Foreign Affairs and Defense Correspondent @Newshour. Husband, dad. Former Kabul, Islamabad, Jerusalem, London. nschifrin@newshour.org Signal: nickschifrin.35
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Nov 22 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
BREAKING: After talking to @SecRubio, @SenatorRounds announces that the 28 point plan was a Russian document, not a US document.
Full @SenatorRounds: "@SecRubio did make a phone call to us this afternoon. I think he made it very clear to us that we are the recipients of a proposal that was delivered to one of our representatives. It is not our recommendation, it is not our peace plan. It is a proposal that was received. And as an intermediary, we have made arrangements to share it. And we did not release it. It was leaked. It was not released by our members or our representatives... This is an opportunity to receive it and that it has been utilized and delivered to the Ukrainians, and that they will have an opportunity to respond. And in doing so, you now have one side being presented and the opportunity for the other side to respond."
MORE from @SenAngusKing: "The leaked 28-point plan, which, according to @SecRubio, is not of the administration's position--it is essentially the wish list of the Russians."
Nov 20 • 4 tweets • 5 min read
I've obtained the the 28-point plan drafted by the Trump Administration to try to end the war in Ukraine, and that is at the center of a pivotal diplomatic visit by @SecArmy. US officials emphasize it's a working document, with edits from both sides.
Highlights:
- References "reliable security guarantees," for Ukraine, and says "It is expected that Russia will not invade neighboring countries"
- Ukraine would have to give up the rest of Donetsk, and that territory would be internationally recognized as Russian, but demilitarized
- The US would then recognize the Donbas, occupied Crimea, and the occupied portions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, as "de facto Russian"
- NATO would pledge never to admit Ukraine
- "Full amnesty" for "all parties."
- Ukraine's military capped at 600,000
- No NATO troops "stationed" in Ukraine
- US would lift sanctions on Russia "in stages and on a case-by-case basis."
- $100 billion in frozen Russian assets earmarked for Ukrainian reconstruction
- Ukraine would hold elections in 100 days.
Full text: 1. Ukraine's sovereignty will be confirmed.
2. A comprehensive and comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Ukraine and Europe. All ambiguities of the last 30 years will be considered settled.
3. It is expected that Russia will not invade neighbouring countries and NATO will not expand further.
4. A dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States, to resolve all security issues and create conditions for de-escalation in order to ensure global security and increase opportunities for cooperation and future economic development.
5. Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees.
6. The size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be limited to 600,000 personnel.
7. Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO, and NATO agrees to include in its statutes a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future.
8. NATO agrees not to station troops in Ukraine.
9. European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland.
10. US guarantee:
▪ The US will receive compensation for the guarantee.
▪ If Ukraine invades Russia, it will lose the guarantee.
▪ If Russia invades Ukraine, in addition to a decisive coordinated military response, all global sanctions will be reinstated, recognition of the new territory and all other benefits of this deal will be revoked.
▪ If Ukraine launches a missile at Moscow or St. Petersburg without cause, the security guarantee will be deemed invalid.
11. Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will receive short-term preferential access to the European market while this issue is being considered.
12. A powerful global package of measures to rebuild Ukraine, including but not limited to:
a. The creation of a Ukraine Development Fund to invest in fast-growing industries, including technology, data centres, and artificial intelligence.
b. The United States will cooperate with Ukraine to jointly rebuild, develop, modernise, and operate Ukraine's gas infrastructure, including pipelines and storage facilities.
c. Joint efforts to rehabilitate war-affected areas for the restoration, reconstruction and modernisation of cities and residential areas.
d. Infrastructure development.
e. Extraction of minerals and natural resources.
f. The World Bank will develop a special financing package to accelerate these efforts.
13. Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy:
a. The lifting of sanctions will be discussed and agreed upon in stages and on a case-by-case basis.
b. The United States will enter into a long-term economic cooperation agreement for mutual development in the areas of energy, natural resources, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data centres, rare earth metal extraction projects in the Arctic, and other mutually beneficial corporate opportunities.
c. Russia will be invited to rejoin the G8.
