international/victor-pinchuk-interpipe/
@Prune602 (This is to avoid paying taxes to the Ukrainian government.)

3. He also has significant operations in Russia, especially for gas and oil pipelines. Ukraine is actively targeting petrochemical facilities; they generate almost all of the Russian state’s revenue. https://www.talk-finance.co.uk/international/victor-pinchuk-interpipe/
Read 19 tweets
Jul 18, 2024
1/ AiM propaganda has Americans at each other’s throats. And the media’s failure to account for it buries one important aspect of the Russia-China axis to go underreported:

Ukraine, a fellow democracy, has trillions in mineral riches.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8870669/
https://open.substack.com/pub/thepeoplesmedia/p/beyond-projection-trumpist-propaganda?r=2k69qj&utm_medium=ios
2/ Ukraine supplies 90% of the neon needed to make advanced semiconductors in the U.S.

90%! And it’s the 5th largest gallium producer.

Our economy runs on oil and computers.

And our future economy will run on renewable energy. That takes beryllium, uranium, and lithium. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2024/07/the-future-of-critical-raw-materials-how-ukraine-plays-a-strategic-role-in-global-supply-chains/
3/ Ukraine has vast reserves of rare earth metals needed to power our future economy.

Look at the strips of rare earth elements (REE) Ukraine has. They’re everywhere. (Brighter blue).


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Read 8 tweets
Jun 15, 2024
1/ I focus on Crimea (Qırım) quite a bit. Catherine II annexed the peninsula in 1783, and created mythology around how it’s “naturally Russian.”

If the occupation of Qırım becomes untenable for Russia, the war is over. The Russian elites and population can’t accept losing it. Image
2/ Ukraine knows this. In the past month, I’ve seen a steady uptick in disinfo ops from both the Russian and Ukrainian sides. For example, Russia purported a radio in Kerch was hacked and played Ukrainian songs. (This is false).
2/ Ukraine knows this. In the past month, I’ve seen a steady uptick in disinfo ops from both the Russian and Ukrainian sides. For example, Russia purported a radio in Kerch was hacked and played Ukrainian songs. (This is false).
Read 10 tweets
Apr 21, 2024
🧵 Outstanding points made by @RepMcCormick in a hearing 2 weeks ago.

1. The war in Ukraine is obviously winnable.

2. Ukrainian victory is in the U.S.’s strategic security and economic interests.

3. The U.S. isn’t sending what Ukraine needs to win.

1/n
McCormick would know. He spent 20 years in the military, reaching the rank of commander in the Navy. He also was a helicopter pilot in the MarinesC and served in Africa, Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf. He’s also an ER doc, which checks out 🤣

2/n Image
@RepMcCormick asked whether the war is winnable to @US_EUCOM Supreme Allied Commander Gen. Cavoli, “which is the coolest title ever.”

Cavoli unequivocally answers “yes, with our Ukrainian colleagues.”

Read 11 tweets
Apr 17, 2024
Ukraine Supplemental 🧵

1. Personnel:
$207M - Army
$3.5M - Marines
$23M - Air Force
$4M - Space Force
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2. Operations and Maintenance

$4.888B - Army
$0.997B - Navy
$0.069B - Marine Corps
$0.371B - Air Force
$0.009B - Space Force
$27.931B - General Defense
• Includes $13.772B for USAI, of which ~$300M is used for replenishment, refurbishment, and repair

Subtotal: $34.265B
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3. Procurement

$2.743B - Missiles (Army)
$5.613B - Ammunition (Army)
$0.309B - Other (Army)
$0.707B - Weapons (Navy)
$0.212B - Unspecified (Marines)
$0.366B - Missiles (Air Force)
$3.284B - Other (Air Force)
$0.048B - Unspecified (General)

Subtotal: $13.282B ($3.11B missiles) Image
Read 19 tweets

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