1/ @konrad_muzyka has published an excellent if rather gloomy thread on the current situation in Ukraine. In the interests of helping it to reach a wider audience, I thought an English translation would be useful.
https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1784875510805262538
2/ "I invite you to a short thread about the current situation on the frontline. In short, the situation looks very bad and is not expected to improve in the coming weeks.
3/ There are three reasons for the current state of affairs and in principle there is nothing revelatory here, as the problems on the Ukrainian side have been known for a long time: lack of ammunition, manpower, fortifications.
4/ To illustrate the shortage of artillery ammunition, it is enough to mention that there are units on the Ukrainian side whose expenditure has decreased by 70-90% compared to the summer of 2023.
5/ Artillery fire is limited to a minimum and often has to be authorised by brigade commanders.
In this context, US assistance is now crucial, as it will reduce the disparity between Russian and Ukrainian numbers.
In this context, US assistance is now crucial, as it will reduce the disparity between Russian and Ukrainian numbers.
6/ But we are still talking here about reducing asymmetry, not about reaching parity. Ukrainian restrictions on access to guns and barrels will effectively affect the number of bombardments the Ukrainians can conduct.
7/ But what comes from the US will not change the course of this war, it will only delay it. We continue to wait for long-term and systemic solutions, both from the US and Europe, and the presentation of a concrete plan for Ukraine's military support in this war ...
8/ ... that would allow it to focus on planning (together with Western advisors) and conducting operations on the frontline to regain the initiative.
The start of fortification construction was delayed.
The start of fortification construction was delayed.
9/ In the context of emerging reports of potential Russian attacks towards Chernihiv, Sumy and Kharkiv (in my opinion, this information is part of Russia's reflexive control mechanism [see ]), Kyiv was faced with the dilemma of choosing a priority area.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflexive…
10/ Analysing publicly available satellite images of the areas where Russia is currently leading the assault (Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka directions), there are no visible fortified lines.
11/ It seems that the Ukrainians have focused on building up resistance strongpoints, which are, however, vulnerable to flanking manoeuvres, which is already taking place. It remains to be hoped that additional fortifications are being created deep inside the Donetsk region.
12/ However, the shortage of soldiers is the key factor that will have the greatest impact on developments on the front in the next 3-4 months.
13/ During this time, newly mobilised soldiers will begin to appear on the frontline, but there is also the possibility that their training time will be reduced to a minimum in the event of a Russian breakthrough or a shortage of reserves.
14/ In that case, Ukraine could find itself in the same situation as Russia in September 2022 [i.e. facing a localised collapse, as happened to Russia in the Kharkiv region].
15/ We are currently seeing attempts to fill gaps in the front line by moving units from other directions, and engaging the 47th Mechanised Brigade or the 3rd Assault Brigade.
16/ However, such actions are difficult to sustain in the months ahead due to personnel losses on the Ukrainian side.
17/ We have reached the point where the situation on the frontline is the worst since March 2022. The Russians' numerical superiority continues to grow, and so does the number of attacks. Ukraine has not survived the darkest hour. It is yet to begin." /end 
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