14. Frozen funds will be used as follows:
$100 billion in frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine. The US will receive 50% of the profits from this venture. Europe will add $100 billion to increase the amount of investment available for Ukraine's reconstruction. Frozen European funds will be unfrozen. The remainder of the frozen Russian funds will be invested in a separate US-Russian investment vehicle that will implement joint projects in specific areas. This fund will be aimed at strengthening relations and increasing common interests to create a strong incentive not to return to conflict.
15. A joint American-Russian working group on security issues will be established to promote and ensure compliance with all provisions of this agreement.
16. Russia will enshrine in law its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine.
17. The United States and Russia will agree to extend the validity of treaties on the non-proliferation and control of nuclear weapons, including the START I Treaty.
18. Ukraine agrees to be a non-nuclear state in accordance with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
19. The Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant will be launched under the supervision of the IAEA, and the electricity produced will be distributed equally between Russia and Ukraine — 50:50.
20. Both countries undertake to implement educational programmes in schools and society aimed at promoting understanding and tolerance of different cultures and eliminating racism and prejudice:
a. Ukraine will adopt EU rules on religious tolerance and the protection of linguistic minorities.
b. Both countries will agree to abolish all discriminatory measures and guarantee the rights of Ukrainian and Russian media and education.
c. All Nazi ideology and activities must be rejected and prohibited.
21. Territories:
a. Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognised as de facto Russian, including by the United States.
b. Kherson and Zaporizhzhia will be frozen along the line of contact, which will mean de facto recognition along the line of contact.
c. Russia will relinquish other agreed territories it controls outside the five regions.
d. Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of Donetsk Oblast that they currently control, and this withdrawal zone will be considered a neutral demilitarised buffer zone, internationally recognised as territory belonging to the Russian Federation. Russian forces will not enter this demilitarised zone.
22. After agreeing on future territorial arrangements, both the Russian Federation and Ukraine undertake not to change these arrangements by force. Any security guarantees will not apply in the event of a breach of this commitment.
23. Russia will not prevent Ukraine from using the Dnieper River for commercial activities, and agreements will be reached on the free transport of grain across the Black Sea.
24. A humanitarian committee will be established to resolve outstanding issues:
a. All remaining prisoners and bodies will be exchanged on an ‘all for all’ basis.
b. All civilian detainees and hostages will be returned, including children.
c. A family reunification programme will be implemented.
d. Measures will be taken to alleviate the suffering of the victims of the conflict.
25. Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days.
26. All parties involved in this conflict will receive full amnesty for their actions during the war and agree not to make any claims or consider any complaints in the future.
27. This agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by the Peace Council, headed by President Donald J. Trump. Sanctions will be imposed for violations.
28. Once all parties agree to this memorandum, the ceasefire will take effect immediately after both sides retreat to agreed points to begin implementation of the agreement.
Mar 15 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
For 80 years, the United States government has believed government funded information distributed to people whose governments try to stifle that information--or punish those who obtain it--has been in the national interest.
This began with @VOA, which beamed its first broadcast into the Soviet Union in 1942. It expanded with @RFERL in the 1950s, each of which were initially run by CIA. The goal: send facts over the Iron Curtain to try and win the Cold War.
In the 1980s, the geography expanded: Radio Marti (today the Office of Cuba Broadcasting) reached into Communist Cuba, and @RadioFreeAsia began in the 1990s to reach Asian countries with poor media environments. After 9/11, it expanded to Arabic language Middle East Broadcasting Network, which includes @alhurranews.
And when the information started being blocked by government suppression technology, the US government created the @OpenTechFund, which funded software that allowed dissidents from Iran to China to Venezuela to communicate (@signalapp) and get around firewalls, and Frontline Media Fund, a brand-new incubator designed to create new content distribution, especially in Mandarin
That effort is beginning to end today.
All staff employees of @VOA and OCB (federal networks) have been placed on leave. Which means, effectively, they will cease to operate.
Dec 4, 2024 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
BREAKING: Chinese hackers known as Salt Typhoon compromised at least 8 telecommunications companies, deputy national security advisor @AnneNeuberger announced on a call with reporters, and “we do not believe any have fully removed the Chinese from their networks... Until they address their gaps, the Chinese will maintain their access.”
