By popular demand, I'm writing a listicle - my top ten US military acquisition disasters of the 21st century.
It's a little distressing that I have so much material to work with.⬇️
This list is largely informed by two factors - taxpayer money wasted and capabilities not delivered. So despite my catchy F-32 frontispiece above, the F-35 didn't actually make the list because despite being very expensive the program delivered working hardware.
Number 10: the VH-71 Kestrel
You think it'd be easy to design a VIP version of an AW101, but the DoD managed to make an off the shelf design cost $400M each.
Cancelled in 2009 after sinking $4.4B; sane program management got the replacement VH-92 in at a third of the unit cost.
Number 9: the X-47B
This was actually a program that was successful - too successful in fact, because the Navy cancelled it lest they threaten the Fighter Mafia's jobs.
The Navy's new MQ-25 Stingray has been relegated to tanker duty instead of glamorous long-range strike.
Number 8: the XM2001 Crusader
The US Army had a world-beating howitzer in 2001, and Donald Rumsfeld cancelled it because it wasn't transformative enough or something.
Y'know where Crusader would have been really useful? Europe, right now, because the new war is the old war.
Number 7: the Joint Tactical Radio System
How hard is it to procure some new radios? Really hard apparently, the Army sank $6 billion into an expansive software-defined radio program that failed to produce anything usable before finally cancelling it in 2012.
Number 6: the Ground Combat Vehicle
The Army's excessive requirements doomed this post-Iraq program to replace the aging Bradley fleet. The designs submitted - designed to carry full infantry squads and survive basically all foreseeable threats - weighed as much as 84 tons.
Number 5: the RAH-66 Comanche
The Army sank almost $7 billion in 1990s money into developing this stealth reconnaissance-attack helicopter and then proceeded to not buy it on cost grounds.
Much like Crusader, some of these would be really useful in Europe right about now.
Number 4: the Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle
The US Marines identified exactly what was needed for the amphibious APC of the future, spent $3 billion developing it, and then saw it cancelled on cost grounds.
Y'know who paid attention? The Chinese - and they paid for theirs!
Number 3: Future Combat Systems
The US Army sank $14 billion on this early-2000s program to build the brigade of the future.
NOTHING usable came out of it, although the "interim" future brigade - the Stryker BCT - rather amusingly became a mainstay of the Army for a generation.
Number 2: The Zumwalt-class destroyer
The US Navy spent $20+ billion to build three ultimate gun destroyers to fill naval gunfire requirements and then refused to buy ammo for them.
Now they're replacing the guns with silos for hypersonic missiles that probably don't work.
Number 1: the Littoral Combat Ship
This program is like a fractal of failure, all the individual parts are as dire as the whole.
Imagine buying 32 ships from two manufacturers and then scrapping them all immediately because they can't fight anything scarier than pirates.
Through all of this, of course, a couple constants: 1. Nobody got fired 2. The contractors got rich anyways
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The Russians have lost around a thousand tanks in Ukraine during the war thus far.
Oh, you want an explanation? Okay. Thread. ⬇️
There has been a problem in estimating Russian vehicle losses since the first hours of the war - Ukrainian propagandists have flooded the internet with dodgy pictures of destroyed Soviet-era vehicles, claimed as Russian. I got started debunking them.
It occurred to me recently, though, that there's a way to "back out" Russian vehicle losses from far better-confirmed data for Russian personnel losses. According to Mediazona's ongoing count there have been 724 Russian tankers killed in the war to date.
Palestinian forces - belonging to Hamas and other armed groups in the Gaza enclave - stormed the perimeter defenses yesterday morning local time, catching the IDF entirely off-guard. The front line has yet to stabilize.
Israeli troops have begun to converge on the area and counterattack, so I do not expect the zone of Palestinian control to expand significantly, and absent external intervention they will likely be driven back into Gaza proper soon. However, that isn't the whole story.
The Palestinians took advantage of their initial breakthrough to flush commandos deep into the Israeli interior, where they have been wreaking havoc for the past two days.
Video of a "road of death" in southern Israel, my understanding is the aftermath of a Gazan attack.
"Dozens" of Ukrainian soldiers surrendering north of Klescheevka, apparently around 48.552153, 37.960711. Probably the remnants of a whole company.
Very much calls into question their recent claims of success in the area and the motivation of their troops.
Location on the map. This is quite close to the location of an earlier, unsuccessful Russian attack so it seems the Russians regrouped and gave it another shot.
If Mediazona's count of Russian casualties in Ukraine is accurate - and it probably is - Russian losses tapered off over the month of August to the point they're now hardly worse than American ones at the height of the Iraq War.
This suggests the AFU is beginning to collapse. ⬇️
First of all the bottom line - Mediazona has confirmed a mere 133 Russian military deaths in the first three weeks of August (their data only goes to August 23rd right now). This is on top of a long-term downward trend in Russian casualties since the winter.
Mediazona's total count is slightly over 30,000 for the entire war right now.
How do I know it's accurate? Russian admissions. Recently Gen. Teplinsky, head of the VDV, stated that 8500 Russian paratroopers had been wounded and returned to duty over the course of the war.
Update and a little analysis on the attack on Pskov Airfield. ⬇️
First of all this was not a gimmicky operation with cheap drones. Loitering munitions of some kind were used - I personally suspect Switchblade 600s - fired in a large swarm with sophisticated EW support.
Switchblade 600 has a number of features that make it a good choice for this kind of operation - easy and fast setup, adequate range and speed, relatively small size with limited RCS, thermal, optical and audio signatures, and onboard optics allowing precision targeting and BDA.
Launched from Estonia, they would arrive on target at Pskov in less than 20 minutes. Given reports of 20 or more attacking drones, enough were launched to destroy every aircraft on the ramp at Pskov and inflict a devastating blow on the Russian Air Force.
For the last several months, commentators have endlessly talked about these tactically significant "heights" being fought over in Ukraine. Ukraine's pretty flat, so what are these exactly?
Let's talk about intervisibility lines, with a practical discussion about Rabotino. ⬇️
Militarily significant terrain features can be so subtle that you don't even notice them in daily life.
An intervisibility line is the line where you can see over the terrain feature you're standing on and into low ground beyond - essentially the top of any rise in the ground.
Let's look at a piece of flat agricultural land similar to that commonly found in Ukraine. It's pretty flat, but there's more than enough relief to hide troops and even vehicles