The GPS-jammer affecting aircrafts around Estonia is located in Russia, about halfway to St Petersburg from Narva, Estonia.
This is shown by plotting the highest density of intersecting radio horizons of jammed aircrafts on a map.
Further, a drone-based method supports it.🧵
The GPS-jammer affecting aircrafts around Estonia is located in Russia, about halfway to St Petersburg from Narva, Estonia.
This can be shown by plotting the highest density of intersecting radio horizons of jammed aircrafts on a map.
Further, a drone-based method supports it.
This is a more zoomed in view of the likeliest position of the GPS-jammer operating around Estonia and recently famous for causing the brand new Helsinki - Tartu flight line to cease operating.
This took some time to make so I will continue the thread tomorrow with drones, more radio horizons and closer explanations.
Data available if interest is shown. Stay tuned.
I should add. The jammer over Estonia is very different in scope and temporal profile. A higher proportion of aircrafts are affected around Estonia and the jammer is almost always on. See plots.
Proportion measure (%) is a bit skewed during nights though, because there are so few planes in the air. And this effect is even stronger around Estonia. Plots show last months total number of observations for respective area.
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RUBY, infamous for repeating cycles of breaking down and working fine and ran out of Tromsö, NO on safety grounds, loaded with 20k tons ammonium nitrate is closing on heavily trafficked Dover Strait.
She has made good speed, straight course and precise turns last 36h.
Story is that her hull, rudder and propeller are broken to some extent and she needs repairs.
Her flag state is Malta and that is her stated destination. But Malta has signalled she wont even be allowed into territorial waters.
This was the state of her rudder and propulsion just a few days ago.
Estonian public service news @errnews claims that fertilizer ship RUBY is looking to dump its cargo of ammonium nitrate in the sea, citing NO maritime authority. @Sjofartsdir .
This is incorrect. RUBY is looking to unload. Src: direct contact.
RUBY is still stationary at the entrance of Skagerak. Nothing is going on judging from AIS-replay. RUBY is drifting and assistant tug AMBER II is driving around, very slowly.
@The_Lookout_N , whom I respect greatly, has an opinion slightly differing from mine:
Since midnight RUBY has drifted 7 NMi to northeast while her tug has been driving around very slowly.
Aside from a Turkish warship (greenish track) passing closely last night nothing exciting is found in AIS-replays.
NO coast guard is there since last night, but 30 NMi away.
Why do I care about bomb/fertilizer ship RUBY and why should you?
My profession is not shipping nor mil/intel. But my everyday work is doing risk-rewards analysis based on science and often incomplete data with high stakes cases.
Quite similar to RUBY-situation. Mini-thread.
I find the likelyhood of RUBY being a Russian bomb plot very low and other risks (ecological, collision, etc) a bit higher.
But, the consequences if bomb plot is there and it went off in a city would be unfathomable. Including a large war.
Given those two variables the only sane thing is to seek less risky solutions to the problem. I want our governments to do that.