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Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
@TheStudyofWar
Apr 28 • 7 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
NEW: Russia will likely make significant tactical gains in the coming weeks as Ukraine waits for US security assistance to arrive at the front but Russian forces remain unlikely to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses. 🧵Image
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2/ The arrival of US aid at the front in the coming weeks will allow Ukrainian forces to address their current materiel constraints and blunt ongoing Russian offensive operations...
3/ ...and Russian forces appear to be intensifying efforts to destabilize Ukrainian defenses and gain ground ahead of the arrival of the American security assistance.
4/ Russian forces have opportunities to make significant tactical gains in the Avdiivka area and pursue an operationally significant objective with the seizure of Chasiv Yar...
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5/ ...but neither of these efforts are likely to develop into an operationally significant penetration in the near term.

Well-provisioned Ukrainian forces will likely be able to prevent operationally significant Russian advances...
6/ ...during Russia’s expected summer offensive effort, although Russian forces will nevertheless leverage select advantages and adaptations to pose a significant threat to Ukraine this summer. Image
7/ Ukraine is very likely to stabilize the frontlines in the coming months and may be able to begin limited counteroffensive operations in late 2024 or early 2025.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 27, 2024: isw.pub/UkrWar042724Image

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More from @TheStudyofWar

Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Apr 29
The continued Russian stabilization of their salient northwest of Avdiivka presents the Russian command with a choice of continuing to push west towards its reported operational objective in Pokrovsk or trying to drive northwards to conduct possible complementary offensive operations with the Russian effort around Chasiv Yar. (1/4)Image
2/ Ukrainian officials have previously identified Pokrovsk as the Russian operational objective in the Avdiivka direction, and Syrskyi reiterated this assessment on April 28. Image
3/ Russian forces could alternatively decide to advance north from their tactical penetration in the Ocheretyne area along the H-20 (Donetsk City-Kostyantynivka) highway to pressure Ukrainian forces defending in the Toretsk area and possibly the operational rear of the Ukrainian defense in and west of Chasiv Yar.Image
Read 4 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Apr 29
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on April 28 that Ukrainian forces withdrew from Berdychi (northwest of Avdiivka) and Semenivka (west of Avdiivka) to positions further west in order to preserve Ukrainian personnel. 🧵
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2/ Syrskyi acknowledged that Russian forces are making tactical advances northwest of Avdiivka, and Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces have deployed up to four brigades to their tactical penetration in the Ocheretyne (northwest of Avdiivka) area.
3/ Russian forces have committed roughly a reinforced division’s worth of combat power to the frontline northwest of Avdiivka to stabilize a small salient in the area and pursue a wider penetration of the Ukrainian defense along the frontline west of Avdiivka.
Read 10 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Apr 29
NEW: Recent Russian gains NW of Avdiivka have prompted Ukrainian forces to withdraw from other tactical positions west of Avdiivka. These withdrawals have yet to facilitate rapid Russian tactical gains & don't portend an operationally significant penetration in the near term. 🧵Image
2/ Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on April 28 that Ukrainian forces withdrew from Berdychi (northwest of Avdiivka) and Semenivka (west of Avdiivka) to positions further west in order to preserve Ukrainian personnel. Image
3/ Syrskyi added that Ukrainian forces are committing elements of brigades that have undergone rest and reconstitution to stabilize the situation in the Avdiivka direction.
Read 5 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Apr 28
Russian forces are continuing to exploit a tactical penetration north and northwest of Avdiivka and recently made additional confirmed advances in the area. 🧵(1/6)

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2/ Geolocated footage published on April 27 shows that Russian forces advanced to northern Novokalynove (north of Avdiivka), and Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces completely seized the settlement on April 27.
3/ Some milbloggers also claimed that Russian forces advanced into Keramik (directly northwest of Novokalynove), although ISW has not yet observed visual evidence of Russian forces in Keramik.
Read 6 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Apr 26
NEW: Western media continues to report that select US officials have resumed discussing the idea of “freezing the lines” where they are because the latest package of US military assistance to Ukraine may not be enough for Ukraine to regain all of its territory. (🧵1/8)Image
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2/ Supporters of the current package have not claimed that it would by itself allow Ukraine to liberate all occupied territory, and the discussion of possible end states of the war is very premature as Pres. Biden signed the bill authorizing the new package only two days ago.
3/ US military assistance is currently en route to Ukraine and will take several weeks to arrive to frontline units and have tangible battlefield impacts.
Read 8 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Apr 26
Russian offensive operations west of Avdiivka aim to exploit opportunities for tactical gains while the Russian offensive operation to seize Chasiv Yar offers Russian forces the most immediate prospects for operationally significant advances. 🧵(1/8)

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2/ Russian forces in the Avdiivka area remain roughly 30 kilometers from their reported operational objective of Pokrovsk and roughly 17 kilometers from relatively large villages east of Pokrovsk.
3/ Even if Russian tactical gains do cause Ukrainian forces to withdraw to positions further west, the current Russian gains northwest of Avdiivka are unlikely to become operationally significant advances in the near term. Russian pressure on Chasiv Yar is more significant.
Read 8 tweets

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