auonsson Profile picture
Apr 29, 2024 6 tweets 3 min read Read on X
The GPS-jammer affecting aircrafts around Estonia is located in Russia, about halfway to St Petersburg from Narva, Estonia.

This is shown by plotting the highest density of intersecting radio horizons of jammed aircrafts on a map.

Further, a drone-based method supports it.🧵 Image
The GPS-jammer affecting aircrafts around Estonia is located in Russia, about halfway to St Petersburg from Narva, Estonia.

This can be shown by plotting the highest density of intersecting radio horizons of jammed aircrafts on a map.

Further, a drone-based method supports it. Image
This is a more zoomed in view of the likeliest position of the GPS-jammer operating around Estonia and recently famous for causing the brand new Helsinki - Tartu flight line to cease operating.

See this and linked posts for methodology.
Image
This took some time to make so I will continue the thread tomorrow with drones, more radio horizons and closer explanations.

Data available if interest is shown. Stay tuned. Image
I should add. The jammer over Estonia is very different in scope and temporal profile. A higher proportion of aircrafts are affected around Estonia and the jammer is almost always on. See plots. Image
Proportion measure (%) is a bit skewed during nights though, because there are so few planes in the air. And this effect is even stronger around Estonia. Plots show last months total number of observations for respective area. Image

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More from @auonsson

Feb 15
There is an estimated 1 in 10k-100k years chance that all 8 of the Nov 2024 - Jan 2025 Baltic Sea cable breaks are coincidental.
Data is hard to get by but no matter which real data or reasonable assumption one picks it is very unlikely all 8 of them are explained by chance.
🧵 Image
Illustration of a 1 in 108 908 years chance that all 8 of the Nov 2024 - Jan 2025 Baltic Sea cable breaks happens with present background levels. Above is 1 in 10 609 years illustrated. Image
Two alternative ways of illustrating the extremely low probability of the Baltic Cable breaks being normal. Red dots in each, promise! Image
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Read 15 tweets
Jan 19
Washington Post has again managed to find anon sources saying Russia is not doing bad things in the Baltic Sea.

They got the infographic quite wrong, so I fixed it.

They also have a named source, within mil intel, completely contradicting their headline.

Nice one WaPo! Image
Image
Washington Post today presented a wholly incomplete infographics on Baltic Sea infrastructure incidents.

Actually damaged structures: 13, presented by WaPo as 4-5.

Actual # incidents: 4, WaPo found 3.

Here is the fix. Image
According to WaPo and their anons "there is an emerging consensus that it is all accidents"

Yet officials in actual positions are ordering very expensive and resource intensive mission as we speak.

Article archived: archive.is/7JcKG
Read 9 tweets
Jan 14
'If something were to happen Denmark might have to answer to why JAZZ was not boarded and inspected'

Experts agree: Denmark should inspect broken tanker JAZZ. No one thinks they will

Naval officer, maritime law scholar + analyst says 'Do it'

DK authorities: no reply. URL👇 Image
Original link: danwatch.dk/skyggeskib-bro…
Archive-link: archive.is/0nGfY
"Of course three propulsion breakdowns should lead to a port state control" says professor of maritime law Cossen in the article.

JAZZ is loaded with 50k ton oil and has serious issues with her machinery. Broke down thrice last 14 days and needed tug assistance once.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 4, 2024
Excited intel bots project:

Leading online authorities on shipping, @johnkonrad & @mercoglianos, are popular targets in the network of intel bots I am looking into.

Bots are mainly agreeing and praising, but sometimes seemingly nudging them in other direction. Hard to say from limited material.Image
Some example posts:
1 Snarky
2 Strong agree
3 Poor bot cant sleep

In total the bots I found have posted or quoted John and Sal 69 times, but that is likely just a fraction of the total. Image
Image
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Full text of all replies and quotes with datetimes and urls from excited intel bots to @johnkonrad and @mercoglianos in this csv.

Not complete, there is likely much more. Eventually I will release all posts I have found and the metadata/relation data.

pastequest.com/?767a9ebaf875c…
Read 7 tweets
Nov 2, 2024
I have identified 28 bots targeting intel/mil/geopol/logistics/energy people. They reply, follow and quote and are most often very enthusiastic.

End game is unknown, but a guess is recruitment or information gathering. Maybe just influence.

Anyway, here they are, in network shape.Image
Some of the texts the excited intel-bots produce and post to other users.

Will eventually be released in a more sane format.
In this thread I started collecting the excited intel-bots. Lots of examples of what they post and how I differentiate them.
Read 17 tweets
Oct 26, 2024
This US Super Hercules transport landing in Denmark from US base Rota in Spain avoided French air space to Denmark. (But not *to* Rota)

Previous days it has visited among other places Rammstein, Aviano, Incirlik, Akrotiri.

What are you shipping around? Previous days, next tweet.Image
23 Rammstein, DE/US - Aviano, IT - Incirlik, TR
24 Incirlik, TR ? Akrotiri, CY ? Rammstein, DE/US
25 Rammstein, DE/US - Tartu, EE ? Vilnius, LV - Rammstein, DE/US MEDEVAC
26 Rammstein, DE/US - Rota, ES/US- Aalborg, DK

19-5945 / AE6960
globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=ae6960&l…Image
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More similar problems but for a civilian flight. Maybe just an ATC production level issue?

Read 4 tweets

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