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Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
@TheStudyofWar
May 2 • 3 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Russian forces recently advanced NW of Avdiivka & reportedly made additional gains. Geolocated footage published on May 1 indicates that Russian forces advanced SW and west of Solovyove, and Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced further towards Sokil. (1/3)

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2/ Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces recently broke through Ukrainian defenses northeast of Ocheretyne (northwest of Avdiivka) and have been operating within southern Arkhanhelske (northeast of Ocheretyne and north of Avdiivka) for the past two days.
3/ Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced in fields southwest and northwest of Ocheretyne, west of Novokalynove (north of Avdiivka), northwest of Keramik (north of Avdiivka), and east of Novooleksandrivka (NW of Avdiivka and Ocheretyne). isw.pub/UkrWar050124
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More from @TheStudyofWar

Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
May 4
NEW: Ukrainian officials continue to highlight that Russia’s main goal for 2024 remains the seizure of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts as Russian forces plan for their summer 2024 offensive operation. (🧵1/7)Image
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2/ UKR Ground Forces Commander LTG Oleksandr Pavlyuk reiterated in a May 3 interview w/The Times that Russia’s offensive goals in 2024 are to seize all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and that RU forces may attempt to seize the rest of Zaporizhia Oblast in 2024 if they seize the Donbas.
3/ Pavlyuk reiterated that Russian forces have a plan to seize Kharkiv or Sumy cities but noted that it is unclear how serious this plan is or whether Russian forces will be capable of capturing one or both of the cities.
Read 7 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
May 3
Russian forces recently made confirmed advances west of Avdiivka amid continued Russian offensive operations in the area on May 2. Geolocated footage published on May 2 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced north of Ocheretyne and south of Pervomaiske. (1/4)Image
2/ Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced 3.85 kilometers wide and two kilometers deep into central Arkhanhelske (northeast of Ocheretyne and north of Avdiivka) from Ocheretyne and Keramik (north of Avdiivka).
3/ Russian milbloggers also claimed that Russian forces advanced southwest of Solovyove (northwest of Avdiivka) and near Netaylove (west of Avdiivka). ISW has not observed visual evidence of any of these claims, however. Image
Read 5 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
May 3
NEW: Ukrainian and US officials issued assessments consistent with prior ISW forecasts that Russian forces may take Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast but are very unlikely to seize major Ukrainian cities. (1/2)Image
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2/ Ukrainian intelligence officials also identified three Russian efforts to destabilize Ukraine and achieve victory.

Details in the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for May 2, 2024: isw.pub/UkrWar050224



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3/
Read 5 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
May 2
Ukrainian forces struck an oil refinery in Ryazan Oblast for the second time in less than a month on the night of April 30 to May 1.

Additional key takeaways ⬇️(1/5)
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2/ Russian state-run news outlets appear to be amplifying anti-Western rhetoric from former Georgian Prime Minister and founder of the Georgian Dream party Bidzina Ivanishvili and are negatively portraying Georgians protesting against Georgia’s “foreign agents” bill, likely in an attempt to destabilize and divide Georgia.
3/ The United Nations (UN) and Western organizations continue to demonstrate how North Korea and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are directly and indirectly helping Russia’s war effort.
Read 5 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
May 1
Geolocated footage published on April 29 indicates that Russian forces advanced up to the east side of the Siverskyi-Donets Donbas Canal south of Chasiv Yar in an area where the canal flows underground. (1/4)Image
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2/ A Ukrainian reconnaissance platoon commander operating in the Chasiv Yar area reported on April 30 that Russian special operations forces (SSO) have started to operate more frequently at night...
3/ ...and that Russian forces continue efforts to bypass Chasiv Yar from the flanks via Bodanivka from the northeast and Ivanivske from the east and are deploying reinforcements to reach the Siverskyi-Donetsk Donbas Canal.
Read 4 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Apr 30
The Kremlin is pursuing a hybrid campaign directly targeting NATO states, including using GPS jamming and sabotaging military logistics in NATO members’ territory. 🧵(1/8)
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2/ @FT reported on April 29 that Baltic ministers are warning that Russia is behind recent cases of GPS jamming that have interfered with commercial navigation signals and forced two Finnair flights to turn back in the middle of flights from Helsinki to Tartu in the past week.
3/ @FT estimated that GPS jamming has affected “tens of thousands” of civilian flights in recent months.
Read 8 tweets

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