The Kobeissi Letter Profile picture
Apr 30 5 tweets 2 min read Read on X
You can't make this up:

New evidence suggests the Bank of Japan INTERVENED on Monday when the Japanese Yen crashed.

At 9:30 PM ET on Sunday night, the Japanese Yen weakened to 160 against the US Dollar for the first time since 1990.

Then, exactly 2.5 hours after the headlines came out, the ratio just crashed from 160.20 to 156.50.

Today, the BOJ said its current account will fall 7.56 TRILLION YEN, or $48.2 billion USD, more than TRIPLE previous expectations.

Did the BOJ just artificially prop up their currency minutes after it collapsed?

Something didn't add up.

(1/5)Image
That's when we posted the below asking if "someone just intervened?"

It simply didn't make sense that the currency crashed just minutes after hitting the 160 threshold.

The latest data suggests that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) intervened on Monday.

(2/5)

Image
The BOJ reported Tuesday that its current account will fall 7.56 TRILLION YEN, or $48.2 billion USD.

This is "due to fiscal factors including government bond issuance and tax payments on Wednesday."

That’s more than TRIPLE the estimated drop of 2.1 trillion yen.

(3/5) Image
This means that the BOJ likely intervened with $5.5 TRILLION Yen for the first time since 2022.

It also means that Japanese authorities are increasingly worried about currency devaluation.

Future intervention will likely hold less credibility as confidence degrades.

(4/5) Image
Japan now has a 263% Debt-to-GDP ratio.

As the BOJ is struggling to raise rates, the Yen continues to weaken against the Dollar.

A preview of what will happen if the US doesn't reduce deficit spending.

Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.

(5/5)

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More from @KobeissiLetter

Apr 16
December 13th, 2023, the day that the Fed made its biggest mistake:

This was arguably worse than the Fed's 2021 call that inflation was "transitory."

The Fed seemingly declared victory against inflation and we are now paying the price.

What was the Fed thinking?

🧵 (1/10)
To better understand what happened here, we must first look just a couple weeks prior to the clip above.

Just 2 weeks before their Fed meeting, on December 1st, Powell said:

Talking of cutting interest rates are "premature."

This came with little surprise to markets.

(2/10) Image
Since the Fed began raising interest rates in March 2022, we have seen countless market calls for a "Fed pivot."

Just about every time prior to December 2023, Powell would say the same thing.

It was simply too soon to begin thinking about interest rate cuts.

(3/10) Image
Read 10 tweets
Dec 17, 2023
BREAKING: Average home payment for a homebuyer hits a record $3,322/month, according to WSJ.

Meanwhile, the average cost to rent a home is at a record $2,184/month.

It is now less affordable than any time in history to buy a home in the US.

This is a crisis.

(a thread)

1/11
Here's a chart showing the monthly payment on a new mortgage versus renting.

At $3,322/month, a homebuyer would be spending ~$40,000/year on home payments.

That's ~67% of the median POST-TAX household income.

Renting costs ~$26,000/year or ~43% of median post-tax income.

2/11 Image
The main issue is that the median home price is RISING with interest rates.

Historically speaking, periods with rising rates came with lower real housing prices.

Currently, the median home is selling for ~$400,000 while mortgage rates are at ~7%.

This is unsustainable.

3/11 Image
Read 12 tweets
Dec 15, 2023
It's the first day after a 2-week Fed blackout.

The first comment after the blackout ended was by NY Fed President Williams.

He said the Fed is NOT talking about rate cuts now.

This is the exact OPPOSITE of what Powell said on Wednesday.

The Fed messed up.

(a thread)

1/10
What is a Fed blackout?

It's a period of time around Fed meetings where Fed members are restricted in speaking about Fed policy.

This is designed to limit conflicting messages and market confusion around Fed meetings.

The blackout period ended yesterday at midnight.

2/10
Prior to Wednesday's Fed meeting, the Fed had maintained the same view all year.

This view was that rate cuts were distant and more hikes MAY be needed.

With core inflation at 4%, double the Fed's long-term target, this made sense.

The Fed's messages were consistent.

3/10
Read 11 tweets
Nov 30, 2023
JUST IN: Users on X are reporting mass cancellations of Disney+, $DIS, subscriptions after Elon Musk interview.

Within just hours of Elon Musk's interview, thousands of users have posted screenshots of cancelled Disney+ subscriptions.

In addition to Disney+, users are reporting cancellations of Paramount Plus and others.

This comes after Elon Musk accused some advertisers of blackmailing X with advertising money.

Disney's CEO, Bob Iger, was specifically called out.
Image
Since its 2021 high, Disney, $DIS, is down ~53% and has erased ~$180 billion in value.

As streaming becomes more competitive Disney+ has been facing pressure.

Disney's next earnings call should be interesting.

Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.
POLL: Are you cancelling your Disney+ subscription because of Elon Musk's interview yesterday?
Read 4 tweets
Nov 11, 2023
In May, we saw credit default swaps spike sharply as fears of a US default increased.

The swaps jumped ~120% in 2 months and then fell ~70% after the debt ceiling crisis "ended."

Here's the chart for these same credit default swaps.

The swaps are now up ~60% since June even as we continue to hear that the debt ceiling crisis is over.

On Friday, Moody's cut their US credit outlook from stable to negative.

This comes just a couple months after S&P cut their US credit rating for the first time since 2011.

Deficit spending is out of control.
Image
Since the debt ceiling "crisis" ended, total US debt is up over $2 trillion.

Since 2020, total US debt is officially up more than $10 TRILLION.

In 2024, we will have the first ever year with $1 trillion+ in US interest expense.

Interest is now our second largest expense. Image
In 2023, the US posted its 3rd largest deficit on record, at $1.7 TRILLION.

This was a $300 billion increase when compared to 2022.

The US is now spending 44% of GDP per year, the same levels as World War 2.

We are spending at recession levels and calling for a "soft landing." Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 24, 2023
Something is happening in the San Francisco real estate market.

Take a look at this house listed for sale.

In 2015, the owner purchased the property for $1.4 million, 27% ABOVE the asking price.

Now, 8 years later, the property is listed for $1.1 million, 22% BELOW what the owner paid for it.

This homeowner now has "negative equity" which is a growing trending impact 1.2 MILLION homeowners in the US.

Could this be the beginning of a bubble bursting?
Image
According to Corelogic, 1.2 million mortgages are now "underwater."

Homeowners with mortgages (63% of all properties) saw equity decrease by of $108.4 billion over the last year.

In California, the average home lost $60,000 in equity in just 1 year.

This is not sustainable. Image
Here's a look at home prices growth rates in San Francisco specifically.

While they had years of robust growth, home prices are now down 5% YoY.

Home prices in San Francisco are falling at their fastest pace since 2011.

Supply is hitting the market rapidly in SF. Image
Read 6 tweets

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