Armchair Warlord Profile picture
May 2, 2024 13 tweets 6 min read Read on X
By popular demand, I'm writing a listicle - my top ten US military acquisition disasters of the 21st century.

It's a little distressing that I have so much material to work with.⬇️ Image
This list is largely informed by two factors - taxpayer money wasted and capabilities not delivered. So despite my catchy F-32 frontispiece above, the F-35 didn't actually make the list because despite being very expensive the program delivered working hardware.
Number 10: the VH-71 Kestrel

You think it'd be easy to design a VIP version of an AW101, but the DoD managed to make an off the shelf design cost $400M each.

Cancelled in 2009 after sinking $4.4B; sane program management got the replacement VH-92 in at a third of the unit cost.
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Number 9: the X-47B

This was actually a program that was successful - too successful in fact, because the Navy cancelled it lest they threaten the Fighter Mafia's jobs.

The Navy's new MQ-25 Stingray has been relegated to tanker duty instead of glamorous long-range strike.
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Number 8: the XM2001 Crusader

The US Army had a world-beating howitzer in 2001, and Donald Rumsfeld cancelled it because it wasn't transformative enough or something.

Y'know where Crusader would have been really useful? Europe, right now, because the new war is the old war. Image
Number 7: the Joint Tactical Radio System

How hard is it to procure some new radios? Really hard apparently, the Army sank $6 billion into an expansive software-defined radio program that failed to produce anything usable before finally cancelling it in 2012. Image
Number 6: the Ground Combat Vehicle

The Army's excessive requirements doomed this post-Iraq program to replace the aging Bradley fleet. The designs submitted - designed to carry full infantry squads and survive basically all foreseeable threats - weighed as much as 84 tons.
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Number 5: the RAH-66 Comanche

The Army sank almost $7 billion in 1990s money into developing this stealth reconnaissance-attack helicopter and then proceeded to not buy it on cost grounds.

Much like Crusader, some of these would be really useful in Europe right about now.Image
Number 4: the Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle

The US Marines identified exactly what was needed for the amphibious APC of the future, spent $3 billion developing it, and then saw it cancelled on cost grounds.

Y'know who paid attention? The Chinese - and they paid for theirs!
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Number 3: Future Combat Systems

The US Army sank $14 billion on this early-2000s program to build the brigade of the future.

NOTHING usable came out of it, although the "interim" future brigade - the Stryker BCT - rather amusingly became a mainstay of the Army for a generation.
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Number 2: The Zumwalt-class destroyer

The US Navy spent $20+ billion to build three ultimate gun destroyers to fill naval gunfire requirements and then refused to buy ammo for them.

Now they're replacing the guns with silos for hypersonic missiles that probably don't work.Image
Number 1: the Littoral Combat Ship

This program is like a fractal of failure, all the individual parts are as dire as the whole.

Imagine buying 32 ships from two manufacturers and then scrapping them all immediately because they can't fight anything scarier than pirates.
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Through all of this, of course, a couple constants:
1. Nobody got fired
2. The contractors got rich anyways

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More from @ArmchairW

Apr 27
Breaking the "Drone Wall"

The latest talking point out of the Ukrainian side is that they don't really need NATO's support any more because they have tons of kill drones and they're so incredibly lethal that's enough to hold off the Russians indefinitely.

Let's examine this.⬇️

First of all, let's examine the kill drone as a weapon system. Generally known as FPV drones, or as I prefer to call them, antitank drones, these are small, simple quadcopter drones equipped with a camera, a radio or wire communications system, and an explosive warhead.

This makes for a new type of weapon system that, rather than being extremely powerful at face value, gains its effectiveness through a combination of smart guidance and ubiquity. They do three things that prewar "legacy" antitank systems do not:

1. They have extremely precise guidance and can be maneuvered to attack weak points on an armored target or pursue dismounted troops into cover;

2. They have onboard sensors and sustained flight capability, and are capable of not just attacking targets outside of the operator's line of sight but actively conducting reconnaissance; and

3. They are relatively light and cheap, with two or three kill drones fitting into the size and weight factor of a single old-style antitank missile, and thousands of drones stamped out in Chinese factories daily on no-questions-asked contracts to be jury-rigged to ubiquitous Soviet-era antitank warheads.

These weapons do, however, have drawbacks compared to conventional antitank systems.