As the FBI has detailed, there are three baskets of victims: a wide-swath of Americans whose phone metadata was stolen; a very small group of individuals whose audio calls and text messages were specifically targeted and successfully intercepted (and all of whom have been notified); and the portal that law enforcement uses to submit court orders to telecommunications internet service providers.
Nov 18, 2024 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
Highlights of our @newshour interview with @JakeSullivan46:
Q: Two US officials confirm the administration gave Ukraine authorization to use ATACMS in Russia. Why?
A: "We don't have anything to announce or confirm on that today. So those remain unconfirmed reports. One thing I would point out, though, for context, is that Russia has just engaged in a massive escalation in this war. They have brought in a foreign army, North Korea, North Korean troops to the front lines of the battle. And that represents a sea change in the nature of this conflict."
Q: Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said if there were official confirmation, it would mean direct involvement of the US in the war--
A: "If the U.S. were to authorize the use of any weapon system, including this weapon system, it wouldn't mean direct U.S. participation in the war. It would mean a continuation of the policy we've had since the war began, which is that we supply the means to Ukraine to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity, and they fight the war."
Nov 8, 2024 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
BREAKING from @TheJusticeDept: Attorney General Merrick Garland: “The Justice Department has charged an asset of the Iranian regime who was tasked by the regime to direct a network of criminal associates to further Iran’s assassination plots against its targets, including President-elect Donald Trump.”
From the complaint:
"According to SHAKERI, in approximately mid-to-late September 2024, IRGC Official-I asked SHAKERI to put aside his other efforts on behalf of the IRGC and focus on surveilling, and, ultimately, assassinating, former President of the United States, Donald J. Trump ("Victim-4" herein) ...
Aug 16, 2024 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
NEW: Senior Administration official briefing reporters says an Iranian strike on Israel could bring "cataclysmic consequences":
"A major military attack--there's nothing that has happened that would justify such an act. We are prepared to counter, and defend Israel, should that come. But we would also encourage the Iranians--and I know many are--not to move down that road, because the consequences could be quite cataclysmic, particularly, for Iran."
On ceasefire talks, the official expressed guarded optimism that a deal can be made next week: "This process... is now in the end game"; “A deal that is ready to be closed"; “The package is basically there.”
Jun 18, 2024 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
From our @JakeSullivan46 interview:
US agreement with Ukraine allows Ukraine to fire US weapons into Russia across from Sumy:
"It extends to anywhere that Russian forces are coming across the border from the Russian side to the Ukrainian side to try to take additional Ukrainian territory... That's happened in Kharkiv. We have seen initial indications that Russia has made exploratory moves across in Sumy. And so it would apply there as well."
F-16s will be based inside Ukraine:
"The plan is to put the F-16s in Ukraine. And the Bilateral Security Agreement that @POTUS and @ZelenskyyUa signed reinforced this point, that we want to help Ukraine have this capability. It should be a capability based in Ukraine."
May 8, 2024 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
Senior administration official confirms the first known pause of weapons shipments to Israel:
"We have been engaging in a dialogue with Israel in our Strategic Consultative Group format on how they will meet the humanitarian needs of civilians in Rafah…
“and how to operate differently against Hamas there than they have elsewhere in Gaza. Those discussions are ongoing and have not fully addressed our concerns. As Israeli leaders seemed to approach a decision point on such an operation…
May 2, 2024 • 17 tweets • 3 min read
In his final interview after 3 years as @INDOPACOM Commander and a 40-year career, Adm. "Lung" Aquilino and I talk Philippines, Taiwan, Tik-Tok, regional balance of power:
"As I look at over my 3 years, the security environment has changed drastically, and not in a good way."
On Chinese water cannon, laser, boat attacks on Philippine Coast Guard:
"Chinese actions are certainly destabilizing to the region. They are putting at risk the Philippine Coast Guardsmen, sailors, and those fishermen that operate in their EEZ within full rights of Philippines"
Nov 22, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
NEW details from a senior administration official:
- This is a "full pause in military operations throughout Gaza," and the US hopes it will lead to a pause along the Lebanon border as well.
- The deal is expected to come with a "surge" in humanitarian supplies into Gaza.
- The intention of the first round was to release _all_ women and children, but Hamas indicated it could only deliver 50. Official said the deal is structured to "incentivize" Hamas to release all 90 or so women and children.
