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Markus Jonsson Profile picture
@auonsson
Apr 29 • 6 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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The GPS-jammer affecting aircrafts around Estonia is located in Russia, about halfway to St Petersburg from Narva, Estonia.

This is shown by plotting the highest density of intersecting radio horizons of jammed aircrafts on a map.

Further, a drone-based method supports it.🧵 Image
The GPS-jammer affecting aircrafts around Estonia is located in Russia, about halfway to St Petersburg from Narva, Estonia.

This can be shown by plotting the highest density of intersecting radio horizons of jammed aircrafts on a map.

Further, a drone-based method supports it. Image
This is a more zoomed in view of the likeliest position of the GPS-jammer operating around Estonia and recently famous for causing the brand new Helsinki - Tartu flight line to cease operating.

See this and linked posts for methodology.
Image
This took some time to make so I will continue the thread tomorrow with drones, more radio horizons and closer explanations.

Data available if interest is shown. Stay tuned. Image
I should add. The jammer over Estonia is very different in scope and temporal profile. A higher proportion of aircrafts are affected around Estonia and the jammer is almost always on. See plots. Image
Proportion measure (%) is a bit skewed during nights though, because there are so few planes in the air. And this effect is even stronger around Estonia. Plots show last months total number of observations for respective area. Image

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More from @auonsson

Markus Jonsson Profile picture
Apr 22
Confirmation bias beware, but with last weeks news on shadow fleets in Baltics and EU-level talks, I wonder if something is brewing...

Just now DE coastguard and DK navy has taken up shadowing of a tanker last seen in/next to naval docks of Baltiysk, Kaliningrad. Dest: Egypt
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmat…
Image
As for any observation based on AIS, AIS-caveats apply.
This data is possible to manipulate, @MarineTraffic is very buggy etc. That said, it is usually coherent with reality.
Read 6 tweets
Markus Jonsson Profile picture
Apr 17
The Latvian ship Zircone, suspected of breaking Russian sanction and posing an environmental threat to Baltic Sea has during last 36h been inspected by SE fighter jets, coast guard and navy.

All the while continuing her activities.

I suppose SE state is building a case.
Five days ago Greenpeace activists wrote

"OIL FUELS WAR PEOPLE WANT PEACE"

on the side of the tanker.

Some days before that the suspected sanctions rounding practice was big news in Sweden and ministers promised action.

greenpeace.org/sweden/artikla…
Image
Right now, the Liberia-flagged tanker Suez Enchanted is about to do a ship to ship transfer with Zircone. Her last port is Primorsk, Russia and I suspect this is where the fuel comes from, which would make this even more illegal. Yet to be proven. @TankerTrackers Image
Read 5 tweets
Markus Jonsson Profile picture
Apr 6
The Baltic Jammer is in Kaliningrad.

5th proof, 3rd method.

This time with numbers on likelyhood. We just need a statistician to tell us how sure we are. Surely over 9000.

@PajalaJussi computed how many radio horizons of first jammed plane intersect. Here, heatmapped. Image
The Baltic Jammer is in Kaliningrad. 5th proof, 3rd method.

This time with numbers on likelyhood. We just need a statistician to tell us how sure we are.

@PajalaJussi computed how many radio horizons of first jammed plane intersect. Here, all 10x10km cells. Image
This part of the map is obviously the most interesting one. The KALININGRAD part.

Top cells in KGD have +60k circles intersecting, mean is around 4k.

All the top cells (ie most likely ones) are concentrated around the central cape of KGD, where also the highest peaks are. Image
Read 10 tweets
Markus Jonsson Profile picture
Mar 30
The Baltic Jammer is in Kaliningrad.

The Baltic Jammer is a Russian GPS jammer that since Dec -23 has affected the navigation of 1000's of civilian & military aircraft.

Old method, new dataset, even more obvious.

Finally, data to disprove me. Thread 🧵 Image
These maps depict density of radio horizons calculated from the first positions where 11496 aircrafts lost navigation from Feb to now. Altitude based method.

Below more zoom levels. There is no longer any doubt in my mind. The Jammer is in Kaliningrad, I believe at the coast.
Image
Image
I made this analysis twice before, with less refiend data.

Here is todays refined set but run with the same settings as in January. The Baltic Jammer is clearly in Kaliningrad.

Link to previous analysis:
Image
Read 11 tweets
Markus Jonsson Profile picture
Mar 24
Baltic Jammer has been running for 47 consecutive hours making this the longest run ever.

Red dots show affected area. Yesterday at 22:00Z it changed into a new configuration, green dots.

1614 unique airplanes affected, most of them civilian airliners. Image
Green dot map show the new configuration fully focused on almost exlusively Polish controlled airspace (Warzawa FIR), leaving a nice clear corridor for Kaliningrad-flights. Image
Here you can see the full metrics for last 3 days. These might need adjustment since the jammer is changing. Image
Read 10 tweets
Markus Jonsson Profile picture
Mar 18
Today the Baltic Jammer changed. Starting with normal characteristic yesterday, after running for ~11h 0720Z there was a sudden change in area affected.

A NW sector of about 140°-180° is spared from GPS-jamming since then. It has made the problem almost exclusively Polish.
Still images of the periods before and after 0720 this morning. Each dot is a message of NIC 1-6 (low GPS quality).

The Estonia area is another jamming process, with other temporality/spatiality. It is almost always on.
Image
Image
Me and @rundradion discovered it about the same time from our plots.
Suddenly the metrics were different, not clear, not fully on.
When its off the % is at 0 with very few blips, see the period preceeding yesterdays start up.

Image
Read 5 tweets

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