Thread by @nickschifrin

In his final interview after 3 years as @INDOPACOM Commander and a 40-year career, Adm. "Lung" Aquilino and I talk Philippines, Taiwan, Tik-Tok, regional balance of power:
"As I look at over my 3 years, the security environment has changed drastically, and not in a good way."

On Chinese water cannon, laser, boat attacks on Philippine Coast Guard:
"Chinese actions are certainly destabilizing to the region. They are putting at risk the Philippine Coast Guardsmen, sailors, and those fishermen that operate in their EEZ within full rights of Philippines"

Q: If one of these incidents becomes deadly, that becomes a very serious challenge for the U.S. and for the military--

Aquilino: "That could absolutely be a challenge for the United States, again, through the policy level."

Q: Have Chinese not paid enough price for their actions?
Aquilino: "They have clearly made a risk determination that taking aggressive actions is within their interests and to the benefit of their strategic objectives."

On Taiwan: "The US supports the peaceful resolution of this dispute to the satisfaction of people on both sides of the straits, free of coercion. And the issue here is, we are not in the free-of-coercion space. Increased aggressiveness...

"in the maritime domain, in the air domain, in the cyber domain, and in the information domain, and not just against the mainland island of Taiwan, but against Matsu, Kinmen, and the other places that we are watching more aggressive behavior."

On Taiwan's steps to defend itself: "They have absolutely taken steps in the wake of the Ukraine invasion to understand the unthinkable is potentially real. And they have taken all the right steps. As it applies to their defense, they get a choice on what they should buy..."

On Chinese support for Russia's defense industrial base: "What I can watch from this side is the ability of Beijing to utilize a cover of civil-military fusion to be able to provide capabilities to the Russians below the level of direct lethal aid."

Q: Are you concerned that North Korean missiles are getting battle tested in Ukraine, and could destabilize Korean Peninsula?
"Absolutely.... We are concerned about the access to increased technology in North Korea...

"But the main theme that's really concerning here and that everyone has to see is, it links authoritarian nations in ways that we haven't seen in our history in a long, long time."

Q: Would you let your family use TikTok?
Aquilino: "I have encouraged my daughters not to. There is a risk there, right, the intelligence gathering risk, the information, misinformation and disinformation transmission that we see. That's the reason I prohibited it here."

On the importance of a regional joint task force: "The more aggressive rhetoric, and certainly the more aggressive actions over my three years, have led me to a place where the synchronization of our force is required...

"and the best way to do that is by putting in place a standing joint task force to totally and seamlessly integrate our operations, our actions, our plans in order to be postured in a fight tonight stance."

Q: What have you not accomplished that you hoped you would?
Aquilino: "I haven't been able to drive the entire machine to move faster. I don't think we have accelerated enough across all domains and all areas to be able to...

"accelerate the delivery of deterrent effects and ultimately posture ourselves in a position that is really where we need to be in this current security environment. For all of us, we all have to continue to go faster."

Q: Do you think you have a legacy after three years?
Aquilino: "Everybody gets a legacy, whether they like it or not. I will let other people write the history."

Our full interview with outgoing @INDOPACOM commander Adm. Aquilino: