The GPS-jammer affecting aircrafts around Estonia is located in Russia, about halfway to St Petersburg from Narva, Estonia.
This is shown by plotting the highest density of intersecting radio horizons of jammed aircrafts on a map.
Further, a drone-based method supports it.🧵
The GPS-jammer affecting aircrafts around Estonia is located in Russia, about halfway to St Petersburg from Narva, Estonia.
This can be shown by plotting the highest density of intersecting radio horizons of jammed aircrafts on a map.
Further, a drone-based method supports it.
This is a more zoomed in view of the likeliest position of the GPS-jammer operating around Estonia and recently famous for causing the brand new Helsinki - Tartu flight line to cease operating.
This took some time to make so I will continue the thread tomorrow with drones, more radio horizons and closer explanations.
Data available if interest is shown. Stay tuned.
I should add. The jammer over Estonia is very different in scope and temporal profile. A higher proportion of aircrafts are affected around Estonia and the jammer is almost always on. See plots.
Proportion measure (%) is a bit skewed during nights though, because there are so few planes in the air. And this effect is even stronger around Estonia. Plots show last months total number of observations for respective area.
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As for any observation based on AIS, AIS-caveats apply.
This data is possible to manipulate, @MarineTraffic is very buggy etc. That said, it is usually coherent with reality.
The Latvian ship Zircone, suspected of breaking Russian sanction and posing an environmental threat to Baltic Sea has during last 36h been inspected by SE fighter jets, coast guard and navy.
Right now, the Liberia-flagged tanker Suez Enchanted is about to do a ship to ship transfer with Zircone. Her last port is Primorsk, Russia and I suspect this is where the fuel comes from, which would make this even more illegal. Yet to be proven. @TankerTrackers
The Baltic Jammer is a Russian GPS jammer that since Dec -23 has affected the navigation of 1000's of civilian & military aircraft.
Old method, new dataset, even more obvious.
Finally, data to disprove me. Thread 🧵
These maps depict density of radio horizons calculated from the first positions where 11496 aircrafts lost navigation from Feb to now. Altitude based method.
Below more zoom levels. There is no longer any doubt in my mind. The Jammer is in Kaliningrad, I believe at the coast.
I made this analysis twice before, with less refiend data.
Here is todays refined set but run with the same settings as in January. The Baltic Jammer is clearly in Kaliningrad.
Baltic Jammer has been running for 47 consecutive hours making this the longest run ever.
Red dots show affected area. Yesterday at 22:00Z it changed into a new configuration, green dots.
1614 unique airplanes affected, most of them civilian airliners.
Green dot map show the new configuration fully focused on almost exlusively Polish controlled airspace (Warzawa FIR), leaving a nice clear corridor for Kaliningrad-flights.
Here you can see the full metrics for last 3 days. These might need adjustment since the jammer is changing.
Today the Baltic Jammer changed. Starting with normal characteristic yesterday, after running for ~11h 0720Z there was a sudden change in area affected.
A NW sector of about 140°-180° is spared from GPS-jamming since then. It has made the problem almost exclusively Polish.
Still images of the periods before and after 0720 this morning. Each dot is a message of NIC 1-6 (low GPS quality).
The Estonia area is another jamming process, with other temporality/spatiality. It is almost always on.
Me and @rundradion discovered it about the same time from our plots.
Suddenly the metrics were different, not clear, not fully on.
When its off the % is at 0 with very few blips, see the period preceeding yesterdays start up.