Thread by @Jonpy99

1/ Updated 2024 BTRZ count and analysis. This time with actual updated footage thanks to @Vishun_military and @waffentraeger.

2/ First of all here are the updated numbers of all BTRZs, plus the main Russian armor factories:

3/ Here is the prewar BTRZ count:

https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1765131251416248497

4/ And the BTRZ with 2022/2023 footage:

https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1777020676185977082

5/ By now you must have noticed that this time I also included the main Russian armor factories: Rubtsovsk (ARVs and refurbished/modernized BMP-1s), UVZ (T-90M + refurbished/,modernized T-90s and T-72s), Omsk (refurbished/modernized T-80s), Armazas (BTR-82s) and Kurgan (BMP-3s, BMD-4s, BMD-MDMs and refurbished/modernized BMP-2s).

6/ These also storage some armored vehicles, either because they are waiting to be shipped to the army or because they sent damaged/stored equipment of the same types that are produced there to be repaired there, so it's worth considering these factories too.

https://x.com/Vishun_military/status/1782875404312641892

7/ Here you have Vishun's estimates on Russian new production and refurbishment of armored vehicles:

8/ Let's first see how the 81st is doing. This one was always focused on repairing BTR-80s, and also modernizing them to BTR-82s. It's also possible that they are in charge of refurbishing old BTR-70s to the BTR-70M variant with diesel engines and BTR-80 rear hull section and turret, but I can't be sure about it.

https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/17770207242905030857/

9/ The 81st has always been very active and efficient. Because the most updated footage is from 16.05.2023 and it's so blurry, I instead opted to count recent ground footage of the 81st.

https://x.com/JohnH105/status/1784999276575154635

10/ I found 133 BTR-80s, including either some BTR-80s beinf refurbished to BTR-82s or actual BTR-82s (see the turrets). Also 1 BRDM-2 hiding among the BTRs. This facility keeps having a frantic workload. Here are where the BTR-80s from the 22nd storage base must be going to be refurbished.

https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1784519321135259998

11/ Then let's see how Arzamas Machine-Building Plant is doing. This one is the factory making BTR-82s. Despite a great rate of production, or precisely because of it, I only found 17 scrapped BTR hulls parked outside it.

12/ Next let's look at the 144th BTRZ. This one specializes in repairing BMDs and recently also BMP-2s.

https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1777020714446381077

13/ Now numbers of BMDs have increased dramatically here, waiting to be refurbished. Being the only placed specialized on BMD refurbishment has its drawbacks.

14/ I found 251 BMDs of different variants, plus 25 BMP-2s and 25 scrapped AFV hulls that have been sitting in the local scrapyard for years.

15/ The Volgograd Tractor Plant is half abandoned and production probably isn't that high, so it's no surprise that I didn't find any BMD parked outside.

18/ The BMD-1s from the 2544th are surely coming to the 144th to be turned into BMD-2s before being shipped to Ukraine.

https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1783918538865983880

19/ Next stop is what I think is the 71st BTRZ, a relatively recent repair plant that I covered previously.

https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1777020707584507917

20/ This time I didn't find any AFV here. In fact, I think it was just a mere coincidence that there were any the previous times, and this is just a truck rapir plant, as there are mostly trucks and other logistics vehicles stored here.

21/ It wouldn't be the first truck repair plant. The 206th BTRZ, closed down in 2012, was eventually reopened partially once all scrapped armor stored there was removed, and only to repair trucks.

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1112420205706309634

22/ Then another recently opened BTRZ is the 72nd. At this one I only found two tanks, and unfortunately footage is from July 2021, but based on its size I don't think the situation would be radically different at this BTRZ these days.

23/ The next BTRZ to look at is the 163rd. I'm afraid to say that I f*cked up counting this one the previous times. I somehow missed the actual armor repair plant and only looked at the local scrapyard.

https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1765131272706240633

24/ The actual BTRZ barely held any BMPs before the war, but the situation has changed. Now there are up to 340 BMPs waiting to be refurbished, plus 16 MT-LBs.

25/ The scrapyard barely saw any changes, just a few more destroyed BMPs parked here forever more.

26/ The next one is the 560th, this one with footage bought by Vishun. Let's just say that this one has always been a horror to count.

https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1777020699179147595

27/ Not much has changed here, mostly some tanks and a small number of BMPs being removed. I overcounted BTR-50s a lot the previous time because footage was so bad, now it's clear they are actually mostly BMPs.

28/ They have recently started to refurbish broken BMP hulls stored here.