1. Radio-controlled models are vulnerable to electronic countermeasures;

2. They have limited lift capability and as such their warheads are generally relatively weak, often simply repurposed single-stage RPG-7 shells or purpose-built charges that are little better;

3. They fly relatively slowly and can be, and frequently are, defeated successfully by defensive fire from determined dismounted troops; and

4. They "fire" extremely slowly, as each drone must be manually prepped, linked to a command system, checked out, flown out to a target that could be several kilometers away, and then carefully maneuvered into the target for maximum effect. The rate of fire for a single drone team is thus measured in minutes per round rather than rounds per minute. Engagements where you see multiple drones hit in quick succession are the result of multiple teams attacking a single target or group of targets.

The Russians and to a lesser extent the Ukrainians have implemented countermeasures to lessen their forces' vulnerability to these weapons, generally consisting of ECM systems, defensive fire (skeet shooting has become a matter of great tactical relevance lately), and elaborate "cope caging" that would have drawn extreme mockery a few years ago and which still does in the circles of people who aren't going to survive the first battle of the next war. As such, the probability of kill (PK) of a given antitank drone launch at the moment is, optimistically, about 10% against an appropriately prepared armored vehicle.

And now, my readers, we see the inherent weakness of a military doctrine centered around these weapons. Recall what I previously said about the slow rate of fire of drone teams and compare it to the low PK to be expected of any system which an adaptive enemy has had a chance to respond to. Assuming a PK of about 8% and a five-minute engagement cycle, any given Russian armored vehicle can expect to have about one "drone-hour" of combat lifetime under attack by these systems. Thus a single vehicle being engaged by six teams, for instance, can expect to last ten minutes before being knocked out.

This combat model is borne out by numerous engagements in which Russian units have pushed through drone attack with few to modest losses despite clearly being under attack by multiple teams for extended periods of time. The "drone wall" tactic does, however, create a sufficiently dense swarm of drones at the point of contact to render advances at the platoon level largely a matter of luck and deliberate company-scale attacks a bloody proposition for the chance of little ground gained.

What about larger-scale attacks, though?

Let's run a little wargame. In this scenario, a Ukrainian division (let's say one of their new "tactical corps" that's effectively a divisional unit) is defending against a Russian divisional attack. The Ukrainian unit has deployed into a formation designed to maximize the intensity of antitank drone fire to be directed against an attack at any point on the front - very similar to AFU deployments on the ground right now - with two defensive lines of dismounted infantry in closely-spaced strongpoints and a final "line" of mechanized reserves to bottle up any breakthroughs. A mechanized Russian division has been tasked to smash its way through.

The exact geometry is also noted on the graphic below, but I'll state it here for completeness' sake - the AFU division is occupying a 27km front with three brigades each occupying nine kilometers. The two infantry defensive lines are each composed of platoon strongpoints located one kilometer apart, with the second line positioned three kilometers to the rear of the first line and able to support it with drone fire under intense combat conditions.

A few notes on the rules here.

1. Every Ukrainian strongpoint is assumed to contain one drone team with an engagement range under "assault" conditions of five kilometers. Each team will fire once every five minutes. Firing strongpoints will be marked with a red box in the graphics.

2. As I pointed out above, Russian vehicles have a combat lifespan of one "drone-hour." As such it will take twelve "shots" from a single drone team to kill a vehicle, or one shot from twelve drone teams.

3. I am assuming that a Russian unit will take 30 minutes to move 3-5 kilometers tactically, accounting for en-route mine clearance, etc. Moving through cleared areas will of course be quite fast.

4. Ukrainian strongpoints attacked from the front must be deliberately assaulted, which will take 30 minutes at 3:1 odds. Strongpoints that have been flanked can be hastily assaulted in the same turn as movement.

5. Ukrainian strongpoints in close combat with superior Russian units are suppressed and cannot fly off drones. This will be marked with a black box in the graphics.

6. Ukrainian artillery has largely been silenced and the Russians have stiff fire superiority and their own drones searching the battlefield. Once a Ukrainian drone team opens fire it will be spotted and destroyed by Russian indirect fire within two hours. Strongpoints with dead drone teams will be crossed out and will not fire, but must still be assaulted and cleared of their infantry for the Russians to progress.

7. The Ukrainian reserves cannot simply blitz to the breakthrough sector - they must be alerted and then move out, under attack by Russian interdiction fires and clearing scatter-mine obstacles on the way. Thus they are going to move relatively slowly.