Nov 3, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Senior Administration official gave wide ranging briefing to reporters almost 4 weeks after #October7. Highlights:
Future of Gaza:
- “We want to see unified governance between West Bank and Gaza." Clearest reference yet to desire for Palestinian Authority to take over Gaza
Expectations for the next week:
- The @IDF air campaign will get less intense, IDF will focus more on the ground operation.
Sep 29, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
NSC Spokesman John Kirby just delivered an unusually specific warning about possible Serbian military action into Kosovo:
Kirby said this week's attack on police in northern Kosovo had "high level of sophistication and training" with “military grade” cache of weapons. “Not the kind of attack carried out randomly, or ad hoc… These kind of arms represent a threat to Kosovo, international personnel."
May 11, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
.@JakeSullivan46 met China's top diplomat in Vienna for 8 hours over 2 days, the highest level bilateral conversations since @SecBlinken canceled Beijing visit over the spy balloon incident. Senior administration official just briefed. Highlights:
The meeting was “really candid, substantive and constructive.”
On the balloon, official said, “We’re seeking to move beyond that.” Asked again, the official repeated the point: “We’re clear on the breach of sovereignty… but we are trying to look forward.”
May 11, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Significant @ZelenskyyUa: Ukraine doesn't have enough armored vehicles to launch counteroffensive yet.
“In terms of how motivated our military are, we’re ready. In terms of enough personnel in our brigades, we’re ready. In terms of our equipment, not everything has arrived yet…
"We’re still expecting some things. They will reinforce our counteroffensive. And most importantly, they will protect our people. We’re expecting armored vehicles. They arrive in batches...
Dec 17, 2022 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
NEW: Director @CIA Bill Burns tells @JudyWoodruff@TikTok is a threat to national security. "The parent company of TikTok is a Chinese company, the Chinese government is able to insist upon extracting the private data of a lot of TikTok users in this country...
"and also to shape the content of what goes on to TikTok, as well, to suit the interests of the Chinese leadership. I think those are real challenges and a source of real concern."
Dec 16, 2022 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Our interview with @INDOPACOM commander Adm. John Aquilino:
"This is about two incompatible visions for the future: free and open and a legacy of liberty, or authoritarian, closed, opaque, and a tradition of tyranny. That's the choice nations might have to make in the future."
On whether there is a sense of urgency on Taiwan: "We at @INDOPACOM need to move faster. We, the U.S. government, need to move faster."
Dec 2, 2022 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
NEW @G7 statement: "The G7 and Australia, as current members of the Price Cap Coalition, on 2 December 2022 reached consensus on a maximum price of 60 U.S. dollars per barrel for seaborne Russian-origin crude oil."
Which means the @G7, EU and Australia have agreed to something that has never been tried before: a cap on the price oil. Europe is putting energy on the table for the first time, and willing to play with a core commodity at the start of winter.
Nov 4, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Ahead of @DOD_Policy's discussion at @BrookingsInst today, our @newshour interview:
"For many of our adversaries, the salience of nuclear weapons is going up, not going down."
Why Admin failed to gain support for No First Use or Sole Purpose: "Our allies and partners that fall under the US nuclear umbrella worry about a host of strategic threats. They see the US nuclear commitment as fundamental to the extended deterrence commitment we have made...
Sep 17, 2022 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Our @newshour interview with @DmytroKuleba: "I have to be ready to talk even with the devil... But I'm also a human being... After everything Russia has done... I have a strong feeling the best negotiating table with Russia is the battlefield."
Kuleba tells me Kyiv would view any diplomacy initiated by Russia skeptically:
"The moment we will hear from Putin or someone from his entourage that they want to engage in talks, we shouldn't rush to respond positively to it...
Sep 10, 2022 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
NEW: In an interview at @yes_ukraine, @oleksiireznikov tells me Ukrainian forces have not yet entered Izium, "but our troops are very close." Says Ukrainian forces have liberated 1200 square kilometers / 460 square miles in Kharkiv.
.@oleksiireznikov vows the offensive will continue: "We can move down on the map in the direction in Luhansk Oblast also, so it can help us to liberate the next territory."