29/ As usual X is messing with my threads, so now I have to keep posting each tweet one at a time. Please hold, I'm now taking a short smoke break.

30/ The next BTRZ to analyze is the 103rd. This one is mostly devoted to refurbish T-62s, but also other vehicles, mostly BMPs, but also ocassional BRDM-2s, MT-LBs and even BTR-50s and recently 2S1 Gvozdikas.

https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1777020689578377630

31/ This one is mostly devoted to refurbish T-62s, but also other vehicles, mostly BMPs, but also ocassional BRDM-2s, MT-LBs and even BTR-50s and recently 2S1 Gvozdikas.

33/ I once again recommend @Tatarigami_UA's analysis on the rate of T-62 refurbishment here. medium.com/@tim.dezitter/…

34/ This BTRZ keeps seeing an increase in the number of stored armor, specially T-62s, but also BMPs.

35/ Before looking at the last actual BTRZ, let's take a closer look at the Rubtsovsky Machine-Building Plant.

36/ This plant is tasked with building certain armored engineering vehicles, but also with modernizing BMP-1s to BMP-1AMs. I found 59 BMP-1s parked by May 2023 waiting to be modernized.

37/ The small number of confirmed BMP-1AM losses in Ukraine as counted by @Rebel44CZ points to the rate of modernization being pretty low. defence-blog.com/russian-army-r…

@Rebel44CZ 38/ Now we do take a look at the 61st BTRZ, one of the most famous ones.

https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1777020685279211586

39/ A lot of the prewar armor stored here was removed. According to @HighMarsed they had ~180 T-80BV and ~60 T80U/UD and some T-62/55. In the recent Russian documentary you can see tha there were ~60-80 damaged T-72B/B3, which points to them bringing equipment from Ukraine to be repared here.

@Rebel44CZ @HighMarsed 40/ Overall, many BMPs, tanks and BTRs, and even a single BTR-50 were unmothballed at some point, but the rest that were there before the war seem to be done and only used as spare parts donors, while more equipment arrives here to be repaired.

@Rebel44CZ @HighMarsed 41/ I forgot to say this about the 163rd, but it's location near Ukraine also points to that BTRZ being used mostly as a repair hub for equipment damaged in Ukraine.

@Rebel44CZ @HighMarsed 42/ Finally, let's see what's parked at Kurganmashzavod, Omsktransmash and Uralvagonzavod.

@Rebel44CZ @HighMarsed 43/ First, Kurgan. Vishun's analysis on this factory, which I posted early into this thread, already shows the big picture. I found 99 BMP-3s parked here, waiting to be repaired.

@Rebel44CZ @HighMarsed 44/ Second, Omsk. There were just a small number of T-80s parked at this factory waiting to be modernized into T-80BVMs before the war.

45/ The number increased like craze since late 2022. Now there are over 200 T-80s parked there, probably a mix of T-80Bs, BVs, Us and UDs. And Vishun's footage don't show a small spot to he left of the second picture that also hosted T-80s as of the latest public satellite footage.

@Rebel44CZ @HighMarsed 46/ T-80s are almost gone from storage, and at this point they're refurbishing even old T-80Bs. Yes, Bs, not even BVs.

https://x.com/AndreiBtvt/status/1781249216221786197

@Rebel44CZ @HighMarsed 47/ Finally, UVZ, the most massive tank factory in Russia, in charge of producing T-90Ms (among other armored vehicles) and also refurbishing old T-90/A/S to said T-90M variant and T-72s to the modern T-72B3 variant. I think I found 3 T-90s parked outside the factory.

48/ Nice insight on the Volgograd factory.

https://x.com/NadsDogs/status/1785977387856887957

49/ I knew I was forgetting something. Regarding what I consider scrapped equipment and what not, I decided to change my methodology.

50/ I consider scrapped equipment that which is stored in sections of BTRZs where only thoroughly broken armor is stored and hasn't been moved for years. This is because, due to the nature of the BTRZs as repair plants, obviously all equipment in them is broken in one way or another, but these in particular seem to be abandoned or destined to be spare parts donor.

51/ Now truly, I think that's it! If I forgot to post something else I'll post it as a follow up tweet on this thread haha. Other than that, I'll make a different thread on my estimates and projections on Russian new production and refurbishment of armor and how long they can keep up the war effort in Ukraine.

@ikerhgbis If anything, the number of equipment at BTRZs should keep increasing over time.

@Mk36destructor @RenounceReuse @Vishun_military @waffentraeger It's empty tho, has been since even before the war.