8. The Russians have achieved operational surprise and there is no large AFU reserve force waiting for the assault. This isn't particularly unusual, a similar situation occurred at the start of the Battle of Avdeevka and the Kharkov incursion last year. The Russians seem to be able to pretty reliably mass large forces for operations if need be, without Ukraine or NATO intelligence noticing.

Simple enough? Maybe I should put in an application at Milton-Bradley!

Let's begin - I'll now transition to thread format.⬇️Image
Here we see the initial battlefield set. Of note, I'm depicting the Russians tactically by company but will be keeping a more precise tally of assault vehicles destroyed. Russian company icons will be removed as appropriate.

The little ovals are Ukrainian battle positions. Image
Dust rises on the war-torn steppe as a huge assault force rolls into view - an entire Russian battalion coming on out of the Russian line some way to the south.

The five closest strongpoints launch drones as artillery begins hammering down across the defensive line. Image
Read 14 tweets
Jan 8
The closest historical analogy to the Ukrainian War I can think of is the American Civil War - ironically a conflict that Europeans have always shied away from carefully studying.

A thread.⬇️ Image
The underlying causes of the American Civil War festered for decades, finally erupting into open conflict after a series of political calculations and miscalculations brought down a national compromise that increasingly resembled a house of cards. Image
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Ditto Ukraine. I've said elsewhere the number of political offramps available to Western leaders to avoid this war were so numerous that the fact war broke out can only be explained as the result of anti-Russian policy - clearly miscalculated policy given the results thus far. Image
Read 22 tweets
Oct 15, 2024
Let's bust some propaganda.

Top 10 pro-Ukrainian talking points - and why they're nonsense.⬇️ Image
10. Ukraine is a democracy!

False. The last free and fair election in Ukraine - not held under an ultranationalist jackboot after the 2014 coup - was in 2010.

All elections in Ukraine have been suspended since 2022, and Zelensky's five-year term from 2019 expired months ago. Image
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9. Russia is an autocracy!

False. Vladimir Putin and United Russia enjoy approval ratings among the Russian public that are extremely high, even in polling conducted by Western-backed, anti-Putin organizations.

Putin is popular enough to win any election held in Russia handily. Image
Read 13 tweets
Sep 15, 2024
How many plans has NATO gone through to try to beat Russia in Ukraine?

Let's count 'em! Image
Plan A: The FGM-148 Javelin

It seems absurd now, but in late 2021 NATO's leadership thought Javelin was a tank-deleting magic wand that would deter Putin from challenging Zelensky's scheme to conquer the LDPR.

Javelin failed in service and is a rare sight on the battlefield. Image
Plan B: The Kazakh Gambit

The West quite obviously fomented an uprising in Kazakhstan in January 2022 in hopes of distracting Russia from the then-boiling Ukrainian crisis.

Didn't work. CSTO troops arrived and helped the Kazakh government crush the would-be color revolution. Image
Read 16 tweets
Aug 18, 2024
Anatomy of a Fiasco: The Bridge at Glushkovo

Late last week the Ukrainian command, seeing their offensive in Sudzha-Koronevo bog down, tried to expand the flanks of their salient into Russian territory in Kursk. Part of this was an attack on the Glushkovo district to the west. Image
The Glushkovo District is somewhat isolated from the Russian interior by the Seim River.

Having learned the wrong lessons from their 2022 counteroffensive in Kherson, the AFU command decided to try to induce a wholesale Russian withdrawal by attacking the bridges over the Seim. Image
The large road bridge at Glushkovo, the district center, would be their first target. As in Kherson two years ago, HIMARS fired on the bridge with GMLRS. As in Kherson two years ago, it was ineffective.

Unlike in Kherson two years ago, the Russians killed the HIMARS launcher.
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Read 8 tweets
Aug 16, 2024
Today was probably the worst day for the Armed Forces of Ukraine since February 2022.

Let's walk through it.

The Russians started the day off by destroying two HIMARS launchers at their hide site in Sumy. This has likely ended GMLRS support for the Kursk operation temporarily.

Next to emerge was a video of a MiG-29* struck at an airfield near Dnipropetrovsk, just as it was being armed and the pilot had climbed in for preflight.

Once again the Russians coldly waited to cause maximum casualties among key AFU personnel.

* initially reported as an Su-24
13 Ukrainian soldiers were caught on camera surrendering in Kursk, and today was the first day I didn't even hear substantive rumors of new AFU advances in the area. Instead they seem to have lost considerable ground.
Read 12 tweets

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